Roy Halladay Applesauce - World ends for the Mets, Seattle looks amazing, Holliday gets 8 year offer, Torrealba time
by Joe Budd on Dec 15, 2009 8:34 AM EST
in Applesauce
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A big thanks to James for filling in last week. I was taking a break to make sure that I didn't flunk out of law school. Hopefully, it worked.
Roy Halladay news
Get ready people, the Phillies have made a major news and the Mets have done nothing. Guess this means it's time to panic and hate on the Mets. I mean, the Phillies just got the best player this offseason, how can the Mets compete? But, wait. What's this? Phillie fans are hating this move? (More here. And here.) It looks like this is the ultra-rare trade that is a loss for both the Phillies and the Mets. How about that.
I think we all know who the winner though in this trade is: Seattle. Here's a quick update (probably will change, if it hasn't already) of the prospects getting moved.
Royals Review manages to make me depressed even by insulting the Phillies.
By the way, if the Mets had landed Halladay, which they could never have done, the Wilpons should have brought in Survivor to do his entrance music (watch until the end).
Meet the Mets
This Mike Silva post cracked me up. Looks like St. Louis has offered an 8 YEAR DEAL to Matt Holliday at a $16 million average, which, by his calculations means $128 million total. This also means that the Mets will probably have to include a fifth year to land Bay, which is actually a fair point. Do we really want to go down this path though? What is the over/under on years before the Matt Holliday contract becomes an anchor around the Cardinals' neck? Why is it that the only answer that Met commentators have to the Mets' current mess is to continue making the same mistakes? Or, when all else fails, we can blame the fact that Omar only signs Latinos.
Speaking of repeating mistakes, the Mets might still have interest in Yorvit Torrealba, even in the midst of a grievance hearing.
Let's just hope that the Mets don't sign Jason Bay to a 9 year, $250 million deal to sell a few extra season tickets to the Canadian ex-pats living in New York. Or agree to a three year deal with Bengie Molina.
The Eddie Kranepool Society has a post about his favorite teams, some of whom manage to honor their history.
Here is your totally random ex-Met news of the day: Scott Strickland has wound up with the Marlins.
And finally, here's your chance to hang out with Ted Berg, James Kannengieser, Sam Page, and Joe Janish. Tomorrow night. 500 West 43rd St (at 10th Avenue).
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Man
I wish I could come along tomorrow night, it sounds truly awesome. Sadly, I am broke and 200 miles away.
I would also like to attend but I'm stuck in the office and 160 miles away.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 15, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I'm also having to conserve my pennies
because it looks like I will be stuck here for two more weeks due to the BA strike
Ah, that sucks.
You’re one of the unlucky million stranded customers, eh? Sorry to hear that.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 15, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Luckily I don’t have a wedding/medical emergency/something crucial to be at, but I have friends who are more seriously affected. I really hope BA are going to bend over backwards to make this as pleasant as possible because if they survive this (and it’s not clear they will as they are in huge financial trouble) they will need all the customer loyalty they can get.
Were you going back to England?
I’m going for Christmas on American.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going on the 22nd
Ryanair?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
you should have flown Delta
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
ho ho ho
the curse of Rudolf means he’s not long for the metz
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
that's, um
that’s photoshopped, right? normally I would just assume so, but it’s better than most of the photoshop work that we normally do around here.
nope. photo is courtesy
of cruel harsh reality
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
The Mets organization just stopped bothering trying to appease the kids, and make the dressed-up Santa look like Santa.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Holliday: 8 years + opt out + full no-trade clause
At this rate, I should get used to the idea of Pagan at LF.
Unbelievable
in that this is the Cardinals we’re talking about. Unless the Mets get involved there is almost no way he can walk away from this deal.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Dec 15, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
I can't see that
being the opening bid for Holliday though. Why start at 8/128 in a still depressed market?
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Dec 15, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
to get him signed
they may think getting him locked up will help them get Pujols to sign an extension sooner than later.
easier said than done
Do you still think the Mets can beat that offer? I think they can by offering $19M over 7. I am not crazy about doing it though. Under these conditions, I would take Bay. Front load it so you can flip him in the 5th year to an AL team.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah if they front loaded a Bay contract I would be fine with it
Since it’s not like there’s much else out there to spend money on this year anyway, but I’m really not a fan of paying him 20 million for his 34/35 year old season.
It's probably not 8 guaranteed years. Could be 4 guaranteed, 2 vesting options, 2 club options, backloaded.
Leaking partial information like “8 years/$16 million average” is misleading and to be used to increase the bids.
I’d rather not take Bay. We will end up overpaying and giving excessive years and we won’t be able to unload him later.
if they frontload the bay contract I will have far less of a problem with it
but i fear they’ll backload it because they seem to like doing that.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 15, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Even if it was 16m, AL teams are paying less than 10m for DH these days.
It wouldn’t be that easy to trade him.
Can someone explain why the contract would be backloaded?
You guys are smarter than me, but I can’t think of why they’d possibly want to do that.
The way I see it, the only reason to do that is if you were either cash-strapped right now and/or wanted to save that extra cash for another big-time player. The Mets say the former isn’t true and no players fit the latter description.
Why would you pay someone more when they are going to be presumably the least productive? At a time when guys like Reyes/Wright need new deals, Frankie’s albatross of an option kicks in, etc.
What am I missing?
by Bieser's Balk on Dec 15, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
The contract would be backloaded
because Omar is trying to save his own ass by putting together a competitive team now, and cover it if he gets fired by saddling his successor with a bunch of albatross contracts that will insure more problems in the future.
haha
comment(s) of the day
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
shitty governments = all governments
unfortunately for us, shitty GMs != all GMs
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
i would buy that if they backloaded it to sign Lackey or someone
which might still be a questionable business practice, but at least there would be a point to it.
i’m sure you’re right, though. probably my fault for looking for logic within the front office of the mets
by Bieser's Balk on Dec 15, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Given the same total value of the contract, it's better to pay later than sooner.
1) You can invest the difference during those years. At the very least you collect interest from risk-free bonds.
2) You can adjust the payments to your cash flow. You usually expect your revenues to increase over time.
3) There is an inflation of $ per WAR. In 2002, 1 WAR=2.6m. In 2008=4.5m (Fangraphs)
For luxury tax purposes, it doesn’t make a difference. It’s used the average annual salary.
For trading the player later, it shouldn’t make much difference. For example, 2 years paying 10-10 or 8-12. You could trade in the last year paying 0 or 2.
by Michkin on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Backloaded = Lower Present Value
If you discount back the future payments, the present value of the contract is lower.
If you’re not into Finance…basically, if you can invest your money at 5% per year, then $20m four years from now would be equal to $16.45m today (i.e., you could put $16.45m into an account and withdraw $20m in four years time). So, if you backload a contract…you are actually giving less value to a player. This is why contracts with signing bonuses (money up-front) are more appealing to players than money over time.
This is the whole ridiculous hubbub over the $1m Bonilla payments that are now being paid. The Mets forced Bonilla to accept a long deferral of the payments, so that the real value that they were paying would be much lower. They don’t get credit for that though.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 15, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
on a case by case basis this does favor backloading
the problem is backloading becomes a huge problem if you need to trade that player in the future (such as would be the case for Bay and a 5 year deal since he’s the type to devolve into a DH as his career progresses). When the later years cost more, it becomes much harder to trade a player off, and then you have to salary dump where you get nowhere near what the trade value of a player should be because his contract is so bloated. If you fully intend to keep a player for the full contract then backloading is a wise decision. If its a player you’re likely going to have to deal before the end of his tenure (which I think Bay will be) then it is a less intelligent choice
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 15, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
in reality, it doesn't matter from a present value perspective
since you would rather include 5 million in a deal in 5 years than pay that 5 million on the immediate deal. You get the time value advantage – which is significant – whether you include it as cash in a deal or you pay the player.
The problem is only appearances. Just like right now people think we are paying Bonilla 1 mill a year to do nothing even though the money is paid from a fund that was established when the money was promised (or soon after), it will be bad for PR to have Jason Bay on a “2 year, 45 million” contract in two years. We could trade him then by including the 15 million worth of performance we would have already (possibly) have gotten, but the fans will not like it.
Backloading obviously usually makes the most financial sense for a team
However, there are many factors that make a very unappealing for the Mets to be paying Jason Bay so much money down the road. One, he is projected to lose a lot of value as he enters his mid-30s. He will be a strictly DH-type player and a low salary figure may make him an appealing trade target. Secondly, Wright and Reyes will be actually paid real money during this time. Would you want the Mets to let Reyes go walking because Jason Bay is on the books for $20 mil in 2012?
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
There’s definitely a balance that a GM has to strike in expectations for a specific player, current payroll, future payroll, roster flexibility, prospect projections, etc. No doubt. There are a lot of things that have to be taken into account when offering a contract, especially one that will take up 10-15% of your Major League payroll.
I wasn’t trying to address Bay’s purported contract or the Mets situation specifically…just trying to explain why a team would normally prefer to backload contracts.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 15, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
in to Finance
i have to take a final exam in my finance class on thursday. i’ll ive really learned is that my professor likes to pronounce it, fuh-NANCE. that and a bunch of excel short cuts i doubt i’ll ever use again.
Lets hope that when gut check time comes again the Mets will pass it with flying colors.
Fixing the Mets
on MLB.com JsJx80 and dscope146 wrote: “the mets should trade everyone ,but
Wright and Reyes,” “and feel badly for Santana, because Mets will be awful.” I absolutely
agree. Keep Reyes and Wright and build the farm system. I’ve been saying this since June.
What are we, the goddamn Rays
The Mets have enough resources that they can simultaneously build a champtionship-caliber ballclub and build a farm system. Unfortunately , one resource that they do lack is competent management.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Therefore,
No, we are not the Rays
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
Devil Rays, damn it!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Then?
Depression set in…
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
The Jets aren't making it to the playoffs
They lost to the Jags and the Dolphins twice. It’s all Mark Sanchez’ fault.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
The Jets have a higher probability of making the playoffs than do the Dolphins: http://files.nfl-forecast.com/ – it still doesn’t look good, though
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Depressing? Ohhhhhh yeah.
Lackey and Cameron sign with the Red Sox.
The Yankees trade for Grunderson.
Holliday looks like he’s going to the Cards.
Our division rivals, the ********, just upgraded to the best pitcher in baseball with a payroll about $35 million less than the Mets’.
And we have to offer Bengie F. Molina 3/18 to lure him to our pitiful, small market base ball team.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully
Tomorrow’s AA get together won’t feel like an Irish wake.
I didn't really mean this to be a depressing day
Because I don’t feel that upset about yesterday. I can’t be that unhappy with the moves/non-moves outside of the Alex Cora signing. I’m not that excited for overpaying a player just for the sake of answering the Phillies. The Mets need to add depth and quality contracts and so far they’re appearing to do that.
Yup
If Philly is really giving up who they’re said to be giving up, this does not make them in any way fearsome and it hurts them for the future (I do feel though, just with my natural mets fan tendencies, that the reports must be wrong and they’re making out like bandits).
We probably end up with Bay and Molina. I don’t think we go three years, because we’ve got a catcher in waiting, and who else wants him so much? And we’ll just have to eat some of Bay’s contract in a few years and ship him to the AL.
The news could be worse.
I agree about shipping him out to the AL in his last year. I think they should front load the contract to make it easier to send him off to the AL in the last year.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Huh? I don't think of myself as a depressive, but the thought of
Bay and Molina make me want to stick my head in an oven.
Asfor Halladay and the P*******’ farm system, why is it good news that in three years if they really screw up we might be as good as they are?
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
Didnt
survivor do the real men of genius commercials also? those were amazing
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Dec 15, 2009 10:18 AM EST reply actions
Kindasorta.
Thank Bob Winter (of asd DDB Chicago) for the writing, but yeah— it’s Survivor’s Dave Bickler singing… which increases the ads’ awesome quotient by 357%, roughly. (I’ve done the math.)
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 15, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Is it just me
or is the “big three way Halladay-Lee trade” not a three-way at all and doesn’t involve any Halladay-Lee swap either? Isn’t it just Halladay for Phillies prospects and then Lee for Seattle prospects?
Right
I can’t figure out based on the prospects involved so far how this is actually three way. I guess Philly really wanted to make sure they were able to trade away Lee after landing Halladay and so locked in their deal with Seattle.
The Phillies also got two prospects from Seattle, hence the term "threeway".
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
right
it’s more like a dude having sex with one lady, walking to the room next door and having sex with another lady. Yea, he had sex with two ladies, but it’s not a three-way
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Why are people freaking?
The Phils got marginally better, and probably not at all in the short run. The extension is the real plus in the deal for the Phils, though they’ll be losing some high-quality prospects.
A fifth year for Bay makes me squeamish but probably isn’t quite the albatross some are making it out to be.
The key questions facing this team remain (in no particular order)…
1. Can we ditch Castillo and upgrade the middle infield defense? To be determined.
2. Can we find offense for one of the corner outfield spots (at least). To be determined, but it’s probably Bay or bust at this point.
3. Can we land a front-end starter without cutting off our nose to spite our face? Given that the answer is now no (at least to the front-end starter part of the question), can we find a quality mid-rotation pitcher whose value we can boost by putting good defense behind him?
4. Can we get more offense at first base? To be determined.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
The Phillies just replaced 15 games of Cliff Lee
with four years of Roy Halladay at the incredibly low price of 4/68.
Five years for Bay has no realistic shot at being worth even 70% of what he signs for in the NL, and may be vastly worse.
As for 1, 2, 3, and 4, our GM and FO has been outmaneuvered at every turn and is so bad that despite a $140m payroll and a new $800m stadium premium players avoid the Mets like cancer. Do you think ANY confidence in Minaya’s ability to navigate what little remains of this offseason is justified?
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
you keep saying this 15 games thing
they didn’t replace 15 games of Cliff Lee – they replaced ~35 games of Cliff Lee with Halladay. Unless you’re clairvoyant and know that Lee’s only gonna be making 15 starts next year.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
he would seem to be assuming
that the Phils would have traded Lee midseason rather than keep him through free agency and let him walk
12 games, actually.
Cliff Lee did not pitch a full season for the Phillies in 2009. He pitched 12 games in the regular season for them.
Halladay will probably pitch 31-33 games for the Phillies in 2010. That’s a huge difference. If you go by their respective WARs in 2009 Halladay’s contribution to the Phillies in 2010 compared to Lee’s contribution in 2009 will be 5 wins greater.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 17, 2009 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
Can anyone think of any players
that don’t play for gms that would probably rob Omar blind, that are relatively young and their teams will need to trade them soon, like 2010/2011 because they’re getting expensive fast? Like Prince Fielder or Miguel Cabrera types?
Mauer?
Although I’m pretty sure that Minnesotans would rend Bill Smith apart with their teeth if they don’t resign him.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 15, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Question about Molina
Not that there’s any news about him or anything. But, I look at his WAR, and he had 1.8 last season, with 2.9, 1.9, 2.1 etc in each year before that, hovering around 2 wins since 2003. So, why is everyone dreading him signing? Even taking into account decline, it seems like he would be worth the kind of contract the Mets would give him.
I’m not arguing in favor of Molina- I’m just less-well-versed in player valuation, so I’ve been wondering what’s behind the outcry.
Is WAR known to not be reliable with catchers?
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions
Because that WAR doesn't take defense or base running into account
Both of which Molina is terrible at and would likely bring his WAR to below 1
Ah. Maybe I knew that but then forgot. I knew that it didn’t take catcher defense into account, of course.
Is there a stat that takes baserunning into account or does it come into play only when players are particularly bad?
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Here's a few links to posts evaluating Molina including baserunning and defense
by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks
One thing I’m wondering is whether the average baserunning ability of catchers would be lower than other positions (so Molina’s -5 runs might be more like -4 or -3). So even factoring baserunning in he might still be at 15 RAR which would mean the contract might be on the edge of being OK.
Do you know of any actual reports saying that his defense is deficient? It looks like, on Fangraphs, he’s actually near the top in the few defensive categories that apply to catchers.
So- once again, I’m not arguing for Molina, but I am trying to figure out how depressed I should be if we do sign him.
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Scratch that
I just clicked on the Ted Berg piece and I guess my question’s answered there.
I should’ve read everything before I posted.
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I still think he's not that bad
Another thing WAR doesn’t include is situational hitting which Molina seems to be very good at.
As for the baserunning, the 20 bases he cost a year is worth maybe -6 runs. That’s probably not that much worse than an average catcher, maybe -3. I also think there’s likely some small degree of skill in game calling which goes unmeasured here. Maybe only a few runs worth in a year. So overall though, yeah I think he might still be as much as a 1.5 WAR guy.
I figure for 500 PA, -8 Bat -5 D -3 BR +3 clutch +2 game calling +17 replacement +10 positional = 1.4 WAR
Keep in mind the Mets seem to want him in part because they think the inexperience of the young catchers last year hurt the pitching. Molina is a guy they might learn something from. Though I’m not sure Blanco doesn’t serve the same purpose well enough. And still no way they should go over the 2 year deal they’ve already offered.
The additional baserunning positional adjustment doesn't make sense
That’s why we have the overall positional adjustment (+10 as you said above) as a catch-all. You don’t say “He’s -8 with the bat overall but only -1 for catchers”. If he’s a -6 baserunner you leave it at that.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
It depends how they calculated it
It depends how they calculated the positional adjustment.
Did they account for base running there?
If they weren’t including baserunning, and you are including base running now, you need to change the positional adjustment.
Since they weren’t including base running all along, I was assumuing they also neglected it when calculating positional adjustments.
Yeah, but if baserunning were included in WAR there likely would be some kind of shift in the overall positional adjustments. I wouldn’t know what that would be, but I would guess that catchers would get a boost in that category.
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's included
It looks like James is probably right.
It looks like CF and 2B both have right around league average offense, but + 2.5 positional. So league average offense is for some reason about +2.5 on the positional scale.
Next, league average wOBA for catchers in 2009 was .3145.
In 600 PA, while league average wOBA was .328. So the average catcher, per 600 PA, was (.3145-.328)/1.1785*600= -6.9 runs
For base running, I downloaded the data from BP, sorted out the catchers, and calculated that on the whole they were -2.2 compared to league average in (EQBRR-EQBSR).
So 6.9+2.2+2.5 = 11.6
So I doubt they are getting to a -12.5 positional adjustment per 600 PA without having included base running in the positional adjustment.
If Molina is 2.0 WAR before adjustments, he's barely replacement level WITH adjustments.
-0.6 for baserunning (he’s ungodly bad)
-0.5 defense
-0.5 for age related decline each year
puts him close to zero. For $6m that’s horrible. I’d much rather run Santos and Blanco out there, shoot for ! WAR with those two, and put the $6m into the best starter I can find (it’s the difference, for example, between Alex Cora and Placido Polanco + the difference between Holliday and Bay in terms of AAV. Those are huge upgrades over what Bengie F Molina brings to the team.)
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Situational hitting is not a skill.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it definitely can be
Being able to move someone over from second to third on a groundout can most certainly be done better than others, whomever has better bat control I would think, etc. How this translates statistically or if it actually increases someone’s value would be foggy to me, I would doubt it does.
Much like I have been wondering whether Castillo’s willingness to take pitches for Reyes to steal on would increase Reyes’ WAR, or something of that nature.
Travis Hafner is made of gold
Moving someone over with a groundball?
That is not a skill, okay. A lot of people can do that,including pitchers.
That does not count into WAR; an out is an out
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Right
Run expectancy is lower with one out and a runner at second than no outs and a runner at first.
Well
I’m not talking about grounding out to make him move from first to second, that would probably just be a doubleplay. Is run expectancy higher with a runner at second and nobody out or a runner at third and nobody out?
And regardless of whether or not it is, it is still asked upon for people to do on a baseball team. I’m not arguing that it is valuable to do so, I’m arguing that a player with good bat control would be able to do it better than someone who doesn’t. Thus, it should be considered a skill. We spent all day working on it on my highschool team, there were definitely people that were better at it than others (I was not better).
Travis Hafner is made of gold
That's true
but it’s a managerial strategy (I assume you are talking about hit and run type scenarios) which are not statistically the sensible play, or at best neutral. Molina has to do that because he can’t get to first in time not to be out.
I'll answer my own question
And say that run expectancy is higher with a runner at second and nobody out rather than third and one out.
However, it is asked of people (apparently wrongly) and the ability to hit the ball to a particular part of the field on the ground should be considered a skill.
Travis Hafner is made of gold
It's hard to prove
After looking it up, I’m overestimating it.
http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/notes/clutch.html
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-color-of-clutch/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/clutch_skill_does_exist/
Bottom line is it does exist, but only 1 player in 3 will be better or worse than average by 3 runs in 600 PA. And, you would need a huge sample to identify which players those are, to the point that even Molina’s 4743 career PA isn’t enough to say. That is, the best estimate of his true clutch ability would still only be around 40% of what is observed in that sample.
So using the fangraphs “clutch” measure for example, where he has averaged +4 runs, you can really only estimate a talent of +1.6.
In that case I'm comfortable adding 0.16 WAR to what I expect from Molina going forward
and still saying he’s almost worthless.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
On Holliday
So is the idea suggested by Silva that if the Cardinals were to sign Holliday for 8/128, $16M/year, then the Mets should sign Bay for 5/80, an equal $16M/year? Because that’s incredibly stupid. Why wouldn’t they consider offering Holliday a contract at a higher average value for fewer years? I can see why the Mets wouldn’t want to go eight years, but if Bay is worth $16M/year, then Holliday is worth $18M or $20M – why not go 5/95 for Holliday first, rather than just give up on him and move on to an inferior player?
Or, offer him another year
Seriously, offer Holliday $16M for 9 years. It doesn’t matter if he’s worthless the last 2 years, it would still be a better buy than Bay at 4/$63M.
Agreed. Though consider that if Holliday takes 5/95 he's giving up the equivalent of
signing a (8/128 minus 5/95) = 3/33 contract starting in his age 35 season. If you further discount that 3/33 for inflation both monetary and contract there’s a decent chance he’ll do better than that five years from now. It’s hard to say, but it’s certainly worth a shot. I might even go 5/100, but that’s definitely pushing it.
Depends on the player. Is Holliday the type who’s not driven to play into his late 30s? St. Louis seems to have agreed with him. Would a few more bucks make the difference?
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
I would go 6/110 also
I would too. I would even throw an opt clause after 5, and throw in a club option for 7. At the very least, it would give you some leverage in dealing with Bay. However, I would not cross the $20M per year threashold, nor would I go and guarntee 8 years.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
If you offer Holliday 5/100
For him to take the StL offer (assuming all other factors being equal), he’d have to feel that he couldn’t get more than $28m total from 2015-2017, or basically $9m per year.
If you’re Holliday, seems hard to me to believe that you don’t think you can get that kind of money in five years, when you’re 35, especially given inflation and market vicissitudes (being at a down point now).
In other words, 5/100 would most likely make sense for him financially — and I’d do it if I’m the Mets too.
He has an opt out clause though...
so he has the ability to sign another contract in a few years + he has an insurance policy.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
20 per is a little much to me
with the Wilpons supposed frugalness I’d worry about what kind of effect it would have on our ability to sign/trade for pitchers, as well as resign Wright and Reyes.
If that's such a sure thing
If you’re that confident he’ll be worth that in 2015-2017, why shouldn’t the Mets lock him up at that price? Offer 8/133 and he has to be worth $11M/yr in those years. But that’s probably still not enough to choose the Mets over the Cardinals. He’s going to want a COLA to choose NY over St. Louis, so you probably have to beat it by 10%. Maybe 8/142 would put you in the running. Or 5/105, or 6/120.
I didn't say he's worth it at ages 35-37
I said I assume HE thinks he’d be able to get that kind of money at that point.
I wouldn’t go more than 5/100.
problem is Boras
Yeah, he might. But Boras knows damn well he likely won’t be, which is why he’s negotiating the 8 year deal rather than looking for 5 at a higher rate.
Holliday
is the best player on the open market, but far from one of the best players in baseball. The Front Office should punt on trying to compete this year and work toward 2011 now, when we’ll have a better idea of what we’ve got in guys like Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Jon Neise et al.
I just don’t see how throwing a lot of money and a lot of years at a guy who may wind up being our third or fourth best hitter is a prudent idea. We remember what he did in St. Louis and totally discard what he did in Oakland (not that it was bad, just mortal).
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Dec 15, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions
People "discard" what Holliday did in Oakland
because it’s a small sample size skewed by an awful first month. His performance for the season as a whole was right in line with his performance from 2006-08. The date in July when he was traded is a really arbitrary dividing line to use to make any kind of a point.
Yeah, but...
…even conceding that, I just don’t see how he’s worth an offer competitive with what St. Louis is talking about. That contract will start to look really ugly down the road.
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Dec 15, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm not crazy about 8 years
which is why I suggested a contract with a higher average annual value (which I think he will be worth for at least another four years) and fewer years at the back end.
by JoshNY on Dec 15, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
where's the Holliday cheer?
Holliday is the best player on the open market, but far from one of the best players in baseball.
Yeah, at that price, the Mets should maybe not punt, but try to field a competitive team with this season’s second tier agents/savvy planning (ha!), and wait til next winter to throw $$ around. Throwing winter $ around may be entertaining, but it comes with a hangover. The Cards offer seems to have sobered this board up a great deal from Holliday hysteria. At least that’s how it’s starting to look to me.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
You've been banging this drum for awhile
In my humble opinion, and I read most comments on this blog, there hasn’t been any “Holliday hysteria”, atleast the way you’ve portrayed it. He’s a good player and would be a fine addition to the team but not at a payroll crippling price. No one is going bonkers screaming to sign him at all costs.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Edit
*No one rational is screaming to sign him at all costs.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
i just like the sound of it
Holliday spirit. But I also like the word bonkers… I have just been surprised at the craving for Holliday punch around here, this bastion of reason and evidence based rumination…when perhaps chasing the big ticket item has not panned out for Omar or for us, and a more subtle less costly approach is warranted, particularly one that targets lots lotsa a pitching. I was in the camp that this team needed more offense LAST winter and I remember feeling lonely…now all the sudden power from the corner spots is prioritized… when this is essentially the same team…albeit one with a big injury ? floating over its head….One man’s raised eyebrow …is another man’s bonkers, I suppose, though to be fair, it’s hard to evaluate the mucho qualified statement “no one rational is screaming/going bonkers to sign him at all costs.” He’s good, but I’ll also be glad if it doesn’t work out. After Molina joins the club, I suppose…none of this will matter since we will all be waiting for 2011. For your pleasure, I kicked it… Cerrone style.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
The syntax is much appreciated
As is this:
One man’s raised eyebrow …is another man’s bonkers
by James Kannengieser on Dec 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
the only thing Omar does well
is chasing the big ticket item. I have no problem with him getting Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, & Santana, and I would love for him to get Holliday. His problems lie in other areas, unfortunately
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
that's true
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Dec 15, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
He has to recognize the item as being big ticket though
Other than Frankie he didn’t chase any of the big name free agents from last year, despite probably all of them being bigger/better than Frankie and despite Tex making too much sense to not even show interest. And so far this season he seems to have zoned in on Bay and never even offered Lackey a contract, despite the front office supposedly being torn between Bay and Lackey and as far as we know hasn’t shown any real interest in Holliday.
and he doesn't even do it that well.
Delgado wasn’t worth his contract(s). Pedro wasn’t worth his contract. Is ther one GM out there who now sign Santana to what’s left on his contract: 4/98.5 assuming you don’t exercise the 25 million dollar club option for 2014?
If your best thing really isn’t all that hot, maybe it’s time to find another profession.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
"Is there one GM out there who would now sign..."
Must…have…coffee…
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Name me a productive LFer who will reach free agency, not named Carl Crawford. Carl might not even see free agency.
You need a LFer. There will be pitching options available next year.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 15, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
He’s been valued well over $25mm per over the last few years, and the projection looks like he could be worth $26mm next year as well. Obviously, he shouldn’t get that in the contract, but $20mm for 5 would be a good idea, I think. Going that high for more years feels like it would end up like a Delgado-type deal where it doesn’t totally feel like a waste but isn’t too smart either. If he would accept that (who knows if he would), then it would be a good way to improve the team no matter what season- assuming the Mets want to spend at all. Beltran’s going to be risky with his knees in the last couple of years in this contract, which is maybe you don’t go past 5 years- and Holliday being a corner outfielder probably makes it even easier.
But an even more obvious move should be playing Pagan rather than Francoeur.
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
In a realistic world
We know that Omar’s job is on the line and the Wilpons need to sell tickets. So punting and planning for 2011 exclusively, is not a real option they will consider.
In other words, we know the FO will make some moves this offseason aimed at fielding a contender in 2010.
That said, I’d much rather Holliday at 5 years/100 than Bay-lina for 5 years/100 (ie, 5 years of Bay, and 3 of Molina). I fear we’re headed down the road of Bay-lina, or possibly even Mar-Bay-lina (with Jason Marquis our new #2).
Totally agree
I like Holliday, but 8 years? Screw that. No matter what management says, this team’s best chance is in 2011, not 2010.
by Mackey Sasser on Dec 15, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Olney on ESPN.com says the Cards are holding at 5 yrs
by Brooklyn Tar Heels on Dec 15, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
5 years = 8 years???
It’s probably all in how the offer is portrayed – e.g., 5 years guaranteed, plus 3 vesting years = 8 years.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 15, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'm leaning towards that
A lie by the Boras Spin machine.
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
Or..
Scott Boras doing his job better than most ML GMs do theirs.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Dec 15, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'll go 5 + 3
Each additional year vests with an MVP award won/8.0 WAR season achieved during the life of the contract.
BONG!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 15, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
"BONG!"
is what Boras would be hitting off of to accept that deal. :)
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
put two offers on the table
5/20 for Holliday and 4/16 for Bay and say first come first serve. Move on if they get better offers elsewhere.
apparently I'm the only one who thinks this is a good idea
by Mike Clemente on Dec 15, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
who cares
they’re not on the team…the other guy accepted. The only down side i can see, is possibly hurting your chances with Bay when he sees the significantly better offer MH is getting
by Mike Clemente on Dec 15, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
You can write up the offer to account for either contingency:
“This offer is good through Friday December Whatsit or until the offer we made to Jason Bay on December Whenever is accepted. Ties will be broken by whichever offer is agreed to through fax number etc etc.”
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
That would only be a problem
if we needed one or the other. In our current situation, I would be ecstatic if neither of them accepted the offer, and if those contract offers represent a fair assessment of their value, it’s better to have neither than to have either of them above that price point.
you wouldn’t want either to accept those contracts? They seem more than reasonable to me. Both guys have been worth 20 mil more than once in their careers.
by Mike Clemente on Dec 15, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't want either to accept those contracts
if it went above those numbers, at least in a vacuum. If it stays at those numbers, I wouldn’t want an acceptance simply b/c i want a visible failure from Omar to speed the path to his firing…
I just took out Amazin' from the library.
I’m diving into that and ignoring the 2010 season. It’s safer that way…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions
Doesn't look like anyone mentioned this
but Olney seems to think that the Cards are still only offering 5 years.
Mets should have picked up Juan Pierre
Dodgers have too many OFers, he can hit, his defense is good and he would get a lot of xbh’s at Citi. I could live with a Beltran/Frenchy/Pierre/Pagan rotation. But that was all contingent on signing Lackey. Now they obviouslty are gonna go get 1 of the 2 big boppers
The 2003 Marlins
Would be proud of Castillo and Pierre in the same place.
Travis Hafner is made of gold
Yeah
what we really need is a corner outfielder with an 85 career OPS+, because one corner OF who isn’t a great hitter isn’t enough for this team to be saddled with.
Well, if it meant trading one bad contract for another (Castillo or Perez)
getting back a career .300 hitter who could steal 40 bags and play good LF and get you 10-15 triples, I wouldn’t hate it.
But it’s not gonna happen anyway. Lets go throw the world at Bay who doesn’t fit our ballpark at all!
Pierre
A) cannot necessarily be counted on to steal 40 bases, and his efficiency has been trending downward (81% in 2007, 77% in 2008, 71% in 2009).
B) has not had 10 triples in any of the last three seasons, despite the spacious outfield in Dodger Stadium.
C) has a career SLG of .372, despite decent numbers of triples from 2004-2006, because he has very little real power, especially for a corner outfielder (career ISO .072 is considerably worse than, say, Angel Pagan, and just barely better than Luis Castillo; 13 career home runs are hardly going to cure the lack of power in the Mets lineup).
D) will make $10M in 2010 and $8.5M in 2011 for that amount of productivity.
Dodgers weren't willing to
I think the Dodgers were only willing to do that if it got them some salary relief.
I wouldn’t want to do it unless it was about salary neutral.
I wouldn’t want Pierre starting.
Could it be true...
…that we’re close to signing Igarashi, even though he’s not a catcher?
Damned clever, these Birdnals of St. Louis
8/128 sounds like a lot, but with a 4% inflation rate and a 10% mlb contract inflation rate that’s a pittance by 2017.
They get their offer out front, they take the advantage of pushing the market before some other GMs (ahem) are ready to bid, and perhaps the offer is good for five days meaning Holliday may take it rather than fart around for three months hoping for 8/132. Oh, and if they don’t get him there’s no public relations problem with their fans. After all, it sure looks like a helluvan offer.
kind of like the Beltran deal? Or Santana?
Those were actually pretty good contracts, compared to what similar players got
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Dec 15, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds about right,
though with the market dropping last year Beltran hasn’t become some insane bargain fwiw I’m very happy we got him).
How would you guys compare
the prospects the Phillies gave up versus the ones they got? I know Drabek is supposed to be potentially good, but what about the rest?
I don't know about Saunders
but Aumont is a high risk high reward guy. If he can stick as a starter, and there’s a lot of concerns about whether he can, he apparently has front-end of the rotation upside.
That's what I've heard with the caveat that his arm could blow up any time.
Certainly better than getting a couple of C prospects who have shots at maybe being backups one day.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 15, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
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