Harang Vs Arroyo
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 11:53 AM EST
Email
PrintIt appears the Mets and Reds are at least discussing a trade to bring Bronson Arroyo to the Mets. I like this idea more than bringing in his stablemate Aaron Harang.
From SBnation scouting reports:
Harang Pros: He uses his size to his advantage and is fairly durable, able to pitch effectively beyond the fifth inning. Can strike batters out with aplomb.
Arroyo pros: He's an economical pitcher who locates his pitches well. Right-handed hitters find him particularly tough.
Harang Cons: Has trouble getting ahead in the count and struggles against right-handed hitters. Injuries are also a concern moving forward.
Arroyo Cons: Needs to work on his ability to pitch beyond the sixth inning and isn't as effective from the stretch with runners on.
I think most of us here agree that wins are not the way to rate a pitcher. Many other stats give a better representation of a pitchers ability. However, Harang has been 12-31 in the last two seasons and this is troubling.
Harang has not been the same pitcher he was in 06-07. In '06 Harang threw 234 innings and followed that in '07 with 231 innings. These are not crazy high numbers, he was effective and threw 103.3 pitches per outing. From then on however, things have gone downhill. '08 and '09 saw him throw less innings but throw similar numbers of pitches per inning. Is he less able to put a batter away? It would appear so.
Simply put, he is becoming less able to put away hitters and has to throw more to get through an inning. This might be because of injury due to throwing so many innings in '06 and '07. Better stat heads will be able to argue using more advanced peripherals.
Arroyo has pitched over 200 innings consistently since 2005 and while the number of walks per outing has remained steady, his strikeouts have diminished 184k in 06 down to 127k last season.
Both seems to be on very slow downward trends. So who is the better catch?
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
52 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would definitely say Harang
for several reason. 1) Harang is a year younger which I actually was surprised about. 2) Has better strikeout numbers even in his down year last year than Arroyo. 3) Better control. 4) Has better FIP and XFIP numbers for the past few years. 4) Has more upside than Arroyo 5) Was unlucky last year where Arroyo was a bit lucky.
wow you are right
for some reason I thought Harang was a few years older. Seems strange to me that Arroyo is older.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Yup. Harang is much better in the more repeatable stats, SO and BB. And much better FB, and better stuff generally. Arroyo is more of a Garland type, weak FB, which he only throws 45% of the time, and it still gets knocked around. Needs to have 5 pitches to mix. Aroyo probably is better on balls in play, despite being less of a fly ball pitcher, but last year was still something of a fluke.
And I don’t think Harang had any arm issues last year. The only issue was arm soreness in 2008, and that was after he was clearly overworked/misused, when Dusty threw him out there for 63 piches in relief between starts. I would ignore 2008 and say it looks like Harang has pretty much recovered.
good idea for a post
i was actually just making this comparison in my head last night.
i basically decided that in terms of value, they’re nearly identical. both righties, similar age, similar salary in 2010 ($11-12M) and both can be bought out for $2M in 2011. and in terms of performance, you can’t reasonably project that one will be much better than the other going forward. based on the past 3 seasons it’s fair to expect an era right around 4 from both of them.
the big difference though is in what you value. arroyo is the more stable, conservative option; he’s pitched 200+ innings the last 5 years running while posting decent numbers and looks to be going strong at a decent though not great level. harang is the riskier, higher upside option; though he’s run into injuries the last 2 seasons, he’s still thrown a good amount of innings and coming into ‘08 he’d posted the straight 4+ WAR seasons though one could definitely see his last 2 seasons as the beginning of a decline.
to me, omar wants more stable options at this point (following last season) so i think he prefers arroyo. i personally take the risk with harang, considering they’re both only under contract for 1 year.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 18, 2009 12:14 PM EST reply actions
Harang definitely has injury concerns.
Arroyo’s strikeout rate is concerning though. Still, i think a #2 being paid $12mil needs to throw 200 innings, I don’t know if Harang is going to be capable of this.
“good idea for a post” -Thanks, always appreciate a heads up.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I dont think Arroyo is a numbr 2 though
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Nice summation, rob.
Other than Lackey there isn’t a number 2 pitcher available, and after last seasons crash-and-burn from the rotation I’m valuing durability above upside. I’d love to see what this team can do without being crippled by health issues and sinkholes on the roster, and adding Arroyo is the better option of the two towards doing that, imo.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 19, 2009 2:53 AM EST up reply actions
But Arroyo isn't a number 2
He’ll basically give you the same production you could expect from Garland or Marquis, and possibly less than what you could expect from Piniero or Marquis, and at the same price, money wise, as they’ll probably get, so trading anything of value for him isn’t really worth it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Then its Piniero or Marquis?
i guess over the next 2 seasons the FA’s will be cheaper. But are they for real?
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 19, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
but
arroyo comes in for only 1 season, tiding us over until next year’s pitching rich FA class while garland, maquis, pineiro, etc will all be asking for multi-year deals, some as many as 4 seasons.
if it signing pineiro means we can’t make a play for webb or lee, no thanks. i’ll take arroyo even if he does cost pagan.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 19, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Well at this point there's no reason to think any of them might get multi year deals
the market for them isn’t exactly buzzing
And even if they end up signing for a multi year deal I doubt any of them would get more than Wolf, and I can’t imagine the difference between what they get and Arroyos 2010 contract plus his 2011 buyout is going to be enough to stop them from bidding on Lee/Webb.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Brewers jumped too early on Wolf
It is a slooooooow market it seems and GM’s are taking their time to sign guys. Wolf was probably the #2 pitcher on the market but I have to think he would have come cheaper and for less years had they waited. yes, the Mets might have pounced but then again…
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 20, 2009 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think they jumped too early at all
Considering how fast Penny, and Harden signed too. Those two and Wolf are much better options than whats left now IMO.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I have no problem with that statement.
Arroyo’s a solid, middle of the rotation guy.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 20, 2009 4:54 AM EST up reply actions
I mean, any other Reds pitcher?
Or just the ones that might be available? I would like to have Volquez over the other two but I would assume he’s not available.
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
Harang? or is it Ha-rag, another injury prone guy on the pitching staff,
maybe for Castillo straight up, with the reds sending some money.
won't be looking for any $$$$ return from Cinncy. They want to dump contracts and free payroll.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
texas, l.a., and toronto sent money in their deals....reportedly 9m,9+, 6, respectively.
what’s wrong for asking for some money, even if it’s only a couple of mill. And thanks for taking Castillo. Harang 12 mil plus buy out option / Castillo 12 mil for 2years.
Because Harang has way more value than Castillo
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I know that, but desperate times call for desperate measures
and Cincy is desperate,….
Dont see them sending any greenbacks our way OR accepting Castillo
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Because they'd be better off just giving him to another team for nothing
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
the better question is what will they want back?
if it’s strictly one of the pitchers, not any bigger deals including phillips and/or cordero, what will they ask for considering it’s a straight salary dump?
seeing how it’s a team so desperate to shed salary and 2 somewhat flawed pitchers who are owed $11M and $12M, i don’t see how they can ask for very much. sounds like in their talks w/ the dodgers they wanted major league level players who were cheap; probably 4th OF, bench type guys or young relievers.
to me, that means they look at our team and ask for parnell or pagan. i definitely don’t give parnell, i’d try to keep pagan so just like i wrote in my offseason plan, i’d offer nick evans to fulfill that type player and throw in a mediocre minor league arm like michael antonini or dylan owen.
If we're taking on the full 12-24 million
depending on who we trade for, I don’t think there’s even any reason to give up players like Parnell or Pagan. When Toronto traded Rios, who IMO was more worth his contract than Arroyo at least, they didn’t get any young/cheap pieces back did they? It was a straight salary dump. If the trade ends up being for just Arroyo I don’t see any reason we should have to give valuable pieces back, considering we could get the same players on the market for the same price without giving up anything.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
problem with that is
the contract situations are nothing alike. rios is in no way in a better situation contractually than either arroyo or harang. the pitchers are both under contract for 1 more season at 11-12M w/ buyouts after 2010. rios is owed $12M guaranteed until 2014. even if you like rios better (which is questionable in itself), the contracts are obviously very different.
but even if they were more similar, an average pitcher (which i consider both arroyo and harang to be) gets a lot more than an average hitter (which i consider rios to be) on the open market.
currently, some very average pitching free agents (like marquis or pineiro) are very likely to receive at least 3 year deals at probably $10M/yr at least. look at randy wolf’s contract from the brewers. i think the reds will probably try to leverage the market’s desperation for pitching, especially dependable (albeit medicore) pitching and try to get at least something of value back.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 18, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Would the fact they're only under contract for one more season help or hurt Cincy though
Since the team that’s getting them is only getting their production for one year should they be expected to give up someones who’s going to be under team control for years?
Plus I wouldn’t say Rios is an average hitter, he was awful last year but he’s been way above average 3 of the last 3 years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
yeah
i’ve always been low on rios.
but as far as the reds pitchers, the fact that you have the flexibility to hold them for either a year and then move onto someone else next winter or if they really pitch well you can pick up their option for 2011 seems like a strength to me. but only so much that they can ask for 4th outfielders, relievers, etc.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 18, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
You don’t give up real value for Arroyo or Harang. It wouldn’t startle me to see Cincy throw in $2m on a deal in order to get a decent prospect, but otherwise I don’t see them getting a B+ prospect or a Pagan-type player.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 19, 2009 2:56 AM EST up reply actions
It is debatable if Rios is more worth his contract than Arroyo
WAR has rios at -.1 last year and Arroyo 1.8. Arroyo could be a 2-3 WAR pitcher. Rios could be a 5 WAR player. Interestingly for Rios his D went from 23.8 runs to -6.0 in one season. I wonder what could make that happen?
Was'nt Rios just a release. .and Chicago picked him up on waivers without any compensation?
by the way the Red Sox had put Manny on waivers way back in about ‘04-05 and no one picked him up, too much money. How about putting Luis on waivers and see if anyone bites and picks him up, too much money though and I’d guess Omar would’nt want to embrass Castillo.
I thought he was traded for a ptbnl or something
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
He was traded after the trade deadline after being put on waivers i believe
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
nah
he was placed on waivers after the trade deadline. if he had cleared they would have tried to trade him for something but the sox claimed him. the jays could have pulled him back but chose to just let him go for nothing, probably realizing that even if he had cleared they wouldn’t get much back in any trade.
by Rob Castellano on Dec 18, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
I am surprised at the amount of votes for Harang
I thought the breakdown would come to around 50/50 or even a little more for Arroyo.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 18, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions
arroyos been more reliable
but he’s been pretty medicore, more than likely he’ll just give us what we could expect from perez, for the same cost, or a healthy maine for like 4+ times the cost. Which isn’t bad, but not necessarily better than what can be found on the free agent market for a similar price, in dollars. If we’re looking at much more than a straight salary dump type trade, like if they want actual pieces/prospects back, we’d probably be better off trying to sign one of Piniero, Marquis, or Garland to a one year deal. We might even be able to sign one of them for cheaper.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I voted for Arroyo
I know Harang’s the better pitcher, but I’m worried about taking on another pitcher with an injury history. If we do that, I’d prefer we do it with an FA like Sheets, where we can at least offer an incentive-laden deal, thus minimizing the risk we take on in the trade.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 18, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
And if Sheets is on a one year deal and walks we get a nice draft pick.
Yeah i like the Sheets idea. Cheap, lots of upside and plenty of potential left. Injuries make him a big risk though.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 19, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
The only problem
… is that this is so obviously a good move that several other teams seem to like the idea of it. Unless he strongly prefers living in NYC— which seems doubtful, judging from where he chooses to spend his non-baseball time— what’s the hook that compels him to come here, while still minimizing risk? (Through-the-roof incentives is the only idea I’ve got.)
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 19, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
From earlier threads a lot of people think Harang is still the pitcher he was from 2005 through 2007
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 19, 2009 2:58 AM EST up reply actions
Well he's been that good as recently as 2008
and I just don’t think Arroyo is better than Marquis/Garland/Piniero, so if he’s going to cost more it wouldn’t make sense to trade for him.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Harang? He clearly took a giant step backwards in 2008
His FIP jumped by a full run, his HR rate soared, and he gave up 205 hits in 184 innings versus 213 hits in 231 innings in 2007. Oh—and he was less durable in 2008. He improved slightly in 2009 versus 2008, but his durability continued to fall. Harang may have very little left. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2009 was his last decent year.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 20, 2009 5:17 AM EST up reply actions
I think Harang had a down year in 2008
and an unlucky one last year. I’m too lazy right now to get the numbers to back this up so feel free to think I’m a jackass who’s making things up to suit my own purposes until I unlazy myself.
"I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?"
He was injured in 2008, me thinks.
Read this
That, along with a league worst .339 BABIP in 09, leads me to believe he is an excellent buy low candidate.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I should say I don't expect him to be a 4 WAR player or anything
But I think he has a much better chance of being a 2.5+ WAR player than Arroyo, who i think at best will be like 2.0 WAR or something.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
As for whether Arroyo is worth picking up
if you think he’s in a tier with Piniero, Marquis, and Garland for me it would depend on the dollars and years those guys are getting, and if Cincy is chipping in anything on salary. If other pitchers of his ilk are getting 3/33 in a thin pitching market I’d much rather get Arroyo for the one year (with the club option) than commit to three years just to save a few bucks on the AAV.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 20, 2009 5:21 AM EST up reply actions
The thing is I don't see any reason to think they'll get 3/33
considering the market seems to have no interest in them at this point and that the superior pitchers, Harden, Wolf and Penny didnt get near that. The biggest contract was Wolf’s 9 million per and I don’t see any reason why any of them would even get that, especially considering there seems to be zero interest in them right now.
and yeah my mistake on harang I meant to say he was as good as that as recently as last year. His FIP was down to 4.14 and his xFIP as 3.95
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
hell, lets get em both
they blow enough games to fit our profile
Self-proclaimed president of the Pat White and Brian Hartline fan club.
No hating on Jay Fiedler, please.
Official Back-Up Phinsider LOL'er.
The one and only "ho-nerd"
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
