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Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Star-divide

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

  • Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
  • Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
  • John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
  • Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.  

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

0 recs  |  Comment 59 comments |

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Aside from Sheets, Harang is the only remotely interesting option you posted.

Lowe is declining, aging, has a horrible contract, and we’d have to give up something of value to the Braves for him.

Smoltz is a good guy, but he’s honestly paper tissue at this point.

I don’t even know where to start with Davis, well actually I do: HE SUCKS.

His tRA is horrible, his xFIP has been at least 4.6 three of the last four years, and he has god awful control: a 6.46 K/9, to go with a 4.56 BB/9

Oh, and you know who had a lower FIP than him last year???……

LIVAN F—KING HERNANDEZ, THE GUY WE ALL HATED

So to summarize, yes to Sheets, yes to Harang, no to Lowe, no to Smoltz, and a loud HELL NO to Doug freaking Davis

by Syler on Dec 15, 2009 6:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

um
his xFIP has been at least 4.6 three of the last four years

so that would make him…
A. Average
B. The secondbest xFIP on the Mets last season
C. All of the above

He’s not my favorite either, but you went about proving that he sucks interestingly.

by Sam Page on Dec 15, 2009 6:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps I did, but I really don't want Davis on the Mets

It’s not as if he’ll want only $2 million; he’ll want at least $5 or $6 million

Plus, you make it seem as if being the second best xFIP on the team last year is an accomplishment. Pelfrey had a down year, Maine was injured, and Perez was just bad… Plus, his xFIP was marginally better than Livan’s, and people wanted Livan gone rather quickly.

I know I went over the top, but Davis would not be a good signing by Omar.

by Syler on Dec 15, 2009 6:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not with this defense

he wouldn’t survive. The Livan comp is apt.

by Sam Page on Dec 15, 2009 6:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He was talking about multiple years

at least a while back. Even when he is good he can be painful to watch. Very slow and plenty of walks.

by ol Pete on Dec 15, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

being the second best pitcher on the Mets does not mean you don't suck

I don’t think Davis sucks, I just thought I should point this out

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Dec 15, 2009 6:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

speaking of xFIP, when did it appear on fangraphs?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 7:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

fangraphs and hardball times have merged, sort of

hardball times is no longer hosting stats on its site, so fangraphs absorbed some of their proprietary stats, like xFIP.

by englishgrey on Dec 15, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ah.

You can still find stats on THT though

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm one of the few who likes Livan.

He’s better than giving starts to Jose Lima, or the Met career of Chan Ho Park. Most fifth-best starting slots on ML teams would have been improved by a year of Livan.

by SeanSchirmer on Dec 16, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand we rolled craps on the market here

But we’re coming off being the most injured team in modern baseball history, and with this hypothetical, our top two free agent signings pitched a grand total of five innings last year?

Eesh. Wish we’d just given the extra 5 mil or whatever to Lackey.

- Rivers McCown, From Mom's Basement | Twitter

by riversmccown on Dec 15, 2009 6:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

According to today's Daily News, Lackey wanted no part of the Mets

which is not surprising and yet completely depressing at the time

by Syler on Dec 15, 2009 6:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I lol'd for awhile.

"I was so frustrated [Saturday], I [could have said] anything," ~Oliver Perez

by Lance Johnson on Dec 16, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why should he, really?

I mean we’re a mid-market team with an old stadium and no stars…

…what?

by SeanSchirmer on Dec 16, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Meh

I imagine it’s more the public perception of the front office being a mad house, between the willie firing, the benezard rumors, the benezard firing, omar’s comments about rubin.

We don’t exactly give off the image of stability.

by Gina on Dec 16, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's good, that's good...It keeps everyone else off balance, you know?

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 16, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait

Sheets pitched 0 innings but who is the other pitcher who threw 5 last year?

by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Escobar, I think.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 15, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets and Harang

would be a really nice haul. When healthy Sheets is very good, and as you suggest, Harang would benefit greatly from Citifield. I’ve been good, Santa.

by wobatus on Dec 15, 2009 8:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I think we will be fine with Sheets, Harang, and perhaps Bedard? Provided that we sign Jason Bay. I would also be a bit more aggressive with Chapman.

by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

might be a strech

Bedard is a stretch, scratch that. I would love to have him, but there is no room in the rotation. If Harang and Sheets are included.

by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Other options

Instead of trading for Harang, why don’t they go after Oswalt for the rotation and Berkman to solve the issue at first. Then we can also sign Sheets.

by TomCarvel on Dec 15, 2009 8:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

A) Berkman will be 34 by the start of the season so he probably isn’t a long-term solution
B) Oswalt is 32 and has a lot of miles on his arm over the last 8 seasons
C) You’d have to give up a ton to get the Astros (or any team) to give up their best position player and their best pitcher (though maybe Oswalt has been surpassed by Wandy Rodriguez) in the same deal

by JoshNY on Dec 15, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We might be able to take on a bad contract

The Astros have a plethora of them.

by Gina on Dec 15, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We already have a plethora of them too

Can we really absorb more bad contracts along with one or two large good contracts?

by JoshNY on Dec 15, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

we should be able to afford them, especially if they’re expiring soon, being some 50+ million under the lt, it’s whether the Wilpons would be willing to take them on. And considering reports seem to indicate they aren’t letting Omar spend up to the lt threshold this year, instead keeping it more inline with last years payroll, then I’d imagine they wouldn’t be.

by Gina on Dec 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lee has a full no trade

he’s been asked and said no I believe. Oswalt and Berkman may also have partial or full no trade clauses too.

by ol Pete on Dec 15, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Astros...

…have been reluctant to give up guys like this. They seem to have the “Fans will come to cheer on the old favorites even if we don’t win” organizational philosophy.

by danielj on Dec 15, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

honestly

I’d prefer the Mets have that strategy than whatever it is they’re doing now. If they’re gonna lose 90 games anyway, I’d rather go watch Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo than Omir Santos and Luis Castillo

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Dec 15, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All these mediocre pitchers, ahg...

how about trade for Roy Oswalt or a good Zambrano. TomCarvel agree with you. About
33 mil due to Oswalt 2010/2011. To get Berkman and Oswalt would be too costly, however.

by 1969met on Dec 15, 2009 9:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pair Sheets with Garland

I know Garland doesn’t have quite the upside as some of the other pitchers mentioned, but I think he provides a nice, steady arm at the back of the rotation. So I say sign Sheets, Garland, and Holliday, and I’ll be a happy boy.

by dcmetsfan on Dec 15, 2009 9:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

No way we get Holliday now. That contract the Cards offered will be tough to beat.

by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately true

I can live with Bay, but I’m dreading the corner OF defense we’d have.

by dcmetsfan on Dec 15, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about Noah Lowry?

I bet we could get him real cheap, minor league contract and if he is healthy he could be okay.

by Delgado on Dec 15, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's have to be pretty cheap

considering he hasn’t been any good (even when healthy) since 2005.

by JoshNY on Dec 15, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Paring Sheets and Harang

is the best way to go

DO WHAT JOSE REYES DO!!!

by Jadden Hopkins on Dec 15, 2009 11:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure

because both come with injury risks. If someone like Garland can be had relatively cheaply I’d want to pair him with one of them.

by Gina on Dec 15, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i like garland as the safe bet as well

he’s not going to be stellar but you know exactly what you’re going to get from him. He’d make a much better safety net if Sheets or Harang were injured.

by KeithsMoustache on Dec 15, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Piniero

is a fair option. His groundball rate should be sustainable per http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-pinerios-newfound-groundball-success-sustainable
and even with a weak secondbasemen fielding his numbers wouldn’t inflate to the point of not being worthy (obviously depending on his price) as long as Reyes, Wright and Murphy (or serviceable 1B) field the way they can. Durability would be a nice compliment to a Sheets signing, should Harang cost too much.

by Super Mario on Dec 15, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Robothal says...

…yanks are very interested in Sheets.

by danielj on Dec 15, 2009 12:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

On satiating the masses
I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.

I always say things like this, with good reason, but I hateHATEhate Schmoltz and his becoming a Met would be like taking a dump on my and every other right-thinking met fans’ lawn. He is an evil vile Br*ve, and I would die inside knowing that proceeds from every Alex Corra bobblehead I buy goes in part to his salary. Plus he’s probably washed up, not that that precludes Omar from signing him.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 1:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like Smoltz

But because he is a good pitcher, not for the “wants it more.” Well, he was a very good pitcher. And he may have something left but no thanks.

by wobatus on Dec 15, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha

you’re all over me today.

come over to the light side and hate Smoltz with me.
I’m your father.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

not to be confused with

“daddy”

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I want to, based on the giant "A" he wore on his cap for years

But there’s something about that beard and his fun last name I can’t resist.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

his beard isn't even gritty

it looks all in-bred

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

former Braves-to-Mets in recent memory

Tom “Game 162” Glavine
Jeff “scoreboard” Francouer

Let’s make some more memories…

I’m sure my brain has protected itself by self-destructing some other terrible events

by hotspur on Dec 15, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bret Boone was a Met for like 3 days

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Dec 15, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can't believe

Sheets is really expecting 12 mil after not pitching last year. The Brewers have really skewered the market by paying Wolf so much.

I think Harang pretty much blows, I wouldn’t give up anyone decent for him.

It’s getting to the point where maybe they should just save money for next year’s free agent class, which is better anyway. It’s not like this team is going anywhere in 2010.

by Mackey Sasser on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Penny got 7.5 plus 1.5 in achievable incentives

If you ask me, that’s a lot. Ten for Wolf doesn’t seem like that much to me. He probably would have gotten that from someone.

by ol Pete on Dec 15, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I want no part of giving Sheets $12 million guaranteed dollars.

I’d be more inclined to give him, say, a base contract of $6 million dollars, with incentives to work it up to $12. In my AAOP, I would offer a base of $5, with incentives working up to $10, but $6/$12 is close enough.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hell

Were it MLBPA-legal, I’d give him $5-6 million, with incentives to work it to $15-20 million. If he’s 200-innings/10 CY votes good, pay the man his myooooneh.

by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 15, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Like...

A bulked-up version of the Orlando Hudson deal. Various inning triggers (500K each for 50, 65, 80, 95, 110, 125, 140 and 150 innings), with 30K for every inning beyond 150, say. He’d get an additional 4.6 for doing 170 innings, e.g. Add in other readily-achievable performance bonuses ($0.5M for 100 Ks, $1M each for 150 and 200 Ks), and you’re paying close to market rate for a co-#1 starter.

We’d be guaranteeing about the same as the MFYanks and other interested parties; why not raise our roof to increase our appeal?

by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 15, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd meet Sheets' demand

I’d rather the Mets pay $12 million for one-year of Sheets than given two or three-year deals to any of the other mediocre pitchers on the market. Pineiro, Marquis, Garland, and the like are not going to turn the Mets into contenders in 2010 or beyond.

by englishgrey on Dec 15, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Odds are, the 2010 Mets aren't going to be contenders to begin with.

I’d rather just save the $12 million guaranteed dollars that Sheets wants, sign someone to a base, Minor League deal and promote him, let whatever happens happen, and save $11 million dollars. Give Livan a shot again!

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

in my dreams they'd take that 11 million dollars

and draft AND SIGN every sign ability risk that falls to them

by Gina on Dec 15, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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