It is possible for a guy like Familia to be pretty one dimensional and get away with it in A-ball. He may be better than a lot of the SAL competition, but its tough to evaluate a solid but unspectacular performance in the lower levels. And it probably won’t get any easier with guys like Familia and Allen and Carson next year in the FSL, anyone of them could wind up getting way more hype than they probably deserve. It will be interesting to watch, its really the first time since Omar took over that the Mets have had an interesting group of arms come through the lower levels of the system. But a lot of these guys aren’t really going to get tested until they hit Double-A. If any or all of them have low ERAs and mediocre K-rates next year, they might be good candidates to sell on.

In general, I have a feeling a year from now we’re going to be talking about this system as having taken a big step forward, and some of it may be superficial. Next year’s Double-A team should include 5 of the Top 10 in OPS from last year’s FSL. And most of those guys aren’t getting a ton of attention right now, just Havens, who people have mixed feelings about, and Nieuwenhuis, who seems to be considered a legit breakout. Lutz and Guzman could have big years in Double-A too. Plus all these interesting if unspectacular arms are going into the FSL, the league of the league average ~.680 OPS. And in addition, you’ll have a Triple-A team that might feature Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole out of the gate? That’s six of BA’s top ten all in Buffalo. All seem conducive to a big year for the farm.

when you look at his FIP with park factors and luck adjustment, suddenly he doesn’t look so great, but yeah the scouts lazy assessment really got to me.

Omar thinks looking at stuff like Pitchf/x and using numbers and math to find out a players true talent level is lazy.