Free Agent Second Basemen Valuation

by Eric Simon on Nov 24, 2009 10:46 AM EST

Luis Castillo is under contract for two more years at $6 million per, yet we all seem to be forging ahead with our offseason plans as if his jettisoning is a foregone conclusion. Rumored deals for Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millwood have gone nowhere (if in fact they were ever really discussed), so if the Mets aren't actively shopping Castillo we can at least be sure that the rumormongers think they should be.

Last season Castillo was serviceable at the plate and woeful in the field, and since his spot is the only infield position the Mets could realistically upgrade defensively it makes some sense that the Mets will look to do just that. If they recognize how important infield defense is to a groundball pitcher like Mike Pelfrey (and free agent groundballer Joel Pineiro, if they elect to show interest in him) they'll be even more compelled to replace Castillo.

Here are the prominent free agent second basemen. I've included Castillo for the purpose of comparison. Again, the '5-3-1 WAR' is a weighted average of the last three seasons: (5 * 2009 WAR) + (3 * 2008 WAR) + (1 * 2007 WAR). 'WAR $' is just $4.5 million per '5-3-1 WAR', and should be used as a rough guide to what the player is worth, not necessarily what he should cost (as some teams can pay more per win than others).

Player	2010 Age	WAR 2009	WAR 2008	WAR 2007	5-3-1 WAR	WAR $
Placido Polanco (A)	34	3.1	3.1	5.3	3.3	15.1
Felipe Lopez (A)	30	4.6	0.8	0.4	2.9	12.9
Orlando Hudson (A)	32	2.9	2	3.3	2.6	11.9
Ron Belliard	35	1.3	1.7	2.4	1.6	7.0
Luis Castillo	34	1.6	0.6	2.4	1.4	6.1
Jamey Carroll	36	1.5	1.4	0.1	1.3	5.9

Placido Polanco is certainly appealing, but he'll be 34 next year and is a Type-A free agent. Felipe Lopez was terrific last season but awful the prior two seasons. He was good offensively for just the second time in his career and adept in the field for the first time ever. A contract-year aberration? Could be. Orlando Hudson appears destined to be a Met at some point, and he's still a good enough player that a two-year deal at Castillo money would make sense for the Mets (depending on what it costs them to slough off Castillo in the first place). Like Polanco, Lopez and Hudson have been given Type-A status, which further drives up their cost of acquisition (assuming they are offered arbitration).

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Given his bad contract, and the fact that the 2b FA pool isn't very compelling, we might just be better off with Castillo for another year

God knows, he’s not going anywhere, so we have the rest of his contract to attempt to shop him and work out a deal that isn’t massively one-sided against us.

Those Kevin Millwood rumors sounded nice.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 24, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions

Brandon Phillips would be AMAZING!

There is def. no easy fix here unless the Mets can somehow trade for Brandon Phillips who is better and younger then everyone on the list above. If they do end up trading castillo for Milwood or someone else it better bring a young 2B with a bright future to this town

by Leemet on Nov 24, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions

Evan_S and I had a spirited Phillips vs. Polanco debate in another thread

Polanco’s really the only guy on this list who stands up to Phillips, and if you assume he maintains last year’s numbers, he’s probably a better bargain. But he is 34, and his production is almost entirely reliant on defense, contact rate, and BABIP. Phillips’ value is derived from his defense and power. Polanco’s age means his defensive production is questionable going forward, and BABIP isn’t nearly as sustainable a skill as Phillips’ power is. If it was a pure choice between the two, I easily go with Phillips, but Polanco probably won’t be offered arbitration, and Phillips will cost prospects and more money over the next two years, so Polanco may be a better buy.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 24, 2009 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

I agree on Phillips

And i think he is easily getable. If we are willing to take him AND Bronson Arroyo to clear Cinncy’s books i dont think we would have to kick in too much to get it done. How about Chris Carter and Bobby Parnell. or maybe a Carter/niese package.

by scott from peekskill on Nov 25, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

What about

A non-tendered guy like Uggla, good power and reasonable glove? Should come cheap on a one year dealio. And what about another non-tender guy to platoon with Murph…Garrett Atkins? I believe he is a right hander.

If Omar waits for these guys to get cut then we might get 2 bargains and no lost prospects.

by scott from peekskill on Nov 25, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

Uggla's not getting non-tendered

Atkins might, but I’m not too impressed with him. I don’t see any reason to think he’d be better than just going with someone like Murphy and finding a cheaper RH lefty masher.

I like the idea of getting Harrang or Arroyo with Phillips, but it wouldn’t be a zero cost package, Carter and Parnell wouldn’t be enough. They have Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso, they have no reason to like Carter. Parnell’s a decent starting point, but they’d probably want someone like Ruben Tejada. They don’t have any real SS prospects and will likely be looking at someone short-term like Orlando Cabrera this year if they decide to try and upgrade over Janish.

Problem is, Mets first have to unload Castillo. Even if they manage to unload his entire salary, taking on Harrang and Phillips would mean another $20 mil in salary, minus Castillo, that might only leave $5-10 mil left to spend. It probably makes more sense to offer the Reds a slightly better prospect package and see if they’ll eat some contract, leaving room to add a midrange outfielder and SP, maybe Cameron and Piniero or something.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 25, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Why exactly would the Marlins non-tender Uggla?

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 25, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

I read in four places that the Marlins want to trade him but no one wants him and his

want to trade him but no one wants him and his contract. However, they have a great kid in AAA who they want to play 2b who would be miles cheaper than Uggla. Uggla is due between $7-8. Sorry, turns out its just Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal reporting this.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida ($5.35 million last season):

He has OPS’ed over .800 in each of his first four seasons;
His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped in each of the last three seasons;
His batting average dropped to .243 this season, a career low, but his on-base percentage almost held steady — and his batting average on balls in play dropped by 50 points, a sign he ran into some bad luck;
He played third base in the minor leagues almost as much as he played second base.

If the Red Sox decide to jettison Mike Lowell or to play him more at designated hitter than at third base, Uggla could be an intriguing option.

by scott from peekskill on Nov 25, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

They won't non-tender him

He has trade value. If they offered him up for a B-level prospect, they’d have teams knocking down their door for him, especially AL teams with corner infield vacancies and no full time DHes.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 26, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

And also

Who do the Marlins have in Triple-A who can play 2B? I don’t see anyone of note. Their top prospects are all corner guys and pitchers, plus Skipworth, a catcher. Chris Coghlan’s played mostly 2B in the minors, is that who you mean? He just won NL ROY as an outfielder, but he could probably move back to 2B, but then they’ll only have one MLB tested starting outfielder, Cody Ross. They could probably stick Maybin in center, and Mike Stanton will be a beast of a corner outfielder eventually, but he’ll need at least another year in the minors. It’d have to either be Coghlan or Bonifacio at 2B if they moved Uggla. I’m not saying the Marlin don’t want to move him, but he’ll almost certainly get a contract offer if they can’t move him by the arb deadline, and if it comes to it and they really want to move him, they’ll lower their demands to roughly the value of two first round draft picks, which is what they’d likely get if they held onto him and let him hit FA as a Marlin.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 26, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Other 2B

What about, in declining order:
Juan Uribe
Adam Kennedy
Mark Loretta

Especially on a one-year deal, I like either of the first two instead of Castillo. Loretta, I simply wonder about the everyday load.

by Howard Megdal on Nov 24, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions

None of them, I would say, are worth paying, in addition to Castillo.

The only way we’re getting rid of Castillo is by eating most or all of his contract. None of the above, I don’t think, are dynamic enough to make a massive, noticeable upgrade at second. By signing one of them, we’ll be paying for just around the same amount of offense and defense at around one-and-a-half or two times the money that we are right now (Castillo’s $6 million + $3-$6 million for any of those mentioned, plus or minus).

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 24, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

yeah I agree

I like Urbie and/or Kennedy but not enough to pay them and Castillo.

by Endys Game on Nov 24, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

I'm interested in seeing whether Polanco/Lopez get offered arbitration

by Gina on Nov 24, 2009 11:57 AM EST reply actions

if Polanco doesn't get offered arbitration

I think he is a no-brainer for the Mets to acquire. And I am not at all sure he will be offered arbitration.

by Endys Game on Nov 24, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Polanco frightens me

because of the sheer size of his dome. It’s a freakin’ Sputnik. Seems to be getting larger each year too. It’s gonna splatter all over Manhattan.

What about Fontenot from the Cubs? He pretty much lost his starting job, maybe they could get him on the cheap from Chicago?

by Mackey Sasser on Nov 24, 2009 11:59 AM EST reply actions

He could wear David Wright's helmet.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 24, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

i was going to say

is Luis wearing Wright’s superdome in that picture? that thing will interfere with cell reception. Or is his head shrinking?

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 24, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

Helmet specially designed for him.

When there is a popup, he can take the helmet off and “catch” the ball with it. It’s so big it’s fool proof.

by Michkin on Nov 24, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Or, at the very least, it'll cause so much wind drag that he won't be able to get to the ball, and someone else with surer hands will handle it.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 24, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe he was trying it on or something

Its definitely not his normal helmet. Look at the caption

Ludicrous speed, Go!

Someone’s a Mel Brooks fan.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 24, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

If it's just Pelfrey, then this doesn't really apply:

“If they recognize how important infield defense is to a groundball pitcher like Mike Pelfrey (and free agent groundballer Joel Pineiro, if they elect to show interest in him) they’ll be even more compelled to replace Castillo.”

Presumably the Mets are thinking of going with a cheap glove wizard in the backup MI spot. In that case, the wiz can start when Pelfrey does. You’ll want to give the elderly Castillo a day off at least once a week anyway, so there’s not much downside to this defensive platoon.

Bill James claimed in one of the abstracts that “there’s a defensive cost to platooning in the middle of the diamond”, but I don’t know how true that is, particularly if it’s a defensive rather than a RH-LH platoon. Does anyone know?

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 24, 2009 6:16 PM EST reply actions

Just judging by the quote here

I think what James is saying is that most MIs are not equal defensively, and defense is often considered more important at those positions, so any platoon situation is going to produce an average defensive level that is below the quality of the better defensive player and above that of the worse defensive player, and that the advantage of offensive platoon splits might not be enough to make up for the disadvantage of having to average in the weaker defensive player.

In the case of a defensive platoon, I think the assumption is that the defensive specialist isn’t good enough offensively to justify the defensive addition except in situations where you have a pitcher who relies heavily on grounders, like Pelfrey does.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 24, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions