OBP does not = runs, RBI do = runs.
That ever astute comment comes from a commenter on Metsblog, responding to Matt Cerrone's post of his interview with Jeff Francouer. It's an amazing accomplishment to make Mr. Francouer sound intelleigent by comparison, especially when he says things like this:
Well, I think you obviously want to do both. But, you look at a guy that I played with in Atlanta this year, Garrett Anderson, who’s had a heck-of-a career and his OBP isn’t that great. I think you learn as you go. I’m still 25 and I’m learning different things, learning the strikezone and hopefully I will continue to get better at that; but, at the same time, I’m not going up there thinking to walk, thinking about this or that, if there is a guy on second or third I’m gonna try to drive him in – that’s my first priority. Whether I ground out or fly out or whatever, I want to get him in and do my best to help the team. I think as you learn more you’re OBP goes up; but, I think for me, that’s not something I just think about. I know to a lot of statistical people OBP seems to be a huge thing… 15 to 20 years ago it wasn’t a big deal… and all of a sudden it is.
It's a bit petty to write an entire fanpost - especially my first one - about a commenter on another site, but this just struck me as the exemplification of all that is wrong with the anti-SABER bias. Everyone reading this understands what the commenter's logical fallacy is, but it's a point that needs to be emphasized. If people don't get on base, then there are drastically fewer opportunities for a player to get RBI unless they hit a ton of sole homeruns. Therefore, OBP most certainly does = runs, which in turn = wins. It's not that complicated a concept, and I don't think one has to be particularly saber-friendly to appreciate it.
As for Francouer's comments, as has been pointed out on the main page, a player's lack of understanding of sabermetrics is not the worst thing, but Francouer's utter lack of concern about the importance of getting on base should raise some alarm bells. The idea that it not the "role" of a 5th or 6th place hitter to get on base is completely ludicrous. Certainly his value comes from his ability to drive in runs, but now you're placing an extra burden on the top of the lineup to get on base and make some noise if the bottom of the lineup lacks the ability to get on base at a decent clip. Not all offense in baseball stems from the 1-4 positions in the lineup. How often do we see rallies in the National League started when the bottom of the lineup pieces together a few hits?
So if Francouer doesn't appreciate the importance of getting on base, then he's signalling that he has no intention of changing his approach at the plate. That would be fine if he were - what's the word I'm looking for? - oh, right, good. But while he might impress the HittheWeightsZeile's of the world, he's costing the Mets games by his lack of ability to get on base at an appreciably higher clip than Bengie Molina. But hey, it's not like both those guys are going to be on the same team next year, so no big whoop.
Sigh.
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51 comments
Comments
I wonder what effect it would have if the FO sat him down and simply demonstrated
to him why OBP matters, and in fact why it’s the most important stat in the game.
I know some guys just won’t get it, and will never get it, but it’s not terribly complicated. If the FO brought in five guys and a blackboard, and they explained the concept to Francoeur and answered all of his questions and objections, do you think he’d understand?
I have no idea if he has the ability to change his approach at the plate, but understanding why walks and patience are important are what may lead a hitter to want to change his approach.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 17, 2009 9:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Didn't the A's try to instill
better discipline in their minor leagues but found that it’s not a skill that can’t really be acquired according to Moneyball? Do I remember that correctly? Of course there are exceptions such as older players become more selective as they age ala Cora or younger players like Reyes but I think at this point Jeff is who we think his is and if his defensive number bounce back and some of that power returns he can be a useful player in his own old mold. And oh yeah, Free Ryan Church.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
by Sokojoe on Dec 17, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have the same recollection.
I don’t particularly expect most ballplayers to be able to learn patience, particularly once they’re in the majors or the high minors, but those who might be able to add this skill to their repetoire probably first have to be convinced of the virtue of the approach.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 17, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would start with "Every time you swing at a pitch outside the zone, the pitcher makes you look like a fool"
Even if he doesn’t improve his walk rate by much, if he can improve his pitch recognition, at least he is going to swing at pitches inside the zone.
by Michkin on Dec 18, 2009 6:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People can learn it
Look at someone like Figgins, or Hunter, both having career high years in BBs this past year. Perhaps teaching baseball players in a scholarly way is not the best option, maybe it’s gotta be done in clubhouse (referencing Abreu) or something in order for them to realize it will actually make them better at baseball rather than the “statsy scientists trying to tell the jocks how to do their jobs” point of view someone like Francoeur may take.
Travis Hafner is made of gold
by Super Mario on Dec 18, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, I pointed out that there are exceptions
but I believe that even if you try to teach or explain the value of discipline, it does little to influence the majority of batters behavior. I mean it’s hard to think about much anything in the .458 seconds it takes a ball to reach home plate. I think if Frenchy was able to better use the plate discipline there would have been better signs out there.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
by Sokojoe on Dec 18, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is his defensive numbers apparently fell off
Cause he put on a bunch of muscle trying to become a better slugger, so unless someone gets him to undo that somehow I imagine it’s unlikely his defensive numbers will bounce back.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully, the muscle story is just something
trying to link causation to the past two years poor UZR numbers, which were hopefully a statisical fluke and nothing more. Ya gotta believe.
the number one issue facing the Mets is finding that one guy who’s going to say "get on my shoulders and ride me to the championship."
by Sokojoe on Dec 18, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he just wants to lead the team in RBI
and wants to decrease the chance of anyone driving him in.
by t agee on Dec 18, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this made me burst out laughing for like 5 minutes
but im also slightly intoxicated so don’t let it go to your head
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Basically, I'm luke warm regarding Francoeur.
He seems like a nice guy, and regardless of how you feel about him, it can’t be denied that the team would have done a bit worse without him than it did with him.
My dislike vis-a-vis Francoeur stems from his stubborn refusal to want to change his approach at the plate, as mentioned above. That’s fine that, when you go up to the plate with someone at third, you don’t necessarily think about drawing a walk so much as you do driving them in. That doesn’t give you a free pass to swing wildly at balls in and out of the strike zone, though. I remember watching an AB against him before he was traded to us, and Ron basically said something to the effect of ‘Francoeur, you can see it in his eyes, wants to go up there and hit a home run every time. Guys like [whoever the pitcher was at the time] can nibble at the strike zone, and get Francoeur to get himself out’.
His public disdain for the OBP stat, and for many ‘advanced stats’ in general (and mind you, I’m new to this, and don’t know what half of them mean) is frustrating. Basically, in shunning them, he’s willfully ignoring the fact that he has an outlet to transform his game, and make himself a better player. That he can or can’t change his approach is irrelevant- it’s that he, almost smugly, as it’s come off, brushes off such things as inconsequential and “beneath him”.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 17, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Francoeur has no approach at the plate
He’s a pure hacker. Not only no pitch recognition, but no ability to even think of what pitch might be coming. Worthless in pretty much any spot in a lineup.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Dec 17, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is Francoeur's future after this season?
Realistically this is his last shot at keeping hi ML career. Next season should be F-Marts first full season in the majors and if we sign Bay or Holliday, Frenchy is surplus to requirements. So he better look at his approach to hitting or he willing be a 4th outfielder in pittsburgh or worse.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You forget he plays for the mets
We’ll sign him to a 6 year contract and trade F-mart for a back up catcher.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This "we'll trade him for a back up catcher" meme is the AA version of the DBRays "we'll trade him for a reliever".
by Michkin on Dec 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We won't actually trade him for a back up catcher
We’ll trade him for Derek Jeter once Jose’s laziness gets him out of the league.
Him and David Wright, since y’know we wouldn’t want Wright’s losernish to rub off on a winner like Jeter.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or Scott Kazmir
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Dec 18, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What's Francoeur's future?
Depends on how he does this season, I guess. He led in plenty of offensive categories with the team this year, but that’s not saying much. On a fully healthy team, would ten +/-home runs from a corner outfield position really cut it?
Basically, I think that he’s in no danger of being cut from the Majors anytime soon- we probably won’t retain his services next season, but there’s always clubs like Pittsburgh to go play on.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 18, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why would Pittsburgh want him?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because they go through players like Bengie Molina goes through buffalo wings.
With the way things seem perennially horrible for them, he’d be their best player…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 18, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They seem to be turning things around now
And they have a progressive front office, I think we’d be more likely to sign Frenchy to an extension than they would be to pick him up.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget Francouer's pitiful "blog"
written by a hack intern and shilling Delta in every entry.
It’s an excellent reason to disdain Francouer.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 19, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah. That gives him character.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 19, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean it's a hack intern
then that definitely should not be a reason to hate Frenchy.
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
by meigs1414 on Dec 19, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Personality wise, Francouer seems like a good guy
So I think Sean raises an interesting question. I don’t think he’s completely unwilling to learn, I just doubt anyone within the organization really has a desire to set him down to teach him the importance of taking a walk or two.
by dcmetsfan on Dec 17, 2009 9:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
See, that I don't buy. For two reasons:
(A) That goes with the assumption that no one on the Braves emphasized the importance of walking. While it certainly is possible, that doesn’t seem likely to me, because of that really bad season Francoeur had.
(B) That goes with the assumption that he needs someone to sit down with him and explain to him why walking more is a good thing, and plate discipline. At the Major League level, he should understand why walking more is generally a good thing, and he should be skilled enough to work on plate discipline on his own, or, at least, without anyone telling him to. This makes me think of a student, or someone like that, who doesn’t do whatever implied reading he needs to do because his teacher didn’t explicitly tell him.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 17, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Francoeur does seem like the slow student who doesn't really get it.
I’d be amazed if the Braves ever sat down with him, went over the math, and REALLY persuaded him of the value of a walk.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 17, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah like Brooklyn Mets fan said
I don’t understand how he could go through a minor league system without anyone ever attemptng to explain that to him. And it’s not like the braves are like a team like the angels, who apparently were teaching all their minor leaguers to swing away like guerro, they seem to have a relatively progressive front office.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 17, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Angels are succesful with that model though.
by Sam Page on Dec 17, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are they?
Supposedly Scioscia,(sp?) thinks its a problem and is trying to change it throughout the organization.
But really my point wasn’t that it was bad so much as to say their are organizations who do that but the Braves don’t seem to be one of them.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 17, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of OBP Jesus,
the Yankees just signed (and the Mets didn’t) Nick Johnson for the reasonable prices of 1/5.5.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 17, 2009 11:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
good lord.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Dec 17, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my god
why don’t we have a first baseman yet. No offense to Murph, but we need a first baseman with a bat, and I just don’t think he fills the role.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 18, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree but apparently
“he’s locked into first base”
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well at least he can hold the position defensively
thats half the battle… right?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 18, 2009 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Nick isn't a great RBI man like our own Mr. Jeff is
Mets win!!
by James Kannengieser on Dec 18, 2009 2:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"HittheWeightsZeile of the world"
Oddly enough, the first thing that I remember when I think of Todd Zeile was how he took the first pitch of almost every single at-bat.
Quite a contrast when I see that Franceour led the league in first swing pitch percentage.
by GoReyesGo on Dec 18, 2009 6:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does make me curious as to what the results would be if Jerry told Frenchy
simply to lay off the first pitch, no exceptions, starting in April. That at least solves the problem of whether or not he has the skills to recognize balls versus strikes. I don’t have Francouer’s numbers for when he’s 0-1 or 1-0, but I doubt there are too many pitchers who still throw him a first pitch strike—so we can probably look primarily at how he hits on a 1-0 count to see if that would be a good strategy. Let the pitchers catch up to him for a change.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 19, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HA
no way – I played baseball in high school with “hittheweightszeile” – can’t believe he inspired a fanpost over here haha. Well, maybe I can believe it (I’ve commented on a few of his Mets-related statuses on Facebook that I disagreed with), but it’s still kinda weird.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Dec 19, 2009 6:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also, funny thing
I was probably the least patient hitter in high school baseball history – I think I walked twice in four years. I don’t really remember if hittheweightszeile (I won’t reveal his real name) was a patient hitter or not, but he was definitely better than me at the plate. Funny that I’m the one who embraces sabermetrics.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Dec 19, 2009 6:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did johnson
really sign for only 5.5 and 1 year? How in the hell did we not make this deal (with a whole buncha GP incentives tacked on)??
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Dec 18, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
at 1 year 5.5 mil he would have been perfect to keep 1b warm for Ike
but given last years string of injuries, I think the Mets are very gunshy of anybody with a history of injuries this offseason. Thats my best guess as to why we weren’t more seriously considering him (or a few other available 1b options)
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 18, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like he took a cut price deal to return to the Yankees.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah that makes a bit more sense
thats dirt cheap relatively speaking
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 18, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So if I understand your post correctly...
You are “pro-sabermetrics”, and “anti-Francoeur”.
In other news, I’m speaking at an NRA convention next month, where I’m going to announce that I’m “pro-gun”.
by Mex_17 on Dec 18, 2009 9:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That makes no sense.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Dec 18, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do believe there's a healthy dose of both 'sarcasm' and 'duh' mixed in there.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 18, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure you understand at all
He’s not saying he’s anti-Frenchy, he’s merely pointing out the flaws in a mode of thought that seems to be rampant. I don’t think anyone is anti-Frenchy, they’re anti-his approach/understanding of the game which likely hinders his ability to ever tap into his raw talent.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 18, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
People mix up dislike of players as human beings with dislike of players for the dumb things they say or do. Francoeur consistently says and does dumbass things and it’s annoying.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 21, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we'll see if you're still saying that
when his country music career takes off!
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 21, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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