Re-Signing Alex Cora
by Sam Page on Nov 26, 2009 5:46 AM EST
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PrintLast season, Alex Cora was a replacement level player (literally 0 WAR), but earned $2 million. Many fans, myself included, came to loathe Cora, as he played horribly down the stretch. I didn't want him back at any salary. However, facing the very real possibility that the Mets will resign Cora, maybe for the exact same figure, I've reevaluated his play and slightly changed my position.
As a hitter, Cora looked pretty good at the beginning of the season. Many lauded his ability to work the count, and he did finish the year with a decent 8.4% walk rate. Through May 17, he had a .886 OPS, then missed 2 weeks on the disabled list with a torn thumb ligament on his left hand. Instead of opting for surgery, however, he played through the injury as an everyday shortstop until August 12th, when he tore the ligament in his other thumb. From May 17-August 12, he hit .232/.290/.277. While I'm not suggesting his true talent is an .886 OPS and an injury dragged him all the way down to his final .610 mark, gripping the bat with one working hand probably negatively affected his performance. Going forward, I'd expect last year's performance with a little more power, somewhere in between his 2008 and 2009, ~.300 wOBA. As James texted me at 3 AM, that doesn't really pass the gut check with his career-wOBA being .290. Looking at his component skills, however, I think his BB% rate, which fluctuated a bit during his career as a regular, has made a sustained improvement, typical of a player of his age:
In fact, he might have matched his 2008 rate if he didn't exhibit such an uncharacteristic free-fall toward the end of the season:
Again, this kind of improvement is not unusual for a a player of his age and skill set, and all I'm projecting is a repeat of his 2009 BB% with a slight increase in power.
Defensively, UZR rated Cora as below average at both SS and 2B, but we know in such small sample sizes, UZR can be an unreliable indicator of future performance. Jeff Zimmerman's age-adjusted UZR projections project Cora as a -1 UZR/150 defender at both SS and 2B. Given back-up duty, that would make Cora's fielding mostly neutral over the course of the season. As corroboration for that projection, check out Cora's defense according to John Dewan's +/-:
Plus/minus particularly likes his shortstop defense, ranking him as positive last year.
Considering the above, Cora's true talent as a back-up middle infielder is in the 0.5-0.7 range. While there are some utility infielders of arguably equal or better talent that get paid less, I won't complain if the Mets want to pay a slight premium for a player they think has an added intangible value.
Happy Thanksgiving.
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Several Things
a) I’m glad you addressed my 3 AM text. I still don’t see a .300 wOBA, considering his 2009, his career mark, his Bill James projection (.275) and his Chone projection which appears to be about .290. Projection is all about conservatism.
b) The 0.5-0.7 WAR seems quite generous. Again, projection is all about being conservative, something I know you know and have seen you practice in the past. His BaseballProjection WAR going backward from 2008, in part-time duty: 0.1, 0.3, -0.6. Fangraphs WAR: 0.0, 0.7, 0.6, 0.1. I dunno, just seems generous to declare his true talent level at 0.5-0.7.
c) If you have no problem signing Alex Cora for $2 million, why was he not featured here? Is he preferable to Adam Everett for $1 million? I’m confused.
d) Reports say the Mets might only have $20 million to spend. Alotting $2 million of that to Cora seems silly and I’m surprised to see you write it.
e) From here:
Instead, the Mets will stick to slot in those rounds and spend $2 million on Alex Cora. It’s a joke, and shows a complete lack of understanding of value on the part of the Mets.
I want no part of encouraging such behavior.
by James Kannengieser on Nov 26, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions
He did say he changed his position slightly
so when Sam made his offseason plan, he probably still “loathed” Cora
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
-
a) this isn’t a “projection” in the computer-modeled conservative sense, it’s just my estimation of what he’ll do next season. Also, surely you recognize that those projections heavily weight his most recent season, in which he was injured.
b) WAR is not a very predictive stat, in that it deals with measures like uzr and babip that are highly variable from year-to-year. One of the more grating statistical “practices,” along with identifying every swing in babip as luck, is when people project performance purely on war without looking at the components. To this point, you have presented no specific disagreements with my analysis of his component stats.
c) just because I don’t think it’s a bad idea first mean it’s what I’d do.
d) see above, I don’t run this team. This is written in the context of what I expect them to do.
e) Im not sure how saying Cora is worth 2MM means I don’t want to spend slot in the draft. The red sox payed Cora 2MM and busted slot.
by Sam Page on Nov 26, 2009 12:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think you're over estimating his true talent level
and especially considering other options that could be had for 400K, it’s stupid to spend that much on Cora. That said, I appreciate you at least trying to put a positive spin on this.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Signing Alex Cora is more defensible than bringing back Elmer DessensOmar Minaya.
Fixed that for ya
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
2010 payroll
the wilpon’s will only spend between 20-25m./ please come up with some sensible moves the mets can make i.e a corner OF a !B replacement or someone to platoon with murphy and a #2 and #3 SP When your finished /do the math and make sure you come in on budget
I think the Mets have at least
$40 million to spend this off season
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
its 40 million if they keep around the same budget as last year
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport"
Yeah.
Gina, even with the contract extensions and escalations, our current salary commitments are around $100 mil. So that’s about $40 mil, maybe a bit less, but definitely closer to $40 mil than $20 mil.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Also
Assuming the organization isn’t having financial difficulties, and the goal is once again to stay comfortably under the luxury tax line, thats closer to $170 mil this year than $160 mil. Plus the guys with backloaded contracts like Wright and Reyes are now above their AAV instead of below, so their payroll value as assessed for luxury tax purposes is about $9 mil and $5 mil, respectively (as it would be every year under their current contracts), as opposed to the $10 mil and $9 mil they’ll make this year (they made $7.5 mil and $5.75 mil last year). So as far as the luxury tax goes, assuming that’s really the holdback in making big expenditures, the contract escalations are kind of a good thing.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 26, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Really most of the reports I saw last year had only 13 million total coming off
when you counted for escalations, is that counting arbitration eligble players too?
I think a lot of that
Was assuming the Mets were responsible for things like Wags’ buyout and that they picked up Putz’s option. And who are the big arb cases this year? Francoeur? He’s not going to get a huge raise, he had a solid year with the Mets, but his overall season was still pretty blah. Maine was another guy we thought might get a lot more money, but that’s not going to happen now, he’ll be lucky to get any kind of raise at all. Pagan’s in his first year as a super-two and has only one fullish season, he’ll crack $1 mil, but not by much. And then its relievers like Feliciano and Green. None of these guys are getting more than a 500k-$1 mil raise or so, and the total isn’t going to amount to much more than $3-4 million at most in arb raises.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 26, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I mean, the thing is
A lot of the raises that are on the books were already on the books, so the AAV of those guys’ contracts doesn’t change for luxury tax purposes, so if that is really the big holdup in spending, not much is really changing in terms of the payroll value for luxury tax purposes aside from the arb raises, which isn’t much at all. So the money like Delgado, Wagner, and Putz that’s coming off the books really does add up.
Now, if the team is really hurting because of Madoff, a theory that seems to have been pretty solidly debunked, that’s a different story.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 26, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I make it around $46 million
Using Cot’s baseball contracts website, and comparing last year’s payroll of $149 million versus actual obligations for 2010 of $93 million, then making reasonable assumptions about arb and raises adds $10 million to that figure.
I think the Wilpons are nuts not to go to $150 million in 2010. There’s no luxury tax at that level and the team’s got enough pieces to go deep into the postseason with the right additions.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 27, 2009 1:27 AM EST up reply actions
Plus
Arbitration payroll values are based on AAV, not actually salaries. A few years ago, this was a problem, but now, for luxury tax purposes, guys like Wright, Reyes, and Beltran area all making significantly more than their AAVs for their current contracts, so the luxury tax payroll consideration is actually about $10 mil less that estimated. The only guy whose slightly under his AAV is Johan, but thats only by $1 mil at most. All the “bad contract” guys like Castillo and Perez don’t have backloaded contracts, so its not a problem. Even Frankie’s above his AAV, since 2012 is an option year, not a guaranteed year.
I really don’t see why business shouldn’t operate as normal this offseason, i.e. the organization needs to find a way to fill the seats with all the butts they lost from a lost 2009 season, and there’s not much risk in spending. They’ve made a ton of money over the last few years, despite the disappointing results. They really have closer to $50-60 mil before they have to start worrying about the luxury tax, and even if they crossed that boundary, it’d be the first time and the penalty would be minimal. If there’s ever a time where such a decision would be ideal, it would be now, when the organization is going to lose a lot of ticket plan customers if they don’t do something significant this offseason to build a competitive team. 2007-2009, they were still riding the “just misses” of all the previous seasons, so the built in marketability stuck to a degree. After 2009, its not going to, unless the franchise does something to convince the fanbase that they’ve done something to build, at the very least, an entertaining product.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 27, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions
Gotta be
another aging veteran or young AAAA guy that wants a bench role and is better and cheaper than Cora…gotta be. That is whom you ask? Not sure, but 0WAR is not, in my opinion, worth resigning at $2mil.
being pro-Turkey, I will not wish you happy thanksgiving you blood thirsty bastards! Go turkeys!
by scott from peekskill on Nov 26, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions
I don't NOT want to see Alex Cora resigned.
He was decent, as a back-up player. When he began playing every day, his flaws got exposed and exploited, and his injuries certainly didn’t help. We can assume that Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo will both be healthy next season, meaning that Cora will play less at 2b and/or short, and his weaknesses will be less apparent. It’s his potential salary that’s the heart of the problem. When we have a limited budget, we can’t throw away $2 million +/- to a back-up guy. That kind of nickle and diming limits the amount we can throw at the big FAs who will have the most impact on the team.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 26, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
This
Salary is the sticking point.
by James Kannengieser on Nov 26, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
rec'd
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 26, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I'll complain if they pay premium for a player not worth it
When they turn around and can’t sign better players to better deals because “they can’t afford it”, like last year with Abreu.
I think Sam's ignoring the real possibility that Cora is again thrust into semi-regular duty, given Reyes' leg injuries
Plus there’s every chance that the staff has three ground ball pitchers on it (Niese, Pelf, Piniero) exacerbating the need for a defensive asset. -1 UZR at SS sounds too optimistic when the projection for 2B is the same. How does that make sense?
Happy Thanksgiving. James K stop trolling people late at night.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Nov 26, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions
I'd rather get Adam Everett
For the money, if one of the guys go down we need a good glove for backup, or even for late inning backup to give Jose some rest when we’re ahead. I’d rather have a light hitting gold glove for backup than a light hitting mediocre fielder for backup.
but but but
Cora brings intangibles
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 26, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
I have no evidence that Alex Cora brings the kind of intangibles to the Mets
that wins games. Nor have I heard testimony to that effect. No one I know of has been reported as saying, “Alex’s confidence in me turned my season around. Until that tete a tete we had in April I was lost at the plate, but he told me to go up there and attack the first pitch…” etc etc. Doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, but if it has we haven’t heard about it. And given the fragility and age of the Mets MI Cora seems like exactly the kind of guy you don’t want to sign as a backup: aging, coming off an injury, no longer particularly good in the field.
Add to Cora Jeff Francoeur’s $3.5 million salary, and you’re getting up around the price of a real major league regular—someone who could fill a real hole in the lineup with tangible skills, like Adam La Roche’s decent power and plate discipline, or Jon Garland’s durability.
wow you had me
until you started talking about Jon Garland and Adam LaRoche. Listen people, I don’t particularly want Cora; I’m just remarking that he’s not as bad as I originally thought.
I wasn't pushing them as terrific players, believe me
but just as the useful upgrades any team with gigantic holes in the roster can make if they have in the neighborhood of $5-6 million to spend and spend it sanely. Much as I’d like to, I know I can’t sign Holliday or Lackey for that kind of money.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 27, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I thought Alex Cora was the most proffesional of all the Mets last year. Allways in the right place on defense, trying to take the walk,(probably in part because of the torn ligament in his finger) putting off his surgery when Reyes was finally put on the DL but frankly I’m shocked that any defensive metric would have him even close to average at SS last year and especially going to his left. With Reyes health a question and Castillo or whoever playing 2nd range has to be the most important quality for the Met backup middle infielder. I’d love to have Everitt and would give him 2 years with a club option to get him.
You do have to give him credit for playing through the injury(ies)
but the most professional? Frankly, I think the majority of the Mets players were professional.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
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