Fantasy Focus: Third Base Rankings Review

1. David Wright (.302/.400/.538 PECOTA) .307/.390/.447: Each infield position had one player who I felt was undoubtedly the most important, and Wright was that guy at third. Unlike the other three, though, Wright slipped a bit in 2009 with his lack of power production. Wright managed to hit just 10 homers and drive in 72 runs on the season, with neither the first or second half giving him much in the way of power, though he did hit .324 prior to the All-Star break (that dropped to .279 afterward). Wright has been known to run into issues with his swing that sap him of his power—we even mentioned that early this season—so it’s tough to say what 2010 will bring. I have a hard time believing anyone could have predicted that drop in production, and that’s coming from someone who thought Wright would lose a lot of value due to Citi Field—he struggled equally outside of New York, so there’s more to it than that.

(subscription required to read the full article, though the Wright excerpt is above the pay-only fold)

about 2 years ago Eric Simon 9 comments 0 recs |

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Is anybody else worried? Because, I know I'm not.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 11, 2009 3:39 PM EST reply actions

I would be

worried if I were you. I would be woried about the health of Reyes, Beltran and Santana as well.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 12, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'd recommend taking caution every time you breathe, then, because of all of those carcinogens in the air.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 12, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

While not terribly worried

I think Zimmerman has overtaken Wright not only as a better overall third baseman, but will also deliver more fantasy points.

by TomDC on Dec 11, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions

I would disagree with that.

Zimmerman’s had ONE better season. Even last year, Wright had comprable offensive numbers to Zimmerman. The only thing Zim does better is field.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 11, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

though he fields so well that it makes their value close

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 11, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

how is

the 33-10 HR and 106-72 RBI difference comparable. Wright put up 2bman numbers at 3b last year. If he duplicates his 2009 season in 2010, his value will drop in a big way.

raygu

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 12, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

but if he duplicates EVERY OTHER SEASON

that’s not a problem. I think you should take a refresher in the meaning of “regression to the mean”.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 12, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure it has been discussed here

though maybe not, I don’t remember seeing anything about it until I got the Bill James Annual, but check out his splits vs. lefties and vs. righties:

vs. RHP: 485 AB, .277/.361/.393/.754, 6 HR, 80.8 AB/HR, 2.33 K/BB
vs LHP: 133 AB, .416/.496/.646/1.142, 4 HR, 33.3 AB/HR, 0.63 K/BB

Compare that to his career splits:

vs. RHP: 2401 AB, .295/.372/.492/.864, 100 HR, 24 AB/HR, 1.82 K/BB
vs LHP: 784 AB, .349/.439/.598/1.037, 40 HR, 19.6 AB/HR, .90 K/BB

He’s always hit lefties better than righties, but this year he actually mashed lefties better than he ever has before. His HR numbers were down a little bit vs. lefties, but it was really his numbers vs. righties that led to the complete power outage. This leads me to believe that it really was something with his stance or his approach at the plate, that he wasn’t able to generate any kind of power vs. righties and wasn’t really seeing the ball against them well at all (hence the increased K rate). His average and OBP aren’t terrible, but he did have a .379 BABIP against righties, so if he doesn’t adjust anything next year he’ll probably be even worse than this (his BABIP against lefties was ridiculously high too, .439, but even if that number went down closer to his career .364 he still would have raked lefties).

I’m still a little worried about David, but I think if he can figure out and correct what he was doing wrong against righties, he should be back to being the great player he was from ‘05-’08 rather than the good player he was last year.

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Dec 11, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions