Midnight Poll: Jason Bay vs. Mike Cameron
by James Kannengieser on Dec 11, 2009 12:00 AM EST
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PrintYears and dollar amounts are estimates of what it might take to sign each player.
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Cameron
Dump Frenchy and trade for Crawford.
Cameron
The one-year deal lets us pick and choose from next year’s FA market, as well as engage in trade all through the year, and next winter.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 12:07 AM EST reply actions
Re-injury to Jeff Franceour???? Career threatening?????
I can’t find anything on the internet on this, but a Phillies fan friend told me tonight — at a dinner (Capital Grille) he and other Phillies fan friends were treated to because of a bet with Philadelphia Mets fans (i.e me) for the better regular season record in ‘09 — that there was a problem with Jeff Franceour’s injured hand; that it had to be operated on AGAIN; and that he next season is in jeopardy and maybe his career.
Anybody know anything about this?
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
because he played throught the injury
that had to transplant some ligament from his wrist. He’ll be 100% in a month
I feel really guilty
but when first read it my first reaction was relief that they couldn’t lock him into rf for the next ten years…
but then I instantly felt awful for him.
Wow wow wow
This has a clear, no brainer answer…and Cameron’s LOSING?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Well, it's clear that those without brains are leaning towards Bay.
just saying
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, echo chamber time
if you disagree you have no brain!
great.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 11, 2009 2:28 AM EST up reply actions
why do you hate america?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 11, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
He's in cahoots with Omar in trying to subvert American culture by enlisting all of those gosh darn Latinos onto the team.
Especially those from Puerto Rico. They’re about as American as, say…apple pie made with peaches instead of apples.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Everyone knows that Latinos are "character guys".
Brown is the new white!
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I would say it's a no-brainer...
Let me put it this way: Would you rather have …
A) a player for 4 years for more money than he has been worth over the past four seasons; or B) a player for 1 year for less money than he has been worth the last few years?
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
gosh, when you put it that way...
how dare you use logic? It’s unAmerican!!!
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
No brainer is exactly how I would describe some of the votes on this poll
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Jason Bay
I trust Keith Law’s assessment of his defense with respect to UZR. He sustained ~.400 wOBA’s in the American League, which is really impressive. I’d rather have the better bat and with first currently in flux, reserve the right to move him there in 2011. (In that case, I’d trade Ike Davis or move him to RF to take full advantage of his arm.)
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Dec 11, 2009 12:24 AM EST reply actions
What did Law say?
I’ll look for it now, but I’d like a link if you have one.
link, please
I would like to feel better about this if possible
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting take...
I still would prefer Cameron.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't say Cameron is better, especially if he is in LF
Bay is a much better hitter, and I don’t think Cameron’s defense makes up the difference.
But 1/11 for Cameron is muchhhhhhhhhhhh better than 4/70 for Bay.
Cameron might be the better player when he's playing CF.
He’s a slightly above average hitter, who’s a solid-to-great CF in any given year. When you move him to LF, you lose 10 runs of hidden positional value. He’d have to make up for that by saving an extra 10 runs of fielding vs. an average LF. There’s no guarantee that this will happen.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Dec 11, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Just to clarify
When I say an extra 10 runs of fielding vs. an average LF, I mean in addition to whatever his CF UZR rating is. So if he’s like +8, he’d have to be +18, or Randy Winn territory.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Dec 11, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
The thing is
The average defensive LF is about 10 runs worse than the average defensive CF. I know it doesn’t appear this way for Cammy, he was below his typical eliteness in his season in RF, but that could just be sample size variation combined with the fact that his zone was overlapping with an equally elite defensive player at the more primary position (Beltran).
This was posted in the Bay thread but I’ll post it here too. Basically, guys are generally about 10 UZR runs better in a corner than they are in CF, so the positional adjustment between the outfield positions gets pretty largely negated. Obviously, it doesn’t work this way for the infield, but the skillset really doesn’t change much from outfield position to outfield position the way it does on the infield.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
Even if you think Bay is better
he’s not so much better that he justifies that much bigger a contract
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Dec 11, 2009 12:35 AM EST reply actions
Jason Bay is an atrocious fielder
who has no earthly business making $17.5 million when he’s 35. Cameron should be comparable to Bay next season, at least in terms of WAR, and leaves us open to trade for a better outfielder, should one become available, or sign Crawford next off season.
"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"
Crawford may not see free agency
He could either resign with the Rays, or get traded, and extended. The Rays were talking to the WhiteSox about Crawford a few days ago.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 11, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
Right, I was asking the people who voted for Bay, wtf?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 11, 2009 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
Whoever they are, they seem to be pretty quiet.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
If the contracts were EVEN, Cameron's the better choice.
With the contracts that lopsided? There’s just no discussion.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I think it is tough to look at this question as either or. The real appeal to Cameron for me is that he opens up money this year to sign Lackey, or some other big money FA. That said, if we’re talking one or the other and it doesn’t play a role on any other signings, then I’d take Bay. I absolutely love Mike Cameron as a player but his value would take a hit if he wasn’t in CF. His UZR (granted, a very small sample size) in 2005 wasn’t in line with his numbers in CF. Without CF he’s not quite the sabermetric beast that he appears to be IMO. Still very good, but I’d prefer the superior hitter in this case.
Lackey/Cameron > Bay/a second tier starter though. I hope Cammy isn’t overlooked this off-season. Any news on what type of contract he is expected to get?
Yeah but ~140 games really isn't enough to infer a whole lot
Especially considering his zone was overlapping with an equally elite defensive player in Beltran, which may have undersold his ability. Now that might be such an issue with Beltran’s knees aching him the way they are. Then again, if Beltran is elite, maybe playing another elite defender in a corner is a bit of a waste of value, maybe it would be just as good to have someone whose true talent level is only above average, as opposed to super-awesome. This would have been an interesting question to study in years when Beltran’s range didn’t look to be at risk, but this year, its probably worth it to stock up on some defensive support for him.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
Get the Reds on the phone
I think the Mets should look into trading for Harang. He was being shopped before the winter meetings.
By the way……….the Phillies are going hard for Halladay, and I am starting to really worry.
if those reports are true about Halladay (i read the phils gm denied)
than that is upsetting
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 11, 2009 2:31 AM EST up reply actions
Halladay doesn't seem plausible for them
I know they have the prospects, but their payroll is stretching and they still have to extend Lee.
i saw Cole Hamels going in one trade rumor
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 11, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
He was 06-09
and Club option for ’10 which for some reason the Phillies decided to pick up.
Mo, you can trade anything of mine.
MLBtraderumors
Roy Halladay Rumors: Thursday
By Mike Axisa [December 10 at 11:36pm CST]
11:36pm: One baseball source tells Tom Verducci of SI.com that the Phillies have been “very aggressive” in their efforts to obtain Halladay. Apparently the Phils are trying to find the players the Blue Jays want, even if that means looking on other teams.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-thursday.html
It does not make sense. The Phillies would be gutting their farm. Additionally, they don’t have the payroll flexibility. The need to pay Lee at the end of the year, Halladay, then have enough cash on hand to pay Utley, Howard, and J-Rolls.
It does not seem logical, yet the rumors continue to proceed with the persistence of a steam roller.
They might not reup Howard.
They have an up-and-down relation with him, last I heard, and they’ve been down on him lately.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Who are the Phillies afraid of?
With Hamels and Lee along with their killer lineup, who are they worried about beating them in the NL playoffs? Giving away the farm for Halladay seems like a waste.
Eh
They’re not like, a 100 win roster. Making your team better is always a good thing. If they think think they’re currently +/-5 wins on 90, adding 5 more wins to that mean is a HUGE addition and worth considerable investment.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 3:47 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't see how they can afford him
If they want to keep their current stars together. I don’t see the point in trading for him if you’re only going to keep him for a year.
Are we sure the Phillies can't sustain a payroll around $150 million?
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 5:11 AM EST up reply actions
Its hard to judge what Lee and Halladay are going to get paid
I assume that the Yankees would be interested in both when they become free agents. Does Halladay sign an extension with the Phils without knowing what the Yankees would be willing to pay him? How interested are the Yankees in Lee?
It might not matter too much since 2011 is going to be a crazy free agent year. So many good players, only so much money to go around.
Well the question is never going to be able how much talent they should give up for Halladay's negotiating rights
Its how much talent they should give up for a year of his service at below market value and the added bonus of exclusive negotiating rights. I’m just saying that for a team that already projects to win about 90 games, the value of every marginal win is much higher than for a team like the Mets, who project closer to .500. Five extra wins isn’t taking the Mets to the playoffs, the value of a marginal win for the Mets doesn’t really take that spike until they add 5-10 wins first, then adding 5 more wins beyond that would have increasing marginal value. With the Phils, 5 more wins would almost guarantee a playoff spot as long as they don’t get ridiculously unlucky, so Halladay even for one year is much more valuable to them, both from a competitive and an economic standpoint. Even if they don’t keep both Lee and Halladay, their short term revenue gains justify a spending a significant cost on Halladay, a justification that doesn’t exist for most other teams. It works for the Angels and Red Sox too, and with Granderson the Yankees may already even be past that mark, though the marginal value for them is still probably considerably higher than a fringe-average team.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
I voted for Cameron
but would rather sign Holliday to 6/100 or something close to that
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Wow.
Was the poll flooded by Phillies, Braves, and Yankees fans?
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Cameron
If you sign Cameron, it leaves open the possibility of shifting Beltran to LF and maybe reducing the wear and tear on his knees. Beltran’s bat plays better in a corner position than Cameron’s and it’s a move that may need to be made shortly anyway.
This will never happen, but at least it gives the organization options.
If moving Beltran to a corner
I’d rather sign a longer term deal with a younger CF. Signing Cameron and putting him in CF doesn’t make a lot of sense for one year.
That's kinda my point
There’s no long term CF solution for us right now. Moving Beltran doesn’t make a lot of sense if there’s nobody decent to replace him for more than 1-2 years.
F!
Martinez is a natural CF and his bat will most likely player better in CF than a corner OF spot. Signing Cameron to center would give Martinez another year of development at AAA and hopefully allow him to take over in 2011.
He's not a plus defensive CF though
Also, it really seems like outfielder values don’t change much position to position. The difference in average defensive level is about 10 runs from CF to RF/LF, and for most guys its just a matter of reps, and not all that many, before they can become equally skilled in a corner to CF. If he develops the skills he does have he’ll be a power hitter who would be maybe -5 in CF and +5 in a corner.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Easier said than done. Besides, this isn't the question, the question is Bay vs. Cameron. If it was Cameron vs. a better, younger CF it would be different, but that player doesn't exactly exist in this market
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Well he DID exist, but the Yankers got him.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
For spare parts no less
Don’t remind me.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 12, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
This is such a loaded question
I don’t understand how Bay is winning. Could someone who voted for him please explain?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions
I think we've had this discussion
because not only is Bay a winner, he’s a winner in a big market.
plus Cameron is a centerfielder
Since I'm against moving Beltran from CF
I voted for Bay 4/70. Mike Cameron doesn’t have a corner outfielder’s bat anymore than Angel Pagan does.
I'm not saying that Mets SHOULD sign Bay to a 4/70 contract
What I’m saying is that signing Mike Cameron to 1/11 is essentialy burning 11 million dollars because Mets already have a player that can provide Cameronesque combination of solid defense and hitting mediocrity for much less money.
On the other hand, while Bay would probably be somewhat overpaid on a 4/70 deal, at least he would make the team clearly better since we don’t currently have a left fielder capable of his offensive production.
I actually think that's a decent argument against Cameron
Even if Pagan doesn’t live up to last year, which I don’t expect him too, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a 2.0 war player in one of the corner spot, so we’d be paying 11 million and at best we’d only get 8 million more in value.
Although on the other hand
With Cameron you could replace Frenchy with Pagan so overall you’d be much better off.
Also the problem is Bay gives a lot of his value back with defense. So while Cameron won’t put up the shiny offensive numbers because as many balls won’t be dropping in left field we’ really wouldn’t be gaining anything from bay’s increased offensive production. Not to mention in 2 years when Bay is declining, remember the guys like 32 already so he’s well past his peak, we’d be playing a dh in left field for 17.5 million dollars. Is that really a better deal than one year of Cameron and looking into a better long-term option for the future?
Yeah this is the issue
I’m not sure we’d be burning $11 million. Having two players of equal value and redundant skillsets is fine if they’re the second and third best outfielders you have. I suppose the argument works if you assume Pagan isn’t going to be the starter under any conditions, that Pagan as a starter=Cameron, and that Pagan as a bench player=some other marginal fourth outfielder that you could spend less than $2 million on. But wouldn’t that argument hold up just as well for Bay? If Cameron=Bay and Pagan=Cameron, then of course, Pagan=Bay. Its just different skillsets that give them their value. But as starters, those skillsets aren’t so leverageable that there would be a difference, and even they were, keeping with the realistic tone, we don’t exactly have a manager who wold be capable of properly leveraging them.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 12, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
In a vacuum, Bay > Cameron Pagan=Cameron
Sorry, I just can’t believe that Bay’s that big of a disaster in LF to completely close that hitting gap between him and Cameron. Only reason why this poll was in my mind somewhat tight is the money/years considerations being heavily tilted in Cameron’s favor.
Also keeping the realistic tone, we should be at peace with the fact that our starters in RF, C and 1B will probably be Jeff Francoeur, Bengie Molina and Daniel Murphy, and that they could even be batted #6-#7-#8 by our manager which could lead to 2010 Mets breaking the MLB record for innings under five pitches. With offense already that crippled (and let’s not forget that Reyes, Beltran and Castillo are all health risks, and Wright’s mysterious power issues) we really need someone who can rake in left, UZR be damned.
That's fair. I thought you were knocking Pagan, rather than making an actual comparison.
But we really only have two players right now who should be playing OF as a starter in the MLB. So getting Cameron would be good regardless.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Bay
Much younger, better hitter, perennial all-star, worth the $$ (it’s not like we’re a small market team and can’t afford to pay him a lot anyway)
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
Point by point
Much Younger
Also much less likely to be worth $17.5 million in any given season than Cameron is to be worth $11 million in 2010.
Better hitter
Cameron’s a better fielder by a wider margin. Bay’s an excellent hitter, and Cameron’s been an above average hitter, even with some age regression he’s an average hitter. Bay’s at best below average defensively, and the number suggest he’s been atrocious the last few years, while Cameron’s been elite.
perennial all-star
Who cares? Aren’t average fans the very seem people who would would undervalue Cameron’s defense and overvalue the effect of his low batting averages and high K totals on his offensive output?
worth the $$ (it’s not like we’re a small market team and can’t afford to pay him a lot anyway)
Maybe true, I don’t think Bay is going to be worth $70 mil over the next 4 years, but he’ll get close. But if Cameron’s going to be worth just as much as Bay next year and Bay is likely to start declining by the end of a four year deal, why spend more money? Even if Cameron’s less valuable, he’s not a full win less valuable, which is the difference in yearly cost and then some here. If every other move the team makes will be exactly the same, speaking strictly in terms of 2010, maybe Bay’s a better option, but if that $5 million extra is spent on anything helpful that you wouldn’t have gotten with Bay, Cameron’s a much better option.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
i like your analysis the last few days
an oasis of reason. But is Mike Cameron really worth $11 million going forward? Wouldn’t he (and every other ballplayer) want more than one year contract, even if he came back to the Mets. The guy is 36 and most people around here seem to see most of his value in his defense. I don’t know about you but i lost a step or two in my late 30s (i rob far fewer hrs). Jason Bay’s not the answer in a perfect world, but these particular incompetent Metz could do a lot worse than Bay (and probably will), who, if one believes the hyperbole around here, must be a blind child molester who has to use a cane in the outfield. I don’t really want either of them.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 11, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Of course he wants more than a one year contract...
Unfortunately for him, no one is going to offer him multiple years.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure Cammy's going to get 2/20 or more
His skills are not declining, yet, and there aren’t any above average CFers this offseason.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I hear you
I’m really not so completely opposed to Bay as maybe I’ve made it seem. It one of the other threads I went off talking about how UZR and Fenway may undervalue his defense a bit. Like I said to Sam the other day, he’s definitely not my first choice, but he’s closer to that than my last. And Cameron’s probably the guy directly ahead of him.
I’m only 24 btw, 25 on Christmas ;). But still, Cameron’s defense has been pretty special the last two years, over 10 UZR in CF. He may regress a bit, but even if that number halves, and Bay’s negative number halves too, an due to adjustment Cameron would only gain five runs moving to a corner, he’d still be 1.5 wins more valuable defensively.
I’ll also say I don’t expect Cameron to come back. I don’t expect the Mets will pursue him, and I don’t expect that if they did, they’d get him without offering substantially more than any other club (as in a few million more, and maybe as you say, multiple years), conditions which would make him much more appealing. I just think the way this poll went down was a little ridiculous. Its a loaded question, there’s really no way that Cameron at 1/11 isn’t a much better deal than Bay at 4/70, and yet somehow the poll’s results don’t reflect that at all.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 11, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't like taking chances with 37 year old outfielders
and huge deals like that… also, we could probably get him for less than 11 million. He’s underrated.
I’d still prefer Bay though. He’s more reliable, and younger
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
With the contract the mets have proposed
You’re looking at paying Bay like 20 million, for his 34/35 seasons, it’s heavily backloaded. So if you don’t like huge deals to 36 year out outfielders I’m not sure how you could like that.
This
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 12, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Jason Bay is not worth 4 yrs 65 million
This is because he has not been worth 65 million the past 4 years. He was worth $20mil in 2005 and 2006 but that was his peak. He never was a good fielder and is declining defensively. Now that he is over 30, it is very unlikely that Bay will improve.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 11, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Much younger?
what, like 4 years younger?
OOOOH, all-stars, let’s sign marquis too while we’re at it
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
ok looked it up, like 6 years younger
but even now, his fielding is exponentially better than Bay’s…so by all accounts, Bay’s the one who’s going to fall off to badness.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
cameron would be a 1-year stopgap solution though
bay could be good for several years out in left
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
Yes,
Bay will be good for several years of horrible defense out in left.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 12, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
we need offense more though
since beltran is in center and frenchy is in right, we can be okay with a poor defensive left fielder
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
No no you can't
It doesn’t work like that, and Frenchy’s a pretty bad defensive outfielder plus Beltran has a knee condition, but even ignoring those things the point it’s a two way street. What Bay adds on offense over Cameron he gives back on defense making them almost equal.
You win by scoring more runs than your opponent, which you can accomplish by either scoring more runs or giving up less runs, a player like Bay is going to increase your runs scored, but he’ll increase your runs given up too. A player like Cameron won’t increase your runs scored by much but he’ll decrease your runs given up almost by the same amount you could expect Bay to increase your runs score. Which is why at the end they’re almost equal in value, just for this year.
And in the future, since Bay is already 31 and well past his peak and beginning his decline, the amount of runs he adds will decrease while the amount of runs he gives up will continue to increase until we’re paying 20 million for a player giving up more runs than he adds.
Also a perfect example of this would be the Seattle Mariners
they’re biggest moves last off-season? Adding Guitterez and Endy. They were 3rd to last in the league in runs scored with only 640, which was actually 30 behind their total for 08, and yet they increased their win total by over 20 games? Why? Because they understood the value of defense, cheaply put together an all-world defensive outfield and gave up the lowest run total in the AL, 625 compared to giving up 811 in 08.
So even though their offensive output fell by 30 runs, because they gave up almost 200 fewer runs their win total still increased by 20 games.
No, they actually need defense more...
Last season they were last in UZR/150.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 12, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
"we need offense more though"
No we don’t. Ignoring defense, in turn, produces more runs for the opponent, negating any potential offense that the club might have.
With a guy/guys out there who handle themselves adequately both offensively and defensively (hday7!), there is no reason to have to choose between either ‘offense’ or ‘defense’.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 12, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Reposting from a dying thread:
Bay’s WAR is surprisingly ordinary, given the spin that he’s one of the top FA’s in this year’s class. 2003 to date:
1.1, 2.2, 6.4, 5.5, 0.1, 2.9, 3.5
Bay peaked around when you’d expect, had the dreadful 2007, and seems to have settled into the 3 WAR neighborhood. He’s more or less the same hitter he was in 2005 and 2006, not quite as good but in the same neighborhood. It’s his now very poor fielding that has halved his value. That and the fact that he played a little CF in Pittsburgh boosted his value a tick.
This contract has an excellent chance of being a serious mistake for the Mets. Even if he repeats his best post-2005/2006 year for each of the next four years he’s barely worth the 4/65 the Mets are reported to have offered Bay. ontract, and if he slips any more on defense, tweaks his knee in May, something, anything, there’s no DH spot in which to hide him. One common, sound yardstick for any contract is, if at best you’ll get what you paid for and at worst you’ll get nothing, that’s a bad contract. That would be like going to Las Vegas and putting down a bet where, if you’re lucky, you get your money back—if you’re unlucky you lose some or all of your wager.
Where’s the percentage in that?
Not to mention even if his hitting is sustained in the last 2 years of the contract
if it’s heavily backloaded would it even be moveable to an AL team?
I don't think that would be prohibitive,
it would just mean picking up some of his salary. That defeats some of the purpose of backloading, but it’s more or less a wash.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 11, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
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