AAOP: Time for a new "Core"

Overall goals:  Seriously upgrade the defense, add more power, build a deeper bench.

Blockbuster 3-way trade between Mets, Tampa Bay and Boston:  Mets give up Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Bobby Parnell, Tim Redding, and Pedro Feliciano, Fernando Martinez, Jeff Francoeur and Daniel Murphy, get Dustin Pedroia from the Red Sox and Carl Crawford and Pat Burrell from Rays.  Sox give up Pedroia, Mike Lowell and cash, get Reyes, Wright, Castillo, Murphy and Martinez.  Rays give up Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, get Mike Lowell, Bobby Parnell, Pedro Feliciano, Tim Redding, Jeff Francouer and cash.  Why the Mets would do it:  Pedroia provides awesome defense at second and a power bat, Crawford is the best fielding left fielder in baseball, gives us the opportunity to unload Castillo, Burrell is a trade chip (see below).  Why the Sox would do it:  They need a SS and offensive spark plug, Reyes is a marquee guy (“the most exciting player in baseball”).  Lowell is aging (35), his productivity was off and his defense was way off, and he made $12M - they need to clear his payroll so they can pay for Holliday or Bay.  Castillo backfills Pedroia (or is re-traded for someone else), Murphy provides a backup for 3B and 1B (or, again, a trade chip for Boston).  Martinez gives them a high potential talent in the wings to replace Drew (a $14M under-performer) in another year or two.  Why the Rays would do it:  They just exercised a one year option on Crawford for $10M, which gives them a year to either negotiate a long term deal for big money (difficult for a small market team) or get their best value for him on the trade market.  Their biggest needs are DH and rebuilding their bullpen; this gives them three solid relievers (one, Parnell, with great potential), Francoeur as a cheaper replacement outfielder, and a DH with power in Lowell, with Boston picking up part of his salary.  They also unload Burrell, their current DH, and his salary.

Blockbuster trade 2:  between Mets and Rangers, David Wright, Angel Pagan and Pat Burrell and cash for Nelson Cruz and Darren O’Day.  Why the Mets would do it:  Cruz is a great fielding Right Fielder (career UZR/150 11.0), hit .260 with 33 HR last year.  O’Day bolsters the bullpen.  Why the Rangers would do it:  Wright and Burrell together add more offense than Cruz, they have a surplus of pitching talent and can afford to let O’Day go. 

Free Agents:

Adam Everett (from Detroit) – former gold glove SS, defensive stud

Omar Vizquel (from Texas) – another infield defensive stud

Fernando Rodney (from Detroit) – RP who converted 37 of 38 save chances

Endy Chavez (from Seattle) – bring the glove back

Jason Marquis (from Colorado) Sinkerballer with a great defense behind him

Miguel Olivo (from Royals) –Catcher till Thole is ready, 20 HR

Carlos Delgado (IF he’s healthy, he can carry the team)

Nick Johnson (from Marlins) 1st base insurance

Craig Counsell (from Brewers) – backup infielder

Adrian Beltre (from Seattle) 3rd base

Starting lineup (salary):              2nd string

LF Carl Crawford (15.0)                      LF Nick Evans

RF Nelson Cruz                                   RF Endy Chavez

CF Beltran (18.5)                                 CF Endy Chavez

2B Pedroia (3.0)                                  2B Counsell

3B Adrian Beltre (5.0)                          3B Counsell / Vizquel

1B Delgado (3.5)                                 1B  Johnson

C Miguel Olivo (4.0)                            C Omir Santos

SS Everett (4.0)                                   SS Vizquel

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Bench:

OF Endy Chavez (2.5)

IF Omar Vizquel (1.0)

IF Craig Counsell (3.0)

OF / 1B Nick Evans (0.4)

C Omir Santos (0.4)

1B Nick Johnson (5.0)

Starting Rotation

Santana (21.0)

Marquis (5.0)

Pelfrey (5.3)

Perez (3.5)

Niese (0.4)

Bullpen:

K-rod (closer) (11.5)

Darren O’Day (0.4)

Rodney (5.0)

Maine (long relief / spot start) (2.8)

Fernando Nieve (0.4)

Brian Stokes (0.4)

Sean Green (0.4)

Total payroll ~ $122 million

It’s time to face facts:  the “core” Minaya built has failed to deliver success and it’s time to build a new core.  Shea stadium before, and Citifield even more, is a pitcher’s park, and any team to be successful has to have great defense.  Except for Beltran, the fielding of the current team ranges from average (Wright, Reyes) to awful (Castillo, Francouer).  Tinkering on the edges isn’t going to get it done, it’s time for a complete makeover.  Infield of Pedroia, Everett and Beltre and outfield of Crawford, Beltran, and Cruz will be one of the best defenses in baseball, making all of our pitchers vastly more effective.  Bench of Counsell, Vizquel, and Chavez means even if one of the front line goes down, the defense doesn’t skip a beat.  Marquis wants to pitch for Mets, as a sinkerballer with Everett and Pedroia behind him and cavernous Citifield with that outfield he will be tremendously effective.  With Thole in the wings, I wouldn’t spend a lot on a catcher, Olivo hit only .250 but over 20 HR for KC.  With a better line up in front of him, he might see more strikes and be a pleasant surprise; if not, he holds the fort until next season when Thole is ready.  Delgado is a crap shoot – if he is healthy he can carry the team, if not he’s just a potential long ball threat on the bench.  I get him and Nick Johnson and let them duke it out for starter and backup role in Spring training.  Rodney pitches the 9th if we’re behind, K-rod if we’re

ahead.  O’Day is our setup man.  Pedroia is under contract to the Sox a little cheaper than this, but assuming you would want to sign him to a very long term deal, he gets a small pay increase now that holds for two years until Beltran’s contract is up, then adjusts to market.  Wilmer Flores is the SS of the future when Everett’s playing days are done, I’d sign Everett to a 2 year contract.  Pedroia, Cruz, Beltre and Crawford are the “core” for the next decade.  We weaken the bullpen, but with that defense behind them my grandmother could be an effective pitcher.  Also, you might get more complete games as the starters don’t have to strike someone out to get an out and the defense turns hits into put-outs, so it should take a lot fewer pitches to get out of an inning, helping them to go deeper into the games. 

Even with the great defense, the lineup will still score a lot of runs.  Crawford is a 1st rate leadoff with

lots of speed at the top of the order.  His wOBA is .367, Cruz is .368, so odds of the thumpers having someone on base is very high. Beltran, Pedroia, Cruz, Beltre and Olivo all have the potential to hit 20+ HR and drive in 80-100+ runs.  If we’re lucky so can Delgado.  Johnson gives you a power bat on the bench, and the depth gives you lots of flexibility to pull double-switches late in the game and rest players periodically throughout the season.  You can’t expect to win 100+ of 160 games trotting out the same 8 guys every day; you wear them down and get injuries or late season burnout / collapse.  That’s the Joe Torre / Willie Randolph approach to management, and it killed us down the stretch in ’07 and ’08 and came home to roost with the injuries last year. 

I’d also hire a yoga instructor to work with the team on stretching out properly before practices and games.  Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman is my manager, someone with some passion.  I’d also take the money saved and pay whatever it takes to hire away the entire Marlins scouting and player development organization – somebody over there knows what they’re doing.