Ruben Tejada

by Bobby Baseball on Nov 28, 2009 1:13 PM EST

I have heard that he might be a decent starting shortstop in the majors, but that there is a much bigger chance he will probably be a pretty good bench player/utility infielder. So probably Ruben Tejada will be like Adam Everett or Craig Counsell, only younger. I have heard that Tejada has a good glove but his bat is not so great. So why am I hearing so much that the Jays really like Tejada and would want him in a Halladay deal? Every deal I have heard involving the Mets and Roy Halladay, it seems Tejada is involved. Why do they have so much interest in a younger version of Adam Everett or Craig Counsell? They were good in their primes but I don't think they were worth one of the best pitchers in baseball.

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There is a lot of value in decent performance for cheap.

Also, the Jays really need a SS.

"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport" - Bryan Burwell

by EtSuKe on Nov 28, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions

This

One of the things you need to consider when acquiring prospects is what their “bust” chances are. Tejada may not have crazy high upside the way a guy like Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, or Fernando Martinez does, but as far as 20 year old minor leaguers go, he’s about as sure a bet as any to become a useful major league player, and maybe even a pretty solid everyday SS. He already has the glove, and he controls the strike zone remarkably well for such a youngster. He doesn’t get credit as a big upside guy because he’s never going to hit for a ton of power and he doesn’t have the “burner” speed of a Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, but he’s not Luis Castillo punchless and he does have above average speed. I read a comparison of what his offensive upside might look like in a discussion on Minorleagueball.com that suggested Orlando Hudson, which seems like a fair snapshot of what his ceiling might be, except with quality defense at SS, which is more valuable than 2B. Another decent comp might be Jason Bartlett. Even if he doesn’t hit that upside, he’ll almost certainly find a job in a utility role as a premium defensive infielder who carries a bit of offensive value.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 28, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yes indeed.

If Tejada has only a 25% chance of becoming a ML regular at SS, that’s worth something in the neighborhood of

(((2 WAR * $4.5m per WAR) * 6 years) – actual salary) * 0.25 = $8.5 million

If you believe Tejada has a 50-50 chance of becoming a regular, he’s worth around $17 million. If you’re certain he’ll make the Show and stick, he’s worth around $34 million.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 28, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

That is a very good point

Because even though a player who hits well might suddenly stop hitting well (Shelley Duncan, David Ortiz, David Wright are some examples [and don’t go blasting me saying Wright still had a good year, I know that he did I was just using him as an example so you get the point]) if he plays good defense, he will probably play good defense for his whole career, or until at least he gets pretty old or suffers some kind of injury (like Castillo).

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on Nov 28, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

tejada comp

the best comp for tejada is asdrubal cabrera on the indians. especially when you realize how rare it is for a slick-fielding MI w/ not too much power to control the strike zone as well as tejada (and cabrera) does.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 28, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Another Tejada comp

Actually, another comp I like is the Jays incumbent, Marco Scutaro. Except Scutaro wasn’t that good until much later. I think Tejada will be as good in his early 20s as Scutaro has been the last 5 years, ages 29-33.

Tejada isn’t going to give you quite as much speed or defensive range as Asdrubal Cabrera. But he’ll give you the bat control, OBP skills, and great hands, reactions, and instincts at SS.

by acerimusdux on Nov 28, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

idk about that

i think the speed is comparable if not favoring tejada. i mean cabrera stole 23 bases in his first 3 pro seasons combined (w/ 21 cs), tejada stole 19 this season alone (w/ only 3 cs).

by Rob Castellano on Nov 29, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

You may be right

You know I saw him in St. Lucie last year, when he only stole 8 with 5 CS. But he was obviously making the adjustment to the speed of the game at that level, after making the jump all the way form the GCL. He wasn’t a real burner, but had above average speed. It was there more on defense, though it was quickness and instincts as much as pure speed.

Maybe I’m over rating Cabrera a bit, because he isn’t really a burner either. Looking at the stats, you have a good case. It looks like Tejada is stealing bases at about the same rate in the minors, and his defensive stats compare as well. Per Total zone, he was +4 last year in St. Lucie at SS, and -4 this year in Binghamton. Keeping in mind though, he has been promoted aggressively and the defense can continue to get more polished as well. The skills he showed for his age were outstanding, but he was still only 18 when I saw him, and 19 this year.

by acerimusdux on Nov 29, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

I think Tejada is underrated by many people

I’ve never seen him, but based off his numbers he should be a highly rated prospect. He was the youngest player in AA this year at 19 and plays a solid shortstop. I’ve heard he doesn’t have any power, but he hit 5 home runs, at 19, in league where everyone is 4 years older than him. He’s still young enough to add some muscle so he could gain a bit more power. I look at him with the potential to be like Luis Castillo with a few more home runs and a little less stolen bases.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 28, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions