Trading K-Rod?
It wasn't in most of the AAOP's (including mine) but something that could make some sense is sending K-Rod and his $24 million over the next two years somewhere for some prospects. We'd get some much needed farm depth, shed $13m per year, and could replace some bullpen depth on the free agent market at reduced rates.
For example, we trade K-Rod to a team that overvalues closers (especially K-Rod), we get some young pitching prospects, and maybe an OF prospect, and then sign Calero (3m) and Saito or Beimel (2m), and end up with arguably more bullpen depth, young prospects, while still saving 6 or 7m over the next two years to be spent elsewhere. Heck, you could even get all 3 of the relievers above and have money left over.
One downside to the plan is you never want to sell low, and K-Rod's value is probably at its lowest in several years (and could rise again before the July trade deadline). But if he'd net prospects now, it's worth considering.
Thoughts?
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Good idea
His value will never be as high as last year though.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 28, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions
i'd love to
i wish there were teams out there who really wanted him badly enough
Sounds like a plan
But that’ll put us back to square one, where the closer spot will be a big-ass headache for us
Beer is good! And stuff!
1) There’s a handful of teams lining up to gut their farm systems to trade for a starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who they’d then have to sign for 6 years (Halladay).
2) Just because it doesn’t make sense doesn’t mean MLB GM’s won’t do it. Closers are always overrated.
3) I’d be willing to pay part of the contract — whatever’s left over after signing Calero and Saito as potential closers so we break even. It’d still be worth it.
4) If we need to wait til July to do it when his value rises again and some competing team with a bad bullpen gets desperate, that’s fine too.
by saberkeith on Nov 28, 2009 1:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Are there really a handful of teams lining up to gut their farm systems for Halladay?
Most reports seem to say otherwise.
I was going to say
the opposite seems to be the case. The Jays couldn’t move him last year because they felt Halladay was worth a king’s ransom while none of their potential trading partners believed the same. The talk seems to be AT MOST one young ML regular (not a star) and one very strong prospect (but not an absolute can’t miss kind of prospect). No one is going to give up four or five excellent prospects for one year of Halladay and the right to sign him to an extension at something like 5/115.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 28, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
That's just us the yankees and boston
and that’s only because we’re the only teams that can afford him, which is what everyones been saying. And since I don’t see the Yankees or Sox trading for K-rod that just leaves us.
It names the Angels
And this one names the Phils, Dodgers, and Cubs:
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/story/2009/11/20/sp-halladay-trade-talks.html
by saberkeith on Nov 28, 2009 8:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Dodgers have said they wont trade ML- caliber pitching for him.
Phillies dont have the money for Halladay AND Lee
Cubs don’t seem to have the payroll flexibility either…..give it up
I must be missing it.
The Red sox aren’t particularly willing to give up Buchholz and Kelly. No one seems to be willing to gut their farm system, as Gina pointed out.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 29, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
The thing that really makes K-Rod's contract awful is the ridiculous option year
That easily vests if he stays healthy in 2010 and 11. If he finishes 100 games between those two years, the Mets have to carry a $17.5 mil reliever in 2012. Just thinking about it makes me feel dirty.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 28, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
The mets are suckers, they'd certainly take on a contract like K-Rod's
oh wait, what were we talking about?
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Dec 1, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
The $23 million Rodriguez is owed over the next two seasons is bad enough,
but he has a vesting option worth $17.5 million for 2012 that should be giving the Wilpons nightmares.
Nobody would take K-rod for free
let alone give prospects for him.
And even if someone would, Omar would overvalue him and say no.
That's the thing.
If K-Rod hit the open market tomorrow as a FA would ANYONE give him what is effectively a contract for 3/40, let alone trade useful prospects in order to be allowed to sign him to that contract?
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 28, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
No, but if we pay part of it
ie: (K-Rod minus Calero + Saito) or:
$13m/season – (3+3) = $7m leftover
We can pay that portion, break even, have Calero and Saito at reasonable short term contracts with more depth in the pen, and the one or two prospects we get from the dumb team trading with us.
Bill James
Projects an FIP of 3.10 next year, K-Rod’s due to make $11.5 mil. each of the next two years. If that is the case, I guess we can break even value wise (not that I still would have signed him).
If the Mets trade him, it will probably have to be for a player with a similar contract. How about sending him to the Cubs for Kosuke Fukodome? His UZR/150 in 181 games in right is 18.2. Could very well be a 3-4 win player.
by Matt Himelfarb on Nov 28, 2009 12:18 PM EST reply actions
I like this idea
But with a high strikouet, low control pitcher already in Marmol, why would they want K-Rod?
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 28, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Marmol
Had a 20% BB rate last year. That is Ollie numbers right there, although he was around 11-12% in 2007-2008. I could have sworn Cubs fans were tired of him last summer. And for better or worse, Jim Henry is not too swift.
Which begs the question, would the Cubs trade Fukodome for Castillo? Fukodome makes more and has three years left, so we take Fontenot too.
by Matt Himelfarb on Nov 28, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think the problem isn't that 11.5 the next two seasons
It’s that 17 million at the end of the contract.
Love to, but...
1) I don’t think there is any market for him. Unfortunately, and typically, Omar “bought high” after KRod’s big save year.
2) Omar wouldn’t deal KRod because it would basically be admitting he made a big mistake signing him, and Omar never admits mistakes, nor tries to correct them. Omar has to hope that all of his questionable decisions turn to gold in 2010, or he is out of a job.
which pretty much means
you can be damn sure ollie is gonna be in that starting rotation.
As long as his ERA is under 6
he’ll keep starting.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 28, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
The real problem with trying to deal K-Rod now
is that the market is absolutely flooded with much cheaper closers who are probably just as good as K-Rod and will get less risky contracts. Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano are all free agents. So is Billy Wagner, who teams are supposedly viewing as a closer. And for teams looking to invest less money and take on more performance risk, you’ve got Kevin Gregg and Fernando Rodney. Once all those guys find teams, and receive contracts substaintially cheaper than K-Rod, whose going to be left that needs an expensive “proven” closer?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 28, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions
However
I should add, I do think moving K-Rod at some point in the next year is something that should absolutely be explored. I’d be more inclined to wait until either this year’s deadline or next year’s offseason, when late inning relief innings will be harder for other teams to come by. If someone wanted him this offseason, I’d absolutely be open to dealing him, I just don’t think anyone’s really going to want him.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 28, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Regarding the vesting option
It will probably vest unless he gets injured, yes. But what are the chances he gets injured? You have to take into account the following:
1. He has a violent delivery
2. He has pitched for 8 years in the majors and has not suffered a major injury yet (I didn’t look this up so if I am wrong just disregard this one) so there is a good chance that could happen in the next two years.
3. Except for 2005, his WHIP has gone up every year of his career, so perhaps he is getting slopper with his delivery which can equal a shoulder injury.
4. The Mets medical staff is not very good (it is not a coincidence that a third of the guys who played for the Mets this year got hurt).
When you consider the preceding, there is a decent chance that K-Rod will miss enough time not to let that option vest.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
Not that I hope he gets hurt
but it’s a sad commentary on a signing when just about everyone hopes you get kidnapped for a couple of months.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 28, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Its still a HUGE risk that most closers don't have
Plus, from an organizational standpoint, if you’re hoping your own player gets hurt, you’ve probably done something wrong.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want to trade K-Rod
he’s a premier closer
"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner
He's not anymore and even if he was
No player who pitches ~70 innings a year is worth $11.5 million he gets annually and the $17.5 million he’ll get in 2012. I’d much rather have Rafael Soriano for $6 million per year than the ridiculous amount of money we spent on Frankie. His contract was another example of poor money management by Omar.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
i really could care less how much we pay him
we essentially have an unlimited payroll, seeing as we’re in new york
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
Are you on the right blog?
I think you’re thinking of the other NY team, we’re the team that couldn’t afford to pay Abreu 3 million. And that wasn’t even in talks with Burrel, Tex, Dunn, Bradley, basically any free agent after K-rod signed. The unlimited payroll only works if you’re owners go with it, which ours don’t.
But we don't have unlimited payroll
and we could use that money on more important positions.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
a lot of people can close
most of these closers are failed starters who failed because they have 2 good pitches only. The reason why Heilman sucked was his changeup completely failed in ’08.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 29, 2009 7:05 AM EST up reply actions
I may be underestimating some of the more inept MLB front offices...
But I think, provided the Mets pay around $2mil of his salary per year, they could get some teams interested. There is a perception in the MSM, that I feel carries over to some of the more traditional (read:moronic) front offices, that there are a small number of elite closers in the game (Rivera, Papelbon, BB-Rod) that consistently post high save numbers and are absolutely vital to a team. The BB-Rod contract may not seem so bad to them.
Unfortunately, the Mets are obviously one of these teams.
Which office is inept AND can afford to pay him?
And truthfully there’s really not many inept offices left, it’s probably between us and KC for the worst and then I think there’s a big step up to the next ones, maybe Sabean but they can’t afford k-rod.
if we got rid of k-rod
who the hell would be our closer? kiko calero? that’d be funny.
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
We could sign Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano for about half of what we pay Frankie and get similar if not better production.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
And a lower FIP and ERA
and better K/9 and BB/9 rates…
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
and thats what Omar cares about
because those other stats, thats false hustle paperwork. Which I think is the newest AA meme.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 29, 2009 7:05 AM EST up reply actions
kiko calero is not a closer
if we attempted to put him there, that’d be a disaster
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
yeah, ok.
because after all, he obviously lacks the mental fortitude.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
i have no idea of his mental fortitude
all i know is, he’s not that good of a pitcher.. he just had a fluke season last year since oakland is in the weakest division in baseball
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
His Career FIP is 3.29
Frankie’s is 3.00. For 9 million less, I’ll live with the guy who is a little worse.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
yeah i didnt notice that until this morning
why did i never see him pitch this year?
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
if we really need omar to cut salary by trading a dead wheel
then trade reyes to boston for some spects, what ive been telling him to do the whole time
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
You really think Reyes is more replaceable than Frankie?
Lets see, SS on the open market:
Marco Scutaro
Miguel Tejada
Closers
Jose Valverde
Mike Gonzalez
Rafael Soriano
Billy Wagner
Fernando Rodney
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Tejada would be a great replacement for Reyes
the only 2 acceptable replacements for K-Rod would be:
-Mariano Rivera
-Joe Nathan
-Maybe Papelbon or Broxton
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
Es muy loco
I tend to figure that when the Red Sox have a big time need, and they’re not looking at a particular player to fill that need, as a rule of thumb that player at that position isn’t a good idea (see Tejada, Miguel).
Also, K-Rod just ain’t that great, and I can’t imagine what the argument you’re making for him is outside of pure reputation rather than production. He was a mediocre closer, and a bad one on the second half. His peripheral rates are declining, his swinging strikes are declining, the Mets may not have a better reliever on the roster, but I’d take a lot of the FA RP over him at this point. I could see Gonzalez or Soriano being more effective and substantially cheaper over the next 2-3 years, and Valverde a pretty close parallel to Frankie. Wagner’s a wild card, but if you brought him in with one of the former Braves on a one year deal, you’d have two pretty awesome relievers, a backup plan for Wags, and you’d barely have to invest the same amount in both guys that Frankie is costing per year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
You're being ridiculous
I though we’ve gotten past this. I know you don’t like the guy but at least realized that he’s a superstar. Now you’d rather trade a 26 year old lead off hitter/shortstop who has played at an all star level for 3 of the last 4 years of his career, and the only reason not the 4th is because of injury mind you, over a guy who throws 70 innings and has been in decline the last 3 years.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
You've never proven that because it's absurd
And I can look at the fact that David Wright had his worst season at the same year Reyes was hurt all year.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
oh, clearly.
because you can totally prove that with evidence instead of biased WFAN spouting idiocy.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Just...Don't bother.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
How can you possibly provide evidence for this claim?
I’d love to see it. To prove this claim, you have to prove that other players would have played better had they not played alongside Reyes. You certainly can’t make this case with Wright or Beltran, unless you mean to suggest that they would have been Albert Pujols level awesome had Reyes not been around. And the one time Wright did underperform, Reyes wasn’t even playing for most of the season. Would Moises Alou have been more apt to stay healthy if Jose Reyes weren’t around? Would Shawn Green have resurrected his already long faded star? Would Jose Valentin been a superstar in 2006, instead of just very good? Would Endy Chavez been a power hitter? Kaz Matsui lived up to expectations? Would Mike Pelfrey strike more guys out? And even in 2009, by my count, the only player who performed substantially better after Reyes got injured was Jeff Francoeur, a guy who wasn’t even on the roster until halfway through the season, well after Reyes had gone down.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Francouer hasn't even played a game with Reyes.
For all we know, when Reyes plays, Francouer’s reverting to his original self.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
He did
He linked us to dozens interview of players saying Jose Reyes was a clubhouse cancer and brought their game down, dozens of fake interviews that never existed.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
trading K-rod
that’s a tough one…maybe…rather not, unless mets get all-star back…..
this
i’d trade him if we get like, joe nathan or paps back… i don’t want a shitty bullpen like usual though
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
K-Rod's tRA+ over the last four years
2006: 150
2007: 139
2008: 120
2009: 112
K% over the same stretch:
33.11%
30.18%
26.15%
24.75%
WAR:
2.9
2.2
1.4
1.1
What is there besides reputation to put K-Rod on the same level as the elite closers in the game? He was one four years ago, but he’s steadily been getting worse, and he just ain’t that good at this point. The guy is coming off his highest ERA, tRA, FIP, whatever run rate stat you want to use in his career, and yet he had the lowest BABIP he’s had since 2003 (.270) and the highest IFFB% of his career (18.3%). The only positive regression he’s due is his 69.8 LOB%, just a tick below the league average (further below his career average), and that’s hardly going to be enough to compensate for all the not-so-positive regressions he’s due after what was already the worst year he’s ever had. Its very possible we could have a shitty bullpen with K-Rod. We had one with Wagner in 2007 and most of 2008, and he was far superior when healthy.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
That's your counter?
Do you even have a line of, you know, reason here? If you think K-Rod in 2009 was superior to Wagner from 2006 through pre-injury 2008, make a case for it. You’d be wrong, but at least try to say something convincing.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Wagner is a borderline hall of fame reliever
Just to make a point
Frankie: 283 opportunities, 243 saves, 40 blown saves, 3.00 FIP, 11.43 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP
Wagner: 418 opportunities, 385 saves, 33 blown saves, 2.79 FIP, 11.79 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.01 WHIP
Factor in that Frankie is only 27 and already in a significant decline as Meddle pointed out, it’s obvious those numbers are only going to get worse.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
He has 7 more blown saves
in 135 less opportunities.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
If only I could
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'm always right! :)
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
You obviously missed my post from the Hall Of Fame thread.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I didn't; You can always be right, but so am I. When an unmovable object meets an unstoppable force, well...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
And a great name.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 30, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
he could possibly be our setup man
also, since when did he play for the marlins?
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs

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