AAOP: Lobby for Offseason Plan (long and hard)

When I sat down to write this plan, I asked myself "What would Omar do?" Then, I did the opposite. My plan is based around statistical analysis using freely available sites such as fangraphs, great deals for unlucky players, and a superstar or two. Without further ado...

Catcher: Dioner Navarro (trade)

It is no secret that Navarro had a down year last year for Tampa Bay, and that many were displeased with his work behind the plate. A closer look, however, reveals that his peripherals were very similar to his great 2008 season. The drop was on BABIP, which fell from .323 to .230. His LD% only shifted downward 4 or 5 percentage points, which could be attributed to scoring judgment differences. I believe that Navarro will come back to his mean and put up at least a 2 WAR season. Navarro would be a buy-low candidate and someone like Bobby Parnell should suffice to get him since the Rays are looking for cheap bullpen help.

First Base: David Wright

WHAT? D-Wright at first base? He won a gold glove!!! Unfortunately, UZR indicates that Wright's defense at third was atrocious last year. He had two positive seasons prior, but before that his UZR was also negative. Overall, a move to first base would probably help his defense where he could use his range to his advantage and less the negative impact of his arm. Overall, this would fill the void for 1B production while keeping decent defense.

Second Base: Felipe Lopez

After trading Luis Castillo to the dodgers for a minor prospect, Omar should not sign the "O-Dawg" and should instead sign Felipe Lopez to around a 1 year, $4 million deal. Lopez is better defensively than hudson (and Castillo) and is also better offensively. We can expect his numbers to regress slightly due to a .360 BABIP, but Lopez has a high LD% and can be expected to maintain a generally high BABIP based on career numbers. Additionally, he would be younger and cheaper than either O or Castillo.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes

Third Base: Chone Figgins

The Mets appear to be interested in Chone, which is a good thing. The problem is that they are interested in him for 2B and LF. His value comes as a third basemen, in which he is one of the best defensively in the league. Signing him to a 4 year, $40 million contract seems reasonable considering he has posted over $11 million in value since 2007. His skillset also translates long term, which would make him a good candidate for a long deal. He would improve the defense at third, and when comparing his numbers to Murphy's last year (since that is who he is replacing in the lineup), he would be an outstanding upgrading.

Left Field: Mike Cameron

Rather than sign Matt Holliday to a massive $150 million deal, signing Cameron to a 1 year, $7 million contract would be of a greater value and less of a risk. Cameron plays outstanding defense in center field, and when translated to left (or Beltran to left for that matter) would be a massively positive UZR, especially when compared to last year's Gary Sheffield. Cameron also is quite skillful with the bat, posting a WOBA over .330 since 1997 (and generally higher).

Center Field: Carlos Beltran

Right Field: Randy Winn

Unfortunately, Omar would never non-tender Grissionceour but in my fantasy world, Randy Winn would man right for the Mets next season. The past 2 seasons, Winn has posted a UZR over 13. Just by doing this, he is more valuable than Franceour. He was not excellent with the bat last season, but his peripherals were mostly consistent with prior years and it is not unreasonable to expect him to rebound. A 1 year, $4 million contract should suffice.

Starting Pitchers: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Rich Harden, Joel Piniero, Erik Bedard with Jon Niese as the fill-in

It is safe to assume Santana and Pelfrey will be back. The rest of the rotation will be filled out with free agents. Harden would probably sign for 2 years/$16 million. Piniero for 4 years/ $36 million. Bedard for 1 year/ $4 million. Harden and Bedard are injury prone which makes them signable. Injuries, however, are generally random and therefore something worth taking a risk on. Piniero pitched like an ace last season, and Citi Field will likely help keep his HR rate low. Pelfrey, with a better defense, will pitch better than his 2008 numbers based on peripherals. Santana should rebound if the surgery was okay. Niese will serve as a fill-in should any pitcher get hurt.

Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Brain Socks, Pedro Feliciano, Adam Bostick, Jenry Mejia, Sean Green

Relievers are about as random as they come. K-rod is the best option at closer for now. Maine should be a decent 8th inning man based on his numbers through the first time through the lineup. Oliver Perez has no where else to go. Brain Socks is pure win. Feliciano is a decent lefty specialist. Bostick has the potential to be Feliciano. Mejia can be used like Joba, or Neftali Feliz. Green is the righty specialist. A decent bullpen, certainly better than last years, and CHEAP.

Bench: Josh Thole, Angel Pagan, Adam Everett, Fernando Tatis

Adam Everett would sign for 1 year/ $1 million. Tatis played well last year and could be used in a multitude of positions. Everett is an EXCELLENT defensive shortstop, and would be fine in case of an injury. Thole would be able to learn as a backup catcher, and hopefully steal the spot. Pagan put up over 2 WAR last year in limited time and seems to be a decent offensive and defensive player.

That is my plan. It is long, but it is detailed and it would result in a great team. Payroll additions: Everett ($1 million), Harden ($8 million), Bedard ($4 million), Pineiro ($8 million), Winn ($4 million), Cameron ($7 million), Figgins ($10 million), Lopez ($4 million), Navarro ($2 million).

Subtractions: Delgado, Frenchy, Castillo, Cora, Sullivan, Putz, Schneider, Redding, Sheffield.

Overall, the budget basically breaks even BUT there are less long-term commitments. The team, if it develops it's minor league players properly, could be playing under $100 million in 2 years. This team hits better and fields MUCH better than the 2009 version... even fully healthy.