Beltran
by scott from peekskill on Nov 29, 2009 1:43 PM EST
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PrintHow would people feel if in Jan 2011 we trade Beltran to Boston for Ellsbury and prospects then traade them to Tampa for Crawford.
It would mean F-Mart would play CF. Any problems with this?
SS Reyes
RF Crawford
3b Wright
LF Holliday
CF F-Mart
1b IkeC Thole
2b Castillo or a prospect
P
it would be a young team with a great core, lots of speed and it would be cheap. On the downside; lack of experience, not enough power and Castillo is a dinosaur.
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If we wait until 2011, Ellsbury might be worth more than Beltran, forget the prospects
In fact, Ellsbury might already be worth more.
Also, in 2011, Crawford will be a free agent.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
No way is Ellsbury worth more than Beltran
He’s a bad fielder, doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t draw a lot of walks. He’s also not that young, he’ll be 26 most of next year, 27 in September.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
And can't the form of an ass-kicking robot.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
You can sign Matt Holliday for the yearly difference in salaries
between Ellsbury and Beltran. That’s impossible to ignore.
So does Holliday
and Holliday is younger without bad knees. Except I’d have to get more for Beltran than Ellsbury and prospects unless they were world beating prospect and in that cause I’m quite certain I would trade Beltran+ world beating prospects, for Ellsbury and the right to resign Crawford straight up, I’m quite certain I wouldn’t. Since I’m assuming these would have to be world beating prospects to make up for the difference between Ellsbury and Beltran.
The point I made so badly is that I would trade Beltran for Ellsbury straight up.
To me, since Ellsbury will make little money in the next two years, the trade works out to Holliday + Ellsbury > Beltran, particularly given Beltran’s injury last season. The money is essentially the same, and one could look at it as, "who would we rather have in LF and CF for the next two years? Holliday + Ellsbury, or Beltran + LFer making the ML minimum.
This does assume Holliday can be signed for around $20m per, though if not a smart alternative is Ellsbury + Cameron (and with Pagan in RF that gives three CFers in the OF) + whatever SP you want to get for around $10m per year. That package is also worth more than Beltran in 2010 and 2011.
I just don't want Ellsbury in center in Citi Field
he doesn’t have the range to cover it. Ellsbury should be a left fielder.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
His UZR is all over the place. Great in 2008, lousy in 2009.
I’ll grant you I don’t know what to make of that.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 30, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Is Holliday+Ellsbury
Any better than Beltran+Pagan though? Or even for that matter, Holliday+Pagan? The difference seems minimal to me, and dealing Beltran for Ellsbury probably misses out big time on the opportunity cost of whatever the best deal you could get for Beltran is.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 30, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure that's how it would work.
Since we already have Pagan, can you really just add him in? In other words, shouldn’t it be
a) Holliday + Ellsbury + Pagan or
b) ML minimum guy + Beltran + Pagan
If you give Ellsbury a little credit for still approaching his peak, he’s about a 2.7 WAR player, while Holliday’s about a 6.2. Beltran figures at 4.5, Pagan at 2.0.
a) above gives you a WAR around 10.9
b) gives you a WAR around 6.5, and you have almost no money with which to pick up the missing 4.4 wins.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 30, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
How is Holliday about 6.2?
And Ellsbury never broken 2 I don’t see how he jumps to 2.7
Not to mention why would B be the only other option?
Agreed
And why is Beltran 4.5? I think he and Holliday will both be around 5.5 next season
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Evan, I saw your conversation with devil fingers
about Holliday at BtB. He said Holliday projects for about 4.5 WAR I think, and I agree with him. Beltran is also about 3.5-4 WAR depending on playing time. Pagan is about 1.5 with full playing time, and Ellisbury is about 2.2 (I don’t know what his projected UZR is)
Projections are still projections,
no one can predict future performance with absolute certainty. Beltran would have been a 5+ WAR player had he not gotten injured, Holliday was worth 5.7, and I just have a hard time believing one year will cause such a drastic drop for both of them.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
No way, mon ami.
Why would Holliday project well below any of his last three seasons? He’s put up WARs of 7.9, 6.2, and 5.7 since 2007.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 1, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Beltran's last three years have gone 4.9, 6.7, and 2.9, so 4.5 isn't at all out of line
As much as it grieves me to say so, I no longer believe Beltran is an elite player, and any reasonable projection has to ding him for the significant time he lost to injury last year. He’s an aging, injury prone CF who just missed a lot of time. Given that, 4.5 is no insult.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 1, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
uh, exactly.
he missed half the season, was injured much of the time he played, and he still put up 2.9 WAR. So 4.5 is DEFINITELY low.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
That looks reasonable for Ellsbury to me
I don’t think 2.7 WAR is that crazy, James has him at 14.8 wRAA (.355 projected wOBA, which is fine considering his .349 career mark) and BtB -8.3 UZR. After accounting for replacement, positional adjustment, and a few baserunning runs, 2.7 WAR even seems a bit conservative in his James projected 687 PAs. But by the same measures, you have to project Beltran as at least 5.0 WAR (James 25.0 wRAA, BtB 2.0 UZR, 2.5 positional, 20.0 Replacement, plus baserunning) and that’s factoring in less playing time (James has him at 136 games and 598 PAs, which also gives us those replacement and positional adjustment numbers).
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
This is what I get using CHONE and BtB's UZR projections for Ellsbury
.331 wOBA and -9 UZR/150 in CF. With positional and replacement over 584 PAs I get 1.5 WAR. With Bill James’s wOBA .355 I get 2.7 WAR.
And for Beltran I get .364 wOBA, 0 UZR/150. Over 514 PAs that is 3.4 WAR. With Bill James’s .379 wOBA I get 4.1 WAR.
For Holliday I have .378 wOBA, 4 UZR/150 over 646 PAs = 4.5 WAR. With Bill James’s .396 wOBA I get 5.5 WAR.
There seems to be a problem between CHONE and Bill James.
For Pagan in CF
.325 wOBA and -1 UZR/150 over only 317 PAs = 1 WAR. With full playing time that is about 2 WAR. With James’s .327 wOBA it is also 1 WAR
Are you including baserunning?
Huge for Ellsbury. The fangraphs projected wOBA should include SBs, but not everything else, and I’m assuming the CHONE derived wOBA doesn’t include SBs, so you have to add quite a bit, since Ellsbury’s a 5-7 EqBRR guy.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 2, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Holliday's last 3 seasons were 7.9, 6.2, and 5.7 WAR
Why is 6.2 out of line?
Also, acc to FanGraphs, Ellsbury rang up 3.3 WAR in 2008. 2.7 is a 321 w a small bump for going into his age 26 season.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 1, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Well my point was I don't think there's much difference between the projections for Pagan and Ellsbury
So isn’t there a better way to allocate resources to the third spot? Even if you ditch on Beltran to sign Holliday, couldn’t you do a bit better than Ellsbury? Why not just stick with Beltran and sign Cameron instead? Or even trade Beltran for something else and sign Holliday and Cameron? 2.7 WAR seems reasonable enough for him. It just doesn’t seem efficient to me to tap a resource like Beltran to fill a the one need that isn’t particularly scarce in this market. If you’re going to trade Beltran and re-up with Holliday, get a commodity less common to this market but just as necessary to success in 2009, like maybe an arm. Phil Hughes and a prospect or two maybe? Maybe the Red Sox send Josh Beckett?
I mean, its all moot, since the third spot is going to wind up being Francoeur, and poor Pagan will probably get left on the bench. I commend the creativity, but juggling around some above-average and all-star outfielders seems a bit frivolous for a club with so many other needs that look like they’re going to be much more challenging to fill.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
"Why not just stick with Beltran and sign Cameron instead?"
That would run you around $30 million instead of the $20 million (or less) you’d need to pay Holliday and Ellsbury. Take your non-Lackey FA starter of choice that you believe will sign with the Mets for 10m in 2010. Let’s say it’s Aaron Harang:
Holliday + Ellsbury + Harang > Beltran + Cameron OR, to put it another way,
Holliday + Cameron + Ellsbury > Beltran + Cameron
As for your note that Francoeur will wind up in RF, well, sure, but if all we could do is accept exactly what the FO did we might as well hang ourselves and get it over with.
Harang's not a FA
And Cameron isn’t going to cost $13 million, he’s going to cost $8-10 million. Even still, trade Beltran for a pitcher. Isn’t that better than signing any of the available Free Agent SP? That’s the opportunity cost here. No matter what, you have to hand out at least two market rate contracts after dealing Beltran (Holliday plus either a SP or OF, depending on the return for Beltran). Why not save the market rate contract for the deeper, more depressed market, and use your trade commodity to save yourself the hassle of dealing with the FA market for SP.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't trade Beltran for 10 Ellsbury's.
He sucks at fielding and his only real asset is speed. We already have Pagan. Would you really trade Beltran for Ellsbury? Not me.
"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez
You wouldn't trade Beltran for ONE Ellsbury because Theo would never do it.
That’s why you won’t have the option.
Ellsbury’s fielding is all over the place but comes out average for his career. An average fielding CF who steals at a 129/23 rate and hits 27 doubles, 10 triples, and 8 home runs is a very valuable ballplayer.
No one is claiming Ellsbury’s the better player. The big difference is salary. At this point in their careers Carlos Beltran’s salary is 20 million dollars. Jacob Ellsbury’s salary is a rounding error.
I’ll venture there’s no GM in the game who, today, would sign Beltran to a two year contract for the $40 million he’s owed in 2010-2011. With his injury I doubt he’d get 75% of that in this market. There’s simply no way a GM, especially one of the best GMs in the game, would spend more than five seconds deciding whether to give away a solid regular like Ellsbury in order to obtain the right to overpay Beltran by at least 10 million dollars.
That’s how you evaluate this hypothetical trade.
Overpay Beltran??
He was worth 13 million dollars last year playing in 81 games. If he plays 150 games, he’s worth his contract.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I was getting ready to make an argument for Beltran
About how it didn’t look like his peripheral numbers really declined much, but its not exactly true. Its not patently false, since his BB% and K% are very stable, but his HR/FB was only 10.8% this year and his BABIP was a career high .353. His ISO dipped under .200 for the first time since 2005, and even his EqBRR was way down. He should still be very good, but the declining HR rate in particular is troubling, and gets masked a bit by his high BABIP. If we assume that’s more where he’s going to sit for the next few years and that his defense has gone from awesome to average, he’s still a very good player, but 5.5 WAR isn’t likely.
BTW, who knew that in 2006, Beltran’s best year by wOBA (.412), his BABIP was .268? Man, imagine what he would have done that year with neutral luck. It would have been historically awesome. Then again, his LD% was also a career low 16.8%.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
Those deals give you more bang for your buck
But we’re ending up about even in war value unless we’re under serious financial constraints there’s no need for them, since signing Holliday, or signing Cameron plus a ten million dollar pitcher, though I don’t think any of the pitchers likely to get 10 million are particularly good signs, without having to move Beltran should be possible.
How about both? What about something like
Beltran and Murphy to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson? Get some bang for your buck from a financially squeezed team and the high impact bat you’re looking for. And despite all the complaints about Miggy’s defense, he hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He actually had a 2.8 UZR this year, though his -1.1 career UZR/150 is probably more accurate, and he’s an automatic .400 wOBA. Murphy helps Detroit recoup some of the value they lose in Granderson (mostly after 2010), and they still shed $7 million, a lot of long-term commitments, and get a marketable, seat filling player in return. The Mets have only spent $7 million in the short term and can still afford an impact FA, preferably Holliday LF, and then Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez can stay hot on Pagan and Francoeur’s marginally average tails for the RF gig.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 2:48 AM EST up reply actions
I like that idea
But I’m not sure why detroit would do it, they’d get immediate salary relief but that’s it, no real prospects, and I imagine with the state of their farm system, and the financial constraints they’re under if they don’t get prospects for one, or both of them, they’re going to be bad for a really really long time. Once Beltrans contract is up, which I can’t remember if that’s 2011, or 2012, they’re basically left with a straight up salary dump.
Especially considering without those two
They’ll likely not even come close to competing this year. It would be the type of trade that could set them reeling for years with their fan base. You give up the prospects for Cabrera, sign him long-term, then before he even hits his peak sell him, and your other peaking super star, for 2 years of an aging former superstar and likely a career utility guy.
That's true
The Mets might have to swap out Davis for Murph, or maybe throw in a couple prospects and take on Magglio Ordonez and have the Tigers eat some of his salary or something. I mean, any trade of Cabrera for Salary relief is going to:
A. Alienate the fanbase
B. Hurt their chances of short term contention
Would getting a couple B-level prospects out of Boston’s system help them out any more? The best solution for them is probably to hold onto Cabrera at this point, and if they can’t, its gotta be for financial reasons. If you can get a high profile, neutral-value player on a shorter commitment while dumping some salary, doesn’t that help you more? They can try to generate some revenue over the next couple years, collect some draft picks when he walks, and hope to have the spending power to make an impact by then.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I posted the WAR above.
So even if Beltran puts up a career season, you’re 2 WAR short and you’ll have to find those wins for about $500,000.
Emotionally I do not want to make this trade, but if I was GM I’d really, really have to think about it.
Its not a terrible thought
But it relies on the idea that Beltran can still be an elite player, or at least viewed that way by another club, which isn’t apparently how you view him. Should the Red Sox agree with the more optimistic Beltran projections if they can squeeze him in some time at DH? Should most big market AL Clubs consider Beltran an asset at his salary? If so, it may make sense to shop him. but how much marginal value do you think he gains by moving to the AL?
Even if I shopped Beltran and got a positive response, a replacement outfielder isn’t the direction I’d go in. Its just too easy to find just about whatever level outfielder you need in this market at the market rate. Want a 3-4 WAR type for $15 mil? Jason Bay. Wan’t a $20 million superstar? Matt Holliday. Want a 2-3 WAR player for <$10 million? Mike Cameron. You can’t do this with the free agent SP or 1B. So if you’re going to trade Beltran, shouldn’t you try to get your return there and pay the market rate in the outfield?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 1, 2009 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
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