He’s had one bad season and this is still just a projection. It can’t account for everything.

It’s basically Pujols. Our third best hitter hasn’t even played in the majors yet!

I think maybe Chone is one of those projection engines that regresses everyone heavily. Nobody on the Red Sox is projected to have SLG > .500 either, for instance, and Holliday and Branyan are the only free agents projected to reach that level (not Bay).

it’s just a registry error, most of it is automatic

He named the projection system after Figgins, sorta like PECOTA being named after Bill Pecota.

So its probably just an accounting of how many games he missed this year into the projection. I’m not as big a fan of the CHONE projections overall as some of the others, but it does work really well for players who have been on a pretty consistent health/performance plane for a while.

Marcel is a simple regression based projection system that is “so easy a monkey can do it.” Basically it just takes weighted average of the past three years, applies regression to the mean and uses age factors. Thus, it really shouldn’t be better than other projection systems but rather used as a benchmark. There’s a number of articles that try to determine which projection system is “the best,” but as with most “the best” arguments, there’s subjectitivty involved. I like looking at all of them, just keep in mind James seems to always have a higher total offensive enviroment than the other projection systems thus making his pitcher projections look worse and batter look better so mental adjustments must be made.