FanPost

Mets vs Red Sox: a 2010 lineup projection and comparison



A comparison between the Mets and Red Sox readily suggests itself. Both are big market teams able to afford payrolls in the $130 to $150 million range. Here are their current lineups for 2010 along with Bill James's projected wRAA for each starting position player.  (wRAA=Runs Above Average based on wOBA. A good definition of wRAA can be had on this webpage: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whats-new-at-fangraphs/)

 

The 2010 New York Mets current lineup (assuming they add Bengie Molina) with James's projections:

ss Reyes 13.5 in 746 PAs
2b Castillo -4.5 523
cf Beltran 25.0 598
3b Wright 35.2 685
rf Francoeur -2.2 618
lf Pagan -0.4 361
1b Murphy -4.8 568
(James projects Murphy for only 296 PAs in 2010 so I'm using Murphy's 2009 stats)
c Molina -8.6 545

Total: 53.2 wRAA

The 2010 Boston Red Sox, also using James's projections as compiled by Paxton Crawford Ranch:

Ellsbury cf 14.8
Pedroia 2b 23
VMart c 20.7
Youk 3b 28.5
Drew rf 22.9
Cameron lf 0.6
Ortiz dh 24.7
Scutaro ss -1.4
Kotchman 1b 0.9

Total: 137.7 wRAA

In other words--this is how bad it is--even after subtracting Ortiz at DH the Mets would have to add another Wright and another Beltran for 2010 to match the Red Sox lineup.

James projects Jason Bay at around 27.0 wRAA in 2010. That closes almost half the gap between the two teams. There's no way the Mets come close to the Red Sox's pitching, though. To put it another way, if the Mets signed both Jason Bay and Matt Holliday they'd still be way behind their Boston counterparts.

It's going to be a long, long season.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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