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Stephen Schmidt
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Agreed. Gomez doesn't suck, but Hardy is more valuable.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Hardy was pretty awful this season, and is entering his final arbitration season.
I don’t know how much value he actually has.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 6, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
As was said, Hardy probably can rebound
Gomez, I don’t really think that there’s anything for him to “rebound” to, or randomly and arbitrarily grow into. Again, I’m not saying he’s bad, but…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Gomez is a 24 year old who was rushed to the Majors due to injury.
His bat hasn’t been very good yet, but there is little reason to think he has no room to improve.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
And in the minors, he never really exhibited much skill for hitting for power or average
Mind you, though, a lot of Hardy’s htting credentials in the minors were actually worse than Gomez, and he came around for 2007 and 2008. So, perhaps there is some latent skill in his bat.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Odds
More likely that Hardy will rebound after a cruddy year than for Gomez to develop into something more than a speedy, no-hit centerfielder.
Who can save you 15 runs a year on defense
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
While costing you nearly as much with his bat
Plus, I doubt he’ll have as much fielding value no longer playing half his games in the dome.
Sure he could develop into a replacement level bat (or perhaps even better), but at this point I think the only clear plus to the Brewers is a financial one.
Playing CF, he is about a replacement level bat
He’s been a positive value player in each of his three partial seasons, so I’m not sure what you’re getting at. He was 2.3 WAR in 2008, his fullest season, according to fangraphs. 0.7 WAR in about 2/3 of a season last year. Never been at or below 0 WAR.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Dude makes Jeff Frenchy look like an OBP machine
Never yet cleared .300. In that wonderful 2008 he struck out nearly 6 times for every walk.
Yeah but when you can save 15 runs per year on defense
In CF, that makes up more of the value than the bad offense takes away.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
it's gonna be nice to get to see gomez again
i’m sure he’ll get a nice reception
"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner
I'd be down with that
I’d still bring back Endy too (or a similar ++fielder) to be the 4th outfielder. You can never have too much defense.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
I'd take him
and put Carlos left field or right
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
How is this anything other than a horrible deal for the Twins??
The only things Gomez does well are run, play defense and…. sniff bats
if gomez can hit at least a bit it’s a win-win
"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner
Hardy has the potential to be a top notch all star shortstop
Which he was last season. Gomez stinks, simple as that.
by Scent of a Woman on Nov 6, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Gomez is one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball
His bat is replacement level, but his glove is stellar, 15.3 UZR/150 in the OF, 14.2 in CF. That alone should make him a 1-2 WAR player over every 150 or so games during his controllable tenure.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
He is fast and can catch the ball
But cant hit a lick. The Brewers had/have a nice young core with Braun, Fielder, Hart. They could have gotten more for Hardy. Brewers were destroyed in this trade.
by Scent of a Woman on Nov 6, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
I think you’re way undervaluing what Gomez can do on defense. A run is a run, whether its saved with the glove or produced with the bat. A replacement level hitter who is 15 runs above average on defense is still a very good player.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I do not think the Brewers got maximum value for Hardy
They have Escobar coming up through the farm to replace JJ. However, a player like Hardy should be attained for more than Gomez.
by Scent of a Woman on Nov 6, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
When you factor cost and amount of time under team control
Its a very fair value. Hardy’s already going to cost at least $4 million, probably more, and he’s only under control for two more years. Gomez is still under team control through 2013 and is arbitration eligible for the first time this year as a Super-Two, where he’ll likely make like $1.5 mil at most. If the Brewers wanted another guy who was already halfway through his arbitration years and also cost around $5 million, maybe they could have gotten a better player in terms of talent, but it wouldn’t have been a better value.
I honestly think the upside in this deal goes to the Brewers. If Gomez becomes anything close to a reasonable offensive player, he’s as valuable as someone like Jacoby Ellsbury. Even with a .315 wOBA, because of his stellar defense, he could be a 3+ WAR player. Being that he got to arbitration at such a young age and that so much of his value is tied into his defense, the arbitration process will likely undervalue him. And the Brewers desperately needed a way to fill CF cheaply and adequately, so they could focus their limited funds on SP. They still have Mat Gamel to deal if they want to try to trade for pitching, and having Escobar and Gomez playing defense for them is also going to really boost their run prevention, while theoretically producing a something closer to a similar level of offensive contribution to what they got from Cameron and Hardy in 2009.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
We can speculate whether Gomez will emerge as a better offensive player
However, he has given me no reason to believe that he will hit at the major leauge level. My main argument is that Hardy should have been traded for more. Gomez and a prospect or a pitcher. The winner of a strait up deal in Minnesota.
by Scent of a Woman on Nov 7, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
You haven't provided any argument for this "fact" though
Except to repeat that Gomez is an inferior player. He’s still a positive value player, and given that he’s under team control for two extra years and will cost about the same amount total over those four years as Hardly will cost over the next two years, its a very fair deal. Give an example of what “more” you would have wanted. Supposedly Boston considered offering Michael Bowden. Would that have been a more fair deal? A completely untested prospect with a ceiling as a mid-rotation starter? He’s got a sexier name, but I don’t think he would have provided the Brewers with a better value.
Also, as far as speculation about improvement goes, a .315 wOBA isn’t exactly being a great major league hitter. In fact, its still well below average. The point is that Gomez could be a below average hitter and still be an above average player, because his defense is elite.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 7, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
Hardy wasn’t really a BABIP victim this year, his LD% dropped all the way to 13% so his .260 BABIP was pretty reasonable. Did he have a nagging injury that led him to drop off a cliff like that?
Even so, Hardy plays great defense at SS (11.2 UZR/150 career), and if you were to couple that with even an average bat you’d have a very useful player.
I think gomez will end up a capable hitter, nothing special but enough that his defense will make him a valuable commodity
could be wrong though, only time will tell.
While it may look lopsided from a talent exchange standpoint
this deal probably works for both teams. Gomez was worth .7 WAR in ~350 plate appearances and has 3-4 seasons before he hits free agency, none of which should cost the Brewers much money. If he can improve his offense even a little bit he’s a potential 2 WAR player in center (mostly for his defense) for pennies on the dollar.
Hardy was great in 2007-8 and not very good in 2009. More importantly, he is one year from free agency and could make $7-8 million in 2010.
This
Love the deal for both teams. Both maximize the utility of the acquisitions in a way they other team couldn’t.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe... but what reason is there to think Gomez can even improve his offense?
Plus, the Brewers didn’t even get a pitcher in return for Hardy, which they needed.
Also if I’m not mistaken, wasn’t Hardy’s arbitration eligibility pushed back a year after the Brewers kept him in the minors?
He doesn't have to
He was 0.7 WAR last year in 349 PAs and less than 900 defensive innings. Extrapolate that over a full season and its better than 1 WAR, maybe even closer to 2 WAR. In 2008, when he did play closer to a full season, he was 2.3 WAR with just a .294 wOBA. If he improves, he could become a very solid player. As is, he’s at least around average just because of his stellar defense alone.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 6, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
BtB trade calculator at work
Hardy for Gomez: A Defensive Win-Win
Looks like a fair trade, considering those WAR projections could move a bit up and down.
Gomez is only 24
all he would need to do is improve his plate discipline and he would improve his WAR. He has crazy speed and could steal 50+ bases a season for what thats worth.
Maybe... but what reason is there to think Gomez can even improve his offense? (copying Sylar)
2007-2009 he improved his plate discipline (O-swing from 41.1 to 29.9), but his bat value remained about the same (sub .300 OBP and about .350 SLG). He stole a lot of bases (59), but also CS (21).
It would be hard to get worse...
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 6, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
And for the right price, I'd take him on as a 4th or 5th outfielder.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 6, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
also don't forget
the brewers have alcides escobar ready to come up… they needed to make room for him
"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner
Gomez should be a very useful piece for them.
The Brewers have plaenty of bats in the lineup, but are defensively challenged. They are losing Mike Cameron, so replacing him with a guy that can cover some ground next to Braun makes alot of sense. Escobar should be a decent replacement for Hardy as well, and he is supposedly a top flight defender at short. Gomez and Escobar are certainly going to free up some money for the Brewers to invest in a pitcher or two.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 6, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Its worth pointing out here
Mike Cameron had a .305 wOBA through age 25 in 944 PAs. Gomez has a .285 wOBA through age 23 in 1102 PAs. Mike Cameron hadn’t even had a decent minor league season until he was 23 (though he flashed a strong ISO and weak contact rate at 22), and after a strong big league campaign at age 24 where he posted a .359 wOBA, he regressed the following season, posting a .281 wOBA. Gomez won’t be 24 until December.
Its also worth noting that Gomez’s 15.3 UZR/150 as an outfielder is about 10 runs better than Cameron’s career mark of 5.4. They only have UZR data going back to 2002, so its plausible that Cameron was just as good when he first came up, but this is an immediate 10 run upgrade on the defensive side for the Brewers.
There are two points to this, and neither are that I think Gomez will be as good as Cameron, I don’t, Cameron had already flashed a level of power potential and patience that Gomez never has. Gomez makes a bit more contact, but its unlikely that will ever offset the difference in production. But, Gomez still has plenty of time as well, he’s been two full levels ahead of Cameron every step of the way, and what we saw from Mike Cameron through age 25 is just a reminder that Gomez’s development is ongoing. The more important point is that strictly in terms of this year’s turnover for the Brew Crew, this is a 1 or 2 win loss for the Brewers at most, with a full win being offset by the current difference in defense (10 runs). If the organization believes Escobar can match Hardy’s defense and provide average offense, the difference in run values between having Gomez/Escobar vs. Cameron/Hardy is virtually a wash (Hardy was 13.2 batting runs below average in 2009), and Gomez/Escobar is going to cost about $14 mil less. $14 million that could be used to bring in another quality pitcher, and make the Brewers something of a complete team again.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 7, 2009 4:01 PM EST reply actions
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