On Marquis And Pineiro

by James Kannengieser on Dec 26, 2009 2:00 PM EST

Gut reaction to the news that Jason Marquis signed with the Nationals was relief. That's one less overrated player for the Mets to consider acquiring. Let the Nats hand out three years and $30 million to a pitcher with a career K/BB of 1.5 coming off his best season. However, upon receiving word of the reasonable terms of the contract (two years, $15 million) I decided it would not have been an awful signing and, as an added bonus, might have afforded the Mets a reprieve from MSM members due to Marquis's hometown hero story. Two hundred innings of league average pitching is valuable, and given the price-per-win model Marquis would be a nice bet to be worth his contract if he played for a team with average financial resources. The contract would have been slightly better for the Mets compared to the average team, given their deep pockets. One of the better free agent pitchers still available, Joel Pineiro, is quite similar to Marquis. Negotiations with the former should be affected by the contract signed by the latter. The report that Pineiro is the Mets' top free agent starting pitching target is not surprising or altogether terrible at this point.

Both Pineiro and Marquis are 31 years-old, have trouble missing bats and are adept at inducing groundballs. Pineiro experienced a sharp increase in groundball % this season, which was the recipe for his ~5 WAR 2009. It's likely he will regress but there is evidence suggesting that newfound groundball ability is sustainable. He has decidedly better control, which separates him from Marquis and accounts for the more favorable projection. CHONE projects a 4.37 ERA (2.4 WAR) for Pineiro and a 4.60 ERA (1.8 WAR) for Marquis. Considering this, maybe a two year, $18 million offer would be enough to sign Type B free agent Pineiro. He is definitely better than John Maine and Oliver Perez and probably slightly better than Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese.

Shaky infield defense is a documented problem for the Mets and a defensive upgrade at second base would be nice if Pineiro is signed. Even if Luis Castillo is starting on Opening Day, a groundball pitcher is generally preferable to a flyball pitcher. More double plays and fewer extra base hits and home runs are some of the benefits. Signing Pineiro and Ben Sheets (the most attractive injury-risk stud pitcher left) would upgrade the rotation at a reasonable price with no long-term entanglements. How does this look for rotation depth: Santana-Sheets-Pineiro-Pelfrey-Niese-Maine-Perez.

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Lets hope it happens

I would be happy with a rotation like that. Hopefully, we could get a good LFer to along with that rotation.

by Coolpapabell on Dec 26, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions

I'd like that

I’ve been wanting the Mets to make Sheets an offer. I’m still unsure of how much of Pineiro’s success can follow him to NY without Dave Duncan but if the contract is cheap enough it couldn’t hurt to at least bring him to Spring Training.

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Dec 26, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions

According to Globedia.com, we are also frontrunners with the the White Sox for Cuban pitcher Yuniesky Maya. (Got this from metsblog.) Here’s the info on him (I hope I format this right):

Blockquoted paragraph Jorge Arangure of ESPN.com quotes a scout who watched Maya as saying he threw in the 88–92 mph range, while sporting a fastball, two-seamer, a slider, curveball and a changeup.

The Mets and White Sox are the front-runners to sign Maya, according to a recent report on Globedia.com.

Maya’s agent, Bart Hernandez, told Arangure, "Due to his arsenal of pitches, Maya projects as a starting pitcher… It would be a shame to put him in the bullpen. He’s in the prime of his career. It’s not like he’s a young kid needing development."

In one start and two relief appearances, during last spring’s World Baseball Classic, the 27–year-old Maya allowed one earned run in seven innings, while walking two batters and striking out four.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Dec 26, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions

(Let me try this again now that the format buttons are back up)

Jorge Arangure of ESPN.com quotes a scout who watched Maya as saying he threw in the 88–92 mph range, while sporting a fastball, two-seamer, a slider, curveball and a changeup.

The Mets and White Sox are the front-runners to sign Maya, according to a recent report on Globedia.com.

Maya’s agent, Bart Hernandez, told Arangure, "Due to his arsenal of pitches, Maya projects as a starting pitcher… It would be a shame to put him in the bullpen. He’s in the prime of his career. It’s not like he’s a young kid needing development."

In one start and two relief appearances, during last spring’s World Baseball Classic, the 27–year-old Maya allowed one earned run in seven innings, while walking two batters and striking out four.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Dec 26, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Sheets is a huge question mark

A whole year out of the game and word is that he wants at least $7 mill guaranteed. Doesn’t help that the type of elbow surgery he had leaves huge questions as to how much is left and how long it’ll take him to get to full strength. There are also questions about Sheets shoulder.

Finally, much of sheets success has been derived from his 12-6 curve ball. It’s a great pitch, but its highly demanding on his arm and likely the cause of his injuries.
I think it’s highly doubtful the Mets or any other time will tender an offer until he atleast throws a bullpen session for someone.

I personally have a preference towards Erik Bedard over Sheets. Bedard is a lefty, pitched exceptional last year coming off the first shoulder surgery, and his success is very similar to Santana’s, in that it is dervied from a fastball changeup combo with a + slider.

One last thing… Sheets was basically signed by the Rangers last year and Texas is believed to be his preference.

by MLB DW on Dec 26, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions

the problem with Bedard is he may be out till June

it’s even possible he could miss the whole season.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 26, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

This

Sheets will supposedly be ready for spring training.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 26, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Sheets vs Bedard

I don’t see a real difference. If Bedard comes back in June, he could conceivably pitch the rest of the season (plus the hypothetical playoffs). With Sheets…he hasn’t pitched at all in a full year. There is no way that anyone can reasonable expect that he’ll go through Spring Training and throw 200 innings during the regular season (plus the hypothetical playoffs). His arm is probably going to tire sometime in the summer and he’ll be out for a month or two.

Bedard can probably had for much cheaper (i.e., more incentives in the contract) due to the risk that he may have to delay his return.

by MangoMetsFan on Dec 27, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions

I think that's total speculation

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 28, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions

would like Garland or Davis

I would be happy with a Davis or Garland signing, or btoh. They are not #1 guys, but solid #3 starters, and both have lower 4.00 ERAs. If Citifiled winds up being a picther friendly park, than maybe they can get down under 4.00. and that could easily translate to 12-14 wins…they have both pitched 200 innings many times. I think where Pinero might take $9-10 million maybe we can get both these guys for $6-7, and really save our pen, and with Escobar trying for the pen set up, I would rather see him in longer relief being a former starter he should be able to throw a few innings during a blow out along with Parnell.

by Rickfansince76 on Dec 27, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions

Pineiro's a lot better than his projections going forward

He added a sinker this year and completely changed his approach to attacking hitters. A simple weighted and regressed projection of previous years stat’s won’t capture that.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2009 1:39 AM EST reply actions

Probably true

but don’t you think leaving Dave Duncan will have a negative effect on him?

by Syler on Dec 27, 2009 2:56 AM EST up reply actions

if leaving Dave Duncan doesn't

coming to Dan Warthen will.

but it won’t really be his fault, it will be that the catchers can’t call games.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 27, 2009 2:57 AM EST up reply actions

Probably

But I do think that the skills he acquired under him will be sustained even under a different pitching coach. Unless that asshole tells him to start throwing high 4 seam fastballs…

by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2009 3:13 AM EST up reply actions

which he will

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 28, 2009 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

Pineiro adds to an already risky rotation

Like Rickfan I would be happy with Garland on $6-7 mill. I agree he is a #3 but a 200+ innings guy is what Mets need to solidify the rotation. If all SP are healthy, this could end up being a very good staff. The addition of Maya would add to the potential depth, as his Cuban stats indicate #2, but he is likely to be a #4-5, at least inistially, if he gets into the rotation. Sheets needs to be signed on a largely incentive deal, rather than guarantee him $12 mill. Also, Maine is potentially a #2 (if he regains his 2007 touch). This would give a rotation of: Santana, Sheets, Maine, Garland, Pelfrey, with Perez, Neise, Maya, Figueroa, Misch, etc. for depth. By the end of 2010 we will know who can be taken forward into 2011.

by Metabroad on Dec 27, 2009 1:57 AM EST reply actions

Ollie as the #7 Pitcher in the Depth Chart is a pipe dream

I really wish that the fan base would just accept that Ollie is going to be in the 5-man starting rotation. That is what is going to happen. He is not the second guy on the SP depth chart. Are the Mets going to start him off in AAA? No. Are they going to stick a $12m per year guy in the bullpen and never use him? No. Could we all please just be realistic about what is going to happen next year.

Sorry. End rant. Just felt like I had to say that.

by MangoMetsFan on Dec 27, 2009 9:25 AM EST reply actions

There's being realistic

And then there’s conveying what a fan (in this case, me) would like the Mets to do. Where’s the fun in only recommending things that you, or anyone else, think the Mets front office will actually do?

by James Kannengieser on Dec 27, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

Just proposing a course of action

Unlike some earlier discussions about trades for Halladay, etc. I think I have limited myself to what is realistic – assuming these players want to come and play for the Mets and Omar is up to negotiating them here! If the roster contains a number of bargains and everyone is fit, the actual expenditure should not matter. The roles will go to however are performing best each week.

Even if not coming off an injury, Ollie has a lot to prove. I do like him as a lefty with a lively arm and good stuff. It is just that we don’t see this enough. Certainly, the rotation will have a bit of ‘sameness’ about it without him. Combined with Maine also coming off injury and Pelfrey with the odd ’roo loose in the top paddock, this makes the rotation suspect. I would really like a reliable arm to anchor the middle. Ollie will be there unless two SPs are signed.

by Metabroad on Dec 27, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Ollie will be there even if two SPs are signed

This is my issue. Ollie is getting paid $12m per year whether we (or the Mets) like it or not (mostly not). The manager pretty much has to pitch him if he’s not on the DL. If healthy, there is zero chance he won’t be in the rotation. He has nothing to prove to you. It doesn’t matter if you think his live arm and good stuff is enough. He is not getting removed from the rotation unless he is either hurt or puts up a 15 ERA through June. If two SPs are signed, then the rotation will include Santana, Pelf, Ollie and the two new pitchers. That’s the end of the story.

I understand now that James K is just saying what he’d like the Mets to do. OK. Fine. That’s acceptable…in that context. Unfortunately, I feel that a lot of posters take this context and start running with it…and start speaking as if they had real input in Ollie not starting or in Francoeur not playing right field…or as if it’s even a realistic possibility (thus setting themselves and others up for inevitable disappointment and complaining when reality actually happens). Maybe I’m just reading a lot of the posts incorrectly. My sincerest apologies if that’s the case. Trust me, I’m all for writing recommendations / proposals and discussing them. That’s a lot of fun and it helps us all to think about baseball and our favorite team in a critical way. That’s cool. That’s why I like reading the comments on this site. I’d just like to see some of the “fantasy” posts have a bit more realism, that’s all. My personal preference. …and of course, I’ll keep on reading the comments anyway.

by MangoMetsFan on Dec 27, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

Well if they actually plan on bringing in Bay or Holliday

then it’s unlikely Frenchy will be starting for a long period of time, unless the front office plans on trading F-mart. To me if they actually liked Frenchy that much they wouldn’t be pursuing Bay. Unless they just think he’s worth 4+ million as a fourth outfielder.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 27, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

By the way

I came up with that rotation depth list in about 3 seconds. Maine/Niese/Ollie are interchangeable at this point for me. I put about as much thought into listing Ollie 7th as I did which kind of cheese I put on my cheeseburger tonight.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 27, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions