Credit Where Credit Is Due
Time is sometimes spent in this space criticizing the work of those in the mainstream media, be it Kevin Kernan, John Harper or Marty Noble. Not as much time is spent praising strong work. Ken Davidoff is a national baseball writer at Newsday and is one of the few in the mainstream who embraces sabermetrics. For him, and most others who are saber-inclined, it's less about breaking the game down into spreadsheets and more about utilizing all the information available to synthesize an informed opinion. In this vein, two pieces by Davidoff were noteworthy this week. The first was a ranking of free agents using the beloved WAR, linked here. The WAR concept is one that is tough to convey in print, but I think this summed it up nicely:
It's a metric devised by respected statistical analyst Tom Tango that calculates how many victories each player produced relative to the "replacement-level player" at his position.
The second piece was Davidoff's explanation of his NL Cy Young ballot, on which he voted for Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, in that order. It's hard to quibble with the selections, especially when these are some of the rationales behind the vote (hopefully the Dolans won't sue me for pasting content from behind Newsday.com's pay wall):
For starters (pun intended), I didn't even bother looking at won-loss records this year. What's the point? They only cloud your judgment. If you're looking for a guy who pitches deep into the game to get decisions, that's what innings pitched is for.
Lincecum threw 225 1/3 innings, third most in the NL, and he led the senior circuit with 261 strikeouts. His 2.34 FIP paced the NL (by a healthy .43 runs), as did his 8.2 Wins Above Replacement.
A strong ballot, supported by objective evidence. It seems like a simple concept but this represents progress for the BBWAA. The mainstream could use some more all-around great journalists like Davidoff.
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Unfortunately, you have guys like Captain Obvious, Bryan Burwell of the St-L P-D
who wonders, “”http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/bryanburwell/story/3C87D5BC1B0134E8862576740017024D?OpenDocument" target="new">Why Don’t Wins Count Anymore?"
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Not sure why that link came out weird
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Forgot to add...
classic example of begging the question. Burwell assumes that wins are important in order to “prove” that very point.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Nov 21, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
purely for correct use of “begging the question” as a circular logic fallacy (rather a synonym for “suggests another question.”)
This beleaguered English teacher thanks you.
phliadelphoe ite domum!
by Doc Manhattan on Nov 21, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Pos had a good blog post about "begging the question" a few days ago
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
oh God the writing
Armed with their “advanced metrics” and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport both in the front offices and behind the scenes
Why is this a bad thing? Just because they’re smarter than you doesn’t make it a bad thing.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 21, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
That Davidoff article was good
until the part where he “predicted” the mets would sign Molina to a 2 year 12 mil contract, GROSS.
Well, it's probably not a bad prediction
He’s not saying the Mets should sign Molina, he is saying that they will because Omar Minaya runs the team.
by boom_roasted on Nov 21, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
"If won-loss records are suddenly obsolete, why do we bother to keep the stat?"
Good question, Bryan. I honestly don’t know. W-L only matters for the whole team, so it should really only be reflected in the standings.
Anyway, it appears the esteemed Mr. Burwell and I came to the same conclusion that we’ve reached a watershed moment in Cy Young voting, but while he reacted with horror, I was quite pleased. The voters are finally voting for the best pitcher, useless stats like “wins” be damned. And to think, it was only 4 years ago that Bartolo Colon beat out Johan Santana for AL Cy Young based on nothing but wins, even though Santana was the better pitcher by a laughably large margin.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
Good job, Davidoff
too bad your Newsday is run by morons.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

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