No Holliday Or Lackey? No Problem!
by James Kannengieser on Nov 27, 2009 12:00 AM EST
93 comments
Bill Madden at the Daily News recently wrote that the Mets will be looking to cut payroll this offseason. If true, this is bad news for anyone hoping to see Matt Holliday, John Lackey or Jason Bay in a Mets uniform. Madden's estimate that there will only be $20 million available to spend on free agents seems a little low, but a $40 million estimate seems too high. If none of the big three free agents are signed there would likely be an uproar from the talk radio faction of the Mets fanbase. However, the offseason could very well be a success without signing any long term, ~$100 million contracts.
Working with a payroll around $15 million less than last year's ($147 million) I created an offseason plan. This is not a personal offseason plan, i.e. what I would do in fantasy GM world. There are several offseason questions which appear to have all-but-certain answers. Jeff Francoeur and John Maine will be back. Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan and Tim Redding will likely not be back (at least on the major league Mets). Sean Green should and probably will be back but that's no lock. This plan considers all of these, as well as certain hot stove rumors, such as the team's desire to move Luis Castillo and interest in adding some power to the lineup. Here is the roster, including 2010 salary and conservative projected WAR:
The first move is trading Castillo for Milton Bradley, with the Cubs picking up some of Bradley's salary. His durability is a major issue but a corner outfield rotation of Bradley, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Eric Hinske (signed for 1 year, $1.5 million) and even Daniel Murphy would keep everyone fresh and allow for platoon opportunities.
Castillo's replacement at 2nd base is free agent Adam Kennedy, for 1 year and $3 million. This provides a defensive upgrade and a slight offensive downgrade. Adam Everett is the new backup middle infielder, for 1 year and $1 million. His UZR projection, per Jeff Zimmerman at BtB, is an outstanding +9 or +12 UZR/150. Should Jose Reyes have trouble returning from injury, Everett can be relied on to play everyday.
Even at 38 years old, Gregg Zaun can likely be counted on for 1-2 WAR and a 1 year, $2 million contract should be sufficient to secure him. First base was tough to determine, with Carlos Delgado and a Murphy/Nick Evans platoon also considered. I'd like to avoid farm system draining trades for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Adam LaRoche is almost a sure bet for 25 home runs, an .830 OPS and 140+ games played a year. The same can't be said about the other free agent options (Nick Johnson, Russell Branyan) so LaRoche's stability is welcome in a lineup featuring some risks (Bradley, Pagan, Francoeur). It would probably take a multi-year deal to sign LaRoche and 2 years, $16 million gets it done here.
Eric's post about free agent pitchers made me think a little more about Jon Garland, a pitcher I previously wanted no part of. For 2 years, $12 million Garland would likely be worth more than his salary and provide some consistency (yes, consistency) to a staff that lacked it in 2009. The other major pitcher signings are John Smoltz and Justin Duchscherer for relatively cheap. Each has experience pitching out of the bullpen as well as the rotation and considering their age and/or durability issues this would help limit injury risk. Duchscherer's listed salary might be a little low but keep in mind he hasn't pitched in a year and has some off-the-field issues. Ben Sheets is also intriguing, and might be a smart signing when paired with someone reliable like Garland. Will Ohman is included as a possible scrap heap signing but Adam Bostick is another option. Kevin Gregg and Bob Howry are two other free agent relievers worth tracking.
This looks like an 88-93 win team, depending on how Reyes and Santana rebound, and whether the Smoltz and Duchscherer signings pan out well. If the Mets reduce payroll this drastically there would be justifiable outrage from the fanbase. However, the main point of this exercise is to demonstrate that Omar Minaya and the front office can have a successful offseason without making any big splash signings. Taking risks on low-cost, high-reward players and not overpaying players coming off career years (see: Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis) are two ways an offseason without Holliday or Lackey can work.
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Blech
I hope not, he was pretty much terrible at everything
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 27, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I just threw up in my mouth a little when I saw this team
Bradley for Castillo I could live with, but then the things get ugly.
The Mets, for better or worse, appear to want Molina the most, and I don’t know who else will sign him. I personally think Zaun is not capable of being a starter on any team and that he will be just as bad as Schneider was this year if we try to make him one.
The Mets aren’t going to get LaRoche unless they trade away Davis because they feel certain he will be ready by 2011. They definitely wouldn’t do 2 years.
Kennedy isn’t the worst pickup, so long as his defense isn’t slipping (for some reason I feel I read that somewhere).
I don’t mind Garland too much, though he wouldn’t be the number 2 starter.
I like Duscherer, but as a starter (and think we could sign him) and I like Smoltz, but as the set-up man because I don’t think he is capable of starting all year.
Ohman is going to cost more money than that.
Hinske strikes out too much, in my opinion, to be good off the bench. I just don’t think that is a good combo; you want someone to come in off the bench to put the ball in play and make something happen, not strikeout.
And finally, why do people keep thinking that Ollie can be used out of the pen? Walks don’t work anywhere, but especially not in the pen. If he can’t start, we will have to release him and bite the bullet of his remaining contract.
Davis isn't locked into first
Scouting reports have said he could play an adequate rf, IMO if he can provide average right field defense he’d been more valuable there.
How do scouts determine a 1B could play RF?
And why RF over LF, where most converted infielders go?
And why is he more valuable there? I know there are a lot of great 1B in the majors, but it is unlikely the Mets can get any of them and Davis could be theirs.
Also, do you see the Mets moving Davis so they can have LaRoche?
You're thinking too short term
Davis would fill a hole at 1st base, but he’d be more valuable at RF in the long-term. He has the arm for RF.
Laroche wouldn’t be my first choice—but on a 2-yr contract he only blocks Davis for one year tops, and it wouldn’t hurt to leave Ike in the minors one more year to develop and delay his ML service time.
by DoghouseBlues on Nov 27, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
again why?
Why more value in RF? And have people seen him throw from the outfield or something? Does he have a gun for an arm and can throw it really accurate or something? Also, does he have the range to play OF? How can we say he could provide average D in RF when we haven’t seen him play there?
And, I am not thinking short term, rather long term. I think Davis could be our long-term answer at 1B, like Wright and Reyes at 3B and SS.
Finally, if Davis continues to dominate the minors next year then the only benefit of keeping him in the minors an additional year would be so he could learn RF. Or we could have a cheap long-term answer at 1B for 2011.
But it's not like we have any long-term answers for rf either
And generally it’s easier to find average answers for 1b than it is for rf. And if nothing else we’d be better off with an average first basemen and an above average right fielder than an average first basemen and frenchy in rf.
Sign Holliday
and Fernando in right
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Well the title of this plan is no Holliday (no Lackey) no problem
So we’re talking in context of Holliday not being an option.
he has a really, really good arm, apparently.
He pitched in college, and before he broke out this year and was still struggling, several scouts thought he should be converted into a pitcher full time.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Davis should be a first baseman
I’ve read he’s a plus defender and TotalZone had him 8 runs/150 in A+ this year, but -2 runs in AA. But should he move, he was a pitcher in college so he has tremendous arm strength. I’ve read some people think his arm is wasted at first base. And I want no part of LaRoche. I’d rather have Nick Johnson on a one year deal.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Johnson/Laroche
I wish we could get Johnson for his first half until his inevitable injury, and laroche for his patented second half run. .305/.413/.425 1st half for Johnson, .311/.377/.538 2d half for Laroche. Oh well.
So you want
Nicdam JohnRoche?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Definitely
Nick Johnson is far and away my first choice too (1 year + team option @ 5-8m per year. It’s just too good of a bargain to pass up. He may be injury prone, but his 2-year injury seemed more like a freak accident, so I think he’s still a good bet for 120 games.
by DoghouseBlues on Nov 27, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
He's more valuable at rf
Because 1b is an easier position to play. Adequate defense in rf with + offense for rf is more valuable than adequate defense at first with average offense for first base. And yes he has an adequate gun like someone else mentioned he was a pitcher in college. And notice I said if he can provide adequate defense in rf, like you said he’s still two years away which means if they’d give him a chance that’s two years for them to see him in rf.
He's slow and will probably have poor outfield range
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
frenchy has poor range
but a cannon arm, the point is he’d be a major upgrade over our current option.
I understand the thought
But I don’t think his value changes much between 1B and RF. He’s considered a pretty good defensive first baseman, and if he’s five runs better at first base defensively, that essentially makes up for the positional adjustment. And for what its worth, TotalZone puts him at +5 so far in the 167 games he’s played at 1B in his pro career. Its really just a question of where the better opportunity to improve otherwise is, COF or 1B. The 1B market isn’t exactly flooded this offseason, but there are some pretty good outfielders available. Next offseason has some of both. If we nabbed Carlos Pena or Derek Lee, moving Davis to RF would probably be fine, but someone like Carl Crawford or even ::puts on flamesuit:: Jayson Werth might be a better choice anyway.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 27, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
actually
now I see where people are getting this idea from, I think.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=davis
Says he has great instincts in the OF and would have no problem covering the ground. Also says he could reach 87 mph on the radar gun so his arm is awesome. I still think I would rather have him at 1B longterm than RF
The reason he gets talked about as a RFer as opposed to a LFer
Is because he has a really strong arm (he was also a LHP in college and got attention as one), that some people feel gets “Wasted” at 1B. But we know that range is a more important factor at most defensive positions than arm accuracy/strength, and Davis is considered a plus defensive first baseman. He’s more athletic than a lot of the first baseman from 2008’s first round, and he’s a true lefty, meaning he fields with a glove on his right hand, an advantage defensively at first base, not so much anywhere else. If David Wright wasn’t a Met, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a shot at 3B with his arm.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 27, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that range is more important and he'll likely be a plus first basemen
I mean if they have considerable financial restraints, like the context of this plan, over the next few years a combination of Laroche at first and Davis in rf is probably better than Davis at first and Frenchy in right field. Unless Davis is just absolutely horrible defensively in rf his plus bat will make up for it.
That's true
I like this plan, assuming the Mets would be willing to sign both LaRoche and Holliday this offseason.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 27, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well if the mets sign Holliday
then it’s different since I assume F-mart would be eventually taking over the other of spot. I meant if the mets don’t sign Holliday and are left with just Frenchy and F-mart, and I guess Pagan, as of options for the next few years.
Zaun>Molina
Zaun 2009: .334 wOBA, 1.8 Defensive Runs (according to driveline) 2010 wOBA projected by Bill James:.316
Molina: 2009: .308 wOBA, -3.4 defensive runs, .310 projected wOBA
Zaun played 90 games last year and would be fine platooning with Santos.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 27, 2009 6:26 AM EST up reply actions
I said for better or worse
I started out preferring Molina to all else, but now feel he would just be overpaid. I just don’t think we should go after a 38 year old catcher who has caught a lot and probably can’t hit .250 anymore. Take away his ability to draw walks and he suddenly loses a lot of value, right? I am just afraid that will happen when pitchers figure out they don’t need to be afraid of his bat. Zaun would just be Brian Schneider again. Or another way to think of it, Zaun would be like another Castillo with a lower average and may hit a HR or 2 whereas Molina would be like Francoeur but slow.
I don’t really want either on my team, I was just saying that: rumors are the Mets seem to prefer Molina, the only competition would seem to be the Giants (who I don’t think will offer arbitration anyway) and I am guessing the Mets would add a second year whereas it’s been made clear that the Giants won’t, so it appears to me Molina will be a Met
Walking is usually a consistent ability
What makes you think Molina can hit any better than Zaun? And we know Molina can’t draw a walk, Molina has no value and will be grossly overpaid.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
what about Thole?
Can’t he platoon with Santos (if we have to keep Santos)? Is his d to weak still? Or just more minor league time needed?
That's a good question about his D
minorleaguesplits hasn’t updated their catcher D section for him.
He's still raw defensively
He needs another season in the minors
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'd Like To Offer A Counter Piece
I like what you did, and I’m going to develop my own plan and stay within that same $130.7 million dollar budget you worked on. Obviously, I’m not going to be using WAR as a determining factor, but I will use more traditional evaluation methods and 1 or 2 advanced metrics. I’d like to see how the two teams match up and see what both our readers think about the two plans head to head. Again, nice job.
as long as RBI's aren't a determining factor
I’m in
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 27, 2009 6:27 AM EST up reply actions
this years free agents suck to put it in plain english. they are not worth the money that would have to be allocated to sign them.in the next 2 years the crop of potential free agents will be much better and worth the 15 to 20 mil.a season to sign them. i believe you over pay for super stars but not over pay for stars lackey bay holliday are stars good players not franchise players.
Holliday is the best left fielder in baseball
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Who are the potential free agents due the next two years?
Most teams are locking up their young players long-term, I’d seriously doubt if free agent classes got significantly better down the road.
Joe Mauer!!
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I imagine if the Twins don't lock him up long-term
It’s because his back problems have become a major concern. Maur is otherworldly now, but a catcher in his late 20s who already has a history of back problems isn’t necessarily a premium free agent.
Move him to first, then?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 27, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
But then how much value does he lose?
Is he still a top-flight free agent, the kind you bust the bank for/better than a guy like Holliday is right now. Obviously right now his bat would play anywhere, but we’re talking a year from now and a position change. And that’s only one guy, if we have a chance to grab Holliday now I don’t think it makes sense to pass on the chance Mauer might hit free agency, and we might be able to sign him.
Plus I really think he’ll resign with the twins, he’s a local guy and I think the twins would be willing to break the bank, at least in terms of their payroll, for him and I think he’d be willing to give them a discount. Especially moving into a new ballpark, his value to him goes beyond just how awesome he is on the field, he’s the face of the franchise.
In terms of WAR
Catcher to first base is a 25 run or 2.5 win difference. Let’s assume he’d be a plus 5 defender at first just for the purposes here, and say he’d lose 2 wins. This year he’d was an 8.2 WAR player so he’d have been a 6.2 WAR player. That is still elite level play.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
But Holliday is close to that isn't he?
Plus there’s the fact there’s a good chance 8.2 WAR is his peak and it’d be hard to expect him to maintain that 2 years from now.
Here's a list of 2011 free agents
here, outside of Maur the only big names who wont already be in their mid 30s are Crawford, Cain, who has an option for 2011, our very own Jose Reyes who also has an option.
I guess you don't think the Cards buyout Pujols contract, huh?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I actually missed him I was skimming for players in their 20s still
But yeah I don’t think there’s any chance of that.
wait what?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 27, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
creative plan
I hope Omar reads this, but it seems like this would be way above his ambition or capabilities. Mets don’t get better until he is gone. Wilpons need to clean house and start anew.
i really dont like this plan
way too many risks…we’d only end up winning 90 games with this team if absolutely everything worked out perfectly
"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner
Just Shoot Me
If this is what it’s come to, just kill me now, please, I beg you.
by RetireNumber17 on Nov 27, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions
Not to disrespect your plan, mind you ...
It’s not terrible, given your self-imposed limitations. But just the idea that the Mets—the NEW YORK Mets, playing in the biggest market in baseball—are reduced to such bottom-feeding, makes me want to puke.
by RetireNumber17 on Nov 27, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Revolver, knife, rope, candlestick, wrench or lead pipe?
by James Kannengieser on Nov 27, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
castillo for bradley is a terrible trade/ the only way i’d take bradley is if they would take ollie in exchange.(and i’d prefer to trade castillo for a bag of balls and open up a spot for hudson) Also why is frenchy sitting on the bench/ a 4m back up is pretty expensive(if you don’t want him as a regular then trade him). and why don’t we just platoon thole and santos (or find out what the pirates want for doumit) also I’d rather sign delgado to a 1yr contract with lots of incentives to platoon at 1b with murphy(he plays great for manuel). Omar should also look into what it will cost to bring back nady and endy.
what will it cost to get n morgan from the nats(pagan and niese) 50 sb a .300ba and good defense at 0.5M would be a cheap addition
I’d love to sign sheets for 1 yr and see what he’s got left/but so do a lot of other teams.
Couldnt Agree More!!!
This is an awful, awful, awful trade! It takes away a moderately priced 2b and brings back an oft injured cancer. To even mention this here is quite simply Retarded (hope you noticed the capital R). No way is this going to happen and if it did then we as Mets fans should be pissed.
The Holliday market is falling softly into our hands and the Wilpons are salivating at the prospect of declaring “See, we got you the best free agent money can buy!”
No frickin way Cancerman is in LF next season.
Rethink this post
by scott from peekskill on Nov 27, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
it seems Metsmerized/Metsblog
has invaded AA
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 27, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I dont get annoyed
But to me the Bradley trade is just plain bad. The money $16m next year and 2011 is way to much for such an injury risk and a pain in the ass. Even if the Cubs kick in the difference in $$$ from Castillo’s contract it is still bad. Pagan in LF and Franceuorission in RF appeals more to me than Bradley anywhere and I am not a Francgrission fan.
Perhaps we need to be more imaginative and creative (but not crazy) in our ideas for trades.
by scott from peekskill on Nov 27, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
The great thing about Amazin' Avenue
Anyone can write-up their own thoughts in something we call “FanPosts”. In fact there was a contest called AAOP where dozens of readers came up with their own ideas and wrote them up in (mostly) coherent posts. Commenters provided feedback without calling each other “Retarded” and eventually a winner will be declared. To sum up – if you want to be creative or imaginative with trade proposals, the floor is yours.
by James Kannengieser on Nov 27, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
My apologies
After rereading my comments I apologize. The post was well thought out and my post does read as if I am attacking and for that I am sorry.
I was just shocked at the idea of no big names coming to us over the offseason. I should not ever react with comments like “retard” even if it is pointed at a post and not a person.
Yes, my reply belongs on another blog, not here.
by scott from peekskill on Nov 27, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
Question regarding Castillo for Bradley
If we paid some/most of Castillo’s salary and took Bradley off their hands would the Cub catcher Soto be someone they would discuss and if so at what cost? (Francouer) If not at the least, they could throw in say Chris Robinson 26 yr old catcher at AAA (rule 5 elg) And IF Texas does have interest in Bradley again could we broker him back to the Rangers for one of their young catchers (Teagarden) ? again helping out with some salary. In essence buying 2 young catching prospects and the year and a half or so it will take for Thole to be ready behind the plate. Then having Thole and the better of the two for years to come and a young under control catcher to trade for another piece when another team has a need at catcher.
My two cents
First off… no way in hell would I want Bradley. Keep Francour in RF where he belongs and keep Pagan in LF or go after Dunn or Burrell on a trade.
Second, like Kennedy, even if its a one year fix.
Catcher I like Santos and Thole. I think we should give these two a shot to see what they can do… what a great opportunity for two players to take a shot.
Starting pitching….
no way is smotlz going to come to NY. I do think Sheets is best. I only wish the Mets capatalized on Capuano before he resigned with the Brewers.
Durscherer is a nice thought, and if healhy, is a nice work horse.
Pedro Martinez would be a nice thought, although I highly think he would want to come back after last years Minayascape.
As for first base, I think LaRoche is definitely a nice touch. And I would rather add a bat who will be with us longer than a year or at least is healthy. With that said, I would honestly love Delgado to come back, but realistically… what would we expect.
With these changes, I believe our payroll would be easy around 125m. That does give us an opportunity to get Halliday, Bay or even Lackey and scratch the thought of Dunn or Burrell in LF.
As for Castillo, trade him to the Royals for Bannister, Jacobs or Butler. Any one of those would be great. Definitely ride the hot hand Castillo provided, and Royals could use a player like Castillo.
Adam Dunn in left field. Brother.
Hmm, maybe Beltran and Pagan could each take half the outfield and Dunn/Francoeur could platoon in the Mo Zone.
by letsgocyclones on Nov 27, 2009 1:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
nice thought
Totally forgot about Nady… a GREAT backup to Bay or Holliday. He proved in the short time he was here he was good for the Mets. To this day, I still wished they had never traded him.
I firmly believe that his trade to Pittsburgh was the downfall of 06. They should have never let him go.
Please. No. Xavier Nady is not good. People, please stop saying this.
Compare his first half stats with his second half stats. There’s a major drop.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 27, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
C
What about Olivo isn’t he a free agent? The Royals didn’t pick up a 3 mil option on him, he make 2.7 last year, and he cranked 23 HRs last yr. Though I wonder if he patched up things with Reyes.
1B
Bring back Delgado, if not signing Laroche, is a safe play. The real play is offering the moon for A Gonzalez. If there is any chance to get a Top 5 guy u GOT TO TAKE IT. Also, he will be cheap for a year.
2B
Is no concern for me, leave Castillo alone.
LF
If u get A Gonzalez, then this spot doesn’t require a top power bat, just a moderate one, perhaps Marlon Byrd. I know he’s a CF, but he has played considerable time in LF.
P
I Think we need to wait for prices to settle and get one of the steadies (Wolf, Garland, Marquis) and one from the scaries (Harden, Sheets, Penny) . Penny is a tweener not good enough for scaries, not durable ebough for steadies.
Lineup
Reyes
Castillo
A Gonzalez
Beltran
Wright
Byrd
Frenchy
Olivo
Staff
Santana
Sheets
Maine
Wolf
Pelfrey
In what world is Adrian Gonzalez a top 5 player in this league?
He’s been a very good player who had a great year in 09. I want a longer history of greatness before I offer the world for a guy. Olivo strikes out way too much and doesn’t walk, and Castillo can’t play defense.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Hmmm
Much props for the creativity, I always enjoy reading these “plans”.
However, as someone stated, this is NY and we do have the biggest NL payroll. The likes of Zaun, Bradley, Garland and Kennedy/Everett would guarantee I will not spend a dime at Citi this year.
I wouldn't mind Zaun and garland
But yeah this is a good plan under financial constraints but if the Omar has to resort to a plan like this then something is majorly wrong with the Wilpons book keeping.
Well actually this plan would be best case scenario
If Omar is put under these type of financial constraints then we’re screwed and should probably just contract to avoid the ensuing humiliation.
This is a creative/interesting plan
But if Wilpon can still afford to sign long-term contracts, then by all means he should do so. As someone stated above, I can only see the proposed team winning 90 games if everything goes perfectly. And when does that happen?
3:45 PM on 10/25/09-changed signature to "Leon Washington for President"
4:45 PM on 10/25/09-Leon Washington suffers season-ending injury
Most likely.
3:45 PM on 10/25/09-changed signature to "Leon Washington for President"
4:45 PM on 10/25/09-Leon Washington suffers season-ending injury
I suppose 88-93 is a big improvement and will cause
ownership to proclaim “mission accomplished”, which will then lead to 3/36 extensions to all eligible ?.
It's a big improvement...
…but will lead to the “if they had signed one more good player they’d have made the playoffs” argument.
(Yes, I realize how silly this thought is at this point in time.)
A few problems with the WAR projections
This is what I have, from my post, using CHONE projections and BtB’s UZR/150 projections (just for position players) with James’s projections in parentheses:
Zaun- 1.6 (1.5)
LaRoche- 0.9 (2)
Kennedy- 0.8 (1.5)
Wright- 4.6 (5.5)
Reyes- 3.7 (4)
Bradley- 2.4 (2.5)
Beltran- 3.5 (5)
Pagan- 0.5 (1.5)
That takes off 5.5 wins.
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport" - Bryan Burwell
That was with CHONE projected PAs
With full playing time (85% of 162 games), I get:
Zaun- 1.4 (1.5)
LaRoche- 1.2 (2)
Kennedy- .9 (1.5)
Wright- 4.2 (5.5)
Reyes- 3.6 (4)
Bradley- 3.4 (2.5)
Beltran- 4 (5)
Pagan- 1.4 (1.5)
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport" - Bryan Burwell
KANNENGEISER is joking
this club would be worse than the ‘09 mets..you’ve got to be kidding…..I’d rather see
everyone go, bring up aa and aaa guys…..than this mess you’re throwing out there.
Yeah, let's get Francouer and Santos back in the mix!!!!!!!!!!1111one
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
This team isn't that good
I’m not sure you can do all that much better, if you are realistic about a $20M budget, as it’s probably going to be tough to top an 85 or 86 win projection. So it’s tempting to be a little too optimistic everywhere to make it look better. What you end up with though is something like a Salami fraud – which is what they call those scams where some computer programmer programs the banks computer to round all fractions of a penny down and deposit the difference into a secret account. All those little thefts add up after a while.
In this case, you have 9 free agents signed for 28.8M, producing +11 WAR. So you are expecting to pay $2.6M per win. The WAR estimates seem high, and some of the costs low. But the net result is a lineup with only really two modest upgrades over what the Mets have now, in La Roche and Bradley, and one is from a trade which I don’t know the Cubs would make. I know they’d swap Bradley for Castillo, but I’m not sure they expect to pick up salary there. I’m sure they know that Bradley is still the better player.
Even so, I think 2.5 WAR might be optimistic at this point for him. Bradley’s knees aren’t what they used to be, and it’s hard to expect more than 450 PA. I’d project him at about +2 WAR, which is still better than Francoeur in that playing time, but that and LaRoche, another +2 WAR guy, are really your only upgrades. Kennedy is a downgrade both offensively and defensively. So you’ve added a total of maybe 1.5 wins by benching Murphy and Francoeur, but probably lose 0.5 wins at 2B.
In the rotation, Garrland is worth a good +1 win over Perez, bu Smolttz at this point is as much a gamble as Perez. He had a 6.35 ERA in his 15 starts last year. On the whole, I think you’ve only added about +2 wins total.
I’d be inclined to keep it simple, though this is still maybe an 86 win team:
Santana
Pineiro – 12M
Maine
Pelfery
Perez Niese/Nieve/Stoner
K-Rod
Parnell
Feliciano
Green
Misch
Anuery Rodriguez
Castillo
Nick Johnson $9M
Wright
Beltran
Reyes
Coco Crisp $6M
Francoeur
Santos
Murphy
Carter
Thole
Pagan
Jeff Fiorentino $1M
OK, I’ve also spent $28M. And, I’m taking some risks, but I think Pineiro is +3 WAR, Johnson +2.5, and Crisp maybe +2, but a bit of a wildcard, as he’s had 3 years in his career with a higher WAR (i.e. over 3.5) than Figgins ever had before 2009.
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