BA Mets Top 10
Very surprised about #10.
14 days ago
robcast23
49 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Interesting list
They still love Wilmer apparently, and expect him to move to RF. Nice to see Kirk N. get the nod as the best defensive outfielder, thats certainly encouraging, but given his offensive profile, you’d think that would earn him a spot on the list, probably even ahead of a guy like Thole. The nod on Marte for best infield arm is also encouraging. Also nice to see them recognize Havens for his strike zone judgment.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
very surprised about wilmer still @ #2
and the projection to RF, especially w/ the big drop in power not to mention a much worse K/BB rate.
niese below holt surprises me. this list seems to lean heavily towards ceiling/potential (see: ruben tejada, a 19yr old that more than held his own in AA below havens, a 22 yr old who left something to be desired in A-ball)
also, have you heard much about urbina? i’m shocked to see him @ #10 already w/o any pro experience. i can’t imagine he’s already looked better than someone like familia or even allen/carson. to me, that pick has got to be more a lack of a true #10 guy than anything else unless urbina is really special.
by robcast23 on Nov 6, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, its kind of a funky list
Which made more sense when I saw it was Adam Rubin. Urbina at #10 definitely seems arbitrary. I don’t see how its possible to rank Urbina ahead of Nieuwenhuis, Allen, or Familia. You probably still even have to put Rustich ahead of him.
I actually like the aggressive ranking on Havens though. I think his floor is getting way undersold. He’s fundamentally sound and has all the secondary skills in the world, its just a matter of his BABIP coming in line with his periphs and staying healthy.
Def surprised on Wilmer though, I don’t see how he can possibly rank ahead of Davis and Fernando.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
personally
I love Havens. I don’t follow the minors as closely as you do, but everything I’ve heard/seen about him has impressed me, and I see no reason to doubt that he’s going to be our starting second basemen in 2-3 years
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Nov 6, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He may be, I could just as easily seeing Tejada taking over that role if he continues to hit as his defense should be slightly better.
Either way, I love that the Mets have several good options that should be knocking on the door when Castillo’s contract expires.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what "excites" me. To hell with FAs.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
blah brant rustich
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 6, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Urbina was BA's top avilable LHP in the international market.
They loved him in July, I’m not surprised he made the list.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But then to grade Nieuwenhuis as the best defensive OF in the system
And leave him off entirely? That seems mighty peculiar to me, unless they really just think the Mets outfield depth is terrible. I mean, there are some interesting athletes in the lower levels on the system, just not many bats.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, I wouldn't have Urbina in the top 20 yet. I wouldn't have Wilmer in the top 5 at this point either.
BA seems to love to add the young kids to their lists, even though they still have so much to prove.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe Nieu
has like a -25 runs/150 according to minorleaguesplits, so I’m taking that as either a knock on the Mets OF depth or just Rubin wanting to regonize Nieu for something as he had a season deserving some sort of regonition.
As for Urbina, I think it’s a more of a sleeper pick, as number 10 doesnt really matter but if Urbina does have a really good season next year, there’s a feather in the cap for “calling it” early.
by Sokojoe on Nov 6, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh wow
Yeah I hadn’t checked TZ on Nieu yet, really awful by that metric. My impression has always been that he’s a good athlete with range and an arm, but below average skills and size and body-type that projects to slow down a bit. He’s always gotten good “tools” grades. Hopefully he can improve that mark, but he does look destined for a corner.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Juan Urbina
Didn’t we seemingly randomly sign him? Or was there any type of courtship involved (for as much as a team can court an international amateur)? Because that he’s Number 10 either says something for his talent, which is a fortuitous thing for us, or the weakness of our farm system (which isn’t really as bad as I’ve been giving it credit for).
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And, I'm liking that projected 2013 line up.
The pitching rotation gives me a little worry, but other than that…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no way that actually ends up being the rotation though
free agency, trades, etc.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Nov 6, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. That's why I'm not that worried about it. I'd expect at least two free agents in there.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, its not so much a true projection though
As kind of a fun exercise of how the org might turn out if they ignored outside acquisitions for a few years. Just a way of saying “oh okay, so this is where Flores might wind up” and things of the like.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We'll try to hire Sandy Koufax 2 or 3 more times until 2013. 3/36!
by Michkin on Nov 6, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for it.
That’s why I like Niese. He’s seemed alright so far, nothing too, too special, but he has a massive, Koufaxian curveball. Love 12-6 curves…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yuck!
Holt has 1 offering. Major League hitters won’t be able to hit his FB right?
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Nov 7, 2009 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're exaggerating.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Urbina was probably the most highly regarded pitcher on the IFA scene this year
But it was a position player heavy group, and especially with groups of teenagers (like any IFA class), pitching is virtually impossible to predict.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The big plus with Urbina is that his age was well documented due to his father.
At least we won’t find out he’s really 35…
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That must be why he's so valuable.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's got better stuff than Matz, and he's two years younger.
He’s defnately valuable, but he’s along way away.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not sure about the stuff
it sounds like presently, urbina lives in the high 80’s and has touched 91-92 w/ his fastball. i’ve heard conflicting reports about his secondary stuff (rubin says slider, BA says curve) but both sources say its a decent pitch right now at best, but that he has good feel for it for a 16yr old. the big thing about urbina is that apparently he has a very very smooth delivery from the left side which everyone (especially the mets) seems to think means he’s going to only get better.
matz on the other hand lives around 90 right now and touches 93-94 and throws an average 3/4 curveball. sounds like matz has better stuff right now but apparently he has some questionable mechanics, as compared w/ urbina’s very fluid delivery.
from rubin’s reports, it sounds like he’s drinking the mets “fluid delivery=projection” kool-aid big time which explains that ranking.
by robcast23 on Nov 6, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was actually quite disappointed that Rubin did the list.
He’s a beat writer for the ML team, he is pretty limited in how much time he devotes to the minors. I don’t know if BA would ever consider Toby Hyde, but he seems to provide much better information on the Mets minor league system than Rubin.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I bet Omar lobby for Toby Hyde...
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL most appropriate use of the lobby quote I've seen in a while
Rubin did last years list too for BA if I’m not mistaken.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He has for several years, and I don't think he's done that good a job at it.
Hyde at least looks at a combination of performance and tools to make a determination, and he actually sees quite a few of these guys regularly. Rubin seems to rely on a few different scouts, and doesn’t seem to have much knowledge of his own. He can never quite seem to have good info on 10 guys, so there’s an Urbina or a Pena in the list as an “upside” guy, even though they have no business being there.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I def agree
Hyde’s analysis is his own. He may not have year round press access to top level scouts, but he looks at things like advanced metrics and Pitch F/X and uses them to generate original thoughts, and typically very valid and cogent ones. With Rubin, it always just seems like another way to get his name on something, and the effort is often weak.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 6, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Hyde’s ranking is definitely the one I value most.
by TheBigStapler on Nov 6, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He seemed to agree with the top 8, and seemed stumped by Urbina
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/11/06/bas-top-ten-list/
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I read that scout's analysis of Familia.
What an idiot. Guess you didn’t check and see he walked less than 3 per 9, huh…
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 6, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stapler...did you take too many Staples to the Head?
BA had Marte in the Top 10 last year, as did Mr Hyde. How can you value his the most? What difference is there between his and BA from last year?
He also ranked Pena #7. Is that valid? What about Scott Moviel #9? Dillion Gee, Eddie Kunz, etc etc.
Rethink that. Hyde is no different than Rubin. Neither have a clue!
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Nov 7, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So because last year
They had a guy like Marte, young and coming off a great year in the GCL, Moviel, a tall power arm pre injury, Pena a teenager holding his own in A+, Kunz out first pick a few years ago, and Gee who played great in 08 between A+ and AA, that makes the lists invalid? gee especially would have probably been 13 or so this year if he didn’t get injured.
Who would you have ahead of Marte last year? No one knoew who Mejia was, Nieuwenhuis didn’t look so good, Davis who looked terrible in Brooklyn? Thole, a newly converted catcher with no power at all? Parnell? Familia? Allen? Carson? Beaulac? I don’t think anyone knew who those four were coming in the year, well maybe Alex and Meddler. Who should have been in the top 10 last year? Mets had a pretty dismal farm coming into 09 and there were some really nice surprises to make this system more than respectable. Hyde does great work and knows what he’s talking about. I didn’t agree with the Pena ranking specifically, but he had a logical reason for every ranking. Looking back it’s pretty easy to find flaws. If you’re really gonna go based off of one years rankings, why not blast every single person who put Delmon Young as the best prospect in baseball for like two years in a row?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 7, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Evan (I can live with that Response)
Makes good sense. Still don’t think Hyde’s the one. Don’t know who is, he has a neat site, still don’t think he can judge talent, but it’s a blog and he tries to put together a good product. I’ll give him that.
Urbina is the Pena/Marte blast from last year. I know Toby didn’t put him in his Top 10 like Rubin did.
Nite, it’s late..Good response though Mr Evan!
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Nov 7, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
except this year, Hyde uses PitchFx to describe why Niese is becoming better and will be successful
while Rubin’s mostly been feeding into the “Mets farm system is absymal” idiocy.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 7, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hyde needs to really think when he writes this list!
All I can say like I say later on, is that he had Marte, Pena, Moviel, Gee, Kunz, etc etc in his top 12 last year.
I know Toby can’t play the game for them, but he doesn’t know the Mets Minor League system. Better than Rubin, possibly, but he too isn’t on it.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Nov 7, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Moviel had been healthy, I don't think he would be a mistake at this point.
I get the feeling he’ll have a very good season in Binghamton.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 7, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How the fuck
is Thole 8 and Niese 6? They both had solid call ups.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 6, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you can put too much into their call-ups as they were the definition of small sample size.
Based on their body of work this season, they are probably both pretty close. I’d agree that Niese is rated too low.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 6, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't out too much into their call-ups
See: Daniel Murphy
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
okay, but wouldn't you want the prospects list
to be rated on who is closest to contributing to the major league team?
In that case, I’d go with Niese 1, Thole 2, Ike 3 and F! 4.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 7, 2009 6:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Prospect lists shouls be on who is most likey to contribute the most to the team at some point
A great year at single A by a 19 year old is better than an average year at triple A by a 25 year old (not that I’m saying you say any different). Niese should probably be 4 or 5 in my opinion, in part because of his solid call up, but mostly because of how well he pitched in triple A the past year. Regarding Thole, based on his tools, he seems to be at best an average catcher, which is valuable, but guys like Flores, Holt, Havens, and even Tejada and Nieuwenhuis in my opinion, have a significantly higher ceiling that makes them more valuable. I like Thole a lot but he pretty much has to hit above .300 or become a really solid defender to be a starting catcher. His lack of power, no speed and below average defense make him a low ceiling type player, but his steady hitting, low strikeouts rate and solid walk rate, make him a safe bet to be a capable major league hitter. Thole’s ranking comes from his position and your opinion on results vs. projection. To me, 8 seems very reasonable. I’d have him at 9 or 10, and could see him as high as 7, but I wouldn’t go any higher than that.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 7, 2009 6:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't define the list like that
Fernando Martinez has been our number one prospect for what. two or three years now? Three years ago, he would have been 17/18, and nowhere near actually being ready to contribute to the Major League team. I think it’s defined on theoretical ceiling potential at their positions.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 7, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Urbina's potential, but you can't possibly take him over Familia, Niuwenhuis, or Allen.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 6, 2009 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Join the community and dive in!
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
