Realistic (but good enough?) Offseason

by supermets on Dec 10, 2009 10:48 PM EST

C: Molina+Blanco: 2.5 WAR, $7.5M

1B: Delgado: 2.3 WAR, $5M

2B: Hudson: 2.4 WAR, $6M ($9M including 1/2 of Castillo)

SS: Reyes: 5.0 WAR, $9.5M

3B: Wright: 5.5 WAR, $10M

LF: Bay: 3.4 WAR, $16M

CF: Beltran: 5.5 WAR, $20M

RF: Francoeur: .5 WAR, $4M

OF: Pagan: 1.5 WAR, $1M

UT: Tatis: 1.0 WAR, $2M

MI: Cora: .4 WAR, $2M

PH: Murphy: .8 WAR, $.5M

S1: Santana: 4.9 WAR, $21M

S2: Pineiro: 3.5 WAR, $9M

S3: Pelfrey: 3.2 WAR, $.5M

S4: Maine: 1.3 WAR, $3M

S5: Perez: 1.0 WAR, $12M

CL: Rodriguez: 1.3 WAR, $12M

SU: Parnell: .6 WAR, $.5M

SU: Feliciano: .7 WAR, $2M

MR: Green: .5 WAR, $.5M

MR: Nieve: .4 WAR, $.5M

MR: Putz: .7 WAR, $2M

MR: Stokes: 0 WAR, $.5M

$151M, 47.9 WAR, 95 Wins

I put this together pretty quickly without making comments for each spot, but I think it makes a good point. While this probably isn't as good as a plan as most of the AAOPs, it is realistic, and I think this roster could succeed. Most of all, I could see Omar making these moves:

Sign Molina 1/6(hopefully, although it will probably end up at 2/12).

Sign Delgado 1/5.

Trade Castillo while paying half and Sign Hudson 2/12.

Sign Bay ~4/64.

Sign Piniero 3/27 (maybe even less).

I think that I'm being pretty optimistic with the WARs for some players, so you can take off a couple wins, and we probably end up back at 88-91 like the '07 and '08. Maybe that will be enough for the playoffs. Plus, I really like this lineup, even if it does have Molina and Francoeur(with hopefully Pagan becoming the RF at some point, but for it to be realistic Frenchy has to be there) in it.

Reyes/Hudson/Wright/Beltran/Bay/Delgado/Molina/Francoeur/Pitcher

The 1-6 is actually really good.

Poll

Forget about your plan; if this was our team on Opening Day, how optimistic would you be about the upcoming season?

Playoffs

4 votes

We'll be in the WC race, maybe even the division

22 votes

84-87 wins, but Playoffs are unlikely

9 votes

Around .500

7 votes

Below .500

2 votes

44 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Comments

Castillo?

Trade to whom?

by scott from peekskill on Dec 10, 2009 11:02 PM EST reply actions

Cubs?

I didn’t really think about it but it seems like the Mets really want to get rid of Castillo and they’re not gonna trade him for someone like Bradley.

I didn’t mention it in the post (I’ll edit now), but that $151M includes $3M of Castillo’s salary.

by supermets on Dec 10, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

maybe TAMPA BAY

TRADE CASTILLO and r. TEJADA to the CUBS, the Cubs send FONTENOT and BRADLEY
plus six (6) million to TAMPA, Tampa sends CARLOS PENA and a couple minor leaguers
to the METS, the METS send Dillon GEE and another minor leaguer plus three (3) million
to TAMPA……this should do it…everybody happy…..

by 1969met on Dec 11, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

haha, what?

That’s the most random trade I’ve ever seen. Why would the Rays need Mike Fontenot, exactly?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 12, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

Omar dealing with Andrew Freidman?

Frediman will somehow get David Wright in the trade.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Dec 13, 2009 7:04 AM EST up reply actions

David Wright?

I think him just getting Wright might be the best case scenaro. I imagine he’d get David Wright, Reyes and somehow end up entitled to half our revenue for the next ten years.

by Gina on Dec 13, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

And the rights to Sterling Equities

"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"

by Evan_S on Dec 13, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

So your significant additions are Bay, Piniero, and Hudson.

Delgado is a mistake, imo. We’ve paid him $56 million for two very good years, and two lost years. That’s way, way too much. Time to cut the cord.

Bay is vastly overrated. He’ll bring in 10 wins or less over the next four years. Piniero comes with real risks and is looking for a four year deal. Hudson is too many dollars and too many years (4/32 is about what he’ll get). This is the kind of offseason that might squeak you into the playoffs in 2010, but you start to get killed in the following years.

by SeanSchirmer on Dec 10, 2009 11:26 PM EST reply actions

I agree on Bay. I'd much rather have Holliday.

I’d much rather have Holliday. Or Cameron (like I had in my AAOP). But Cameron’s not happening, and I think this is a realistic plan.

And NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY Hudson get 4/32. Who will even come close to that? He’ll get 2 years, maybe 3. Max of 3/24, but that would suprise me a lot.

by supermets on Dec 10, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions

i think some of you underestimate the mets too much

i know this team has let us down an awful lot the past couple years, but with a lineup that has beltran, wright, reyes, bay, and to some extent delgado, you have to be pretty happy with that. that’s better than most of the teams in the NL

by Rey-O on Dec 10, 2009 11:36 PM EST reply actions

Like I say almost everywhere now, it's not worth it to trade Castillo.

Signing Hudson, and picking up Castillo’s contract, we’re not getting a significant upgrade, and we’d be paying 50% more than we are already, more or less.

And Delgado, I don’t know what you can count on from him. We need to see him in his rehab winterball. He might recover, like A-Rod, or he might not. And we all know what a bad Delgado is like.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions

I still think on a one year flyer he's not a bad option

on the assumption that the Mets aren’t looking to do anything at first right now, Delgado presents a definite upgrade over Murphy if he’s healthy, and if he’s not, worst case scenario is you use Murph, which is what the Mets are gonna do anyway.

Bill James projects Delgado at .263/.361/.494 with 23 HRs. I know James’ projections are usually a little optimistic, but even if you take a little off of that, it’s still better than what Murphy will give you.

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Dec 11, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions

85ish wins

I don’t think we can count on much of anything next year with basically the same pitching staff.

by Brittannia on Dec 10, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions

On another note

What does everyone think of Pelfrey? I’m really optimistic on him, and I think there’s a good chance he beats my 3.2 WAR projection. On Fangraphs the Fans have him at 3.8 WAR with a 3.81 WHIP. That is swayed by “Team” fans, who are much higher on him than “Other” fans, FWIW.

by supermets on Dec 10, 2009 11:41 PM EST reply actions

Reyes will be back, so there will be better defense behind him. That'll make him somewhat more effective.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 10, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

3.81 FIP, Btw

not WHIP

by supermets on Dec 10, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions

that would be atrocious

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 10, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

delgadNO

also, the latest rumor is the Mets have no interest Piniero

by Sam Page on Dec 11, 2009 12:11 AM EST reply actions

hoho, clever

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 11, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

I like it, sort of.

I do prefer Holliday, but Bay is acceptable, and Boras is a PITA, so I can understand if they prefer to just sign Bay if they can do it right now at a reasonable price.

Otherwise, this looks a lot like what I’m pretty much hoping for at this point, even if it isn’t that great. I don’t want any long term deals for most of these guys, so maybe I’d end up without Hudson. If you are dumping Castillo though, I actually like the idea of swapping for Pierre (if it’s salary neutral) to fill the last spot on that bench. With that starting outfield, I would want two good runners/defenders backing up.

And I think that lineup is actually good 1-7. Molina is a low OBP guy, but he scores men on base at nearly the same rate as Wright. I like that in the 7 or 8 spot ahead of the pitcher.

by acerimusdux on Dec 11, 2009 12:12 AM EST reply actions

ugly

The fact that you had the names Piniero, Molina and Tatis (in order-dislike) on the team makes me sick. Piniero is the worst pitcher in baseball earning over 1mil per year. Molina is due for that 6HR,34RBI, .215 year (where’s Ron Hodges when you need him?), and the more you pay Tatis, the less you get. I can’t wait to see some prospects like Nieuwenhuis on the team, but Omar will probably trade him for Elmer Dessens’ uncle and an Offerman to be named later.

by myrick4gm on Dec 13, 2009 4:12 AM EST reply actions