Free Agent Reliever Valuation
by Eric Simon on Nov 23, 2009 1:21 PM EST
51 comments
Wins Above Replacement is a little iffy for relief pitchers, but nevertheless here is a rudimentary WAR valuation of some of the more attractive free agent relievers. The '5-3-1 WAR' is a weighted average of the past three seasons.
| Player | 2010 Age | WAR 2009 | WAR 2008 | WAR 2007 | 5-3-1 WAR | WAR $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Betancourt (A) | 35 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
| Rafael Soriano (A) | 30 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
| Trevor Hoffman (A) | 42 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| Kiko Calero | 35 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 |
| Jose Valverde (A) | 32 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 3.7 |
| Brandon Lyon | 30 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.6 |
| Mike Gonzalez (A) | 32 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Russ Springer | 41 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| J.J. Putz | 33 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 37 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
It's hard to justify giving up a high second-round pick (somewhere around #45-50 overall) to sign any relief pitcher, let alone a setup man, so while Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez may be two of the better relievers available, their price tags combined with the compensatory draft pick penalty renders them far less appealing than they might otherwise be. Of course, if the Mets sign another Type-A free agent -- Matt Holliday, e.g. -- then they'd be forfeiting a third-round pick instead.
Brandon Lyon, Kiko Calero, and, yes, even Chan Ho Park, are reasonable alternatives to the Type-As on the board. Lyon in particular is intriguing for his effectiveness against lefties (career .766 OPS against righties; .765 against lefties). He's not a great pitcher, but he's pretty good against everyone. Calero has more dramatic lefty/righty splits, but has far better strikeout rates (albeit with worse walk rates) than Lyon.
Park was very effective coming out of the bullpen for the Phillies last season, posting a 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 appearances, allowing just nine extra-base hits -- all doubles -- along the way. The zero homeruns were probably an aberration for Park, who has been an extreme flyball pitcher throughout his career.
Any of these three -- Lyon, Calero, Park -- could be a reasonable addition to the 2010 bullpen on a 1-2 year deal at $2-3 million per, give or take.
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Park's decision to grow a beard
was excellent.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
by Sokojoe on Nov 23, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That's Park?
Wow, that beard makes a huge difference. He looks like a crime lord, or at least an extra from Scarface.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 24, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
That’s what I took away from this post too!
by TheBigStapler on Nov 23, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Chan Ho Park can go to hell
In 2007, my sister was 14, and she spent like all the money she had to get two Field level tickets for me as a birthday gift for me (that I took her to, of course). El Duque I think was supposed to pitch, but he got hurt so Park made a spot start and ruined our one time on the Field Level with his God damn 15.75 ERA in 4 IP.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 23, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions
I don't know if the Braves will offer Rafael Soriano arbitration
But the last thing the Mets need is another high-dollar, injury-prone set-up man.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
Reliever
Brandon Lyon at a reasonable price would be a good addition to the Mets bullpen, but a lefty that can help out “Perpetual Pedro” is much needed
No Rafael Betancourt?
I usually don’t like guys that old, but he seems a perfect fit as setup. He’s worth more than the $5M option the Rockies turned down, but he’s also a type A FA. But if the Mets end up signing another FA anyway, it might be worth it for a 3rd round pick.
5-3-1 WAR ranks alongside Soriano at 1.2.
CHAN NO PARK
Last time the Mets had Chan Ho Park it didn’t end well. Mets are better off going after Lyons, Calero, Betancourt someone who has a much better track record that Park
I want Kiko
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
I wanted Lyon LAST year.
Now I want him again. And again, we won’t get him. My dream pen:
K-Rod
Parnell
Feliciano
Green
Maine
Bostick
Calero/Park/Lyon
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Dream BP
We need a proven left to help out Feliciano
One should never ever trade for a reliever.
And the only free agent lefty that’s any good is Beimel. In my AAOP, I said to sign Beimel, but it is more cost efficient and probably just as effective to put in Bostick. He looks to be as good of a 2nd lefty as you could reasonably ask for.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Gonzalez>Beimel
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'm just saying Gonzalez is better
Beimel will probably go for 1.5 to 2 million Gonzalez between 3 and 4
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
What does any of this have to do with
Gonzalez>Beimel? That’s all I said. Squid said Beimel is the only lefty reliever who’s any good and merely said Gonzalez is better.
And either way, if we sign Holliday, we only lose a third round pick.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
well, you could have meant Gonzalez is the better choice
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport"
Yeah, you're right.
But I was really only talking about non type A’s.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
your dream pen sucks
my dream pen:
Mariano Rivera
Goose Gossage
Dennis Eckersley
Trevor Hoffman
Hoyt Wilhelm
John Franco (lefty specialist)
Billy Wagner (second lefty)
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
My actual dream pen?
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera with his arms surgically switched to make him a lefty
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
He's tougher against left handers than right handers already.
.517 OPS vs LH
.598 OPS vs RH
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
SP IN Bullpen
What about putting John Maine or Oliver Perez in the bullpen so that we can go after more than one FA SP this offseason. I think Maine “when healthy” can be an intrigual part of this team. Ollie is a head case but does have dynamic stuff when he’s thinking correctly.
No, he's just a pitcher with terrible control and consistent inconsistency.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Very mature, though.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 23, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
I've been thinking along these lines, too.
We need two starters, and two starters strengthens the pen by moving Maine and Niese there, at least at the beginning of the season.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 23, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Where's Takashi Saito?
He has a career 2.05 ERA and 2.62 FIP. Bill James projects a 3.00 ERA and 3.21 FIP next year.
Omar will confuse him with Takahashi, and not want him
Takahashi, Takashi, what’s the difference?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 23, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Isnt he heading back to Japan?
Thought i read he signed a contract back in Nippon.
by scott from peekskill on Nov 23, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't see that
He’s listed on MLBTR’s FA list, and what I’ve read is that he is a free agent.
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport"
Everyone's dream pen should include
Stokes, aka Socks!
I'd like to see
a longer list of FA relievers. I’d bet there’s some other decent mid-level choices besides just these guys, right?
Stolen from Cot's:
Luis Ayala FLA
Danys Baez BAL
Miguel Batista SEA
Joe Beimel COL (B)
Joaquin Benoit TEX
Rafael Betancourt * COL (A)
Chad Bradford BAL
Doug Brocail * HOU (B)
Kiko Calero FLA (B)
Elmer Dessens NYM
Brendan Donnelly FLA
Octavio Dotel CWS (A)
Alan Embree COL
Scott Eyre PHI (B)
Josh Fogg COL
Chad Fox CHC
Gary Glover WAS
Mike Gonzalez ATL (A)
Tom Gordon ARZ
John Grabow CHC (A)
Kevin Gregg CHC (A)
Eddie Guardado TEX
LaTroy Hawkins HOU (A)
Mark Hendrickson BAL
Matt Herges COL
Trevor Hoffman MIL (A)
Bobby Howry SF (B)
Jason Isringhausen TB
Masahide Kobayashi CLE
Brandon Lyon DET (B)
Ron Mahay MIN
Gary Majewski WAS
Guillermo Mota LAD (B)
Will Ohman * LAD (B)
Darren Oliver LAA (A)
Chan Ho Park PHI (B)
Troy Percival TB
J.J. Putz * NYM
Juan Rincon COL
Fernando Rodney DET (B)
Duaner Sanchez NYM
Scott Schoeneweis ARZ
Brian Shouse TB (B)
Rafael Soriano ATL (A)
Russ Springer TB (B)
Brett Tomko OAK
Jose Valverde HOU (A)
Claudio Vargas MIL
Ron Villone WAS
Luis Vizcaino * COL
Billy Wagner BOS (A)
Jamie Walker BAL
Jeff Weaver LAD
Kip Wells CIN
Jamey Wright KC
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 23, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Chen Ho Park
Joined the Japanese mafia? Became a 70’s porn star? Wears a fake beard so Phillies fans don’t track him down and kill him? Is a member of Al Qaeda? Thinks he is Smokey and Charlie Manuel is the bear? Was a member of the 1983 New York Islanders? Routinely says “I don’t think so Tim?” Lives in a cave? Produced Close Encounters of the Third Kind?" Came back in another life as Johnny Damon? Wants to look like Joaquin Phoenix?
by scott from peekskill on Nov 23, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions
Oh god, Joaquin Phoenix. I don't even know where to start with him.
I thought his charade was all part of a joke, but his shennanigans have been going on for a while now…
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Pen fixes
I would sign Lyon, Putz and Beimel all to short affordable deals., which is very possible. That would really help out the bullpen. Then add Lackey and Garland or Marquis to the rotation and trade Pelf for some help at another position, maybe Brandon Phillips.
RP
Out of the long list that was posted above there are some player that would fit the Mets mold great and some very pressing Questions.
Do the mets do the same thing they did with Putz last year and try to make a closer into a Setup guy?
If so then Rodney, Gonzalez and Valverde need to top that list, if not then
I think they should go after Lyon,Soriano, Baez, Beimel, Rincon, Howry
These guys are all proven on the big stage
There is literally 0 reason why we should go after a Type A free agent.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Not true
If we sign Holliday/Lackey then giving up a 3rd rounder for one of the type a’s isn’t as big of a deal.
Yeah
but I think we might also sign one for second base or whatever. All I know is that it seems like an odd move to make.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
If we sign Holliday & Lopez
then it don’t matter
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
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