Pick one "Untouchable" Prospect
If Omar called you and said "Pick one of our prospects who will become untouchable" who would you pick?
To me its Ike Davis. I like the fact that he is the kid of a former MLB player, has the "goods" that scouts like and most importantly; he is improving as he matures.
His Father said in the Post this week that he thinkes Ike could play 10-15 seasons. That would be awesome to have a home grown 1b on the team and in our core for that long.
But whom would pick?
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I would pick Thole
While I have the most trust in Davis, I think a good hitting first baseman is very easy to find, especially with the Mets payroll abilities over the next few years. I love Holt and Mejia but they have never proven themselves in the majors and as pitchers they have high injury risks. Good hitting catchers are hard to find, and Thole has showed us he can hit. Even though it is small sample size, has has done pretty well in his brief stint in the majors. To me, F-Mart and Flores are too young and they have never really put up eye-popping numbers for me to say “Wow that guy is going to be a star.” So I would take Jose Thole.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
Well, that's a bit mean
Since “untouchable” was placed by the poster in inverted commas to signify that it’s not really a total untouchability, but a concept we can all understand as ‘our most highly-rated prospect that we would be most disappointed to let go’ or something.
Thanks for noticing the " "
Some people just dont know how to read I guess
by scott from peekskill on Dec 1, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
I can't believe anyone would say Thole
He has nearly no power and average at best defender so far. And I consider myself a big Thole guy.
I’d go Fernando still. He’s 21 and dominated AAA for the first two months last season. Health is a concern, but I see it as the only concern. I still think he can be a similar hitter to a guy like Jim Rice. He’ll hit for good power, around 30 homers a year, high average, not a high on base guy, and he doesn’t seem like he’ll too many bases, based on his numbers in the minors. Mejia or Davis is probably the safer choice because of Fernando’s injury history, but I like his upside the best.
And to scott, what father would say publicly, “My son? He sucks. He’s lucky to be playing professionally let alone considered a top prospect. They should trade him now cause he’s gonna be outta baseball in a year.”
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Yeah I like Thole
but we don’t even know if he has the defense to play catcher, and he’s not going to hit for enough power to play first. I don’t really think I would consider anyone in our system untouchable, maybe Flores, just because he’s too far away to get real value for him other than as a throw in, or Meija if I had to choose.
david wright
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 29, 2009 8:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 2, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
If he was guaranteed to pan out, Mejia
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions
Yeah my problem with Meija
is sooooooooooo many things can go wrong with a pitching prospect, especially a young one in this organization.
Probably faster: He's young and impressionable.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 29, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
But isn't that exactly why you don't trade a prospect like Mejia?
His value is so held back by his volatility, and his upside is as high as can be. To me, it makes more sense to stockpile these types of prospects, increasing the odds that you hit on one or more of them and get yourself a bonafide superstar at a very low cost. Then you deal from the more stable guys, whose value is much clearer, even if they also have crazy upside (if you have to deal any).
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think so
I think that’s true for a guy like Flores or Familia, or Guerra before we traded him, because they were high upside but mostly unproven commodities so you can’t get much value for them other than as add ins, once a guy like Meija, or Holt would be similar, has had success in AA ball i think they’re value is probably pretty high. To me ANY pitching prospect is hard to label as untouchable, not because of anything particular about Meija.
The way I define untouchability in a prospect
Is a prospect whose upside is too high to justify trading him at his current value level. Its not necessarily the best prospects, but the ones where there’s a case to be made for going against the typical risk-averse grain. I think Fernando Martinez and Jenrry Mejia both fit this description currently, and perhaps Wilmer Flores as well, and I’d probably find myself having a hard time discussing Reese Havens. The best-possible payoff with these guys just doesn’t justify the kind of value you’d get back for them in trade. Guys like Davis, Thole, and Tejada, none of them have crazy ridiculous upside, and I could very easily see other organizations drawing the same conclusions from their evaluations of each one that I do.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 29, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions
Mejia for precisely that reason.
I think Davis is the most likely prospect to have a career as a solid regular, but Mejia has the highest upside.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 29, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Jorge Luis Toca.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 29, 2009 11:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
man, I thought he was gonna be awesome
he became a 40 HR a year guy in whatever video game it was I was playing back when he was a prospect (High Heat, I think)
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Steve Chilcott.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I wouldn't call that draft a success for the Mets
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Mejia
I don’t whether I’ll feel this way in another year, but with what I saw last year, Mejia is untouchable for me right now. The next guys who I would at least be wary of dealing are Fernando Martinez and Ike Davis. I think both still have very high ceilings if all goes right.
As for much lower ranked guys who I think have good ceilings and won’t get any value in trade, Brant Rustich and Carlos Guzman are two guys who probably wouldn’t make a top 15, but who I would want to hang onto for another year.
In terms of perceived value vs actual value, yes yes yes.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
He's in an odd situation though
If the Red Sox called asking about him, they might be willing to give up fair value. He’s exactly the kind of player they like statistically, they targeted him as a draft pick out of HS, and if they think he could handle a switch back to SS or even maybe 3B, he’d fit into their system hierarchy nicely. Almost any other organization I couldn’t envision shopping him too, but he’s a case where some of the smarter ones might actually be more willing to give fair value on him. Then again, being that the Mets aren’t one of the smarter organizations, dealing Havens might be like, to steal a line from Hamlet 2, getting “raped in the face”. But it might be, in the strictest sense of the word, theoretically possible to get fair value on Havens.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 30, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I agree in theory
So should we amend it to *it’s impossible for Omar to get fair value for Havens.
Haha, yeah I think that works
We should compare the AA threads from the day Omar gets fired to the AA threads the next time the Mets win the WS. I really wonder which is going to make us happier.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 30, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it is possible to get someone worse than Omar
"What was my greatest fear in the past is now upon us. Armed with their "advanced metrics" and clutching their spread sheets, the new-age baseball voters have officially taken over the sport" - Bryan Burwell
Well
He’s at least on the same level as Phillips//Duquette, though I’d say Omar is actually better.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Yeah I'd say he's better than them too
The Wilpons don’t exactly have a great track record in finding gms. Omars the best they’ve found in ten years.
Don't say Phillips!
Omar is godlike in comparison.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 1, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
the longer it is before the former happens
the more I’m convinced the Internet will be obsolete by the time the latter happens
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
aarggg!
that idiot just brought cora back @ 2M Tatis must be next
Like Cora, I don't have major problems with him if his contract is at market value (which, invariably, it won't be)
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 1, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
Untouchable Prospects
The only Met minor leaguer that I would not want to trade is Davis too, unless it brought back someone huge, like Prince or Albert. The Mets really don’t have an “untouchable” right now, perhaps one will emerge this season. Here’s my top five in order of how much I would NOT want to trade any of them. 1 Davis, 2 Mejia, 3 F Mart, 4 Niese, 5 Holt. One guy I like a lot but he couldn’t crack my top 5 is Familia. These guys would all be in my Mets Top Ten, along with Flores, Tejada, Thole, and Havens.
"Untouchable"
Reese Havens. Dude looks like the kinda guy who’d smell real bad. No way I’d want to touch him.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Dec 3, 2009 4:11 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

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