Cincy Wants a Return
So like many other fans I have been wondering if Harang or Arroyo are really available this offseason. I went looking on various blogs (skip Reds blogs, they all live in the past) and found very little. The Cincinnati Enquirer did have this though:
The Reds are trying to keep their payroll as last year’s level of $73.5 million. They are already close to that point.
Another rumor had Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo available. Jocketty said the Reds have heard from clubs on veteran pitchers.
"A little bit," Jocketty said, "not a lot."
His preference is keep them.
"A lot of clubs are asking because we have a lot of pitching depth," he said, "both starters and relievers. It’s a strength. I’d like to keep a strength."
Harang makes $12.5 million next season; Arroyo $11 million. The thought is the Reds may want to add budget flexibility by moving one of them. But Jocketty sounds like he’ll try to keep them.
"If I can make it work and keep everybody, we’d be better off," he said. "But we’ll see."
That is not say neither will be traded. But the offers so far have been underwhelming.
"Nobody’s really wowed us with deals yet," he said.
"Saying that though, if the Mets offer us a bag of balls and a stick of big league chew they can have who they want."
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2009/12/08/meetings-day-ii-part-iii/
Interesting story. The last line is made up.
So are the Reds really strapped for payroll and need to trade a starter? Or do they want to keep what they have? Is this story a way for the Jocketty to alert other teams of his need for a starter?
I think Maine for Arroyo might work for both teams.
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My impression is the Reds are looking to move at least one,
but they’re not going to come out and say “we’d like to make a salary dump, and throw in a few mil if you play hard to get…”
With the buyout each has they’re each in the neighborhood of $12.5-$13 million for 2010. I can’t see the Reds getting much on top of salary relief. Neither is worth the $16-16.5 range that Lackey or Burnett live in, but I’d rather have either one of Arroyo or Harang than risk $10m per year for too many years for Pineiro.
Who do we have to trade, that they'd be interested in?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions
Thats the rub
Who do they want that we will actually part with?
by scott from peekskill on Dec 11, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
Given their salaries
I imagine a C prospect would do it. They’re not cheap, so it’s hard for me to imagine you’d have to give up a B prospect (worth around $3-3.5m) in addition to taking on their salaries…
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
Jocketty came out and said that he would want to trade Harang more than Arroyo. I would see if Holt, Tejada and Gee would do the trick.
I wouldn't
with their salary/major financil issues, and the fact that Jocketty apparently way underrates Harang if he would rather move him than Arroyo, I don’t think it should cost near that much if we’re taking n the full salary.
Gina,
What deal would you offer? I thought they needed some quality. They need pitching and a ss/2nd base for the future.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 12, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Its just that no one's going to offer them nearly that much
And the value you get in return doesn’t justify giving up that kind of talent. Its a tough situation for them, I think there’s a good chance neither gets traded. If they do get traded Cincy’s either going to have to eat some salary if they want a prospect return like this, or they’re going to have to take a really mediocre return.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 12, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't give up all three of them. Two, maybe. Maybe one, with two lesser prospects thrown in.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Holt probably isn’t going to be ML sarter. Gee, I am not sure on.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 11, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
What?
You’re pretty sure that Brad Holt isn’t going to be a ML starter, but Dillon Gee, the guy who just had reconstructive surgery, you’re split on?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yeah this
And Holt will almost certainly be a major league reliever if he doesn’t become a starter. No such guarantees with Gee. Holt has the physicality to be a starter, he has a major league fastball and his stuff holds up well deep into his starts, he just needs to lengthen the repertoire.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Gee i said i am not sure on.
Don;t have enough background
by scott from peekskill on Dec 12, 2009 4:01 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty typical #5 type profile
Underwhelming fastball, a couple decent secondary pitches that he commands well.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 12, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
I'd help Jocketty save face and throw in a couple of C or D prospects, but that's about it.
Isn’t Harang getting about $14m if you include his 2011 buyout? He’s not John Lackey, or AJ Burnett, therefore he’s not in the $16.5m neighborhood, and it’s not close. I’d explore getting some salary relief from the Reds instead of offering real prospects.
Look at what the O’s gave up for Millwood. A nothing-special reliever, iirc, and $3m in salary relief on Millwood’s $12m contract.
Higher upside, less durable.
Though Harang hasn’t had a season as good as Millwood’s 2009 since 2007.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 12, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
According to what?
fangraphs FIP & XFIP, and statcorners tra all say Harang was better even last year.
Their raw stats weren't that far apart and Millwood pitched a lot more
I also may value durability a little more than you, and Harang’s has been on the decline since 2007. It’s reasonable to project Harang to pitch 140 innings in 2010 while Millwood is likely to throw over 190. That’s a big difference.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 13, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions
Dusty has done some questionable moves
like having him pitch emergency extra innings between starts. I forget the exact details, but it didn’t seem bright. I’d bet he’d be durable if used normally.
no way MAINE for Arroyo
why make that deal? Maine is decent , but not healthy…..he makes say 3.3 and
arroyo makes 11 mill….that difference in money $$$ can be better utilized…..for that much you could sign M. Gonzalez or someone like that for a year or more…. besides arroyo is really just average, and throws a real good start once a month…what good is that??? Harang is better but he’s on the decline, and fast…..plus he makes more than
arroyo…..cincny would have to kick at least 5-6 million….in any deal for those guys….
Cinncy is going to kick in exactly
$0 million dollars. If the rumors and not Jocketty are correct, which they might be, then the Reds want to move as much payroll as possible. The yare not kicking in a penny on payroll.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 12, 2009 4:03 AM EST up reply actions
A good trade involving Cincy would center around Pelfrey and Homer Bailey. I think Pelfrey is regressing as a Met, and Bailey needs a change of scenery as well. Plus Bailey has some swagger, which the Mets could use instead of a non-exciting guy like Pelfrey.
I don't tink that would be a good trade for us
when you really look at it, we pretty much have Johan, who isn’t even guaranteed to be a 4 WAR pitcher, Pelfrey, who’s hovering around league average, and league average isn’t pretty, and then a whole bunch of, excuse my french, shit, behind them. We can’t really afford to move one of only two non massive question mark, as middling as he may be, for a prospect.
Bailey's not even a prospect...
He’s a guy who has pitched about a season’s worth of innings with a 6.03 tRA in his career.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 13, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
He pitched pretty well toward the end of last year
I’d say there is little chance that the Reds trade him so…
yes it would
I do not see Pelfrey getting any better- and Citi is a pitcher’s park. I think Bailey is much better. An average guy like Pelfrey should at least be able to give us 200-215 innings. Any less than that is not OK, when Dessens & co. have to come into the game in the 5th. Bailey is more of a driven guy, who will want innings. Pelfrey does not know the meaning of a complete game. Bailey will give you 200 innings.
Only one of Pelfrey and Bailey has actually thrown 200 innings in the Majors
and it’s not Bailey
"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"
Hey I'm pretty driven....
Do you think the Mets will let me throw 200 innings? I know what a complete game is too!
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 13, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
"Pelfrey['s not] getting any better"
That’s debatable. He has another year of full experience in him, and is a year older, so that is what it is. He’ll have Jose Reyes at shortstop next season, though, which gives him an improved defense behind him, as opposed to most of last season, making his groundballs that much more likely to be caught, so…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
REALITY
Lackey and Cam prefer chowder; If I’m Holliday, I’d love St.Louie; Bay would excel in a non-pressure shot, like Seattle. The Mets should stick to signing guys in my plan ( Blalock, Ankiel, Capps ). Save some cash for next year, when some of the competition will be capped out. Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, guys that could be great Mets, will be available. Invest the cash in the draft and the system.
Beckett will likely get extended
And I just don’t think there’s any way jayson werth is ever a met.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
We'd stage a revolt, if that did somehow materialize.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 17, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

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