Mets Extend Offers to Bengie Molina and Jason Bay
by Sam Page on Dec 10, 2009 2:39 PM EST
Email
PrintAccording to David Lennon's Twitter:
#Mets finally show hand. Source confirms first two offers going out are to Molina and Bay.
Looks like the Mets could be signing their Raul Ibanez and their...well no one as bad as Bengie Molina has the contract we're probably offering. Maybe Jason Kendall.
Jason Bay is a very good player, a fantastic hitter, a sharped-dressed man, and a poor fielder. We can speculate that the fielding might not be as bad as it seems, with the Green Monster and Fenway's other leftfield quirks, but that's small comfort. He'd be an improvement, but not the best long-term investment for a NL team. CHONE projects +21 batting runs and -4 fielding runs (I'd take that). He does two things well that the Mets aren't used to: walking and hitting homeruns.
Bengie Molina is not good! Chone projects -15 batting runs, -3 fielding runs. I project -20 basrunning runs.
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Not to mention
the projected -32 fries in your Boxed Frites.
by pricedoutoftheciti on Dec 10, 2009 2:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This doesn't preclude offering to Holliday later down the road
They might be trying to bring Holliday’s price down, or save money for a pitcher.
I thought about that, but the offer is apparently for five years. Doesn’t seem like a low ball offer to try and get the price down on Holliday.
Former GM Jim Bowden said on Twitter that the Mets may offer a five-year contract to free-agent OF Jason Bay, as the Red Sox are holding out on a four-year deal.
by Mike Clemente on Dec 10, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I read somewhere this morning that they prefer Bay to Holliday
Possibly mostly because of price.
You get what you pay for...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
True. This is Omar Minaya we're talking about, paying people.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have Holiday
but I’ll “settle” for Bay.
I think as far as Molina goes, it is what it is. We’d rather not have him, but not facing the inevitable is always a fool’s game. He’ll be kind of like a permanent limp: you’d rather not have it, but it’s there…
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
Along with that ugly plastic surgery scar (Castillo)
that nasty mole on our chin (Francouer), that breakout of acne (Ollie)…
like, I could go on all night. A person could be functional with just one of those problems, but ALL of them? They’re screwed.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Sharp-dressed man?
Do we really need another Beau Brummell?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 10, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions
Well, at least we'll look good.
That counts for something?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 10, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not as down on Bay as some
He’s not Matt Holliday, but he’s not going to get paid like Matt Holliday. I wish there were some Home/Road split zone rating type numbers to refer to to see if the Green Monster did effect his defense. And at the same time, this may not be a testable argument, but he’s not Adam Dunn. He has a much leaner body-type and is about an average runner from what I understand. He doesn’t hurt you (or help you) on the basepaths, so his poor defense could be as much about poor technique as poor raw tools. That’s not to say I think he’ll improve, but in terms of a long term investment, he’s less likely to get worse than a guy with a classic DH body-type and tool set.
The way I see it, if Bay gets paid about $15 mil per season, he’s roughly a neutral value. He’ll probably average about 3 WAR per year for the next 4 or 5 years, which would roughly justify that kind of investment, but not really anything more. The reason Holliday is more appealing is because even if he does get paid considerably more, he’s also much more likely to go Carlos Beltran on us and put up a sustained run where he’s outproducing the value of his contract for a number of years.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 2:31 PM EST reply actions
His defense was pretty bad in Pittsburgh too wasnt it?
Not as bad as Boston, and I’d believe the green monster was a big problem because Manny apparently improved a pretty large margin in LA, but he wasn’t an average defender to begin with was he?
to clarify
I don’t think that partial season proves meddler’s point one way or the other…just something to consider
Yeah I looked at that too, it doesn't tell us a whole lot
Its hard to tell just looking year-by-year exactly how/why his defense fell off. Did he actually get worse? Or did the negative aspects of yearly normal distribution for UZR just happen to swing unfavorably before he was traded. It looks like its probably the former but its hard to tell.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
i think its pretty simple
his D has declined for the same reason he hasn’t come close to stealing 20+ bases again like he did as a rookie, he’s just gotten slower as he’s aged. not a ridiculously uncommon problem and now as a result, his defense is bad, bordering on terrible. and in 2-3 years it will most likely be consistently terrible which is why i don’t touch him for anything past 3 years.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 10, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that does seem like the most likely conclusion
But the point is more its hard to tell just how bad its gotten. Over the last three years its been -13.8 UZR/150. There could be an element of that that is unluckier than it seems, just by virtue of the fact that he had a poor year in 2007 and then took a hit from having to play Fenway. He might not have, he might really be a -10 or -15 defender, but its more likely that he’s a bit better than that than a bit worse.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Also the thing is Holliday is only being projected to get 16-18, 18 at the very most
per season. So how much are we even saying for a decidedly lesser player?
And yet, like in the case of Beltran, most fans and newspaper types will assume that he is overpaid.
by boom_roasted on Dec 10, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Who Bay?
Fans and newspaper types seem to adore him. I imagine Holliday would be the one they think is overpaid.
He's apparently going to get paid only $1 or $2 mil less than Holliday.
So, THAT would be terrible.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
So concievably
He could be a little shy of a 4 win player? I guess that’s not as bad, but still he’s a year older than Holliday, a clearly lesser player, and the contract offer people have mentioned doesn’t seem to be that much less than what Holliday could expect.
Yeah that's pretty much what I'm thinking
A quick take on his wOBA projections and being ultra conservative for defense (I gave him about -10) I got him around 3.0 WAR for the CHONE offensive numbers and 3.4 for the James offensive numbers. If its $15 mil per year, its reasonable, but a lesser value than Holliday at $20 mil per year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
James's numbers are garbage
How do you get 3 WAR for Bay? I got 2.2 for Bay (with -11 UZR/150) and 4.6 for Holliday using CHONE.
Don't forget 2012 and 2013, either
If Bay can barely play the OF now, there’s an excellent chance he won’t be able to play it at all before the contract expires.
He’s a real mistake for an NL team.
Besides, all these projections figure that, if we’re LUCKY, he’ll actually be worth his contract. No one is projecting he’ll be worth $75-80 million over the next four years, and he could easily be worth $45 million or less.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
This is one of the other things I was saying
Aside from the defensive numbers getting obscured a bit by the Green Monster, Bay may be bad defensively, but he’s not some big, lumbering, Adam Dunn type. He’s an average runner and has a much more typical outfielder’s body type. He may lose some range as he ages, but he probably won’t become immobile. Its probably more his skills in charging an route running which are a problem, which aren’t really things that should change due to age.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
This is one of the other things I was saying
Aside from the defensive numbers getting obscured a bit by the Green Monster, Bay may be bad defensively, but he’s not some big, lumbering, Adam Dunn type. He’s an average runner and has a much more typical outfielder’s body type. He may lose some range as he ages, but he probably won’t become immobile. Its probably more his skills in charging an route running which are a problem, which aren’t really things that should change due to age.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops, dunno what happened there
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Feeling strongly about the issue? :)
But Adam Dunn is so dreadful acc to UZR there’s no way he should be playing the OF. Bay is among the worst OFers who can still juuuust get away with playing the OF. Doesn’t mean you want him there, it just means he can fake it a little.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
adam dunn needs to be set free
to the al. it doesn’t make sense that he’s been stuck in the nl for so long. he’s like destined to be a dh but just can’t escape.
Are you sure you're weighting the projections correctly for CHONE?
Even if you just take the 21 R/150 that’s 21 R/15 + 21 Replacement + -7.5 Position + -11 fielding = 23.5. I gave him an extra run for defense from your mark, and when I converted the CHONE figures to wOBA (which was how I calculated it instead of using his R/150 mark) I got a bit above 24 offensive runs above average, so I had 24.5 batting + 21 replacement + -7.5 positional + -10 defense +1.5 baserunning = and he’s a slightly better than average baserunner the last couple years (2.5 in 2008, 1.2 in 2009) = 29.5 RAR or roughly 3 WAR.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
That is
using the wOBA method from the Book
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
Over 622 PAs I get
.365 wOBA from (1.66OBP+SLG)/3 = wOBA, and then 18.93 batting from ((wOBA-leaguewOBA)/1.15)*PA. I get -10.56 defense, -6.66 positional, and 20.73 replacement. Added up that is 2.24 WAR.
Jeff Zimmerman at BtB got 2.3 WAR for Bay, but he used -10 UZR.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/11/24/1171608/projected-war-and-contract-values
Yeah, I'd gotten .369 I believe
Don’t have the patience to run through all the numbers again, but that does seem to be weighing his 2007 too much considering his career context. His next lowest single-season wOBAs besides that are .378 (2004) and .387 (2008).
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Defense
I was always under the impression that playing LF at Fenway required limited range because there is so little room to cover. So, after making the necessary adjustments to the unique aspects of Fenway’s left field, shouldn’t have Bay’s defense improved, rather than gotten worse, at Fenway?
Of course, he only played 1.5 seasons at Fenway, so perhaps that wasn’t enough to adjust.
No, it has to do with the way balls bounce off the wall in different directions
I’ve never really heard about the SIZE of the outfield, and whether that would make a player cover more or less ground normally.
Well, I didn’t mean that his actual defense would improve, but rather his defensive statistics would improve because his zone shrinks. But I’m not too familiar with the nuts and bolts of UZR and the like, so I’m probably way off base.
Not sure--I've also heard
that the monster turns a lot of outs into singles and doubles, thereby making Red Sox LFers look worse than they would in a typically configured OF.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
isn't that a deficiency in the fielding ratings?
shouldn’t it consider balls hit off the wall that are uncatchable to be of no statistical value and therefore ignored?
by Mike Clemente on Dec 10, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a deficiency in method
But the other aspect of it is that having a small amount of ground to cover but a technically difficult outfield to make reads, run routes, and position yourself in (like LF in Fenway) would emphasize technique over things like pure speed and range more than other fields. Since Bay really isn’t a poor runner (not a great one, but about average) and his spd rating rating hasn’t changed since his Pirate days, and aside from his one 20 SB season his baserunning numbers haven’t changed much either, it seems likely that his flaws are more in technique than in raw talent and mobility. When he was a Pirate, his RngR was actually relatively decent except in 2007, the year before he was traded, and was considerably better in the first half of 2008 and then fell back off after the trade. Half his games are still on the road, so it seems probably that he simply has lost some range, but its also possible he’s not playing the monster as well as outfielders with different skills than him, and so his deficiencies are getting overstated. He might be better served in a more traditional outfield with more room, where he can take more advantage of his speed and worry less about making complicated reads and running weird routes and setting up in strange positions.
If you look at his fangraphs spd ratings, his lowest mark was in 2007 (3.8), also his worst defensive year up until that point by a wide margin. Since then, its moved back into its nominal range (5.5 and 5.3 in 2008 and 2009 respectively, both above his 5.0 career mark), but his defense has remained poor. I still don’t think he’ll get all that close to average, but if his talent level outside Fenway was closer to a -5 UZR/150 I wouldn’t be surprised.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Also, for what its worth
The only COFers with speed ratings of 4.0 or greater and UZRs below -5.0 in at least 50 defensive games played were:
-Chris Coghlan (5.2 spd, -11.1 UZR), a rookie and converted infielder
-Ryan Braun (5.9 spd, -14.4 UZR), a converted infielder
-Alfonso Soriano (4.4 spd, -10.8 UZR), another converted infielder, also his first year with negative UZR in the outfield.
-Johnny Damon (5.8 spd, -9.2 UZR), one of the few outfielders in baseball who’s UZR is weighted greater by his (crappy) arm than his range (-4.2 arm, .-3.7 RngR, unusual).
-Chase Headley (4.1 spd, -7.8 UZR), another converted infielder
-Michael Cuddyer (5.4 spd, -16.6 UZR) yet another converted infielder, had only played 59 games in the outfield in 2008.
-Bobby Abreu (5.6 spd, -11.0 UZR), a notoriously good baserunner and terrible outfielder.
-Jeff Francoeur (4.3 spd, -5.9 UZR) one of the outliers here, since he has a decent speed rating and terrible RngR, though he has a significantly lower speed rating than Bay.
-Alex Rios (5.3 spd, -6.0 UZR), probably an anomaly, he’s had terrific range every other season and had a ridiculous 20.1 RngR in 2008.
-Corey Hart (5.3 spd, -5.1 UZR) like Damon, another case where the Arm (-3.4) contributed more than RngR (-1.0), and like Rios, has a recent history of better range.
-Nolan Reimold (4.1 spd, -10.8 UZR), Rookie
-Ben Francisco (4.8 spd, -6.4 UZR), huh?
Aside from Francoeur, Hart, Rios, and Damon, these are all guys who you expect to do a below average job of translating their raw talent into technique and skill. Lots of rookies and converted infielders, and of course Bobby Abreu, who can’t run a route within 15 feet of a fence. Hart and Rios both have very recent histories of average and plus range (respectively). Damon has a not so recent history of plus range, and even now his range is decent enough, its his arm that holds him back, and the same can be said for Hart to a lesser extent.
No other COFer with a UZR below -5.0 and at least 50 defensive games played had a spd rating over 4.0. This list includes Milton Bradley, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, Garrett Anderson, Carlos Lee, Delmon Young, Adam Dunn, Carlos Quentin, Adam Lind, Manny Ramirez, Chris Duncan, Josh Willingham, Jose Guillen, Brian Giles, and Jack Cust. Here’s where you see the more traditional"DH-types," lumbering sluggers like Cust and Dunn and older vets like Anderson, Dye, Bradley, Manny, and Giles.
Maybe like Frenchy, Bay’s just the ugly duckling in this scheme, minus the plus arm, but his RngR really did seem to drop off once he hit Fenway so maybe he’ll bounce back at least a bit.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Iirc correctly it should be in the neighborhood of 5-7% per year for a guy his age.
Though it may be worse than that since he has an old player’s skills.
Think Kevin McReynolds. Sold ballplayer going into his 30s, declined ages 31-32, done by 34. And McReynolds had some speed.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Bay I suppose I can live with
it looks like the mets are taking the mashers appoach to victory and fielding be damned. At least we’re doing SOMETHING this offseason, whether its the best move or not, i was beginning to wonder if Omar even remembered the offseason was going on.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 10, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions
I'll be happy if I can at least discern a "plan" at some point.
Even if it’s a terrible one.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 10, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
their plan is our power was down
so go after guys who hit home runs. Our pitching additions will probably be dontrelle willis and mike hampton
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh
Would much rather have Holliday + no catcher than this, but it is what it is. I agree with Meddler that Bay’s not as terrible a signing as he’s been made out to be, but it just doesn’t make sense when there is a much better option out there. Hopefully this is a ploy and the Mets do end up with Holliday.
Regarding Bay’s defense – would it help at all that he would be playing next to Beltran? Looking at Fangraphs, Ellsbury is actually a pretty bad CF, so maybe playing next to Beltran will, at the very least, hide some of Bay’s deficiencies.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Totally agree
If the combined Bay/Molina money is comparable to what it would have cost for Holliday/Zaun, then I’ll really be upset.
At least this time we’d be giving a questionable contract to a good player, as opposed to the past two offseasons, where we gave questionable (at best) contracts to bad players.
So I guess that’s progress?
by Bieser's Balk on Dec 10, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
trust me...it will be.
If Bay is apparently going to be paid only a little below Holliday, than Molina’s massive contract will tip the scales.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Apparently too Omar wants to "get this done" and is concerned (from Heynman)
that the bidding on Holliday will go well into the next year.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Also, where the hell does Omar have to be after the New Year
does he have some long vacation planned that will prevent him from negotiations? Why is he in a rush all of a sudden?
He had to give Ollie too much money last year
because he was cleverly waiting everyone out, as had worked so well the previous year with Santana. Omar seems able only to consider the previous year’s issues.
How on Earth
is the possibility that negotiations may go into next year a good reason not to try to do the best thing for the team?
Beltran
I’m very concerned about Beltran’s knee condition. I have serious doubts that he can provide the kind of defense in CF we’ve come to expect, especially for 150 games or so.
I think he could provide strong defense
I wonder more how many games can he play regularly before knee pain flares up again?
I hope you're right. My only comfort is that the Red Sox apparently felt Bay was worth a 4/60 offer.
Though I believe they’ll have the DH slot open fairly soon.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
What about Thole? n/t
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
He's not ready just yet.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Who cares...
He’s still better and much cheaper than Fattie Molina.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 10, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
At first I read this and thought
this comment is dumb Thole’s clearly not ready…
then I thought about it and realized you’re probably right, it’s hard to imagine Thole being bad enough to be a worse option, all together, than Molina. Never mind when you factor in paying league minimum vs 2/12.
True. I'd rather try Blanco and Santos, and bring up Thole midseason
tha commit 2/12 to Molina
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want Bay over Holliday, but I'd prefer Bay to most other outfield options out there that are availible.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:25 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, the real problem with Bay
Is in the short term, does he really project any better than Mike Cameron? I agree though, I wouldn’t be horribly offended by Bay, even if he’s not my first choice.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Bay has the better offense. Cameron has the better defense.
Cameron will be a lot cheaper, that’s for sure.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
How?
Cameron has barely played outside of CF his whole career. A half season marred by a fluke injury hardly proves anything. Plus, he still had a 1.6 UZR/150 in limited playing time in 2005.
Plus, UZR is weighted in comparison to others that play at the position. Compared to most left fielders, Cameron will probably be outstanding.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 10, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that's what happens with DeJesus
and Endy, despite their below average bats their defense is so above average at the position it makes up for it.
But that’s clearly past the mets comprehension.
isn't that what the positional adjustment is for?
to try to get the value, if the player played at any position?
Well not really
Obviously it wouldn’t tell you a players value if they moved from like 1b to ss since you have no idea how their defense would play, a +11 first basemen could be a -40 ss or something. So its not like you can just change the positional adjustment and get an answer, you sort of can with the outfield positions since the skill sets aren’t as varied.
No, I don't think so...
The positional adjustment is for overall value. If you get equal production from a shortstop and a first baseman, the shortstop is obviously more valuable.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 10, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think the positional adjustments come from what happened
when players switched positions. Like a 0 UZR LF moving to CF would be -10 UZR.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/uzr_positional_adjustments_revised_with_2008_uzr/
Yeah that's right...
UZR is adjusted by position. But in addition, when determined an all-encompassing statistic, such as WAR, further positional adjustments are made.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Read Meddler's post that got bumped to the front page....
He does a better job explaining than I do (because he apparently has time to draw out a long explanation).
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I mean at least their not signing Jeff Francoeur to an extension
oh.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Shh
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was hoping that Francoeur got selected in the Rule V draft
because Omar messed up the paperwork. That’s false hustle
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 10, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
And there it is...
Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Mets have offered a four year, $65 million deal to Jason Bay.
Yeah, on a four year deal that wouldn't be toooo terrible, but its probably too high an AAV
I don’t think he’ll be worth that much over the next four years.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Not a bad deal
but I’d prefer Holliday
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 10, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Eh...
That comes out to be about $16.25 million dollars per year. We assume that Holliday is going to cost anywhere between $17-$20 million, for around four to five years, also. Might as well commit the extra $3 million or so, and go for Holliday.
See, here’s where Omar giving a lot of those ridiculously overpriced little deals comes back to haunt us…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
And that's assuming Holliday would even cost 3 million more per
It’s not unreasonable that Holliday could only get 16-18 million.
God that would be a disaster
If we give Bay over $16 mil per year and Holliday comes in under $18 mil per year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
If Bay signs for $16 million, there is no way Holliday signs for $18 milllion
Boras is not stupid, and will certainly emphasize the fact that Holliday is younger and way better defensively
Emphasize it to who?
There has to be a market for him. And if we signed Bay that’s one less big market team. I cant imagine St. Louis doing it, especially with a need to extend Pujols coming up, the Red Sox have already said they won’t, and have proven they won’t give in to Boras’s demands if they don’t believe there’s a market with Tex last year. I can’t imagine the Yankees would, though who knows. Although the mets don’t often seem to realize it, the market works both ways, players can only take what teams are willing to offer to them and there’s not many teams who can and will offer Holliday more than that.
I seriously doubt the Red Sox would let him hang out there
And if the Mets and the Red Sox don’t sign him, you know some random mysterious team will likely pop up and give Boras the ridiculous amount he requests.
Of course, this is all speculation at this. We will not get Bay for 4/65 and I’m sure his agent wouldn’t let him sign with the Mets unless he was sure no better offer from the Sawx and Mariners.
The Red Sox did it with the better/younger player in Tex
If they don’t think anyone’s going to offer more to Holliday why would they suddenly change their approach now?
But it's not about how much he costs
It’s the fact, that before the Yankees swooped in which at the time no one was expecting, the Red Sox refused to budge from their final offer when they knew no one was offering more. So unless someone is going to offer more than 18 million, and I return to the question of who is there to to do that, why would they offer more than what they think will be the highest offer? Especially with Cameron still out there, and trade possibilities.
I think you're overestimating the market a bit
Maybe I’m underestimating it, but I feel like what the Mets offered for Bay is pretty high, and at least in terms of AAV should be up there with any other offer he gets. Then if the Red Sox decide to bow out on Holliday for real, which they very well could unless the Yankees start getting heavily involved, Holliday could wind up south of $20 million per.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
given that the inital offer on him was 4/60 i'm just glad the Mets didn't immediately counter with 10/150 or something
so relatively speaking not bad. I’d rather the money went to hday7 or cameron + a starting pitcher though.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 11, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Something tells me this is the Mets way to miss out on both Bay and Holliday
The Mets will focus on Bay, because they know his heart is set on returning to Boston or possibly Seattle. While they do this, they tell the fans that Bay is who we want, etc.etc. While Holliday signs with another team.
----Warner----
-------13-------
by Scent of a Woman on Dec 10, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions
Seems about right.
I know I’ve never heard anything linking with us. I’ve heard Boston, Seattle, and Anaheim. At least with Holliday, we have reports linking him to us. Sure, it’s about the money, but at least we know he’s interested.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why I don't understand why they would make such a high offer to Bay
before making an offer Holliday.
Too true. Bay is who you settle for if you can't sign Holliday.
You DON’T start by offering Bay as much as he’s conceivably worth over the life of the contract.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
I see us getting Holliday
If Bay goes back to Boston, what is the market for Holliday?
He may have St.Louis in his heart, but St. Louis will not offer him nearly enough.
The only other team with even remote interest is the Yankees, and everything I’ve heard says they’re going cheaper with LF.
I agree
The market seems weak on Holliday, perhaps because they’re scared off by Boras. I think it’s very possible for the Mets to land him at a decent price. And Boras was practically begging the Mets to make an offer yesterday.
What about Seattle...
Is there a chance they match this offer for Bay?
If he's willing to take a little hometown discount
The Mariners have a lot coming off the books. I don’t know the exact amount, but…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm okay with Bay getting an offer...
but Molina is a waste of resources IMO. That money could be better spent on pitching.
Or anything..
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 10, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Bay is a good player and a huge upgrade over the crap that played LF last season. Still though, 16+ per? Holliday is far superior, and the difference between the two in terms of average salary per season (even if Holliday gets 20 million per year which I doubt) will be made up through Holliday’s increased production. That is without even considering the fact that Bay, at a year older and with diminishing wheels, is more likely to take a hit during the duration of his contract than Holliday (at least Holliday’s first 4-5 years).
Nice to see the Mets at least trying to add an impact player though. Enough of the Cerrone “It’s not WHO they get… I mean, as they say…. it’s HOW you spend your money…” nonsense. Yes, spend your money on the best players. Don’t spend it on the bad players. Spend it on Holliday ideally, but Bay is fine. Don’t spend it on Molina when the same production can be given by cheaper players. Etc.
For this type of money though, Mets would be better off going Lackey/Cameron than say Bay/Marquis IMO.
Its amazing how
One of the big league regulars with the lowest OBP still manages to cost his team as many runs on the basepaths as anyone in the game.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Omar saw the wrong OBP
and thought it was .700, not .300
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 10, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
comment fail
Rest of the comment: And thought Molina’s OBP was .700, not .300
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 10, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
wtf
According to Heyman, the Mets feel Bay is as good of a defensive outfielder as free-agent OF Matt Holliday, with whom they have no interest in being involved in a long, drawn-out negotiation.
Is this for real? Are mets people actually this stupid? I know we all joke about it, but do they actually ignore all data saying otherwise?
even the fans think Bay is below average
and Holliday is above average. Do the Mets have some secret knowledge no one else has?
Do they even know this data exists? Serious question.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah they have an analytical department
God knows if they listen to them, or how advanced they are though.
Monkies with typewriters.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. Those things.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Holliday
Here is just something I have been wanting to know, since I just can’t find home and away splits on FanGraphs:
2008 OPS – Home: .997 Away: .892
2007 OPS – Home: 1.157 Away: .860
2006 OPS – Home: 1.132 Away: .819
2005 OPS – Home: 1.002 Away: .729
This is of course coupled with a similarly great OPS of 1.023 with the Cardinals last year after a mediocre stint with the A’s. However, I don’t think 63 games is big enough a sample size to declare that his real value either, much as I don’t think the 90 games with the A’s was enough to declare him average/mediocre. So is he closer to a plus 1.000 OPS or a plus .800?
Jason Bay seems to be the low to mid .900’s every year, for what it’s worth.
P.S. I’m not really trying to make a case against Holliday for those who will pounce on this comment, just thought it should be made a note of.
There's some evidence that there's something of a "hangover" effect leaving Coors
I remember someone writing about how Holliday’s road numbers increased with every consecutive game he played on the road. So he was pretty bad in his first couple games on the road, but after that would improve in his third and fourth games away. It does make some sense. If breaking balls don’t break and certain swings only produce positive results at Coors, there should be an adjustment needed to remain productive away. I think he’s somewhere between. WAR and the “batting” section on fangraphs are both park adjusted, so those values are probably pretty accurate and put him safely into superstar territory.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Also, the park factor for Coors is significant, but it's no longer otherworldly
the way it was when the stadium first opened.
Off the top of my head the park factors during Holliday’s stint at Coors ranged from 115 down to 108 depending on the year.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh
According to Heyman via Cerrone, the Mets “feel” that Bay is as good a defensive outfielder as Holliday. Pfft, who needs objective data, Omar has feelings. Either that or the reasoning must be something like:
The numbers say Holliday is good
The numbers say Bay is bad
Holliday made an embarrassing screw-up on national television
Thus, Bay=Holliday.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 10, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions
Hey what do you expect ?
This is the same group that thought = Ollie Perez > any other available pitcher
you know what I'm sayin' ?
Did Wolf sign before or after Perez?
I remember them saying they preferred Perez to Wolf, and possibly to Lowe, but I can’t remember if Wolf was still on the market after Lowe signed.
After.
Perez went on 2/3. Wolf re-signed with LA two days later.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 10, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
At least
We didn’t sign Jason kendell. Or sign Brandon Lyon to 3/15. If you ignore the fact that we’ve squandered one of the best/most cost efficient cores in baseball, it could be worse.
That's true.
I could have eaten very bad fish at lunch, inadvertently sent an off-color joke e-mail to the entire office, and then accidentally stabbed a coworker.
So… yeah, things are looking comparatively up.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 10, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
When Holliday took one in the nuts...
… I had a two-part reaction:
1) (Immediate) “I wonder if this drops his price. Maybe some dumb teams will think this means he’s not worth their time, period.”
2) “Omar will be one of those guys. Dammit.”
Le sigh.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 10, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
devil's advocate
The Mets have a scouting department, made up of professionals who literally get paid to watch baseball players and determine how good their swing is, how good their range is, how good their arm is, etc.
If the Mets aren’t grossly incompetent (I know, that’s a stretch), they’ve had these scouts watching Bay and Holliday for months, maybe even years. They’re not just fans who see other teams players 3, 4 times a year and make snap judgments based on fly balls hitting a guy in the nuts. Maybe they have their own set of data from their scouts that tells them that Bay really is a better fielder than Holliday.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
:(
misappropriate use of major league scouting. I’ll buy (and think) that the numbers underrate Bay but NEVER that he’s better than Holliday.
You just hate him cause he's Canadian
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 3:32 AM EST up reply actions
on a personal level
I agree. I’m just offering a rationale for how the Mets could actually have done a legitimate amount of homework and come up with a different conclusion.
Of course, it’s also possible that Omar watched the NLDS and said “holy crap that guy that got hit in the nuts sucks in the field. Wait, that’s Matt Holliday! Cross him off the checklist.” Who knows.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
I have a feeling Bay is not going to sign for 4/65
If so, the question is how much higher the Mets go
If we go higher than that
than we are even stupider than I thought.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
When Omar wants to get things done
anything is possible. I’m really praying that Bay thinks he’s worth like 4/70 and turns this down.
Totally unrelated
But it’s going to REALLY suck when we have to resign Reyes and Wright to more market priced contracts. If we can’t build a team with a 150 million dollar payroll paying them peanuts what are we going to do in 2012 and beyond?
pray to God
Murphy, Ike, FMart, and Tejada turn into superstars
by Mike Clemente on Dec 10, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
The usual 'Mets trading Reyes' blabber was on WFAN and SNY today, I overheard...Oy Vey...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
According to the Newark Star Ledger,
scouts told the Mets front office Bay is a better fielder than Holliday.
Who the hell are these scouts and why do they have jobs?
does it matter to anyone
if Holli turned out to be a juicer? Assuming a half season suspension, Manny special. Just wondering.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
he'd still have the same worth as Bay.
Like, really.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
cmon
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 10, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
and what if Bay's a juicer
that’s a silly thing to worry about, honestly. Anyone can be a juicer these days.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Holliday is twice as valuable as Bay
Bay’s WAR 2005 on: 6.4, 5.5, 0.1, 2.9, 3.5
Holliday, 2005 on: 3.3, 4.4, 7.9, 6.2, 5.7
Bay’s not the same player he was through 2006 (injury in 2007?!). If you do a simple 321 and regression going forward, and even favor Bay by discounting his 2007, Holliday is literally twice as valuable.
mtzblog twitter feature out of control
who cares about the beat reporters airline experiences? not even their families.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
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