AAOP-The simplest solution
Preamble - Too often the Mets management have made lots of moves that really don't make much sense for the long run or really address the team needs. All of the moves I am trying to make fall under the general scheme of plug holes with better players without giving up the farm system in trades or signing people to long bad contracts.
With the pitching staff I have a very specific goal, increase our starters IP/start. This has been the problem with the Mets since 2006. We have considerably over worked our bullpen every year. The only pitcher in our staff next year that can average over 6 IP per start is Santana, 6.6. Last year Big Pelf averaged 5.9 ip/start, Maine 5.4 and Ollie 4.7. Those were all down years granted, but oliver's best year was 6.1 and Maine's was 5.9. With a starting staff that can barely get through 5 there is no way to have a bullpen that stays strong throughout the season. We can expect more top 5 IPs per season from our bullpen if this trend continues. We know that during the Mets 2006 season the bullpen had a ridiculous WAR, there was a post on here awhile ago that showed this. By signing pitchers that can pitch over 6 and closer to 7 innings per game and stock pilling pitching depth we can save wear on our bullpen.
With the hitting I will attempt to improve our weakest positions without taking on too much payroll. Let's get too it.
Catcher: Last year our platoon of catchers provided little to no offense. Omir santos had a -7.3 hitting component to WAR and Schneider was even worse with a -15.3 hitting component to WAR. We can improve our hitting the most by getting a good hitting catcher. This year there are tons of freeagent catchers, but I want a trade. Ryan Doumit of the pittsburgh Pirates can be an all-star catcher. His 2008 season was phenomenal where he posted a 4.0 WAR and +15.3 hitting. Also Doumit can play first and some outfield and is due 3.5 mil in 2010 and 5.3 mill in 2011. He will not block T-Hole and can you imagine in June Doumit and Thole as our two catchers. The great thing about Ryan is that we can get him for relatively cheap. A trade that has super sub-Dan Murphey and Chris Carter I think could get it done. We could replace carter with Parnell or even throw in Omir in the trade if we need too. Lets say we trade Murp, Carter and Parnell, though I think this is a little more then it would take.
Doumit-3.5Mil
Santos-.4mil Thole will be called up in June on this team
First Base- This is another huge hole for us last year. Ike is our guy here, which is why we could trade carter, so we don't want to block him. He may be ready sooner rather then later as a platoon player so LETS RESIGN DELGADO. When healthy he should still be good for 30Hrs and 100RBIs. We can get him cheap and if he gets hurt we have Doumit, Ike/Nick Evans platoon or money left to make trades.
Delgado 1yr-5mil-8mil
Second base- Stuck with Louie nobody really wants him. Every other plan has some unrealistic trade for Overbay or Roy Hallady but I think we are stuck with him. Hopefully Jose's defense can make up for his lack of range. If Castillo gets on base like he did last year he will score a ton of runs in the 2010 Mets lineup.
Castillo 6mil
SS- I miss you so much Reyes please make my dreams come true by playing awesome in 2010 and winning an MVP.
Reyes 9 mil
3rd Base. Wright and Reyes back again. Side note on Wrights power decline, he had NO PROTECTION IN THE METS LINE-UP with all the injuries. We saw what Holliday did in oakland with no protection then had Pujous in Stl and that made a huge change in his numbers.
Wright-10 mil
CF-Only the best in the game, but I wouldn't mind moving him to a corner spot if the knees can't take it.
Beltran-18.5mil
RF- Bring back MIke Cameron, We can get him cheap he has great defense he can play center if Beltran can't. Cammy got pop and walks .340 OBP. Holliday was going to cost at least 20 mil everyone saying they are signing him for 17 is crazy it may take 21 or 22 mil to get him over 6 years I don't want that contract, although it is much better then some of the other contracts Omar gives out.
Cameron-1yr-5mil (Beltran better wear a helmet)
LF Pagan/Evans Platoon- Angel proved he can hit righties effectively last year. Evans mashes lefties lets put them together. Pagan has great defense. Imagine a defense of Beltran, Pagan and Killa Cameron.
Pagan-.6mil (i couln't find his contract info for 2010 but we signed him)
Evans-.4mil
Backups Adam Everett 2 year 4 mil Endy Chavez 3mil and Craig Counsell 2-mil
Offense payroll-65.4 Mil
On to the pitching staff
Santana -Best in baseball on second thought maybe second best, but still great.
21 mil
John Lackey- There are a lot of people hating on Lackey saying he is not worth the price. Lackey is still a very good pitcher who has the potential to earn a contract of 18 mil per year. Lackey has averaged 6.8, 6.8, 6.5 ip/start. He only walks 2-3 batter per start. Everyone is saying that he is declining and he is injury prone. He was mildly injured in 2008 and 2009, but last year he still made 27 starts and pitched 176 inning with a 3.9 WAR. That season alone was worth a 17.6mil contract. His last fully healthy years 2005-2007 he was a 5-6 WAR pitcher. His K/9 is steady at 7.2 and he doesn't walk people. I don't think it is unreasonable to expect a 4-5 WAR season from him. I think we can sign him for 5 years 86 mil. Now a smart GM will do things to make this contract more palpable for the team in the long run. I will be way under the 150 mil payroll which I will talk about later, so we could front load Lackeys contract giving him 20 mil the first year it makes the later years of him contract much easier to deal with and trade later. The last four year of his contract he will only be making 16mil. A smart GM would front load this deal for future flexibility.
Lackey-20 mil
Ben Sheets- He is an injury risk but when healthy he is one of the top pitchers in baseball. He has averaged 6-7ip/game many years when healthy. He can be had for cheap with an option for next year if he turns out be be a true baller. Sign him to a 1yr contract for 5mil a year with a 2011 option for 8mil.
Pelfrey-.5Mil - with reyes back and his slider (fast spinner/change-up) developing expect his numbers to improve.
Perez-12 mil worst contract in baseball, he can't consistently go five innings and he sucks, but he can't be worse then last year at least I hope.
Starting pitching = 58.5mil
Bullpen- First we need to move John Maine (2.5mil) to the bullpen. He can't pitch deep into games so the pen makes sense. He can start if we have injuries to Sheets, Lackey, or Perez is ineffective. We also will have Neise and Nieve in the minors to make starts if necessary. I am hoping that he could be the "set-up man"
Sign Darren Oliver 1yr 3mil/ option for 2011 at the same price. He was the key to 2006 we never should have let him go. Kelvim Escobar-2mil 1yr, this is another guy that maybe could start if we get hit with the injury bug. feliciano(1.9 mil) K-rod(11.5mil) green (.5mil) stokes (.4mil)
Bullpen 19.5mil
Total payroll 143.4 mil.
By keeping our payroll under the limit it gives us option during the year to trade for a bat or sign pitching if the circumstance presents itself. Too many people spend the entire payroll before team needs are really known. This payroll should give us flexibility to be a player in the 2011 freeagent market.
2010 mets line-up
1-Pagan
2-Reyes
3-Beltran
4-Wright
5-Degado
6-Doumit
7-Cameron
8-pitcher
9-Castillo
Pitching staff
Santana
Lackey
Sheets
Pelfrey
Perez
Bullpen
Maine
Escobar
Feliciano
Stokes
Green
K-rod
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4 comments
Comments
i like the simplicity, but still not lackey
cameron is great, i don’t hate the idea of delgado back, i like sheets and i like any plan that gives angel pagan a shot to start. i personally don’t want to trade for doumit for defensive reasons but your explanation is good (though i’d worry pittsburgh will completely hold up whoever wants him)
i’ve been pretty vocal in my dislike for lackey but you make some pretty good points about how he is still a good pitcher (which he is), how he hasn’t been that injury-prone and i like the front-loaded contract idea (which economically speaking is actually more lucrative for the player). however you’re making one big assumption in all this, that he won’t continue to regress; in fact you propose that he’ll actually improve. but considering that he just had consecutively the 2 worst/most injured seasons since hes become john lackey paired w/ the fact that he will be 32, right around the age that history has shown most pitchers start their career decline, it just seems illogical to assume he can do this for even another 2 seasons, let alone 5-6. i’d love him on the mets next year but it’s just not a wise investment.
by robcast23 on Nov 16, 2009 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Regression?
I wanted to put some of this in the post but over looked it. When I look at Lackey numbers I don’t see much regression, his fastball hasn’t lost velocity, his k/9 has stayed constant. His FIP has stayed pretty much the same with a slight increase 3.5 (2007) to 3.72 (2009). His bad 2008 year he had 15.3 HR/Fb suggesting he was unlucky. Also a switch to the NL should improve his numbers. Last year if he made 32 starts (full season) his WAR would have been at 4.8. I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect him to put up those numbers for at least two years in the NL. If we sign him to the right contract then he could be a pretty tradable asset after two years. I agree with you that 2011 is the right time to get into the pitchers market, but I don’t think signing Lackey prevents us from getting another pitcher is 2011. Especially if Oliver gets off to a good start and we can trade him. I think that signing Holliday may do more to prevent us getting in that pitching market then anything.
I had fun debating this Lackey idea with you Rob you make a lot of good points over the posts.
by Delgado on Nov 16, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like Lackey
because he can pitch 7 inning per start something that Harden and Bedard cannot do.
by Delgado on Nov 16, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to add in my plan
to kill Frenchy
by Delgado on Nov 16, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs























