I will be shocked.

the Mets should play for the wildcard or 2011.

I agree that Murphy shouldn’t be more than a bench player in 2010. Sign Nick Johnson for two years, and let Ike Davis play in the outfield at Buffalo so that he’s not blocked by Johnson if he’s ready for the bigs in 2011.

He has a good bat and being that he would sign with the Mets and play against the team that released him 19 times a year could be motivation.

Is because the Mets have said for months that they want someone to pair with Murphy at 1B. I’m fine with Danny-Boy at first, but if the Mets want someone to put with him there, might as well be Garko.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/notable-non-tenders-hitters

CHONE projects him for a .361 wOBA, and even with -15 UZR/150 defense, he projects for about 1.5 WAR in LF/RF. I would also try to pick up Kelly Johnson and Wang. Johnson is not much worse than Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson.

actually his fb velocity increased this season and not just a little; 91.8mph in ’08 up to 93.6mph in ’09.

interestingly he threw it about 10% less though in ’09 so i think the real reason he got rocked is poor fb command, leading him to throw his middling secondary stuff more.

I know he’s going to miss this season, but I’d love to see the Mets sign him anyway to get him under team control. Good young relievers on 1 year deals are always valuable.

i like the idea someone mentioned about getting jose arredondo into the organization now while he’s rehabbing from TJ. he won’t be back until 2011 but pre-injury that guy had one of the most electric arms around and that’s a risk i’ll take.

dustin moseley is ok as far as buffalo/back of the rotation filler which doesn’t sound great but last season would have been gold.

another interesting guy is third baseman, matt brown. you may remember him as the starting 3B from the last olympic team. he was dropped because of his age (26) and a poor ‘09. however, this is a guy who put up a .950+ OPS w/ 21hrs and a .320avg in AAA in ’08 and 2 similar years before that. and supposedly he has a decent glove. basically he’s a guy who has always hit for power, pretty good average but not great K/BB%. actually he kinds of reminds me of shawn bowman except in the high minors.

Bill James is projecting him to have a much better year than he had in 2009. Even if you want to estimate those projections as not being conservative enough, his projected numbers don’t seem that bad. He knows how to close (even if he wasn’t that good at it), and we don’t have a “genuine” set-up guy. We could sign Capps- and, there’s plenty of Closers on the market this winter, so signing him to a somewhat cheap deal is a very real possibility- and have him serve as our set-up guy (or, if K-Rod is stinking it up/injured/fatigued, a back-up closer), and try the dual closer tandem again.

Capps is also fairly young, which is another thing to consider.

Matt Capps—Capps will never live up to the closer billing he inherited in Pittsburgh, but he has consistently posted xFIPs ~4.00 since making it to the majors. An inconsistent fastball lead to Capps getting tagged for a lot of homers last year, but I guarantee, with a more liberal budget, the Pirates held onto this guy. The Mets have some holes to fill in their pen, and they could do (and probably will do) a lot worse than Capps.

From a reliever, an ERA/FIP of 3.20 is preferred for one who doesn’t go through a batting order more than once. The enthusiasm here bears somewhat of a false security blanket. I call this one medium-risk, medium-reward (depending on the salary). Nothing to get too excited about yet.

Jack Cust—I’m torn. If a team gets Jack Cust to accept a bench role, there won’t be a better lefty pinch-hitter in the majors. That said, Cust will probably look for a DH job elsewhere, and the last-in-UZR Mets might want to look for another type of fourth “outfielder.”

Wow. Some of us really miss the ol’ Dave Kingman. In a sort of Ruthian fashion, you miss big, you hit big, and when it all comes down to it, it’s all or nothing. Definitely a bench player, but one underutilized for what he could do. I just don’t see it happening. I’ll pass on this one.

Ryan Garko—Mets fans are already clamoring for Ryan Garko as the perfect platoon-mate for Daniel Murphy. He has a .885 OPSvL and a reasonable 1.17 platoon ratio, so the ability to hit lefties is real. Garko, however, has no other attractive talents. He can’t field, play anything but first, hit righties, or run. Keeping him on the bench just to relieve Murphy against lefties isn’t a very productive use of a roster spot, especially since Manuel will end up pinch-hitting him against righties too often. If anyone wants to convince me Garko is more deserving of a roster spot than Nick Evans, who hits lefties nearly as well, with the added ability to play outfield and emergency catcher, good luck.

I liked Garko earlier, but he has disappointed. He should have broken out, but he in fact regressed. It’s really not worth it. Moderate-risk, medium-low-reward. I’m not buying it.

Garret Atkins—Although a incentive-laden deal would be tempting, I still have trouble finding where Atkins would fit on the bench. He’s basically Ryan Garko with more upside, but also considerably larger and more likely downside.

Can you say MEGABUST? He can’t even hit within the friendly confines of Coors Field all that well anymore! No, NOOO! Stay away. Put down the phone, Omar – don’t go on the Atkins Diet!

Ryan Langerhans—The Mariners replaced Endy Chavez with Ryan Langerhans and the Mariners are smart, so let’s do that too. Good BB% and decent power make for a league-average hitter with tremendous defensive ability.

Who had the lowest BB/K rate last year? Bengie Molina, of course. Yeah, the much sought-after “Mr. Cinderblock”! Just wanted to add this, since I just found out now.

If Alberto Callaspo’s defense was better, though, he would be a solid 2B replacement option. Sadly, for all his BB/K might, that is simply not the case. (insert frustrated smiley here)