Jose Guillen Trade Rumor Is Ridiculous For Multiple Reasons

by James Kannengieser on Nov 22, 2009 10:00 AM EST Comment 24 comments

Adam Rubin at the Daily News is peddling a Jose Guillen trade rumor with this headline: "New York Mets Jump Into Bargain Hunt For Free Agent Jose Guillen". (Edit: The headline has since been changed to "New York Mets In Jose Guillen Bargain Hunt As Kansas City Royals Look To Dump Outfielder") Let's analyze this headline and report:

a) Jose Guillen is not a free agent. Why are the words "free agent" in the title? Maybe I'm missing something.

b) Jose Guillen is not a bargain. He has 1 year left on his contract at $12 million.

c) When one reads a headline like that, he expects to see some info in the article detailing the Mets' interest. However, there is nothing to suggest that the Mets are actually interested, just this line about the Royals looking for a trade partner:

The Royals, who are looking to deal outfielder Jose Guillen, identified the Mets as a potential trading partner, although there was no deal considered close, sources said.

The Royals are looking to deal Jose Guillen? Wow, shocker. They identified the Mets as a potential trading partner? And I identified Marisa Miller as a potential girlfriend. That means nothing. Thanks for playing.

d) The report takes a turn for the crazy around paragraph 3:

The Royals want to acquire an inexpensive outfielder in return for Guillen, and are impressed with Angel Pagan despite his shortcomings.

It's actually surprising that the Royals are interested in Pagan, given their front office's fondness for bad players. Pagan probably played a bit over his head in 2009 but is young, cost-controlled and has a decent chance of being an above average player. The throwaway line about Pagan's "shortcomings" is no doubt a reference to his memorable baserunning gaffes, which were so egregious that they killed any chance of him being a productive major league player, right? Wrong, his baserunning was actually above average this season. Although he might have been even more valuable if he didn't make those mistakes, they cost the team very little. Let's can the discussion about Pagan's "low baseball IQ" everytime he is brought up. Also, how is Luis Castillo not mentioned once in this rumor? What up with that?

e) Most importantly, Jose Guillen is terrible. Like Jeff Francoeur in 2008 terrible. Note that this alone does make the trade unlikely, but it seems outlandish that even Omar Minaya would trade for Guillen. He's 33 years old, recently injured and coming off a season in which he produced -2.0 WAR in just half a season of playing time. You almost have to try to be that bad. He doesn't walk, hit for power or play good defense. Fortunately, this rumor doesn't seem to make ~~much~~ any sense. Guillen as back-up plan to Matt Holliday, Jason Bay or Mike Cameron is like Jeff Suppan as back-up plan to John Lackey, Rich Harden or Randy Wolf.

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Speaking of dumb Daily News Mets articles

You guys see Madden’s column on the Mets focusing on “tier two” free agents like Marlon Byrd, Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf?

I love Madden’s line that Marquis has been a “model of consistency” averaging 13 wins and 196 innings over the last 6 seasons. Now maybe he has, but how does an average make one consistent? I mean, you can average 13 wins by winning 26 games one year then none the rest.

by Bieser's Balk on Nov 22, 2009 10:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Marquis has also been on St. Louis, Chicago, and Colorado for the past six years.

Every team he’s been on has been playoff bound, but that’s not particularly because of anything he’s done. The early 2000s Braves were a decent team, with no competition in the NL East. The mid 2000s Cardinals were the best of their division for a couple of years in a row. The Cubs then took that division, and he happened to be on it. And then, last season, Colorado. It’s pretty indicative that, of the ten seasons he’s been around, he’s actually only participated in the postseason five seasons (and he’s only made three starts, with most of his 23 IP coming in relief appearances).

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 22, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What do the saberMETricists say about Marquis?

(Is “saberMETricists” even word?)

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Nov 22, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think it's sabermetricians

"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner

by metsguy234 on Nov 22, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm no saberMETrician, but...

his “traditional” stats are projected to either go up or get worse next season (4.37 ERA, 202 IP, 22 HR, 110 Ks). His WAR, the one advanced stat that I do understand, was a career high 3.8 this season. In all of his seasons before, it ranged from 1.9, in 2004, to -0.7, in 2005. Doing my best to match his traditional stats with his WAR, the projections seem to land him around the same boat he was in 2005, which gave him a 0.7 WAR. Not very impressive.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 22, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Madden has also been a model of consistency...

He is consistently putting out suck ass articles, and for a lot longer than 6 years too I might add.

by Joe D. on Nov 22, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dont underestimate the capability of the front office and the grission, RBIs and BA of Jose Guillen

by viktor06 on Nov 22, 2009 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree

First, nice catch on the “free agent” in title. I also cited the article and never caught that, mainly because I was blinded by the full thrust of the Guillen.Pagan swap. Guillen is a freaking pariah and I seriously hope the Mets do sign Holliday or Bay because I dread what Plan C would be for the Mets. I would rather have Pagan play everyday than about 80% of the other leftfield options out there. Maybe even 90%.

by Joe D. on Nov 22, 2009 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's a stupid article

but Guillen being bad doesn’t make the trade any less likely.

by Sam Page on Nov 22, 2009 10:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

That factor alone does not make it unlikely

But I don’t think even Omar is ridiculous enough to trade for Jose Guillen, much less giving up Angel Pagan for him.

by James Kannengieser on Nov 22, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he would.

Guillen costs a lot more, therefore he must be better.

I think it’s the same mentality Omar used when paying Ollie a ton more money. Ollie went from a mediocre pitcher to a $12M/year pitcher overnight.

Plus Guillen is a sociopath, so maybe we can go back to the Bobby Bonilla era.

by Mex_17 on Nov 22, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

... but his $12 million dollar contract might

I hope.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Nov 22, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This was my first thought after reading

I don’t have enough faith in Omar to think he wouldn’t trade Pagan for Guillen.

by Gina on Nov 22, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guillen

is also something of a maniac. The Mets have been linked to him by vague rumor before, but he seems like a potential PR nightmare. Doesn’t strike me as something they’d do this offseason.

by TedBerg on Nov 22, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He's Milton Bradley-lite

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Nov 22, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The scary part about this is that Guillen

is the type of player Minaya often goes after.

by fxcarden on Nov 22, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would prefer to stick with Angel Pagan

than to do something stupid like this.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Nov 22, 2009 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

no way this deal gets done

we take on a 12 million dollar contract filling what needs to be an extremely productive position for us with a bad baseball player? what would we get out of this? are the mets feeling very charitable all of the sudden?

by Rey-O on Nov 22, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

In Rubin's defense...

The copy editor usually writes the headline, so they might have been the one to make that gaffe.

Can’t say that for the body of the article, though.

by The 'Ropolitans on Nov 22, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That title business is confusing me

unless I saw that article after they changed it, I don’t see any mention of free agent in the whole thing. I did see a link off to the side of the web page that mentioned ‘free agent Jose Guillen’ but like ‘Ropolitans said, that is the idiot editors. But don’t defend Rubin, he is the jerk who bothered to waste our time and write this stupid story about a trade that everyone knows should never happen.

by astromets on Nov 22, 2009 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm new to these parts...

but how can this rumor make any sense unless it’s a salary swap for Castillo? And even then it’s a terrible idea.

Nice to meet everyone by the way.

by Gland on Nov 22, 2009 5:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Welcome aboard.

Agree about Castillo.

Except after Castillo’s good 2009 season, I think Omar will keep him, assuming that we’ll get 2 more similar years out of our elderly secondbaseman.

by Mex_17 on Nov 22, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Rubin lobby for stupid.

THIS is the guy we need for our player development system!

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 22, 2009 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I doubt Guillen comes to the Mets

There is a 50/50 chance he guns down 5 staff members at a Starbucks when they give him non-organic milk in his double-frappacino when he specifically ordered organic 2%. This guy is as big a looney as they come and we want nothing to do with him.

We do want a better fielding 2b than Castillo however. His bat is pretty damn good but his glove needs replacement.

by scott from peekskill on Nov 23, 2009 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs