New Plan given the FA Market. Thoughts?
The Mets ended 2009 with the 4th lowest team WAR in baseball at 12.1.
The losses of Fernando Tatis (1.5 WAR), Ramon Castro (.5 WAR), Ryan Church (.4 WAR), Brian Schneider (.3 WAR), Cory Sullivan (.1 WAR) and Gary Sheffield (.1 WAR) bring that number down to 9.2 WAR while the addition of Henry Blanco this offseason brings the figure back up to around 10 WAR (good for 2nd lowest in baseball behind the Royals according to 2009 figures).
Now clearly the Mets offseason plans are incomplete though the market is certainly not the same as it was in November. Here's a couple of non-long-term-devastating solutions to perhaps provide improvement for 2010 and beyond.
1) Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 Year 110 mil contract. To me, Holliday is certainly a safer bet than Bay, and he is a top 15 player in baseball according to WAR (while Bay doesn't crack the top 50). If the Mets are willing to pay Bay around 15-16mil annually, paying Matt Holliday for better production at only a 2 mil increase seems like a no-brainer.
2) Sign Ben Sheets. Is it risky? Sure. But for a player with a career FIP of 3.55 over a stretch of 1400 innings, I will take the risk. I think something in the neighborhood of 7-8 mil given his circumstances would suffice.
3) Sign Carlos Delgado. He made 3.5 mil last season, and giving him an incentive laden 2-3mil contract seems appropriate. He is coming off a full year of recovery time, and there's no reason to believe he can't hit in a part time role.
4) Sign Ryan Garko. Garko absolutely mashes LHP to a tune of 313/392/495. Platooned with Delgado's 287/399/582 career numbers against RHP, there's no reason to believe that these 2 wouldn't make a great platoon. Garko is an adequate fielder as well at 1B and he has experience as an OF barring catastrophic injury. I think he can be had for a contract in the neighborhood of 1-4 mil.
5) Trade for Luis Castillo for Jeremy Bonderman. To me this deal makes sense. The Tigers have a bunch of low starters such as Coke, Galarraga, Bonine, and Robertson who will probably duke it out for the 4th/5th spot in the rotation until Casey Crosby comes up. Scott Sizemore is 25, and far from a guarantee to produce in the majors and already has a broken fibula and ankle (both late last year) on his injury history list. Bonderman makes 12.5 for 2009 and is then a FA. Given a good bounce back season (he has a 4.17 career WAR), he can be worth Type A compensation, and gives us flexibility heading into the 2010 Free Agency as opposed to having contracts for Pineiro or Garland on the books. Furthermore, the Tigers shave 6.5 million in salary for 2010 and improve their 2B position.
6) Sign a 2B to a 1 year deal. There are still a ton of capable 2B out on the market such as Adam Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, and Kelly Johnson. All 3 are improvements over Castillo, and probably won't be as expensive.
Ideal situation:
10.1 WAR (current team) + Holliday (5.7 WAR), + Sheets (est. 3 WAR), + Bonderman (est. 2 WAR), + Garko (est. 1 WAR) + (est. 1.5 WAR) + Kelly Johnson (est. 1.5 WAR). - Luis Castillo (1.6 WAR) = 23.1 (good enough for 4th in NL according to 2008 numbers).
Cost for 2010: 18.5 + 8 + 12.5 + 3 + 3 + 4 - 6= 43.5 mil + current payroll.
Gain from 2010: 2 Type A Free Agents.
Contracts on the hook for 2011 and on: only Matt Holliday.
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Except for
Holliday, Belliard, and Johnson I’d pass on everything else.
I think using last years WAR numbers is very misleading.
You’re counting on Beltran to miss 1/2 a season, and Reyes to miss the majority by doing so. You’re also counting on Maine and Perez each missing substantial time, as well as the Johan. Last years numbers were so afected by injuries that they are almost useless.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 24, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions
So true. All the Olney’s and Kirkjean’s(sp?) will be blowin’ the Mets come June.
by strawspoonage on Dec 24, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
I really think a Murphy/Evans platoon
would be as useful as a garko/delgado platoon, especially when you figure in evans and murphy would likely provide plus defense.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Agreed
And probably $7-9mil cheaper.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Dec 25, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
agree on delgado
Hey I was really pulling for Carlos to go play winter ball and have some success but it is looking less likely every day, too bad, I liked the guy.
seems the whole website is in agreement to take a look at Sheets with an spring invite
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 26, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
Bonderman
He’s certainly got to be a guy whose salary the Tigers want to dump, but can the Mets really afford to take it on? He’s owed $12.5M next year (free agent after 2010) and I don’t see how you can reliably predict that you’re going to get much production, if anything, out of him. While there might be better options than Castillo at 2B for less money, how much progress are you really making if you then go and pay Bonderman $6.25M more than you have to pay Castillo?
How about
the Mets make signing Aroldis Chapman a priority.
I'd love that
but I can’t see us paying the supposed price tag, I’ve heard bidding will be around 15 million+
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The Marlins
supposedly offered $15 million already. I don’t see why you don’t think the Mets would be in the bidding. They finished 2nd in the Dice-K bidding.
Castillo for Bonderman, I wish
if we could get that trade, I would be all for that.. Bonderman hasn’t had a great season the last couple but he has some talent, and I would arther take my chances with him thatn castillo..and I am all for Adam Kennedy or any of those 2B mentioned as a Met..I would even consider Wigginton if he can get back to playing 2B, we kno whe has a little pop.
For 2b alternatives to Castillo
Hudson or Uribe
Ugh i liked Bonderman
But he’s owed 12 million each of the next 2 years. I’m not sure I have enough faith in his ability to stay healthy and effective, considering he’s only pitched 80 ML innings in the last 2 years. I think I’d rather keep Castillo than add an extra 12 million, over the 2 years, to the payroll for a pitcher who may not even break 20 ML innings.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Wait that's wrong
he’s just owed 12 million this year. I guess maybe it would make sense if they can afford to absorb his contract just to get out of the obligation earlier, but considering they some of the moves they’d made to clear small amounts of money, like Castros and Wagners trades, and the fact they won’t treat Castillo like a sunk cost I doubt they’d take on the 12 million and not have it keep them from signing another pitcher.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

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