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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

AAOP: Two days in making; Trust in upside.

So over the past couple of days--while waiting for my membership to be fully active--I've spent quite some time reading other's fanpost, and alot of them have been of offseason plans. After looking through several of these posts, I've become inspired to give it a try myself.

First and foremost...

- It is almost certain, unfortunately, that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo will BOTH be on the roster in 2010. Therefore, I won't entertain the idea of moving them. I do not want to get rid of Castillo only to get Milton Bradley, or any of the other rumored players, in return.

- A six-man bullpen could work--with pitchers who can actually pitch, and be given roles to play in the bullpen. These roles include long reliever, righty middle reliever, lefty specialist, groundball specialist (to be used with players in scoring position), set-up pitcher (preferrably a lefty, closer caliber pitcher), and closer. It would also help if Dan Warthen wasn't still the pitching coach.

- Bring Jeff Francoeur back. He is young, under salary control, and has tremendous upside. His defense, arm, power potential, and intangibles--yes, I went there--make up for his poor discipline at the plate.

- Angel Pagan makes a serviceable fourth outfielder. Giving him a starting job turns him into a detriment IMO.

- Stick with a Thole/Santos platoon at catcher. Both can call a good game and, with adequate training in the spring, can be defensively solid. I'd likely give Thole more starts--with him being younger and having a future, on top of him being more able to hit for a good average. I do not want to give up a draft pick for catchers like Barajas, Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Kendall. If any of the four are not offered arbitration, I would sign them--albeit frugally.

- Offer Delgado, Putz, and Tatis arbitration. They are all worth taking a chance on for one year, and at a reasonable price. Also, the chance is fair that all three decline arbitration--awarding the Mets three draft picks.

 

Here's the moves the Mets should make--in the event that all three decline arbitration.

 

- Sign Matt Holliday to a five-year contract potentially worth about 90M (16M, 16M, 18M, 20M, 20M), based on incentives. This should definitely land him, but if it doesn't walk away--and look into cheaper options. A Willingham trade would be a decent option.

- Trade for Roy Halladay. I would offer any three or four prospects outside of Davis, Flores, Mejia, Havens, and Thole. If Holliday isn't acquired, I would hold on to FMart as well. I'm thinking Holt, Tejada, Parnell, and Allen could get it done. If the Blue Jays cannot come to an agreement, end negotiations. Look into FA options such as Duchscherer, Hudson, and Escobar; A Roy Oswalt trade is also a good option. If neither Holliday nor Halladay can be acquired, I would approach the offeason without the desire of being a winner in 2010. Save some money in favor of a long-term plan--although Omar doesn't have that luxury, nor should he, at this point.

- Sign Randy Wolf to a one-year contract worth 9M or Jon Garland to a two-year 15M (7M, 8M) contract. If the Dodger's don't offer Wolf arbitration--which is unlikely--I'd sign him over Garland. I'd also be open to giving them a third-year option with a pay increase involved.

- Sign Mike Gonzalez to a three year contract worth 16M (4.5M, 5M, 6.5M) --or sign Kiko Calero to a two year 7M contract, and trade for two additional relievers.

- Sign Mark DeRosa, if the Cardinals do not offer him arbitration. The Mets will need a great bat, who can play multiple positions--especially with chances being taken on Murphy, Francoeur, and Castillo. It would also allow Jerry Manuel to feel more confortable with sitting Wright or Holliday a couple of games, if necessary. I would give DeRosa two years, 12M. If the Cardinals offer him arbitration, sign Hank Blalock instead to a two year 9M (4M, 5M) contract. I wouldn't surrender an additional draft pick for a bench player, even if I do intend to play him regularly.

- Acquire two utility infielders. Make a couple of low-keys trades for guys like Brendan Ryan, Brendan Harris, and Joe Inglett. You've also got Jamey Carroll, Omar Infante, and Mark Loretta on the FA market.

 

This would be the roster if everything goes as originally planned.

 

Lineup:

SS- Reyes; 1B- Murphy; CF- Beltran; LF- Holliday; 3B- Wright; RF- Francoeur; C- Thole; 2B- Castillo.

Rotation:

Santana; Halladay; Wolf/Pelfrey; Pelfrey/Perez; Perez/Garland.

Bench:

Santos; DeRosa/Blalock; Pagan; Evans; two infielders.

Bullpen:

Niese; Stokes; Misch; Feliciano; Gonzalez; K-Rod.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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so

you’d only want halladay/holiday etc. if delgado putz and tatis decline arbitration??

plans not bad, i think jays will one at least one of mejia and davis for halladay though.

by Rey-O on Nov 22, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions  

I would still make a go at Halladay...

but not for Holliday. Delgado would afford us a less costly option at LF.

The Jays will definitely ask for a hefty package on the spot but, if other teams are looking the other way, Mets could gain leverage later in negotiations.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions  

wait, delgado in the OF?

ahhh my eyes… they burn! You can put a less talented outfielder in left if he hits well enough, you can’t put a guy there who’s barely mobile enough to play first base.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 23, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions  

No...

I was saying that with Delgado in the lineup, we can go much cheaper as far as who we get for LF. If we take a chance on Murphy—who I actually think will have a good 2010—we need to get someone of Holliday’s caliber for LF.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

trust in downside

Francoeur, Castilo, Garland, DeRosa, and Misch all have plenty.

by Sam Page on Nov 23, 2009 12:10 AM EST reply actions  

Garland and DeRosa

seem more like less-downside moves than more-upside.

The worst WAR either of them has had in the past 4 years was 1.7

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 23, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm guessing it's his tRA, among other unimpressive numbers.

It’s pretty awful… 5.75 for his career, 5.40 in 09. It seems to consistently be a whole point higher than his FIP every season.

by boom_roasted on Nov 23, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

batted balls profile

gives up a ton of hard linedrives. I’d much rather use tRA for that guy.

by Sam Page on Nov 23, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

They definitely have they flaws...

But, outside of Castillo, the possible rewards outweights the risks.

If Francoeur can learn to be more patient and selective at the plate, he will definitely pay off.

Garland pitches deep into games, and keeps teams in the game. I don’t need a dominant pitcher at the back of the rotation.

I would only take a chance at Misch in the rotation, and I think he’s a good enough pitcher to handle at least that.

DeRosa provides the Mets insurance—should Murphy, Francoeur, or Castillo not pan out.

I’m choosing to look at their upside and bank on it, albeit with some insurance guys on hand—which is what Omar has failed at during his time here.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions  

You would have to pay starter's money for DeRosa

to be a back-up.
“If Francoeur can learn to be more patient and selective at the plate, he will definitely pay off.”
If Ramon Hernandez can learn to become younger, a better hitter, and a better fielder, it will pay off.

by EtSuKe on Nov 23, 2009 1:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Waitwaitwaitwait...MISCH?

In the rotation? The pitcher with a 2-11 career record at age 28? Just because he threw a complete game shutout against the Marlins in late September after both teams were out of the playoff hunt doesn’t mean he’s anything close to SP quality.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 23, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, I meant to say bullpen.

They really need to allow us to edit replies on here.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Trust in

the wildest budget I’ve ever seen.

Sign Lackey while you’re at it…..

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 23, 2009 12:25 AM EST reply actions  

Not really.

Considering what would come off the books, if Delgado and Putz were to leave, the salary increase would not be that great. It certainly shouldn’t exceed 40M. This includes Wagner being off the payroll.

- If Putz returns, the Mets don’t sign Gonzalez
- If Delgado returns, the Mets don’t sign Holliday
- If Tatis returns, they don’t sign DeRosa

There’s no way I make all of those moves, with those three staying with the team.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Logic fail.

You fail to account for salary increases for Wright, Reyes, Santana, Beltran, Pagan, Feliciano, Francoeur, and maybe others.

Holliday will cost much more than Delgado (who only cost $12 mil since the 16mil option didn’t vest).

DeRosa will cost much more than Tatis.

Plus, there is little chance Delgado and Tatis wouldn’t accept arbitration. I think Putz should accept arb too, if offered, but I think he would reject since he has some far-fetched notion that he should be a “closer.”

by boom_roasted on Nov 23, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I was prepared to be off with that calculation.

I didn’t really take the time to do the math, and look at all of the factors. I was trying to address the reply as soon as possible.

by Trey111 on Nov 23, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

No worries

also you mentioned Halladay who would require not only $16 million for 2010 but also a big-ass extension if you’re going to give up that kind of talent (the Blue Jays probably would require a better prospect instead of the dreadful Nick Evans)

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 23, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I think a package of Holt, Tejada, Niewenhuis could get it done.

Maybe even slightly less.

After what we gave for Santana, I’m always confident that Omar could pull off a steal. What do you think it would take, if few teams share interest in Halladay?

by Trey111 on Nov 24, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Humber and Gomez were top 100 prospects in 2007

Deolis Guerra was number 35 in 08 and Gomez 52 from BA. They were all pretty highly regarded prospects at the time. It wasn’t a steal

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 24, 2009 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

i did the math

the Mets lose around $35 million after losing Delgado and Putz.

Add Halladay, $15 million for this year plus $23 million for subsequent years

Add Holliday, likely $20 million per year

Add Wolf, likely $10 million per year

Add DeRosa, $8 million per year

Add Gonzalez, likely $5 milllion per year

you’re saying the Mets should add $23 million to this year’s budget and $33 million to the next years? And STILL have Francoeur and Castillo and Perez? Imagine when Holliday and Halladay get old; that’ll be a fiesta.

by METSMETSMETS on Nov 24, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Intagible are seriously overrated

What are coaches there for then?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 23, 2009 6:32 AM EST reply actions  

jw

do you think jerry manuel is good at it?

by Rey-O on Nov 23, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm going to go with no

this is what coaches are supposed to be for, its not necessarily what they do. the mets coaching staff is almost impossibly inept. Jerry makes bad pitching changes, poor bunting decisions, and completely random batting orders and starting lineup decisions, and seems to forget certain players exist. Hojo ruined the hitting of one of the best 3b in baseball because he was worried Citi would eat a few of his home runs. Razor Shines is a human windmill, and Dan Warthen hasn’t exactly inspired confidence either. The coaching staff IMO is terrible top to bottom.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 23, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

agree with you KeithsMoustache

you’re right on; about all that can be done now is pray and wait for JEFF and ownership to act.

by 1969met on Dec 11, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

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