The Decline Of Francisco Rodriguez: A Story Told In Graphs
by Eric Simon on Dec 14, 2009 6:00 AM EST
65 comments
0 recs |
65 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Those graphs tell an ugly story
I don’t even wanna know what they’ll look like after next season, let alone that 17 million dollar season.
they're gonna be fine next year
hes 27 years old, people dont decline at that age
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
Max-effort pitchers can
hence why his numbers show a pretty clear decline, despite switching to what’s supposed to be an easier league.
I hope that holds true in this case
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
He is clearly already declining
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 14, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
i take it you mean metsguy
ever since his voice broke he’s not been the same.
by letsgocyclones on Dec 14, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
i wish i had your unfounded optimism
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
especially since a full season as the teammate of jose reyes will continue to degrade frankie’s skill set. imagine what a complex handshake could do to k-rod over a 162 game season.
by letsgocyclones on Dec 14, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
cough cough oliver perez cough cough.
You just don’t get it, man. You just don’t get it.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Ruh-Roh
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
savez=winz=radical!
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 14, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Cru is totally rad! BMX to the limit yeah!
man i havent seen that movie since some hungover afternoon in college and barely remember anything about it but also TOTALLY REC’D TO THE MAX OH YEAH.
Lets hope that when gut check time comes again the Mets will pass it with flying colors.
Mets player eval in graphic form
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 14, 2009 9:41 AM EST reply actions
Also...
SEE MY VEST! SEE MY VEST! At team-crippling, it’s the best!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 14, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
On the bright side
17 Mill isn’t that much more than Omar gives to pitchers that are league average when he signs them, so it isn’t that bad. We all know that generic reliever + lots of saves = top 10 reliever in the league, so K-rod will clearly be worth the money as long as he has the closers job (which he will, since we all know that a middle reliever can’t earn more than a closer – thats just crazy!)
K-rods graphs are pretty frightening
But I think I’m actually more concerned about Johan’s declining stats. Since we have him under contract for much longer and at a much higher price, and since at least with K-rod we can always hold out hope that his option doesn’t vest for some reason.
to be fair Johan was pitching through an injury for a while
I give him the benefit of the doubt that he will bounce back to form next year. it would take some sort of wonderful miracle for k-rods option not to vest.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
is this
what you guys needed the graphic design help for?
no
Omar lost him in the rule 5 draft
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 14, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Traded to the Mayo Clinic for a competant doctor...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 14, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
those graphs make me sad
but really, all they are saying is that he is striking out less people and walking more. Just 4 different ways of saying 2 things.
fact of the matter is he is still one of the better closers in the game, and was having an amazing season when we were in contention.
KRod is not going to be the reason the mets are awesome or not for the next two years. I mean, this site has gone into detail saying how the closer position is overrated, so having him isnt a bad thing.
Just because Omar gave him a crazy contract and he will be overpaid, does not mean he is less valuable. He is still a very good closer.
Angel Pagan is "valuable"
But would you pay him 15 million a year? He is less valuable if having him on the team prevents them from getting players who would add more value to the team than he does.
by Gina on Dec 14, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no i would not
but if he is paid 15 mil or 2 mil he is still a valuable player
Value declines as the price tag increases
Value is obviously created by on-the-field contributions, but value can and is also produced for being potential trade bait (as in why prospects have value, despite not contributing at the Major League level). With a larger contract, being involved in a trade lessens. As such, value lessens.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 14, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
duh
all i am saying is we still have one of the better closers out there, and despite the fact that you all hate him now because Omar gave him a stupid contract and he is on the downside, there are tons of fans that would welcome their team to have KRod close games for them this year and next.
if it wasnt for his contract
and that last huge year they would. very easily.
actually the point was
Just because Omar gave him a crazy contract and he will be overpaid, does not mean he is less valuable. He is still a very good closer.
maybe less valuable was the wrong way to say it. I prob should have said “does not mean he is of no value. he is still a very good closer.”
I like KRod and glad he is our closer. I dont like the last year of the contract, but I like the player. Even though he is at the tail end of his prime.
I mean of the post
And the fact is if a player prevents you from signing more valuable players than they lose value.
the point of the post
was a couple graphs showing how KRod is getting worse. Doesnt say a thing about contracts. It was highlighting how KRod is on the downside of his prime. Which, while undeniable, still makes him a valuable closer.
If the players contract prevents you from signing more valuable players then it shows the poor planning of the General Manager. It should not change your opinion of the on-field value, because then you are basing you playing time on how much money a player makes.
if you argue that the contract of a player has an effect of his on the field value (since that is what this post was about) then do you argue that a players contract should effect playing time?
Prime example being
if we can’t go after a player like Matt Holliday or John Lackey because we’re paying K-rod 13 million. Would you not say preventing us from adding those players could be the reason we miss the post-season?
The contract does matter
If the money committed to him prevents the Mets from signing other, more valuable players, it matters.
If the contract make him untradeable if the Mets fall out of contention and look to rebuild, it matters.
If the manager keeps running him out there because he’s making $15 million, and he’s the “closer”, it matters.
The closer position is overrated, which is why having a declining player locked in to a set role for a lot of money matters.
yes I know
i wasnt saying anything about the contract.
Just that even with the declining numbers he is still a very good closer.
The issue is the contract. Not the person.
Not to mention the person who gave the contract.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 14, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Or the contract that gave the person who gave the contract the authority to give that contract
and the person who gave him that
by letsgocyclones on Dec 14, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
whatever
your right.
im over it.
everyone sucks. I should not even watch the games.
"you're" right
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 14, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
"fact of the matter is he ... was having an amazing season when we were in contention."
Are you suggesting that Frankie was tailoring his performance to how well the team was playing, and that he wouldn’t have declined in the second half if the team hadn’t fallen out of contention? Because, bullshit.
well... i dont think he was tailoring his performance
but Frankie does seem to get very into the emotion of the game. And I felt there was a signifigant change in him (and the team for that matter) after the Castillo drop vs. the Yankees.
If we had been in the race the whole time? I bet his numbers may have been a little better. Huge difference? Prob not. But of all the people in the game, I would think KRod uses his emotions to drive his performance more then most. I have not done the research, but that would be my guess from just watching.
doubtful
he’s always walked an excessive amount of batters regardless of his teams record. wFB/C has his fastball at average last year (-.06 runs compared to replacement) and he’s never had a fastball even 1 win over replacement, Previously his best pitch, the slider (wSL/C) has declined sharply over the years (0.54 in 2008, and he dropped the pitch entirely in 2009). His slider was his best pitch during his previous years, so losing this pitch clearly affects his value. His curveball (wCB/C) was negative last year, so that pitch was below average, and he used it much more than he has in all but one other season (although in previous years it was around 3 runs above average, so this decline was much more pronounced than the others). The only pitch he has that hasn’t sharply declined over the last 2-3 years is his changeup which has consistently been a few runs over replacement. A changeup doesnt do as much good when the fastball is so weak. So what you now have is a closer with an average fastball, an above average changeup, and a below average curve, who has dropped the pitch that used to make him valuable. I’d say the problem is far from one of intensity, its one of losing his out pitch and not having other tools to compensate for it.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
that is interesting
but just proves the point that he is in decline. Which is to be expected…
Wherever it is you got those stats, does it show how it changed during the season? Especially when compared to seasons when he was on a winning team?
got it from fangraphs
the decline has been steady and sharp pretty much every year. I don’t think it has as much to do with leveraged situations as it does him losing his secondary pitches and having to resort to an average fastball. They don’t have it plotted as season progressed (that would be great data to see) but the greater point is that his pitches have gotten worse with each passing year by an alarming amount. This trend is pretty consistent since 2006 season, and the 06-09 angels were all competitive teams, so its hard to pin this on him playing with a team out of contention. I think the decline in skills is reason enough to think k-rod might not be the kind of guy another team would want for any extended period of time.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 14, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
First Things First.....
While I’m not highly delighted with K-Rod as a closer (though he is good for the sale of Tums), the debate about his contract is a factor, but his discussion should wait in line behind the money pledged to keep Ollie under contract. K-Rod, at worst is a so-so reliever, the Ollie of last year was just plan awful. Deal with griping about Ollie and Castillo, and THEN we can carp about K-Rod. Or better yet, get rid of Omar and Jerry and maybe we’ll have something to be happy about.
Trust me on this
The Ollie and Castillo contracts have not been given a free pass around here.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 14, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone noticed that Jeff Francoeur barely ever walks?
what’s the deal with that guy?
by letsgocyclones on Dec 14, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
He certainly doesn't get the aforementioned free passes.
They aren’t stats anyway, so…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 14, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
I was kidding
But you know what has really escaped our notice? The fact that the Mets weren’t any good last year. I for one want better.
by letsgocyclones on Dec 14, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Ollie Putz Frank the Closer
however will Omar top that off-season haul???
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
K-Rod
I was hoping there was some injury explanation for his suckitude, but since he’s pitchedin winter ball, that doesn’t seem likley.
His ERA was 3.71, by far the highest of his career
He blew 7 saves in 42 tries, his k/9 was the lowest of his career, his FIP was 4.01, his xFIP was 4.32. He was average, which is fine if he didn’t have the exorbitant contract he has.
"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"
But Metsguy said he was, so he was.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 14, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Hey metsguy,
Many of us (including Eric, who copied and pasted these beautiful graphs from fangraphs) have outlined many reasons as to why Francisco Rodriguez was not good good last year and is in the midst of a disturbing downward trend (especially for a guy who will be paid $17.5mm in 2011). However, you have insisted that he is a “true closer” and a good relief pitcher. Yet, these assertions have not been accompanied by any evidence, statistical or otherwise. Please, please use this forum to back up your claims or else you will be forever ridiculed by the masses.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 2:28 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Amazin' Avenue
Related FanShots on Amazin' Avenue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Swisher ends Orioles sweep dreams with timely homer
- Create-a-Caption: Dusty Baker wants YOU to buy playoff tickets
- Padres' Heath Bell wistful about Trevor Hoffman's 600th save
- Want your first career home run? Face a pitcher from Chicago
- Slumpbot .200: Phil Hughes runs into New York's Joba Rules
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
