I think this may be one of the stupidest strings of words i’ve ever seen put in a row. How can you in the same breath say that the numbers dont support that someone is a good player and then say but the numbers are wrong he actually is?

Thanks Ed. I didn’t realize he had that many extra base hits in 75 games. He easily could have topped 75 in 162 games at that pace. I’m so glad you also pointed out the importance of OBP and SLG relative to where one bats in the lineup. It’s something that is surprisingly lost on many fans. In the old days they didn’t need calculators to determine that the players who get on base the most occupy the first two spots, followed by the teams best pure hitter, and then filling 4-6 with those who can drive the ball in the gaps and over the wall. Nothing has changed in over 100 years. As much as many want to believe they have reinvented the wheel, they haven’t. Lineups are still constructed basically the same way, and when some braniac managers try to do otherwise, they usually don’t last long in their jobs.

If he’s going to be a decent player, its going to be reflected in the numbers. What he did for the Mets was productive. No one is going to say that .311 / .340 / .480 or whatever he hit is poor. Its not. Its not outstanding, but its good. What we know about him moving forward:

A. He’s not going to walk.
B. He’s going to put the ball in play at an average rate

What we don’t know

1. How often balls in play are going to go for hits
2. How much power he’s going to hit for

All these things are readily explained by statistical analysis. And essentially, A and B are constants and 1 and 2 are variables. Depending on where the variables land, Francoeur will be somewhere between terrible and a tick above average. He could fall anywhere in that range. He won’t be better, but the jump in his HR/FB (which stabilizes to a correlation stronger than 0.70 after 300 PAs) can be discussed as a positive sign.

Take a look at his Bill James projections. .276 / .318 / .432. With defense even slightly below average, Frenchy would likely be worth the ~$5 mil he’s going to make in arbitration. He won’t be worth more than that unless his defense improves, which is not impossible. He’s not Adam Dunn and fielding data really doesn’t stabilize until about 450 games. In his last three seasons, Francoeur does have a 6.3 UZR, or 2.0 UZR/150. Or unless he has a BABIP greater than about .315. If he gets lucky enough to post another .340 BABIP, which is the extreme positive end of the range he’s shown in his career, he’s going to hit about .310 / .340 / .480 again. But if he’s a crappy fielder (entirely possible) or gets an unlucky BABIP in the .270-.280 range (again, entirely possible), odds are he won’t be worth his salary.

The conclusion of all this is that the expectation should be that he’s going to be a neutral value player relative to cost, and a positive value player relative to replacement level. Having a player like this on your roster doesn’t hurt you, unless you can do better on either of these two points (with a player not already on the roster, so not Angel Pagan). If you can do better, you’re costing yourself some opportunity, but I’m not sure its entirely clear that such a player exists. We can certainly debate a few names, but there isn’t a cut and dry, better value buy on the RF market at present. So, leave Frenchy where he is. Hope he plays good defense and gets lucky. And ignore people who talk about how cogently derived truths aren’t true at all.

Golfbone says:
November 14, 2009 at 2:40 pm

Francoeur was the Mets best player from the time he joined the team.
He hit for average, power, has a history of never getting hurt yet he played hurt when he did. He got clutch hits, constantly smiles, is a clubhouse leader, has the best arm in rightfield I’ve seen since Ellis Valentine and he’s only 25 years old. I think he has just as much potential as he ever did and would put him in a class just below David Wright in terms of what he could deliver if productive (if Wright ever gets his HR swing back). The Mets were incredibly lucky to steal him from the Braves who just wrecked this guy the way the Mets have wrecked so many people in the past.

HOW THE HELL CAN YOU PUT FRANCOEUR IN A CLASS BELOW DAVID WRIGHT???
David Wright is a star. Jeff Francoeur is replacement level

BtB just came out with UZR projections, using the last four years of data and a 5-4-3-2 regression model. Francoeur is projected at 1.5. It may not seem like much, but a defensive rating like that combined with the only current offensive projection I can find (James, .324 wOBA) really does put some distance between Frenchy and replacement level.

Why the Braves, which most of the media seems to believe to be a top notch organization when it comes to scouting and team building, would trade mid 20s Franceour for early 30s injury prone Ryan Church?

Like I feel like that in itself should raise red flags for them.

I am by no means a sabermatrician. I could barely spell that. As it is, I am just grasping the most basic of advanced statistics (A high WAR is a good thing, whatever WAR stands for [Wins above replacements?], and however it’s calculated), and I rely far more on the “traditional” baseball stats as of right now. That said, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out that what Francoeur did on the field when we got him is, more or less, an anomaly, and even still, it’s not as if he is an All-Star caliber player. He hit over .300, which is, asides for his own skill at hitting, attributed to the space in Citi Field, and the defense he’s up against. He hit ten home runs with us, which would be, if not for our power-starving year, not all that great for a starting outfielder. His K rate went down a tick, but it’s still horrendously high. He struck out nearly 5 times for every 1 walk he received though the year. Striking out is never good, but it’s “excusable” if you’re getting on base a lot, like in the case of Dunn. Francoeur, though, isn’t really even getting on base with his high K rate. He never expressed a willingness that I know of to change his plan at the plate, and that is why I have a dislike towards him (though it’s not as strong as a lot of other people here). Basically, he’s not good at getting on base, which is what his primary duty is, offensively. When told about that, instead of trying to get on base more, he basically laughed off his horrendous OBP. How does that help the team?