3 Way Trade I Thought Of, What Do You Think?

The most dangerous slugger on one of the nation’s top hitting college teams, Alonso has produced consistent offensive numbers for Miami in each of his three years. As a freshman he led the team with 69 RBIs, leading the Hurricanes to the College World Series. As a sophomore, he led the Atlantic Coast Conference with 18 home runs, and finished the season with a .376 batting average. A native of Cuba, Alonso came to America at age 9. He was drafted out of Coral Gables (Fla.) High in the 16th round by the Twins in 2005. Alonso has always hit for average and power, and he is considered one of the most professional hitters in this year’s draft. Blessed with superior plate discipline, Alonso has a great strikeout-to-walk ratio and has an advanced approach. He swings lefthanded and has power to all fields, making consistent contact. In the field, Alonso is limited to first base but plays the position well. He is a below-average runner with adequate arm strength, but he should be an above-average defender. Alonso’s professionalism and makeup are both strengths as well, making him a safe pick to reach the major leagues.

Plus the case can be made the Francoeur is not that much worse than Ethier. He is worse, but not “not nearly as good as Ethier” as you put it.

And a Top 20 middle infield prospect. And that’s being pretty conservative about Mejia and Havens. The combined surplus value, according to Victor Wang’s prospect valuation research (summarized here), is in the neighborhood of $30 million-$35 million. Even if you assume the worst for Francoeur and Castillo, as long as Francoeur isn’t extended, their combined surplus value is no worse than about -$7 million. So by the most conservative estimates, the Mets are giving up about $23 million in surplus value.

In return, they get Brandon Phillips, under team control for three more years and about $30 million, and a guy who we can estimate as being worth about $15 million per year x 3 years =$45 million, so that’s $15 million surplus value. Meanwhile, Aaron Harang, who makes about $25 million if his option is picked up, $14.5 mil if it doesn’t, figures to be worth almost exactly $25 million in production value if he performs well enough to get his option activated, and will be worth substantially less than $14.5 million if his option is not activated. So we can, even being a bit optimistic, assuming his surplus value is pretty close to 0. Bellasario, a decent but unspectacular reliever, figures to be worth about $3-3.5 million on average over the next five years, and after two years his contract will escalate in arbitration, or if things go poorly, he’ll get non-tendered. So optimistically, we can say he’ll be worth about $3 million surplus over the next two seasons, and then about $1 million surplus (on average) over the subsequent three seasons. That would give him a $9 million surplus value, for a total package of $24 million surplus value.

To summarize, the most pessimistic take on the Mets package values it at $23 million, and it could be closer to $30 or $35 million in surplus value. Meanwhile, a streamlined or even slightly optimistic view of the Reds package, unless you want to somehow believe Harang can correct his issues from the last two years (pretty much impossible to project without more relevant information) is worth $24 million. So no, this is not the Mets “making out like bandits”. Its not even a GREAT deal for them, its solid, and definitely helps in the short term, but it absolutely kills them in the long term by dealing away two very good prospects and one player who is cost controlled and going year to year, meaning if he fails, there’s no commitment (Francoeur) and taking on two players who are guaranteed quite a bit more money regardless of performance.

Harang has an option for 2011 and Phillips has an option for 2012.

Elaborate?

Last 3 years of UZR:

Hudson: 0.5, -5.1, -3.3.
Phillips: 14.7, 11.3, 6.9

I think the mets are giving up way too much in this

Phillips has a ton of value. Harang at one year and 15 million has some moderate value, espescially after Garland, Piniero, and Marquis sign. Alonso is a very good prospect. All they can get for that is Ethier, Castillo (who is the least valuable piece of this deal), and Havens (who is probably a step down from Alonso at this point)?

Doesn’t the top pitcher in our farm system and the top hitter in the Reds farmsystem make up for this degrade?

Anyway, I saw this coming which is why I suggested we give them money.

Smoak and Feliz for Johnson, so I don’t think Meija and Havens come close to getting it down. maybe if you throw in Holt Davis and Tejada too.