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Leave Brett Myers On The Scrap Heap

Brett Myers's Phillies tenure officially ended this past week and he will be a free agent.  The controversial righty made it known after a meeting with general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.:

I officially won’t be a Phillie next year.

Myers tore a labrum in his hip this past season, requiring surgery.  Usually a starting pitcher, he was placed in the bullpen upon returning in September and struggled (7 IP, 4:3 K/BB, 6.43 ERA).  He is in the group of talented but risky starting pitchers available this offseason, including Rich Harden, Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard.  These types likely won't garner large contracts or multi-year deals but are worth considering (especially Harden, a personal favorite).  When deciding whether to pursue Myers there are 2 factors to consider: his on-field performance and off-the-field performance.

Star-divide

A quick look at Myers's defense independent pitching stats shows us his biggest problem - home runs:

Year IP FIP xFIP tERA
2005 215.1 4.06 3.49 4.93
2006 198 4.14 3.89 4.31
2007* 68.2 3.75 3.31 3.90
2008 190 4.52 4.01 4.96
2009 70.2 6.14 4.39 6.50

* - Myers pitched out of the bullpen for almost all of 2007

Generally xFIP is the best or 2nd best statistic for evaluating a pitcher's luck-independent performance.  It normalizes the highly variable home run rate based on the number of fly balls a pitcher allows.  In this case, it might not be so useful.  Myers is consistently among the league leaders in home runs allowed per fly ball, and his career HR/9 of 1.35 seems like a reflection of his true talent level rather than the bad luck that xFIP suggests.  Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox but about half of the home runs he's allowed in his career have come on the road, so small home field dimensions are not solely to blame.  Aside from home runs, Myers is a solid pitcher - K/BB of 2.39 and ground-ball rate of 47.3% for his career. 

At age 29 and coming off a full offseason of rest, it wouldn't be aggressive to think Myers can be an average starting pitcher next season.  He's also open to pitching in relief.  Given his affinity for southern redneck culture, who knows if he would even consider signing with the Mets.  It might be a decent, low-cost signing on paper.  In reality, Myers is a player the Mets should, and likely will, avoid.

In June 2006, Myers was arrested for punching his wife in the face while in Boston for a Phillies-Red Sox series.  Although his wife Kim eventually had the charges dropped, the fact remains that this 6'4" 225 lbs. man punched his wife in the face in a public setting.  Outstanding Brett, we'll get you a(nother) case of beer for that one.

Maybe this is a tad hypocritical coming from someone who advocated signing Barry Bonds and trading for Milton Bradley, but on my moral continuum women-beating is far worse than steroid use or tantrum throwing.  If Brett Myers signed with the Mets I would openly root against him.

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That last sentence is unnecessary.

I don’t think there is anyone, other than a sportswriter or ESPN/FOX commentator, who thinks that steroid use and/or being a baby is worse than hitting a woman, regarding baseball that is. I actually don’t care how good or bad he will be, I couldn’t root for him for that reason alone. Hopefully he doesn’t get a contract and commits another crime where the charges are not dropped so he can go to jail, where he belongs.

And I like Sheets better than Harden, assuming both are healthy. I really think both will be had for relatively cheap making them low risk high reward. I’d really be happy if the Mets can sign one of them in addition to a more stable guy.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 8, 2009 6:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

that's funny

it does seem like every time a player commits a violent crime, there’s always some espn talking head playing the “he deserves a second change” card. While steroid users are human scum who should be banished to the remote wilderness where they will live out their days hunting rodents for sustenance.

Needless to say, I wouldn’t touch Brett Myers with your’s.

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Nov 8, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts exactly

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not hypocritical at all.

With you 100%.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 8, 2009 9:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm a Cubs fan, proprietor of the SBN Cubs site Bleed Cubbie Blue.

You want Milton Bradley? Make us an offer.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Nov 8, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ollie

…and a rosin bag.

by fxcarden on Nov 8, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ollie

and we’ll throw in Omir Santos

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 8, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nah, Ollie and Francoeur

for Bradley and Fontenot

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 8, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd keep Ollie.

We’d need him to trade to the Tigers for Willis. At least Dontrelle, while he can’t pitch right now, is a decent hitter. Horrible contract switches all around!

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 8, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great breakdown of Myers. The one reason for not signing him is what James closed the article with: openly rooting against him. There will be many more fans, like James, that will do the same. This gives him no margin of error in an already tough town.

One things regarding the flyballs and homers – I would imagine CBP playing a huge role in that scenario.

by MikeSilvaNYBD on Nov 8, 2009 10:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Per James's post:
Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox but about half of the home runs he’s allowed in his career have come on the road, so small home field dimensions are not solely to blame.

Myers HR/9:

2009
Home: 1.85
Away: 2.70

2008
Home: 1.19
Away: 1.58

2007
Home: 1.88 (just 38 ip)
Away: 0.30 (just 30 ip)

2006

Home: 1.47
Away: 1.19

If Citizen’s Bank Park played a significant role in Myers’s homeruns allowed it certainly doesn’t manifest itself in his home/road splits.

by Eric Simon on Nov 8, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brett Mysers really isn't even that great.

He had two seasons with an ERA under four, with 200 +/- IP. Asides for those two years, his stats have been uninspiring, at best, he’s coming off of surgery and is no lock for even his uninspiring performance, he is going to demand more money than he’s probably worth, due to his previous contracts ($3.3, %5.1, and $8.6 million, respectively, in ‘08, ’07, and ’06), and the general fanbase already has negative-bordering-hostile opinions of him. With more high-impact gamble players available, and the glut of mediocre starting pitching the Mets already have (Maine, Pelfrey, Perez), there’s no real reason to peruse Myers.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 8, 2009 12:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

here is a strange thought

Since there isn’t really a true ace out there after Lackey this year, why not do something a little wild and out there. Why not offer Bedard, Harden and Sheets each 2 year incentive laden deals for around the price that Lackey would command yearly split between them as their base (5-7 mill guarenteed each). This really hedges the bet of picking the wrong one, Even if all of them get hurt after pitching 10 games, you got 30 games from ace type starters for 15-20 mil. its sort of like they form voltron and give you one full season. If more than one of them stay healthy, watch out league!

by Asawisemansaid on Nov 8, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but the problem is

other teams that might want their services might be more desperate for pitching, and might be willing to overpay for them, even with their injury risks, driving up the prices for everyone.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 8, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Mets should absolutely sign Rich Harden.

Then with Sheets and Bedard, they could do what the Yankees did with Mussina and Manny Ramirez: offer the same contract, and whoever accepts it first gets the contract.

by Metzfan22 on Nov 8, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

clarification

I dont think he was talking the exact same contract monetarily, i think he meant in terms of having the same deal (whatever it may be) on the table for both players, and taking whichever signs on the dotted line.
Personally, I don’t think this is a good idea with players coming off injury, or even in general. Every player is different, every injury is different, you need to evaluate who is more likely to stay healthy, and who is more valuable to you and make your contract offers accordingly. that said, as I stated, I’d want to offer all 3 of them deals, and actively pursue all 3 as much as budget allows.

by Asawisemansaid on Nov 9, 2009 8:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


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