Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Knicks 90, Raptors 87: "Shump and Lin wouldn't let us lose."

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

A couple notables right off the bat

David Wright: -2.0
Jose Reyes: 2.3
Jeff Francoeur: 1.5
Matt Holliday: 4.9
Carlos Beltran: 2.0
Angel Pagan (LF): 0.6

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

I looked all those up too

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm saving the link

For the first person who starts to wax about how much better Pagan is defensively than Francoeur. Viva La Frenchy!

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It's still only a projection

I’d take Pagan over Francoeur in right any day. Plus, that’s Pagan’s left and center field projection, not right/

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I know

I just meant more as a way of showing their defensive projections aren’t THAT different.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 14, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

But still

One projection system doesn’t override last year’s data. Then again, I do understand there’s no real correlation year to year that could make any definitive judgments on either. All I know is Pagan was, and most likely WILL be better.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

the point of a projection system.....

Is to give an objective estimate of who will likely be better. And for that you never want to base anything on only one years data. And that’s especially true of defensive stats.

That said, Pagan does still project as the better hitter, by a hair. At least according to the Bill James wOBA projections, the only ones posted yet at fangraphs, Pagan .327, Francoeur .324.

translating to WAR:

(.327-.330)/1.15*600+0.6+20-7.5=11.5 or 1.15 WAR for Pagan
(.324-.330)/1.15*600+1.5+20-7.5=10.9 or 1.09 WAR for Francoeur

by acerimusdux on Nov 15, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Uggla

-3.4

Defense is weird. Some guys win gold gloves because they can hit, while others are unacceptably bad defenders because they can hit. I’ll never understand it.

by acerimusdux on Nov 15, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Uggla's awful All-Star Game 2 years ago

goes a long way towards the perception of him as an awful fielder. He’s not great, but that was probably the worst defensive game of his life, but I think most people assume he’s like that all the time

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Nov 15, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

America needs better stats than UZR and +/- bad

The variation from year to year within a single player’s dataset is astounding.

Is it simply impossible to collect enough fielding data in a single season to draw conclusions about performance?

UZR, more often than not, confirms our eyes and scouting reports but there’s a fishy smell to everything it reports.

by TheBigStapler on Nov 15, 2009 9:39 AM EST reply actions  

UZR and +/- is the best so far

I’m sure that better systems are being developed, like the one Alan Schwarz wrote about in the summer.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 15, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

It's impossible to get better stats given the quality of data available right now

You’re wrong though. The year to year variation of UZR is basically the same as wOBA.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-2008-to-2009/

If you have 3 years of UZR, and can supplement it with the fans scouting report, or other forms of qualitative data, you have a damn good estimate of a players defensive value.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Ctm-logo_small
My dirty little secret: I was once a Yankees fan
Awesome_small
Sabermetrics and Me: Drowning in Objectivity
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #3

Recent FanPosts

Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #7
159714144_040c6c1501_small
Varieties of Baseball Experience
Small
Am I crazy?..
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #6
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #5
X-wing_small
BrooksBaseball Player Cards: An Amazing Resource For Mets Fans Who Are Curious About How Pitchers Pitch In The Major Leagues
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #4
Small
Sandy Alderson, @MetsGM, and getting ready for Spring Training

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Judging by the comments to Matt Callan’s ode to 1986 Mets: A Year To Remember from a few weeks back, the video has a devoted Mets fan following. Despite being too young to remember anything about that season, it has a special place in my fandom as well. It was part of a two video rotation (Ghostbusters being the other) which ran almost daily on my television for a few years in the early 90s. And it remained a once-in-awhile watch through high school and college. 

Unsurprisingly, the physical tape deteriorated over time, and the screen jumps and sound skips made for a less than optimal viewing experience. With sale of the video discontinued, my brother converted it to DVD and gave it to me for Christmas in 2010. See the picture above for the box and DVD. He even created a scene selection function which can be accessed from the main menu. "Get Metsmerized!" plays on loop on the menu screen. It is my favorite Christmas gift ever and is still nice to throw on for a viewing.

"How'd we do it? Mirrors!"
I was flipping through some of my parents' photo albums this afternoon in search of one particular shot of the sign my older sister made for Mets Banner Day back in the late eighties. Though I didn't find that one — I'll post it when I eventually track it down, and I can assure you that it's Keith-themed — but I did stumble upon this wonderful photo of my younger sister's stuffed animal menagerie spread out in front of a glorious rainbow-festooned Mets pennant, also from the late eighties.

She works for the HRC now and was particularly delighted to be reminded of this photo.

(click to embiggen)

Recent FanShots

Mets Expected To watch Scott Kazmir Pitch
Dickey is # 2 defensive pitcher
Yahoo Sports comments on Sandy's Tweets
Using hindsight to redo the Mets’ offseason | Mets360
Cespedes to the Athletics
Kevin Goldstein Top 101
Okay, there is no way this is Sandy Alderson
Ike & Duda fantasy stocks rising
Sabermetrics! Fantasy League is live.
What if the Mets Never Traded for Johan Santana? | Patrick Flood

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Ctm-logo_small
My dirty little secret: I was once a Yankees fan
Awesome_small
Sabermetrics and Me: Drowning in Objectivity
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #3

Recent FanPosts

Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #7
159714144_040c6c1501_small
Varieties of Baseball Experience
Small
Am I crazy?..
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #6
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #5
X-wing_small
BrooksBaseball Player Cards: An Amazing Resource For Mets Fans Who Are Curious About How Pitchers Pitch In The Major Leagues
Mets002_small
2012 AA Prospects List #4
Small
Sandy Alderson, @MetsGM, and getting ready for Spring Training

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Endy_small Rob Castellano

Img_1262_small Matthew Artus

Kanye_pekka_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

Metsstitches_small Eno Sarris

48900_1085732804_4466_n_small Chris McShane

Lg_rocker_ap_small Matthew Callan

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

THE NEWS GURUS

Mrmet_small Steve Schreiber

3_small Stephen Schmidt

159714144_040c6c1501_small Pack Bringley

124967042_crop_340x234_small Jeffrey Paternostro