Would Fernando Martinez For Curtis Granderson Be A Good Trade?
Given how much Fernando Martinez's value has apparently fallen, I feel pretty strongly that the Mets shouldn't seek to trade him. If there's any truth to this rumor, however, that the Mets are considering trading him for Curtis Granderson, I'll pack his bags. For all of you who want Carl Crawford for his range, Curtis Granderson is that range with power, upside, and a criminally good contract. Assuming he'll be 4 WAR per season, reasonable but almost baseline when you consider he's already had a 7 WAR season, he'd be a $42 million dollar value through 2013.
With injury concerns and unrefined plate discipline, Martinez is far from a sure thing. If you have the financial resources, how can you not trade the unproven prospect for the young established superstar? This is the kind of trade I thought the Mets could pursue after the Gomez/Hardy deal--one where they give up an equivalent player of long-term surplus value for someone more immediately helpful, but also young and affordable.
Granted, there are criticisms of Granderson. He strikes out a lot, kind of a non-sequitur when he hits so well. Granderson is also coming off a down year, due to a really bad split versus lefties. While last years' splits probably aren't representative of his skill level, the Mets have enough platoon-ready, lefty-masher outfielders to help him out (Francoeur, Evans).
Ultimately, I think Granderson is the long-term answer to Beltran's declining range. He's also a great clubhouse guy, for what it's worth. Matt Cerrone asked his readers a sort of similar question, but assuming the trade would go down as the original rumor, F!Bomb and Tejada for Granderson, would you do it?
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I'd do it.
Granderson isn’t that old, either. He’s 27? 28?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 17, 2009 10:04 AM EST reply actions
And think of Granderson triples in Citi Field...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 17, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Tejada
is tough to lose for me, but granderson is awesome. i’d do it
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions
yeah i agree, as much as I'd hate losing Tejada
this is a young talented player who would help solve a lot of issues for relatively cheap.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 17, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Do you prefer Tejada over Martinez?
Or are you saying you’d hate to lose Tejada in addition to Martinez?
by TheBigStapler on Nov 17, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Martinez
for Granderson straight up would be my first hope. I’d rather see if we could throw in Parnell or another pitcher not named Familia, Holt, Mejia. I have a mancrush on tejada thogh
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
I think Parnell is a solid player though, whereas Tejada is a prospect. Trading prospects is usually done to try to win now and you wouldn’t want to have to add another RP to the shopping list.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
Agree
but a starting position player holds a lot more value than a reliever. And if tejada could turn into a young Luis Castillo we’d have 2B locked up for a while
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
I would absolutely do it.
Martinez is awesome, and I like Tejada, but Granderson is like one of the best case (in terms of production) scenarios for an outfield prospect of F!‘s calibur. That said, CG’s value is down pretty significantly. Don’t be afraid to lowball initially, and work your way up.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
maybe
I think Granderson gets overrated a bit by stat-heads(Which probably means Manuel won’t like him..), but straight up it’s be hard not to do. However, once you start throwing in more prospects, the likelihood I’d do it goes down.
Then again, Granderson is a long-term guy, taking the place of what you project Martinez to be. Tejada is currently stuck until they attempt to switch him to 2B. If we think he can be a
major league caliber player, maybe don’t make the trade, but that may be a long shot too.
I think I’d lean towards doing it, although my preference would be for him to play RF and still sign Holliday.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
How is having good stats
overrating a player?
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
well, he had a down year for one. his stats last year don’t justify this trade, and you have to wonder if it’s a regression, or a fluke.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
His babip
was 276. That gets closer to 300 and that OBP goes right back up to 350-360 along with a 450 or better slg. Along with awesome D, he is kind of a can’t miss for me
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
His babip
was 276. That gets closer to 300 and that OBP goes right back up to 350-360 along with a 450 or better slg. Along with awesome D, he is kind of a can’t miss for me
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
No one expects that.
But with a normalized BABIP, he’s still an All-Star. Just not an MVP like his peak (lucky) year.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
That's why
his 08 numbers are about the most reliable IMO
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
I'd recommend reading this Fangraphs post
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/grandersons-just-fine
Argues that Granderson’s “down year” was largely the product of bad luck.
Additionally, if we get Granderson...
I could see us spending more on pitchers. So maybe Lackey wouldn’t be out of the question if his price isn’t so high.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Good point
Or maybe you gamble that Joel Pineiro has actually mastered the sinker and will be worth $10 million per over two or three years. Plus, you know, Rich Harden.
I'd love to get holliday
and then hope for the best from a Bedard/Harden signing, along with Mejia or Holt contributing. Lotta hope, but what a freaking lineup. The Yankees pounded their way to the playoffs for years without great SP, maybe we could pull it off.
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
?
I am kinda confused? Wouldn’t the three of those players equal to about what we can spend this off-season? Or are you talking about the Yanks SP? Because i am talking about the 03-07 seasons when they had the likes of Brown, Contreras, Aaron Small, Al Lieter and Jaret Wright in their rotation
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Ah.
I thought you were talking about this year, when they finally won, after signing CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and allowed Joba to pitch as a starter.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Nahh
It’d be nice to do that though. We all know the playoffs are a crapshoot though, so if ya get in with a good offense you just need a Suppan or Weaver to get hot and next thing ya know WS Champtions
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Nov 17, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
This is the type of deal that helps you in the short-run and long-run, without having to break the bank on a player.
Great line in the comments on the other side of that link:
My above post isn’t even taking into account that we’re actually talking about trading F-Mart and two other good prospects for the same older player who’s in an obvious steep decline…I think the Zambrano/Kazmir deal had more merit going into the deal
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 17, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions
Question
Since we’d be playing Granderson in the corner outfield instead of center, wouldn’t his value be diminished somewhat? Not that I wouldn’t make the trade in a heartbeat, but you’d have take that into account in your calculations.
True
though Page implied that Granderson would be moving Beltran over at some point in the not-too-distant future.
by TheBigStapler on Nov 17, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Not necessarily...
There was a thread over at BaseballThinkFactory where there seemed to be general agreement that the -10 runs the positional adjustment (moving from CF to LF) costs you gets made back by the simple fact that the CF playing left, having more range than the typical LFer, makes about +10 runs worth of plays than that typical LFer.
That does make sense to me, though I don’t know where to look for a study supporting the idea.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 17, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, and since Granderson is the most I can hope FM will turn into,
and feel he has about a 5% chance of doing so, and that Tejada’s total zone rating for his minor league career asserts he’s an average fielder (with no power), there’s no way I’d let lincluding Tejada keep me from making that deal.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 17, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
In a bloody heartbeat...
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
Bad idea
I’d rather hold onto F! for one more season, let him get hurt again to completely kill his value, then trade him to the Nationals for a crappy catcher and a platoon outfielder on the wrong side of 30.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Not generally inclined to trade Fernando
but yeah, this one’s a flat out steal.
Yup, I have to agree
Its a shame to trade Fernando now, but this deal would make too much sense.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 17, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the thing about this proposal
I think with these two prospects in particular, the range of opinions is pretty wide, but they’re also very different prospects, so I’m not sure if this would be the match the Tigers are looking for. If it was available, I’d have to say yes. But clubs who value Fernando highly are going to see the upside from his scouting reports, his batspeed, athleticism, and his power potential and still be willing to drool. Ruben Tejada is almost the polar opposite. Teams that value contact rate, strike zone control, polish, and premium position defense are going to look at him and see what they like. I’m not necessarily saying the Tigers wouldn’t like both players, but for this deal to be fair to the prospect-receiving team, they would have to an above average perception on both player: that Fernando still has superstar upside and that Tejada’s more likely to be a regular than a bench player at this point. There are probably more GMs who think neither of those things than both at this point.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing though. If Fernando Martinez is going to be the primary piece, I’d try to pair him up with a more similar type of “boom or bust” type prospect, probably someone from the lower levels of the farm as well. I might try to get away with Jefry Marte, Jordany Valdespin, and Kyle Allen (most likely in that order) but I think it’d probably have to be Jeurys Familia. He’s a nice prospect, but right now I’d rather have Ruben Tejada than any of those guys, and I’d expect a team that is still in love with Fernando might even prefer Familia over Tejada.
If Tejada’s going to be the secondary piece, I’d guess the primary piece the Tigers would want would be Jon Niese. That’s a money saving package of players guaranteed to recoup you plenty of value over the next few years, but neither of whom will have the impact Granderson is capable of, perhaps even combined. I might nix this one. Not because its a poor value for the Mets, but because there’s just not enough pitching on the market to afford dealing Niese away. At this point, he seems at least as likely to be effective in a full major league season as Oliver Perez or John Maine, and he’s way cheaper.
In the latter case, I might consider offering something like Ruben Tejada, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Bobby Parnell, though I think the value in the former deal, centered around Fernando, is much better than this one, probably for both teams. But this is still a decent enough deal, and it would be if it were Reese Havens instead of Rubne Tejada as well.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 17, 2009 3:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I like Tejada and F!, but getting Granderson for those two would be a steal
So, why would the Tigers do it? is his grission factor not high enough? Is Omar their manager?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
They're flat broke apparently
And I guess so is nearly everyone else.
Giving him 4.0 WAR is kinda generous
considering he’s only reacher 4 WAR once.
According to fangraphs, he's reached 3.8 3 times
this is where the components of WAR are greater than the whole. The year he was hurt brings down his defensive ratings, when he easily should have been 4 WAR. Also he’s a great baserunner, which isn’t in the fangraphs formula. So, no, 4 WAR isn’t a regression of his fangraphs WAR, it’s my own projection, but it doesn’t make any difference to the point I was making. Sub 3.8 WAR instead, if that’s really the difference for you.
Yeah, if you factor baserunning he's over 4 WAR each of 2006-2008, and only missed out in 2009 because it was so BABIP deflated
His baserunning was stellar to Carlos Beltran proportions in 2007 and 2008, in 2006 and 2009 it was just decent. 2007 was the only year he derived most of his baserunning value from EqSBR, which if I’m not mistaken is essentially calculated into fangraphs WAR, so we shouldn’t count that when adding the BP baserunner ratings. But that was his ridiculous 7 WAR season anyway. He was a 5.8 EqBRR in 2008 and only 0.65 of that was from EqSBR. Most of it came from EqHAR, which suggests he was a master at doing things like going first to third, scoring from first on doubles, and scoring from second on singles.
In 2009 his EqBRR was just 1.9, and virtually all that value was once again derived from EqHAR, so it looks like a legit repeatable skill, he’s never been below the his 2.09 mark from 2009, and the reason it was even that low in 2009 was more likely because his BABIP and thus OBP suffered a bit, so he simply had less opportunity.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 17, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
4.0 seems like a pretty decent baseline for him
James projects him at a .366 wOBA. CHONE is around .350 (not all the wOBA components are there for CHONE, such as PAs and NIBBs, but estimating on the cautious side for the missing elements I got about .348). I think .350’s a pretty fair guess here. In 650 PAs that’d yield roughly 11.3 wRAA (assuming lgwOBA = .330 and wOBAscale = 1.15). Add 21.67 for the replacement level conversion ([20/600] * 650), that’s 32.97. 2.0 EqBRR seems pretty safe for his baserunning contribution, perhaps even a bit conservative if you’re assuming he were on the Mets, a team known for having a strong and aggressive baserunning game, bu we’ll stick with 2.0 for now, so we’re at 34.97 RAR before counting defense and positional adjustment. This spreadsheet from BtB projects a 2.3 UZR in CF. Then you have to adjust for position. If he’s a CF, that’s 2.5. If he’s in a corner, then its -7.5, but you have to change his UZR projection by just about as much, since the average level of defense is so much lower. Assuming UZRPosition adjustment = ~4.8 seems pretty fair, so that gives us a final RAR of 39.77, or a WAR of 3.977, which fangraphs would list as 4.0.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 17, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Lost a plus sign in there
UZRPosition adjustment = ~4.8
should be UZR + Positional adjustment = ~ 4.8. I’m not really sure how fair this assumption is. Looking at guys who have spent some time shifting from CF to a corner it seems to hold up pretty well, but I don’t have the data to necessarily support it. It may be that in a corner he would lose some value, simply because the extra UZR runs he’d gain wouldn’t be enough to offset the entire -10 run positional adjustment there is moving from CF to a corner.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 17, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
Get Edwin Jackson as well
I would also want to see if the Mets could also get Jackson in this deal as well. Throw in Parnell and maybe one more to get Jackson to be our no. 3 or 4.
GRANEDERSON for F-MART?????
NO,NO,NO,No,No,No,
Keep youngsters and sign someone like Marlon Byrd or Coco Crisp (if, f/ad)
in the long run its a win-win, for payroll flexability. Plus you can use money that
would go to Granderson for pitching or other need……….

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