"Ascent into Saber Orthodoxy," or "You're Weak, Admit it"
This is all in good fun and I hope it's taken as such. The last year or so as I've been wading into the saber waters most aspects of my baseball thinking have been altered or overturned. I guess you could compare it to the conquest of superstition by the enlightenment, but it's probably more analogous to a guy who figured that flies were spontaneously generated by piles of crap until someone pointed out that that's impossible. That guy then went, "huh, that makes more sense."
I'll admit that I was surprised that baseball was being thought about so hard. I'd once said to my brother, a math phd, "hey, Tom, you should write a book about sports statistics! Like, you could do really nitty gritty research and put the often counter-intuitive results in the book! I'd bet you'd come up with some real surprising stuff, and a best seller besides!" Without thinking about it too hard, I figured that this was a subject that one smart math guy could satisfactorily dispense with in a year or two, and then we could all move on enlightened.
(Considering that none of us give proper credit to the complexity of shit that we don't know about, almost ever, this isn't surprising. "Hmm," I think to myself, "I'm in favor [or not in favor, as the case may be] of sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. I've read 13 newspaper articles and a New Yorker article about it, after all. These guys opposing my conclusion are dumbasses." If there were an Afghani Avenue, I'd be one of the simpletons that everyone gets belly aches laughing at. Not an exact analogy but you get it...)
To cut to the chase, I'm curious to know how my new found knowledge will do battle with my old rooting instincts as I watch a full season of 2010 baseball with the inherited knowledge of the smart peeps guiding me. Perhaps one day that inherited knowledge will be more fully felt when I'm pulling the levers myself and Meddler is apologizing for his ignorant impertinence. In the mean time, though, I thought it would be fun to open a discussion / do a poll about areas where we just can't put our hearts where our heads are as we actually watch ballgames. Please don't participate if you think sabermetrics are stupid, because that's not the point.
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I voted defense
I also think the closer one, but that doesn’t really go against sabermetrics if you weight for LI.
before you posted this
i had thought again and changed it to “#3-5” starter, as opposed to “#4 or 5 starter.” I’m not sure if that changes your comment. I don’t know what weighing for LI is.
by Pack Bringley on Dec 21, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
oh, leverage index
(to give myself credit, guessed before i googled.) just so there’s no clear “winner” in the poll, I’m changing it once more to be safe.
by Pack Bringley on Dec 21, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Small Ball
Because my little league coaches told me it’s the right way to do it. Subconsciously I get a thrill out of Castillo sac bunting in the 1st inning.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 21, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions
haha i chose small ball too
its just one of those things driven into your head from the time you learn baseball.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 21, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think small ball is really anti-saber
the rays played/play “small-ball” to an extent didn’t they?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Maybe it's more anti-Moneyball than anti-saber
Those A’s teams calculated that a sac bunt (because of the out you’re giving up) cost you X compared to the <X you were actually getting for the extra base. In other words, the moneyballers concluded sac bunts weren’t worth the out you gave up, and that the risk of getting caught stealing outweighed the benefit of the extra base. Alot of that approach was about the avoidance of outs at all costs.
I voted for this one — still hard for me to overcome my thrill at watching NL teams “manufacture” runs.
I don't see the value of adding a nutjob like Bradley
Talent is obviously the most important thing, but personality can get in the way.
I'd love to have
a scowling barcalounger reclining in the clubhouse Bonds on this team. Well circa 2001
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Dec 21, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, as long as he has the talent bonds had. bradley hasn't shown it yet.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 22, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
And to the OP
you’ll appreciate the season much moreso, until Omar trades Nick Evans for Yuni after castillo goes down because of his amazing D at SS translating well to 2b
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Dec 21, 2009 9:07 PM EST reply actions
Jerry would never let Omar trade Nick Evans
who would catch in the bullpen???
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Jerry won't let Omar trade Nick Evans
because he doesn’t realize he’s not the senior batboy.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 21, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
ERA, baby!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 21, 2009 10:12 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, I voted for ERA
hard for me to accept that some pitchers aren’t just good at “getting out of jams.”
by Pack Bringley on Dec 21, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
I voted for hitting hot streaks for the same reason
I see it with my own eyes!!
The amount of runs they give up because of their pitching is just too simple of a preformance-indicative stat to completely abandon.
Since I’ve been learning Sabermetrics, I know that ERA isn’t the be-all, end-all pitching statistic, as there’s so many other things that it is dependent on, like defense and all that. It’s just so obviously easy, though- good pitchers have low ERAs, along with better all-around stats, while bad pitchers have high ERAs, and generally bad stats all-around.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 21, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
I too voted for ERA
it was between that and small ball. I understand the inherent value in walks and “waiting for the 3 run homer,” but when I’m actually watching a game I prefer watching small ball (and the occasional 3 run homer. Just not the walks part)
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Voted for the knucklehead signing
There’s no real way to measure team chemistry or psychological stability, but in really extreme cases, such as Bradley, these things have to factor into the discussion somehow. I don’t think its nearly as meaningful talking about a no-production, “good clubhouse guy” like Alex Cora, more the really unpredictable, volatile players.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 21, 2009 10:26 PM EST reply actions
Another knucklehead voter (double meaning?)
I don’t expect everyone to be David Wright in personality, and I frankly don’t want to know a lot of the things they do when the game is over, but there is a line that IMO a player can’t cross where he can divide the team. I didn’t put Bonds there, but I do put Bradley and Sheffield there.
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
Likewise. A knucklehead just takes some of the fun out of rooting for your team.
It’s like your sister marrying that blockhead who can’t wait to get home from work every day and start sucking on a sixpack; the kind of guy who sneaks a look at every hot girl he walks by, even when he’s with his wife.
You want it to work, for her sake, but there’s not a whole lot of happiness in it.
i only know a few SABR stats
I voted for defense, but I do everything except love smallball and value closers over starters.
I guess I just never got as much into sabermetrics as the rest of us
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
you're only 14 right?
I’d say you have plenty of time to get into sabermetrics
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
My thoughts on these:
Hot hitters – I don’t necessarily think hot hitting is a total myth (although, sometimes a “hot” streak is just luck).
ERA – ERA is pretty highly correlated with good pitching, but it’s also a good idea to compare it with other available stats to account for luck.
Defense – I love defense. If you watch a team with bad outfield defense, it’s almost painful to see how many extra balls drop in. I am a bit skeptical about the precision of advanced stats like UZR though.
Small ball – I hate bunting, but I have to confess that I love sac flies almost as much as Tim Kurkjian
Knuckleheads – I voted for this one. I’ve never been in a baseball clubhouse, but I do work in an office, and a knucklehead can certainly hurt productivity in an office, so why not a baseball team?
Closers – A dominant closer can be vastly underrated by context independent stats like WAR, because closers are usually used in high leverage situations. You just have to be careful of this when weighing the value of a closer.
Clutch hitting – in most cases it’s nonsense, but ARod does have a -8 career clutch rating
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Yeah I agree about hot hitting
Mostly because I believe there’s such thing as an athlete just being “in the zone” and that there’s such thing as an athlete struggling just because he’s over thinking.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I voted for clutch hitting
because by definition, there is such a thing. The clutch hitter is a myth, but clutch hitting does exist, it’s just not a specific skill. There’s no such thing as a player who does extraordinarily better or worse, with a large enough sample size, in the late and close situations.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
This...
… is totally the AA equivalent of answering “I’m a workaholic” when asked the “what’s your biggest weakness” question on a job interview.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 23, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I voted for ERA, and I hate myself for it
clutch hitting and small ball was close, but because so much of the info that I get when I’m away from the internets because of stupid MSM
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Somehow missed the knucklehads one
For some reason I read that as knuckleballers. Reading fail on my part.
Not on this list, but I sometimes wonder about the lack of concern over a hitter’s penchant for striking out. It’s not completely dismissed, but saber-wise fans generally don’t worry too much about it. Yet we tend to prefer pitchers with high k-rates, based in part on the idea that they give the defense fewer opportunities to mess up. Shouldn’t we then be a bit more concerned with players who strike out a lot. Often times a high-K guy like Dunn or Howard is defended with the argument that all outs are the same. But they’re not, and we acknowledge as much with our celebration of high-K pitchers.
Obviously a player who strikes out a lot but is otherwise productive – David Wright being a prime example – is valuable and the high number of strikeouts doesn’t drastically reduce his value. Yet there does seem to be a slight double standard at work here.
this
I’ve never really understood the “strikeouts are the same as other outs” – technically, that’s true. The problem is that if, instead of striking out, the guy hit the ball somewhere on the field, there’s about a 30 percent chance that it would have been hit (or whatever the guys BABIP is) or at least turned into an error. You can’t just assume that every strike out would have been an out if contact had been made
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
All outs are not the same
When a hitter strikes out, he is not advancing a runner. But on the other hand, he isn’t hitting into a double play (unless someone is running with the ptich). So that falls into the category of “do no harm.”
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
I am a sucker for hotness.
And voted for the “sizzle sticks” fallacy.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 23, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions

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