Beyond the Box Score UZR Projection Spreadsheet

Enjoy.

4 months ago Mark Himmelstein 13 comments 0 recs |

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A couple notables right off the bat

David Wright: -2.0
Jose Reyes: 2.3
Jeff Francoeur: 1.5
Matt Holliday: 4.9
Carlos Beltran: 2.0
Angel Pagan (LF): 0.6

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I looked all those up too

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm saving the link

For the first person who starts to wax about how much better Pagan is defensively than Francoeur. Viva La Frenchy!

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's still only a projection

I’d take Pagan over Francoeur in right any day. Plus, that’s Pagan’s left and center field projection, not right/

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know

I just meant more as a way of showing their defensive projections aren’t THAT different.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One projection system doesn’t override last year’s data. Then again, I do understand there’s no real correlation year to year that could make any definitive judgments on either. All I know is Pagan was, and most likely WILL be better.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the point of a projection system.....

Is to give an objective estimate of who will likely be better. And for that you never want to base anything on only one years data. And that’s especially true of defensive stats.

That said, Pagan does still project as the better hitter, by a hair. At least according to the Bill James wOBA projections, the only ones posted yet at fangraphs, Pagan .327, Francoeur .324.

translating to WAR:

(.327-.330)/1.15*600+0.6+20-7.5=11.5 or 1.15 WAR for Pagan
(.324-.330)/1.15*600+1.5+20-7.5=10.9 or 1.09 WAR for Francoeur

by acerimusdux on Nov 15, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-4.2 for Castillo

-2.3 for Hudson

by Sokojoe on Nov 14, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Uggla

-3.4

Defense is weird. Some guys win gold gloves because they can hit, while others are unacceptably bad defenders because they can hit. I’ll never understand it.

by acerimusdux on Nov 15, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uggla's awful All-Star Game 2 years ago

goes a long way towards the perception of him as an awful fielder. He’s not great, but that was probably the worst defensive game of his life, but I think most people assume he’s like that all the time

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Nov 15, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

America needs better stats than UZR and +/- bad

The variation from year to year within a single player’s dataset is astounding.

Is it simply impossible to collect enough fielding data in a single season to draw conclusions about performance?

UZR, more often than not, confirms our eyes and scouting reports but there’s a fishy smell to everything it reports.

by TheBigStapler on Nov 15, 2009 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

UZR and +/- is the best so far

I’m sure that better systems are being developed, like the one Alan Schwarz wrote about in the summer.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 15, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's impossible to get better stats given the quality of data available right now

You’re wrong though. The year to year variation of UZR is basically the same as wOBA.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-2008-to-2009/

If you have 3 years of UZR, and can supplement it with the fans scouting report, or other forms of qualitative data, you have a damn good estimate of a players defensive value.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs