Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?
by James Kannengieser on Dec 11, 2009 8:30 AM EST
59 comments
The first Winter Meetings of the Twitter era is now complete - thank goodness.
Meet the Mets
The big news of the day, as first reported by Mike Francesa, was the Mets' offer to Jason Bay in the neighborhood of four years, $65 million. If he accepted it would probably be an overpay but not a terrible contract for a team with the Mets' resources. Anything much higher than the initial offer would be bad news. Matt Holliday is obviously preferable but it would be nice to have a slugging corner outfielder for a change. The nightmare scenario would be paying Bay $16-17 million per season, then watching Holliday sign for $18-19 million. I wonder if people would continue saying the Alex Cora and Henry Blanco signings wouldn't hinder the Mets this offseason?
One bizarre aspect of the Bay offer is the revelation that the Mets think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday. That's almost certainly not true. Bay probably isn't as bad as UZR suggests the last couple seasons but I don't think an argument can be made that he's anything better than below average.
Mets Fever goes into great detail extolling the intangible virtues of Bengie Molina and endorses a two year, $12 million contract. This topic has been beaten into the ground but I say again: Bengie Molina is not worth anything more than a one year deal for very small money. Yes, he caught the 2002 World Champion Angels. That was a long time ago. I think Tim Lincecum would have won the last two Cy Youngs without Bengie. Three measures of catcher defense (Driveline Mechanics, Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus) all rated Molina as below average in 2009. He's just not very good at anything except swinging at every pitch within a ten foot radius of home plate.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets' Rule 5 Draft activity left many people scratching their heads. Additionally, in a decent move, they signed minor league pitcher Clint Everts.
Joe Janish at Mets Today offers up a recap of the Winter Meetings' last day.
Josh Thole is leaving his Venezuela Winter League team after dominating over the last several weeks. He hopes to compete for a spot on the Opening Day Roster.
Rivers McCown fires up the Manny Ramirez what-if machine.
Around the NL East
Talking Chop reviews the Braves Winter Meetings activity.
FishStripes looks at the Marlins Rule 5 pick.
The Fightins' notes a weird compliment of Placido Polanco by Jim Leyland.
Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies and Angels are the leaders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.
Around MLB
The Royals released Mike Jacobs just before the Rule 5 Draft.
The Red Sox agreed to send Mike Lowell to the Rangers, with the Red Sox picking up some of his salary.
MLBTradeRumors provides a massive recap of the Winter Meetings.
Off topic - Jonah Keri writes a thoughtful post about pickup basketball.
Off topic 2 - that bastion of great journalism, the Daily News, produces another nonsensical sports column.
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That Tiger Woods column is classic.
Shorter: “Tim Finchem should ban Tiger Woods from playing professional golf, not because he cheated on his wife, but because of all this other stuff that we haven’t seen yet and is rumoured to exist.”
The Daily News really is just . . . great.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 11, 2009 8:40 AM EST reply actions
Hank Gola's next column
Wilt Chamberlain should be removed from the basketball hall of fame and have all of his records removed from the books.
The Daily News:
Official sports section of the World Weekly News.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Holliday $18 - 19 million
I would be suprised if he didn’t get $20 million per.
ALso has anyone heard any more news on the rule 5 debacle?
Like is there more to it, or do we really just want to pick up 150,000 that badly?
That move actually makes a lot of sense to me
Giving up a spot on your major league roster for somebody who’s probably going to be a scrub anyway isn’t trivial. There’s no reason to not flip the pick for a little bit of extra cash if they weren’t going to use it anyway.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
the issue is there were guys out there who certainly had higher upside than a lot of the guys currently on our 40 man roster
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 11, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
In order to retain the player
he has to be on the 25 man roster for a whole year.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Yeah but we're talking about during spring training I believe
I think he means you can, at worse, see what they give you during spring training.
yeah sorry for the confusion.
If they suck the investment lost is pretty small when you compare it to… say… 2 million dollars for alex cora. I can’t see any logic in a team with a million holes in it not taking a flier on a few incredibly cheap gambles. Its like paying penny slots, you’re not likely to lose much, and every once in a while you get a lucky spin and go home with some extra money in your pocket.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 11, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
I guess I just don’t like slot machines. I’m more of a poker guy.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
me too, its the only gambling that has any skill involved
and to a lesser extent blackjack (but dont let them catch you using those “skills” or they get pretty pissed). I’m not much of a gambler though.in general because the only kind of luck i ever seem to have is the bad variety
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 11, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
I'm more of a poker player too
but in this case I’m not sure how this would relate more to slot machines. If anything you’re spending 50,000 for the chance to save 1.1 million-1.6 million, since they seem to consider 2 million the league minimum imagine any cheap back end of the roster guys wed sign will be between 1.5 million-2 million vs only paying these guys league min.
So if you want to look at it terms of poker you’d only have to have a like 3.25 percent chance of them working out, since you’re pot odds would be something like 50,000 for a chance to “win” 1.1-1.6 million.
Or a 3.25% chance of them working out
for the investment to be worth it.
If you're going to consider "pot odds"
you have to consider whatever money that the Dodgers sent them for the pick. If that’s say 150k, then you’re talking about needing a ~10% chance of the pick working out to get your investment back.
I do think that it’s close, and debatable (and an interesting debate at that). I wouldn’t have a problem with the Mets taking a chance on a player. I just think that with so many things to criticize the FO for, this wouldn’t be very high on my list.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
I won't broil the FO for this either.
It comes down to, who in the draft has an odds-on possibility of paying off on a pick, and at the moment I can’t name who that would be.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 12, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
Is it really a debacle?
I mean I’m a big fan of the Rule 5 draft but the amount of players that actually stick with the club is very low. Maybe the Mets scouts/analysis just didn’t think any player was worth it so they earned some goodwill from the Dodgers as well as made a couple of bucks rather than drafting no one. I mean I’m not really a fan of any of the players drafted after the Mets pick except that there is a good assortment of names in Robert Cassevah, Zechry Zinicola, Chuck Lofgren and Michael Parisi. Really the only pick I somewhat liked was Armando Zerpa (LHP) but he was dealing with injuries two year ago and really only has 45 someodd innings of AA where he has been impressive.
So, while I understand that logic of, “hey the Mets might of well have drafted someone because you never know,” I can also see the logic of “we don’t really like anyone, so let’s make a little cash.” Though I might be biased based on being an auditor.
Also, I don’t consider it being cheap, but just figuring the guaranteed money is worth more than the chance of success. For example, let’s say that the Mets believe that based on scouting and such that best case scenario a RP they can draft at their pick yields 1 WAR or roughly $4.5 million in value. After salary and the fee, this $4.5 turns into a roughly $4.1 surplus. Now say the Mets believe that this best case scenario has a 3% chance of coming to fruition, this would make the value $.123 thus the Mets concluded that they should just take the guaranteed $.15. Obviously, the latter is completely fabricated but it was more of a personal thought exercise to get me through till lunch, so apologies all around.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
Your argument
would be a good one if I was confident that the Mets’ FO understands the concept of Expected Value.
by englishgrey on Dec 11, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
the sad part is this suggests that that $.027 really makes a difference to the Mets
at least enough so that they’re not willing to take a chance on that decent upside.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 11, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah that's my problem
We have a ton of holes too many to fill just through free agency IMO, and we should have a ton of money, there’s no reason not to take flyers on a few guys just to see what sticks, unless they’re having major financial problems which by all accounts they’re not.
But who would you wanted to take a flier on?
Like I mentioned, I didn’t really see any player taken that really have a chance to stick with the Mets.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
My problem is that they didn't even try.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
But how do you know that?
I’m sure they did scouting and analysis and determined that players like Cassevah and Zinicola were not worth a roster spot so instead of just passing like Atlanta or Boston, they made some money.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
How many spots on the 40-man roster do we still have open?
As I understand it, as evidenced by last season, and the season before, you pick as many players as you want, until you have a 40-man roster. Obviously, the majority of these guys aren’t that great, and aren’t going to stick. I don’t begrudge anyone in the front office on that part. My problem is that, we had/have slots in the roster open, and we didn’t bother. There certainly might not be anyone great out there, but the front office didn’t even try- actually I take that back. There is one great guy out there who was available, by the name of Disco. That aside…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Just some of the guys who went after our pick
Bobby Cassevah
David Herndon
Kanekoa Texeira
all at least have a chance to stick as cheap bullpen options, with so many other holes that need filling why not at least take fliers on these guys. There were also some players that went before our pick, and since the deal was prearranged it’s not like they knew they were going to be gone
Ben Snyder
Edgar Osuna
Hector Ambriz
maybe none of them would have worked out but for 50,000 dollar isnt it at least worth giving them a shot in spring training rather than dropping 1-2 million on back end of the bullpen guys?
Believe me,
I understand your point that since the Mets have so much money, why not just throw cake at the wall to see what sticks. But to me, and this is just a difference of opinion, I can’t see the list of players selected after the Mets sticking in the majors over the course of a season for hopefully a playoff contender.
Additionally, it’s not like the Rule 5 draft is the only source for cheap bullpen arms as I like Clint Everts over any player the Mets could have drafted and there will still be plenty of minor league deals/invites that can hopefully yeild another Ricky Bottalico/Darren Oliver.
Again, I understand your point but I just don’t consider this a bad thing or as Brooklyn said “an example of the Mets not even trying” but I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
bye bye
Adam Bostick :( signed with Royals
by RIPShea on Dec 11, 2009 12:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yay!
Vesting option for Bengie!! sigh
by RIPShea on Dec 11, 2009 12:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Well, Cerrone cites Buster...
…but the link goes to a Gammons tribute, so Idk…
http://www.metsblog.com/2009/12/11/buzz-molinas-offer-has-a-vesting-option/
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
Bay Vs Holliday
Jeff Zachowski takes a look at the FBs Bay and Holliday hit at their home ballparks last year and maps them to Citi Field:
http://www.hotstovenewyork.com/2009/12/11/bay-over-holliday-not-so-fast/
oh boy
The mets need to release their statistical analysis that concludes bay’s bat fits better in citi.
They just consistently seem wrong. I don’t know why I’m amazed. But every time I am.
by Mike Clemente on Dec 11, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
that article is falwed
on top of that, its also flawed.
They put the home hit charts of both players, but bay plays with the green monster… if you look at the image, you can basically see the green monster on bays hits. There is a straight line the cuts right across left field.
but i would still rather have holiday.
You know why the Mets think Bay is better than Holliday?
Omar looked at UZR, and thought that the lower runs you get the better, like ER and ERA. Omar saw Bay was negative, so that means he’s like awesome.
When Omar went to Baumer to confirm this, he was out of the office, so Omar asked this guy who he thought was Baumer’s assistant, but was actually the janitor. He said lower runs allowed is better.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 11, 2009 3:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Stuff
Oh, good. Thole didn’t get kidnapped. That’s a relief.
Mike Jacobs is available. He’d be an intriguing option at first, possibly. He’s a more accomplished first baseman than Murphy. He’s coming off of a not-so-great season, and, overall, isn’t amazing or anything, but…Signing him would give us a “legitimate” first baseman, of the more prototypical mold (a big guy with power). I don’t think we’d be able to get away with a one-year deal, but maybe a two-year deal? That doesn’t necessarily block Davis, and it gives us the ability to possibly trade Jacobs when Davis is ready.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions
I looked at his WAR.
It’s significantly worse than Murphy’s was. You’re right- scratch that thought.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Please have your staff vet your work in the future.
I almost wasted 4.7 seconds looking up Jacobs’ resume at BB-Ref.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 12, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
But he hits home runs! That was all I remembered about him. It's been a while since Mike Jacobs crossed my mind.
God, he’s horrible.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 12, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
When Metsblog commenters say no to Molina
you know it really sucks
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
It's a sad day
when metsblog commenters have surpassed Omar.
we’re doomed.
we're doomed when
This site surpasses Omar.
And that’s not happening for a while. They all want Molina because of RBIZZZZZZZZ!!!!! And because he won in 2002.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 11, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
omg that's some awful stuff
I’ve never been to that site before, and the first post I see is this one
“I’m not knocking advanced metrics, but I do find fault with them when they are used to make unfair comparisons.
You want to compare Jason Bay than compare him to other leftfielders like Adam Dunn, Hideki Matsui or last seasons Gary Sheffield. Don’t compare him to a Gold Glove centerfielder and expect me to drop my jaw and exclaim, "Wow, you’re right, Cameron is a thousand times better than Bay in the field."
And since when do we use one position’s UZR to compare a player at another position? Why don’t we compare Cameron to David Wright while we’re at it, after all didn’t UZR claim he was among the worst third basemen in the league?"
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
That makes...no sense.
Very little, anyway.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 12, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
but if metsblog commenters say no to Moliona
wouldnt that mean that saying yes to Moliona would be the right thing to do?
My head is confused.
is Moliona like a deli meat or something?
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
And to make matters worse
According to the metsblog post, apparently the Bay contract offer was heavily backloaded, so not only would he not be reaching the 16 million value in the last years, he’d probably be unmoveable and making way more than 16 million. Why do we keep backloading contracts?? Other, smarter, big market teams realize it makes more sense to front-load them.
Bostick will always be a mystery
There’s something really strange about how he was treated. Why was this guy never called up? He clearly had the best numbers of any lefty reliever in their system above AA. Better than Misch and Takahashi. It’s like he was blackballed. Watch him have a solid year in KC.
This Clint Everts guy does have some nice career numbers and he’s a former 1st rounder. Anyone have any information on what kind of stuff he throws? I bet he’s better than Elmer Dessens.
It's especially weird when you consider what we traded for him
and that he was a decent prospect at one point for the Marlins. But what was the purpose of an already questionable the trade if we apparently didn’t have any intentions of ever giving him at least a shot.
You'd think, when he was doing good, that Omar would want to call him up, and show that we got SOMETHING from the Lindstrom deal.
Especially when Lindstrom was injured and somewhat ineffective last season. While not saying it out loud, he could have gotten a lot of “respect” or whatever back, silently saying, by playing an effective Bostick, “See! Look, I knew what I was doing when I traded Linstrom, you know. Here’s Bostick doing well for us here, with, um, Linstrom struggling there. I, you know, made, uh, the right move.”
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
Everts got drafted by Omar
back in ‘02. You could say this is another one of Omar’s guys, but might actually be good.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 11, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
That "What-if" article about Manny is pretty good
This line jumped out at me (originally a Bill James quote): "Bad organizations will tend to project their weaknesses on their good players, and ultimately will dwell not on what the player can do, but on what he can’t."
As soon as I read that I thought of Matt Holliday, and the Mets “evaluations” that Bay’s spray chart is a better fit for Citi Field and they think Bay’s a better fielder. It seems to me (and hopefully I’m wrong) that this all has less to do with Bay and more to do with the Mets projecting weaknesses onto the best player on the market and talking themselves into the next best guy who’s nowhere near as good.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
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