Scouts opinions and grains of salt
"Here’s what one scout who watched Familia closely said about him: "He’s got arm strength, that’s it. Great kid. Arm strength. Bad delivery. No breaking ball. Walked six guys the outing I saw him. Everything in delivery messed up. Was up to 95 mph. Doesn’t get through with his back side, no real balance, misses up in zone because doesn’t follow through/finish. He can’t because of the rest of stuff that’s going on."
Sorry for making yet another thread discussing BA's Top 10 but this response regarding Familia's ranking really perplexed me. From watching just one start, the scout not only is able to trash Jeurys mechinics as well as call him a one dimensional pitcher but convince Rubin and whoever else helped with the list to not consider Familia for the Top 10.
Here's my problem though. First of all, looking at Familia's game logs, Familia has never walked 6 batters in a game in his career. There was one start where he walked 5 in his first start in May. So maybe he's talking about this start and the scout was off by one, no big deal right? Well, to me it is. If the scout can vividly recall that he "doesn’t get through with his back side" and his other claims, he should also have remembered the walks, I would think.
More importantly, I don't understand how one start is any kind of sample size to make the claims the scout makes. I mean sure his job is to be confident about what he sees in select viewing but shouldn't Rubin be pointing out the problem with basing opinions on one start, I mean Felix Hernandez and Johan both walked 6 batters this year and I would think scouts in the stands would be able to question their mechanics on those given days.
Ranting aside, Familia was 19 years old this season. He threw 140 innings with a 7.02 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 0.19 HR/9!, and a 48.8% GB rate. If poor mechanics get these results, I'll take it.
13 days ago
Sokojoe
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I had the same reaction to that quote from the chat
though I think Familia is a little overrated because his great ERA doesn’t really reflect his OK performance.
by Sam Page on Nov 7, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is the thing
It is possible for a guy like Familia to be pretty one dimensional and get away with it in A-ball. He may be better than a lot of the SAL competition, but its tough to evaluate a solid but unspectacular performance in the lower levels. And it probably won’t get any easier with guys like Familia and Allen and Carson next year in the FSL, anyone of them could wind up getting way more hype than they probably deserve. It will be interesting to watch, its really the first time since Omar took over that the Mets have had an interesting group of arms come through the lower levels of the system. But a lot of these guys aren’t really going to get tested until they hit Double-A. If any or all of them have low ERAs and mediocre K-rates next year, they might be good candidates to sell on.
In general, I have a feeling a year from now we’re going to be talking about this system as having taken a big step forward, and some of it may be superficial. Next year’s Double-A team should include 5 of the Top 10 in OPS from last year’s FSL. And most of those guys aren’t getting a ton of attention right now, just Havens, who people have mixed feelings about, and Nieuwenhuis, who seems to be considered a legit breakout. Lutz and Guzman could have big years in Double-A too. Plus all these interesting if unspectacular arms are going into the FSL, the league of the league average ~.680 OPS. And in addition, you’ll have a Triple-A team that might feature Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole out of the gate? That’s six of BA’s top ten all in Buffalo. All seem conducive to a big year for the farm.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 7, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not to mention bowman
wouldn’t be surprised to see him build on his solid AA debut.
i’m tempering my enthusiam w/ tejada though. part of me wonders if he should start the year back in binghamton and catch his breath. following his poor ‘08 season in A+ it looked like ’09 was going to be a bernazard-induced disaster w/ him inexplicably jumping up to AA. and then out of nowhere he was solid if not better. i don’t want us to push our luck and have him really struggle in AAA, because he was solid this year but certainly not forcing his way to the next level by any means.
by robcast23 on Nov 7, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that's true
Mejia and Holt could probably stand to start in Double-A too, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them in Triple-A, if not on opening day then not too long after.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Nov 7, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'd start them both in AA
and leave them at least a couple months. if either (or both) of them is really looking like he belongs, send him up to buffalo around the break (no earlier than june though). neither of the 2 performed well enough in binghamton that i’d feel comfortable w/ them in AAA before that point. both showed declining key indicators which obviously point to more work required before they’re ready.
by robcast23 on Nov 8, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is true,
when you look at his FIP with park factors and luck adjustment, suddenly he doesn’t look so great, but yeah the scouts lazy assessment really got to me.
by Sokojoe on Nov 8, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More importantly, I don’t understand how one start is any kind of sample size to make the claims the scout makes.
The Indians are trying to keep track of prospects with Pitch F/X in the near future, so they can have a better idea about whether or not that day was an aberration or the norm, and cross-checking it with their scouting reports. Probably imperfect, but a great start.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 8, 2009 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, Omar thinks PitchFx is the company that has those loud ad things at the start of movies.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As I recall
Omar thinks looking at stuff like Pitchf/x and using numbers and math to find out a players true talent level is lazy.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 8, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as opposed to going to one game and evaluating a guy by that one game.
that’s the RIGHT way to do it.
I know no politics on this site, but let’s just say I seem to be having similar frustrations I might have during an election year that I have whenever I contemplate front offices in baseball. aaaaaargh
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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