AAOP: Supplementing the Core

(Note:  I realize I'm way too late for the AAOP contest.  I'm just posting this entry to throw out ideas and generate debate,.  Your comments are welcome, of course)

My offseason plan is as follows:

(1)  Trade prospects for Curtis Granderson. As Sam Page has pointed out, Granderson brings one of the best packages of power, speed, defense, & walks in baseball, is only 28, and comes at a great bargain.  By adding Granderson as their power bat instead of breaking the bank on a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Mets retain the payroll flexibility to supplement their core with high-value role players, the absence of which has hurt the Mets significantly the last 3 years.    

Trading for Granderson would boost the Mets payroll by $5.5 million in 2010.

 (2) Sign Placido Polanco.  Polanco is perhaps the best-fielding second baseman in the major leagues.  Admittedly, Polanco is somewhat light with the bat: his wOBA has declined from .371 to .339 to .321 since 2007.  However, Polanco's awesome glove more more than makes up for it; according to Fangraphs, Polanco's value in 2009 to the Tigers was  $14.1 million.  I'm estimating Polanco would command something like a 2-year deal at a total value of $13 to $16 million, so let's figure an addition to the 2010 payroll of $7.25 million.   

(3) Sign Ben Sheets.  Sheets is coming off elbow surgery, but his agent insists he'll be 100% healthy by spring training.  Of course, Sheets has a history of losing time due to injuries: from 2005 to 2008, he averaged only 150 innings, and made over 30 starts in only one of those seasons.  That being said, when he's healthy, Sheets is one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball.  100-to-150 innings of Sheets would still provide significant value to the Mets.  The most attractive thing about getting Sheets is that he probably could be signed  for a low base salary with lots of incentives. I'm estimating a base salary of $4 million. 

(4) Sign Jon Garland.  Garland is kind of a "meh" pitcher,; he doesn't strike out a lot of batters (career K/9 of 4.72), and for that reason, doesn't particularly enthuse many fans.  But whatever Garland's limits, he's been durable & consistent.  He's made more than 30 starts each of the last 8 season, and has posted FIP's between 4.24 and 4.76 since 2005.  He's the perfect complement to the high-risk/high-reward Sheets.  I estimate it would take between $7 and $9 million to sign Garland.  

(5) Sign Gregg Zaun as Catcher.  Zaun brings good plate discipline and decent pop for a catcher, and according to Driveline Mechanics, was an average defender.    I figure we can get him for around $2 million (the price at which the Rays refused to extend his option).

(6) Keep Daniel Murphy as the 1st baseman, but bring in a right-handed bat to platoon with him.  My choice would be Ryan Garko, who the Giants are likely to non-tender.  Garko has mashed lefties to the tune of  .313 /.392/.495 in his career, and should be available at a cheap price (around $1 million).  Plus, if Murphy falters in 2010, Garko is capable enough to take over the starting job.

(6) Go with Angel Pagan as the starting rightfielder.  Personally, I'm skeptical that Pagan's 2009 was a fluke (we're talking about a guy with a career minor league OPS of  .715).  I'd prefer to sign an established free agent and use Pagan off the bench.    However, if we want to trade for Granderson and sign Polanco, Sheets & Garland and stay within our budget, this is one of the places where we have to be frugal.  I prefer Pagan to Francoeur, so I'm going with Angel. 

(7)  Because of budget constraints, we're limited in who we can add to the bullpen.  I'd love to add a proven setup guy like Rafael Betancourt or Brandon Lyon, but we don't have the money to do it.  Improving our position players & our starting pitching takes priority over the bullpen.  Therefore, I'm going to limit us to signing Joe Biemel, at a price around $1 million.  Biemel would be the 2nd lefty in the bullpen, but who actually has some ability to get righties out (career OPS of .790 against them).

(8)  Move John Maine to the bullpen.  With the additions of Garland & Sheets, we're going to have to move one of our starters to the bullpen.  Maine seems like a better fit for the bullpen than Pelfrey or Ollie. Of course, when Sheets suffers the inevitable injury, Maine will be available to fill in for him. 

(9)  Trade Luis Castillo &  Jeff Francoeur.  I don't hate Castillo the way some Mets fans do, but the combination of extreme lack of power & horrible range at 2b, plus the likelihood that he'll continue to decline with age, make it imperative to get rid of his contract.  (Plus, we have to move him if we want to sign Polanco).  I'm confident that if we're willing to eat most or all of Luis' contract, we can find somebody to take him off our hands. 

As for Francouer, there is no need to reiterate his flaws to AA readers..  Unlike Castillo, Frenchy doesn't come with an expensive contract, so finding a team that's stupid enough to take him shouldn't be hard.  The Royals seem like a definite possibility; Dayton Moore is said to have an affinity for Francoeur. 

Our projected starting lineup looks like this:

C: Zaun

1B: Murphy/Garko

2B: Polanco

SS:  Reyes

3B: Wright:

RF: Pagan

CF: Beltran

LF: Granderson

Rotation

Santana

Sheets

Garland

Ollie

Pelfrey

Bullpen:

K-Rod

Parnell

Green

Biemel

Feliciano

Figueroa//Nieve/Stokes

Maine

Note:  We'd be adding around $30 million to our payroll, which leaves us with the $150 million budget that the Mets are looking at.