ScoutingTheSally (Familia vs Allen)

You’re kidding right! Minor League ball and you’re uring tRA+ etc. Come on man! Have you ever played the game at the pro level?

How about a guy that can throw a 3rd pitch for a strike and fool a hitter! How about a pitching coach that says, don’t throw a FB behind in a count for the first 3 innings? It’s like the leadoff hitter that is told to take as many pitches as possible to build up the pitch count.

We’re talking pure and projected stuff from the arm and the ability to get outs of guys who are actually going to make it to the big leagues.

Now, there is no way to isolate and it would take hours and months to compile data like they do in the majors, but I’m telling you don’t use stats on minor league pitchers who are 19 in Low-A ball. They mean squat. Now, if the guy is getting the crap beat out of him, like a Brad Hand did this year from the Greenboro, then you have to look at the stats. Especially since he was a 2nd rounder that was getting the crap knocked out of him. At some point you have to show some sort of ability to get through a couple innings without getting whacked around. Hand doesn’t have it and they rushed the kid way too fast.

or proves that statistics like FIP are meaningless for minor leaguers. FIP has nothing to do with the official scorer. Its based entirely on true outcomes (strikeout, walk, home run, ball in play, none of which are judged by the official scorer in any significant way). I said nothing about error totals or defense. And as for 1. #3, that still then applies for all minor league pitchers facing major league hitters, so it doesn’t change the derivable information, just the scale. Maybe an average minor league pitcher has a 4.50 FIP against minor league hitters, and a 5.00 FIP against major league hitters, because of umpire treatment. Its still the same difference for all minor league pitchers, so while the number may be the same, the number in itself doesn’t really mean anything without context anyway, and this just becomes a part of the context.

Look, I’m not disagreeing with you that projection is tantamount to statistical production at the minor league level. This was implied in the main point of my initial comment:

A lot of Allen’s upside is still about physical projection. Familia’s is skill development, specifically a third pitch.

Which isn’t remotely a statistically based point. All I’m saying is that statistics are still just tools for deriving evidence at the minor league level, even if you’re looking to support different conclusions (i.e. projection over production). I wasn’t going around screaming about how great Dylan Owen was in 2006 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA in short season ball, because it was pretty clear that he didn’t project as a major league pitcher. All I’m doing here is pointing out that Allen was more effective in shorter relief stints, and in longer starting stints, was a bit less effective, and that the difference was more than you generally expect. I’m not even saying this is a conclusive piece of evidence for anything, just that its something to watch for in his development.

And as or Savannah’s defense, not sure why that’s relevant, they both played on the same team and had the same group of defenders. Allen actually had more Ks, but Familia had the lower run rates. Was Familia inducing weaker contact? You tell me, you obviously got a better up-close-and-personal look at them than I did, but this is the kind of question I can ask after looking at the statistic and coming up with a hypothetical explanation. If the scouting data corroborates my hypothesis, I’ll feel pretty good about it, if not, I’ll come up with a new one.

I think thats actually a perfect example of how we can talk about a prospect statistically. He’s clearly got swing-and-miss stuff, but needs to improve his command. I need zero other information about Moore aside from the statistical information, provided by you, to form that hypothesis. If I take your word that he has a deep arsenal, that I can pretty comfortable agree that there’s a decent chance he’ll become an effective major leaguer, and understand a bit about what developmental improvements to look for.

but can determine Marte’s total number of errors over the course of a season? Come now, you’re being disingenuous.

And I don’t disagree, I’ve read some of your comments on minorleagueball and you seem to know what you’re talking about, but we’ve all got our methods, and just because you don’t like using statistics as a means of analysis doesn’t mean they aren’t functional tools.

that end up as closers, Brandon Morrow being a prime example, because they’re body types/pitching motions make it impossible for them to handle the load as a starters. I think that’s what loveofthegame is saying that he doesn’t think Meija will be physically capable of being a starter.