AAOP: The Rick(y/ie) Plan

by ror0071619 on Nov 16, 2009 4:59 PM EST

2010 Mets

I based most of my decisions on information from Fangraphs and Hardball Times. For the decisions not based on stats were just from my gut.

Lineup:

SS Jose Reyes ($9 mil)

3B David Wright ($10.25 mil)

CF Carlos Beltran (18.5 mil)

LF Matt Holliday ($18 mil)

1B Carlos Delgado (~$10 mil)

2B Rickie Weeks (~$3 mil with arbitration)

RF Jeff Francouer (~$4 mil with arbitration)

C Chris Snyder ($4.75 mil)

Rotation:

Johan Santana ($21 mil)

Ricky Nolasco (~$4 mil with arb)

Mike Pelfrey ($.5 mil)

Oliver Perez (12 mil)

Rich Harden (~$10 mil)

Erik Bedard (DL until Aug) (~$7 mil)

Bullpen

Francisco Rodriguez ($11.5 mil)

J.J. Putz (~$6 mil)

Brian Stokes (.4 mil)

Pedro Feliciano (~2 mil with arb)

Fernando Nieve ($.4 mil)

Adam Bostik($.4 mil)

Sean Green ($.4 mil)

Bench:

Wilson Valdez ($.4 mil)

Omir Santos ($.4 mil)

Angel Pagan (~$1 mil with arb)

Chris Carter ($.4 mil)

Daniel Murphy ($.5 mil)

Total Cost assuming all incentives kick in= ~$154 million

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 year $110 million deal. He is a very good hitter and a good enough fielder to solidify both the lineup and the outfield.
I would make a trade for Ricky Nolasco and Rickie Weeks. I would guess that a package of Brad Holt, Ruben Tejada, Javier Rodriguez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and maybe Jeurys Familia might get Nolasco. I would be hesitant but willing to throw in another prospect not named Mejia, Davis, Martinez, or Flores. Nolasco is an ace who had a ton of bad luck last year explaining the difference between his ERA (5.06) and his XFIP (3.29).
Trading Maine and Parnell might get us Weeks and if that isn't enough throw in Jose Coronado. This would give us an ace for our number two starter who is under control for 3 years and a 2B who has a lot of potential despite many question marks.
Resign Delgado to a one year deal with a $3 million base and incentives up to $10 mil. If he can stay healthy enough to play in about 120 games he can be a very nice buy. Murphy and Carter should be good enough for the other 42 games.
Sign Rich Harden to an identical deal to Delgado's with an option for a second year. He is the ultimate high risk/high reward guy. He has a ton of potential to both pitch like an ace and to be injured the whole year.
I would love to bring in Chris Ianetta but he would probably cost too much in prospects so instead I would trade Luis Castillo and Michael Antonini for Chris Snyder. Snyder is coming off of a back surgery but is young and could be a solid catcher for us next year.
Sign Erik Bedard to a one year deal worth $3 mil and have incentives up to $7 mil. He has a good deal of potential and could end up providing us with depth when he comes back.
Sign Putz to a one year deal with a $2 million base and incentives up to $6 mil.
Sign Valdez to a 1 year league minimum deal. He was a very good defensive backup at both 2b and ss.
Sign Mark Prior, Edgardo Alfonzo, Noah Lowry, Julio Lugo, Chad Cordero, Brian Schneider, and Rich Hill to minor league contracts. Most of these guys are coming off injuries and have a good amount of upside if healthy. Schneider is a pretty good defensive catcher according to some attempts at evaluating catcher defense and hopefully will continue to take Thole under his wing in AAA. Fonzie would be more of a signing because he's Fonzie.
Nieve has the stuff to be a solid reliever and his starting experience would allow him to pitch multiple innings. Bostik would be a lefty specialist because he murdered lefties in the minors this year.
I would turn Murphy into a super-sub playing mainly 1b and 2b for if/when Delgado and Weeks get injured/need a day off.
My gut tells me to avoid Wolf, Pineiro, Bay, and Hudson.
An alternative to the Nolasco/Weeks trades would be to trade Brad Holt, Ruben Tejada, Scott Moviel, Javier Rodriguez, and Bobby Parnell for Brandon Phillips and Aaron Harang. Phillips is a good defensive 2b who will help the pitching staff while Harang will benefit from Citi Field and the Mets solid outfield defense. This plan would entail not signing Delgado or Harden and giving up more prospects. For this plan I would sign Tatis/Blalock/Atkins as a backup. Tatis is the most versatile and best fielder while Atkins and Blalock have more power potential.
Non-tender Tim Redding. Bring Figueroa back to AAA. Put Reed and Sullivan in AAA as well.

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Comments

Wow. Talk about last minute.

I don’t like trading away so many prospects, but that is a solid team. You can probably pay less to bring Delgado back though.

by boom_roasted on Nov 16, 2009 5:06 PM EST reply actions

Last minute because I just joined SBN and couldn't post until about 4.

I thought about it but we’d (hopefully) still get to keep our top 3 position prospects and our top pitching prospect and in return get an ace, risky but potentially very good 2b, and a solid catcher meanwhile getting rid of the black hole at 2b.

by ror0071619 on Nov 16, 2009 5:30 PM EST reply actions

Just under the wire.

I got to say, I’m not fond of giving up so many prospects. It’s not a bad plan, but it robs us of depth 2-3 years down the line. And Snyder, as you do point out, suffered a serious back injury. That’s a huge red flag for a catcher.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 16, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions

Prospects

It does not give us much depth down the road but we should be looking to win now while we still have Santana, Beltran, and Holliday are still in the prime (or not too far down from their peak). Also we still get to keep our top 4 prospects and Niese. Also the Synder trade is more to get rid of Castillo for Weeks, another option would be to just keep Castillo and sign Zaun for a year.

by ror0071619 on Nov 16, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

C

Also if Snyder gets hurt we would have Schneider and Thole down in AAA. Schnider was a pretty good catcher (as was Santos) according to this attempt at evaluating C defense.

by ror0071619 on Nov 16, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

Gotay

I would also love to bring back one of my boys, Ruben Gotay on a minor league deal

by ror0071619 on Nov 17, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions

Cameron

With more money I would have loved to include Francouer in a trade and sign Cameron to a one or two year deal to play right.

by ror0071619 on Nov 17, 2009 8:14 PM EST reply actions

too much

I would think the Marlins jump at that offer as we are giving up a lot, Nolasco didn’t even dominate last year.
That might be about right for Weeks, but I doubt the Brewers would trade him now that he is starting to show the potential they have been waiting on.
I think it is time to move on from Delgado, he is too old and an uncertainty.
Harden is no good for us, we need pitchers who can last deep into the game with the uncertainty in Pelfrey and Perez, and he cannot. He has stuff but not durability.
Same for Bedard.

by astromets on Nov 17, 2009 10:06 PM EST reply actions

It may be too much but...

I wouldn’t use that offer as a starting point obviously but I would go that high. Also I think that the Brewers would take us up on the offer as they are looking for pitching and would be able to stick Maine in the rotation right away and use Parnell in the bullpen (or have him start if they choose). They could also then resign Lopez as their 2b. Delgado is an uncertainty but he can be a big power threat and hit well before he went down with injury last year. Also if he gets hurt a Murphy/Carter/Evans platoon wouldn’t be too terrible. Harden doesn’t last deep but neither did Maine. There is uncertainty in Pelf and Perez but we do also have Niese in the AAA waiting. Bedard is coming off surgery and won’t pitch until August but could provide a huge late season boost. Harden isn’t durable but if he does stay healthy and pitch to his potential we could have the best 1-3 rotation and 1-4 when Bedard comes off the DL.

by ror0071619 on Nov 18, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions