AAOP: The Supermets Offseason Plan

Cot's Baseball Contracts puts the Mets payroll at about $93M for 8 players. That leaves $58M to spend on trades, free agents, arbitration, and the $400k for all non-arbitration players.

Catcher:

There aren't very many good catcher options out there. I was on the Chris Snyder bandwagon for a while but at this point, I would prefer not to take the risk on a catcher with a big contract and back issues. Bengie Molina, though hated by everyone here, actually would not be a bad option if he would accept a contact of around 1 year, $4M. However, that is unlikely, so I'll go with a cheaper option, sign Gregg Zaun for 1 year, $3M. Expected WAR: 1.5

First Base:

I like Daniel Murphy. But we can't risk going with him again. I like Lyle Overbay and if that proposed Castillo/Overbay/Bradley trade was possible, I would definitely do it. But that seems unlikely, so I'm just going to trade for Lyle Overbay on his own. If we pay his whole salary, he should cost very little. Trade Eddie Kunz and Mike Antonini (or other minor league filler) for Lyle Overbay. Salary: $7M(2010 only). Expected WAR: 2.0

Second Base:

Luis Castillo has to go. If he were still a great fielder, I could deal with him. But he's not. Trade Luis Castillo to the Cubs for minor league filler. I don't think we would have to pay much salary, if any, but to be conservative, I'll say that the Mets pay $4M of Castillo's salary, $2M each year.

Now we need to acquire a 2B. I like Uggla's offense, but a good defensive second baseman would help the pitching staff - Pelfrey specifically - a lot. This leads me to sign Placido Polanco for 1 year, $5M. Total Salary: $7M (Polanco+Castillo). Expected WAR: 3.0

Short Stop:

Jose Reyes. We have to hope he has a comeback year. I'll be conservative with his WAR projection. Salary: $9.375M. Expected WAR: 4.0

Third Base:

David Wright. Hopefully he'll have a big year. Salary: $10.25M. Expected WAR: 5.5

Left Field:

I'm moving Carlos Beltran to LF. It's not that I don't think he can play CF, and in a different plan I would leave him there. It's just that he's not as good a fielder (at this point in his career) as the man I will bring in to play CF. Moving to LF will hopefully keep him healthy and productive offensively. Salary: $20M. Expected WAR: 5.0

Center Field:

I want to continue to have great defense in CF without sacrificing offense. The best solution is to sign Mike Cameron for 1 year, $10M. He has power that we need and he has a slightly above average OBP. Expected WAR: 3.5

Right Field:

I know everyone hates Francoeur, but I don't want to risk going with Pagan and having him fail. Jeff Francoeur will start the year as the starter with Pagan getting plenty of playing time, and if Francoeur is terrible, release him and make Pagan the starter. Do not give Frenchy an extension, just 1 year, $4M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bench:

Omir Santos will be the backup catcher. Salary: $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Daniel Murphy will be a backup CI and PH. Salary $.5M. Expected WAR: .5

Wilson Valdez will be the backup MI. Salary $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Fernando Tatis will be re-signed as the PH and utility man. Salary: $1.5M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Angel Pagan will be the backup OF (and caddy for Francoeur). Salary $1M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Starting Pitching:

1. Johan Santana. Not much else to say here. Salary: $21M. Expected WAR: 4.5

2. The Mets need to acquire a #2. The guys we have just aren't proven enough. I would sign Rich Harden to a 1 year, $10M contract with a team option for $13M for 2011. He doesn't stay healthy, but he should give us 130 to 150 very good innings. Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard could also be considered if someone else gives Harden more than 1 guaranteed year. Expected WAR: 3.0

3. We should acquire a #3 as well. I would look into Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo of the Reds. Both have big contracts, so they shouldn't cost much in a trade. However, both will expire after 2010, so they are not long-term commitments. I would prefer to trade for Harang because I think he will cost less because of his mediocre year last year. However, I would be fine replacing Harang with Arroyo in this scenario. Trade Scott Moviel and Nick Carr (or less if possible) for Aaron Harang. Salary: $12.5M. Expected WAR: 2.0

4. Here is where we fit in our own Mike Pelfrey. He should "improve" greatly this year with Overbay, Polanco, and Reyes in the infield. Salary: $.5M. Expected WAR: 2.0

5. Oliver Perez has to go here. He can't go to the bullpen and we need to hope he can have a decent year. He won't be worth $12M, but maybe he can be a capable fifth starter. If not, we'll have Jon Niese in AAA as depth. If Perez doesn't look good this spring, John Maine could win this job out of spring training. Salary: $12M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez will close. Hopefully he can do better on a better team in 2010. Salary: $12M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bobby Parnell did very well in the bullpen last year with a very high BABIP. He should improve next year. Salary: $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Pedro Feliciano will be back. Salary: $2M. Expected WAR: .5

John Maine gets a spot if he doesn't make the rotation. He will get some spot starts either way. Salary: $3M. Expected WAR: 1.0

I would re-sign JJ Putz for 1 year, $2M. As long as he is healthy he will be a good set-up man for this year. Expected WAR: .5 (with potential for more) (We must also pay Putz's buyout from last year which is $1M)

I would bring back Sean Green He was mediocre, but he finished the year well. Fernando Nieve, Brian Stokes, and Adam Bostick should be brought to ST to compete with him for the job. If Putz is unable to go or is not good, two of these four can make the team. Salary: $.5M. Expected WAR: .5

For this last spot I would sign a FA, Joe Beimel for $2M. He will be the second lefty out of the pen. Expected WAR: .5

This gives us the following team:

Reyes/Polanco/Wright/Beltran/Cameron/Overbay/Francoeur/Zaun/Pitcher

Santana/Harden/Harang/Pelfrey/Perez

K-rod/Putz/Parnell/Green/Maine/Feliciano/Beimel

Total Payroll: $150.325M. If this is too high for the Wilpons, we would probably have to go with in house for the bullpen instead of Beimel/Putz. Maybe an extra prospect would get the Reds to pay a couple million of Harang's deal. Overall, I think this payroll is appropriate.

Total WAR: 46 WAR. Add 47 for replacement level and you get 93 wins. Considering I was somewhat conservative in my projections, this allows for a bunch of things to go wrong and still make the playoffs.

EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention, another reason why I really like this plan. It leaves us with only Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Santana, Perez, K-rod having guaranteed money in 2011. We would have A LOT of money to spend next offseason when there is a much better FA class. We could have $50-$60 million to spend a year from now, possibly more if we don't bring back Reyes.