Report: Jason Bay To Sign With Mets, Pending Physical
by James Kannengieser on Dec 29, 2009 2:14 PM EST
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PrintMike Francesa reported on WFAN that the Mets will announce sometime early next week that they have signed Jason Bay, pending a physical. No terms were reported.
Added by Mark: After hinting that he would have a "big" update today, Mike Francesa of WFAN says the Mets and Jason Bay are close to agreeing to a deal, with a physical the only remaining hurdle. Its tough to know just how Mike was able to keep this info so tightly under wraps since last night without worrying it might leak out, so look for confirmation elsewhere. He says to expect an official announcement sometime after the weekend. There was no info on the financials provided.
2:43pm by Eric: Joel Sherman tweets that the contract is for four years and $66 million and that it contains an "easy vest for 5th year". The fifth year could push this deal from "possibly worth the money" to "oh jebus, no".
3:10pm by Eric: I'm trying to figure out why Omar Minaya has such a detestable affinity for vesting options these days. Maybe they convince the less attentive that a deal isn't so bad, while still caving to the player's demands. "Look, it's only a four-year deal! We didn't go to five years like Bay was asking! I'm a terrific negotiator!" Meanwhile, the vesting part of the option is so easily attainable as to make it tantamount to a guaranteed extra year. We don't yet know what the requirements for the option to vest are, but we can reasonably guess that they will be based on games played or plate appearances, in which case the option year only differs from a guaranteed year if Bay is injured enough to fall short of those (presumably light) requirements.
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Whoops, sorry James!
Checking the fanshots it seems like a very large percentage of AA members were just as ready as we were to vulture fatty’s story.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, I deleted mine
It seemed superfluous.
I’m slightly bummed that we aren’t going to actively pursue Holliday, but then maybe it’s better that we sign Bay then wind up with nothing, assuming the Cards are probably not going to sign Holliday.
The other “big” announcement is that Molina is not budging on his push for three years.
Of course Molina isn't budging.
Do you know how much effort it takes for him to budge even one single inch?
#Bengie Molina Fat
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 29, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
SI's Jon Heyman confirms Mets and Bay have agreement
Holy crap, Mike Francesa was… right about something
I’m very, very scared right now
On the other hand, it's Heyman
He might be the only guy with a worse track record.
But this is probably legit.
Both are better than Silva...
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, really!! Thanks Francesa.
Some guy named Tony, says he’s Bay’s cousin, posted on MLB Trade Rumos a couple of days ago, that Jason
would sign soon….
by 1969met on Dec 29, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Omar decided to pre-empt the market
and offered 10 years / 120 million, which caused Bay to reconsider.
(just kidding)
you know what I'm sayin' ?
Seriously, if true, then all we need is`
2 SPs, and a new set of doctors, and we will be champtions.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
You Mean
World Phucking Champtions
DWDLD
by Jadden Hopkins on Dec 29, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
"DATA!"
“Engage deletion mechanism! Post Voltron career postseason numbers!”
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
by Preach19 on Dec 29, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
all the way back in 2009
David Wright, Carlos Beltan, etc.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Oh dear! You are making me so angry!
Beer is good! And stuff!
by R_Adragna on Dec 29, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Which usually means...
It’s something like 5/80.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
I hear...
… they’re still crossing their fingers on FatBengie.
I, for one, wish them luck.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Omar really...
…pantsed Beirut on this one.
by danielj on Dec 29, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Here's the
link for Heyman’s confirmation
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 2:31 PM EST reply actions
Anyone else notice how Francesa
said the same thing over and over around 25 times when announcing this news?
“The Mets will announce sometime early next week that Bay will be a Met pending a physical.”
“So, sometime next week, could be Monday or Tuesday, Bay will be announced a Met if he passes the physical.”
“And so, Bay will be announced next week if he passes his physical, sometime early next week.”
and on and on for ten minutes.
"Wai' uh seccun. Wai' uh seccun. Wai' uh seccun!"
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
he does that
everytime, all the time
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Sorry for stating the obvious
I have to admit I never listen to him because he’s such a moron
(Only tuned in today because of his teaser of the Mets news).
I heard about the teaser
and deliberately did not tune in, knew it would pop up here right away.
by Mount17 on Dec 29, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Before the announcement...
… he was going off on Rex Ryan a bit there, wasn’t he? Sounded like he was going to keel over. if he kept at it.
It’s a shame that didn’t continue.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I don't understand why you wouldn't even put an offer in for Holliday
before signing Bay. I mean I suppose they might have put an offer in for Holliday, but it seems like they really never showed any interest in him.
Maybe it at least won’t be heavily backloaded.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The only "good" reason I can think of
(not the “harder negotiations” garbage, which I really hope wasn’t the excuse) is that they were afraid St. Louis would respond by making an offer to Bay, however unlikely that was.
evaluation breakdown
Bay as a better fielder, better able to handle pressure, etc., their judgment just seems flawed in comparing the two, if what has been reported about their analysis is to be believed. They seemed to put a lot on the home run flight data, which i guess is fine, but Holliday is a better over-all player. I think they just wanted Bay because he is a little cheaper, even if the dollar for performance isn’t as good as the cards apparent offer for Holliday.
Saving money there to toss at Molina is not a smart move even if the Mets can spend more than others. I am hoping Molina doesn’t blink in a brain-off with Omar and Thole/Blanco gets the nod.
But you're paying 2 million less
for like 8 million worth less of performance, nevermind what it will be like at the end of the contract.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
And with the option
maybe it won’t even be 2 million less. Though, if they would have bid against the Cards, he would have gotten more expensive.
You can't really state that until Holliday signs.
Right now his contract offers are purely speculation.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
I'd also argue that there are other contractual provisions of various value that aren't being taken into account
…no trade clause, length of contract, etc.
I also like the idea that the Mets have those extra millions to spend on other areas.
I know
That’s why I say it is evaluation breakdown. I don’t think they see the $8 million difference. I myself question if the fielding difference is that great, but I don’t think it’s as close as Omar et al think. I really think they figured Bay is just as good and they can use some of the savings on Benji. Sad but true, and that is how a budget advantage gets wasted. But I am not that upset about adding Bay, isolated from the failure to go after Holliday
Yeah in a vaccum the Bay deal is fine
pending more information on the vesting option, it’s more than it shows they’re inability to get the best bang for their buck and properly evaluate the market/players value.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The real problem
Is that its kind of a catch-22. Holliday’s market just virtually halved. Once Bay went off the board, since there weren’t a ton of suitors, Holliday’s expected contract went down pretty significantly. If he had signed first, he might have gotten quite a bit more, especially if the Mets were more involved. But I’m not sure it would have worked that way for Bay if Holliday had signed first, since Holliday would have set the higher market standard, or if he set a lower market standard, encouraged more teams to get involved with Bay.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree completely, I'd argue that Holliday's value just went through the roof.
We know the Cards have interest, and I’d have to assume the Angels have some interest as well. The Giants could certainly use a bat, and you can never rule out the Yankees. All Boras needs is two teams that need him, espescially when he’s the only premium bat left on the market.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe, and I hope your right, it'd make the Bay deal look a lot better
But I don’t think there’s any indication that any of those teams are seriously involved unless the price is low enough to make the Bay deal look bad by comparison.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Texiera was knd of the same way until talks really heated up.
Nobody seemed to have legitimate interest and then all of a sudden half of MLB was involved. Normally I’d agree with you, but Boras has such a good track record with reading the market that I have to think he’ll still get Holliday a big deal.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
He majorly misread the market
with A-Rod and was really lucky that Hank bought the “really want to be a Yankee” bit.
Did he?
It was luck that he got the Yankees to step in and steal Tex from the Sawx. A-rod was luck. It was luck that someone bought into Zito. Lucky for Manny the Dodgers thought the Giants might get involved. After a while you just have to give the guy his props.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
I guess
I actually think the A-Rod thing was genius – it was portrayed that A-Rod froze out Boras and went crawling back to the Yankees on his own, but I really believe that it was all planned by Boras, with him willing to play the bad guy, when he saw that there weren’t other options out there
All that really matters is the end result, and Arod got alot of money.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
That's true, but the big market teams didn't seem so overstuffed already
Boras is a wizard, if anyone can do it he can, but he can’t create a market, he can only manipulate and exploit a market that already exists. The Yankees seem to be done spending, which wasn’t the case with Tex, it just seemed they weren’t going to spend on him. The Sox might get involved I guess, but they have similar luxury tax concerns to the Mets from what I understand, so they might have to wiggle some trade room first. If the Angels weren’t players before, I don’t see how the Bay signing would suddenly convince them to get involved, same with the Giants.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
The Angels don't seem that way at all.
They’re quite a bit worse with alot of monet to spend, and Seattle has gotten alot better. All it takes is one big market team getting involved…
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
But then the Bay signing doesn't really change anything for them
It just assumes they were playing coy from the beginning. If they’re doing that, then they totally misread the market, since they probably could have gotten more out of Bay at 4/66 than Holliday on a Boras uber-contract.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Then again, the more I think about it, the more it seems this might have been Boras's plan all along
The play the Angels, who were trying to bargain hunt. But the Angels are really the only team that fits, and now they’re basically competing with the Cardinals as the only two hypothetical teams who realistically seem likely to give Holliday a contract offer significantly greater than anyone else. I almost have to imagine Boras would have preferred in the Angels had swooped in and signed Bay, since the Mets are in a much more desperate situation and would have been the one team with a ton of pressure to pick up Holliday once the alternative was off the board. None of the other teams seem to care much. The Angels and Cards should, but the former is a pretty smart organization capable of making more precision-type moves to improve the team in a smaller way, and the latter isn’t really a huge market team and has the added pressure of considering an extension for the best player in the game.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Giants and Yankees are fits as well, and it would surprise me if other didn't as well.
The Nats have shown a willingness to spend if Holliday would actually sign there.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see the Yankees getting involved
They’re already in that territory at least in the short term where the marginal value of a win is starting to come back down. They’re a better team than they were last year by quite a bit, and they were already the best team in baseball. Do they really need a $20 million insurance policy? I don’t necessarily believe Cashman when he says they’re done spending, but I do believe it means they’re not willing to get into a major bidding war.
The Giants need the offense, but there’s been no indication they’re at all willing to spend that kind of money, and they’re not the Yankees. Again, I have to question why they wouldn’t get involved while Bay was on the table. There’s less reason for them to bargain shop. The value of adding a guy like Holliday does make sense for them, but if they were willing to absorb that kind of cost, why wait until now?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
If it's just the cards on say 5/82, does that still constitute a major bidding war though?
The fact that Cashman felt that Texiera was going to go for a bargain price seemed to be why he got involved…if it remains only the Cards on Holliday that could very well be the case again. I guess the only way to know for sure will be to wait and see, but I think when Holliday actually starts to get moving we’ll see several teams in on him.
For the time being I’m going to hold out on criticizing Minaya for the Bay deal, as I think 4/66 is actually pretty good. Some team may end up getting better value for Holliday, but passing on Bay for that chance seems an awfully large risk to take if Bay was willing to sign for 4 years at that price. I’m also going to reserve judgement on the option until I see the requirements and the value of it.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
But that was kind of my point, its a catch-22. If the market stays low for Holliday, teams might get involved, but if he signs at 6/100, that’s a better deal than Bay at 4/66, and it seems he might have to settle for less than that even if other teams get involved.
I’m not saying that makes the decision to sign Bay a poor one, if the Mets didn’t sign Bay, things would have played out differently, and if Bay signed elsewhere first, the Mets probably would have had to go all out on Holliday. The only way they’d have gotten a 6/100 type deal on him is if they signed him before Bay signed, and Boras probably wasn’t going to let that happen. So what I’m saying is, the Bay deal was probably good for the Mets even if the deal Holliday gets looks better, since that opportunity wouldn’t have been there for the Mets.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
*Money
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
And Lord knows...
… we don’t want any more of THAT getting-on-base, 25-30 HR, .500+ slugging trash around here.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Don't forget that God damn contract...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
We really do not know what Hollidays contract will eventually be. It very well could be more than that seeing that Scott Boras is at the helm. Eventhough Holliday has no options, I won’t count Boras out.
I also feel the Mets would have had to have paid through the nose. Holliday is worth it, but you are looking at a two year difference in contract lengths. The Mets would have had to throw in six years with Holliday, while they are only paying four with Bay(if this easy vesting stuff is false).
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
It'll be less
with the Mets out of the picture. I bet the Cards are sending Omar a nice box of Havanas for staying out. Or at least El Producto De Peru.
Who knows...maybe we did.
If it’s 4/66 that doesn’t seem too bad, but I’ll hold judgement until I see the details. Realistically we should hold aff until Holliday signs as well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
This is an excellent lineup
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Bay
Wright
Delgado/Murphy
Francoeur
Molina/Santos/Thole
Pitcher
yet still doesn’t remotely address pitching or D fense. Mark me down as another sheep who woulda loved Holliday not Bay
After my initial disgust that this all that eliminates a run at Matt Holliday...
it’s not terrible. Bay is a an above average player, and that’s the sort of player we’ve been missing on the team…a supporting cast that can really contribute to our circle of stars. That said, a Bengie Molina signing would NOT help that cause, and would cause me to commit some sort of felony. Not sure which.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I don't think even Omar
is stupid enough to give Bengie Molina three years…… right?
prays
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Dec 29, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I like Bay and he is certainly a useful player, but not when compared to Holliday, who is a superior player could be available for a comparable deal.
Now I’m just hoping someone signs Holliday to an Omar-Like overpay to ease the pain of not getting him.
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
this
the problem isn’t Jason Bay, it’s that a better payer was available for not that much more money (possibly), and the Mets showed no interest in him at all. Jason Bay will absolutely help the Mets this year, probably next year, and maybe he’ll even be useful by the end of the contract (or he’ll get hurt and his 5th year won’t vest – probably not a good thing that I’m already hoping for an injury). I just wanted Holliday more.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
answer me this……lets say Bay is a Met….do the Mets try and grab Holliday also? i know it is gonna cost them……but Bay, Carlos and Holliday in the outfield……or even one of them at First base………we still need a couple of arms but I think the Mets instantly become a wild card team. maybe its the Eggnog talkin, but they would look pretty scary.
I think its the eggnog
still need at least average starting pitching to complement the hitting and we don’t have that yet. If the rotation is still filled with question marks then we would have to hit like an AL team to overcome it, and even with Bay, Holliday, and Voltron I don’t see that happening.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Dec 29, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
no but they could sign him on the cheap and it sounds like Molina is a done deal too
However, Omar can also easily claim they have no need/money for Delgado after these 2 horrible signings
sorry about that
I meant to , but accidentally screwed it up. Is there a way to delete posts, and then re-post as reply?
Any word on the requirements for the option?
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Dec 29, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hearing talk of an easy opton for a fifth year, that scares me
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Dec 29, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
wtf did omar just learn about vesting options?
i should sign u[p to be a be ball girl maybe i can negotiate for a vesting option if i shag enough balls.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think vesting options are great
Done correctly, they can be beneficial to both player and team.
If I had to, I would do a vesting option for a fifth year dependent on production and health of Bay in his fourth year.
I would have liked Holliday, but we will have a good LFer next year. That hasn’t happened since 2007 Alou, or maybe even since Cliff Floyd.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think you can base it on production
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
You can't
which is unfortunate, because merit pay would really mitigate a lot of the risk of signing a player to a long-term deal. Understandable that the MLBPA has no interest in such an arrangement.
I think the whole league should be merit pay based
what the hell is wrong with paying a player what he’s actually worth? Although it would be pretty hypocritical, since the Wilpons would probably be worth about $20 bucks on the open market
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
honestly with Bay, is there really a need for Molina at all?
Can;t we live with Blanco/Thole/Santos and put that money towards a pineiro/sheets/anybody
I think it depends on what you give up for molina as far as salary and years. We haven’t had a catcher that could hit 20 homers since the P-man. 3 yrs at 3 million per? Historically no catcher smokes around the bases so Molina being slower tham molasses is not really a surprise.
Yeah but he also has a terrible obp
and supposedly pretty subpar defense
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Was Piazza a great defensive catcher? He called a great game but could not throw anyone out. he was average defensively
Yeah but Piazza
was WORLDS better offensively. Piazza was good enough offensively to be a DH, Molina is just about average offensively for a catcher at this point.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
His defense does seem bad
But according to both BtB and Driveline Mechanics, the two big catcher defensive evaluations that showed up for this year, he wasn’t awful. He was somewhere right around the cutoff for the middle/lower third, and better than quite a few other guys who were available.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
But is he enough of an upgrade over the Coste/Blancos of the world
to justify spending the money on him, over spending it in other areas, like say towards two pitchers rather than one.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
It depends on the money
I wouldn’t want to give him any more than the value of a win, basically 1-year $4.5 million or so. At that price, I do think he’s worth it.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
No way he is
The fact that he is worth 1WAR at fangraphs doesnt mean he’s worth 4.5m at FA
Well he's worth whatever the market value of his production is
Its hard to say what he was worth “on fangraphs” since they don’t adjust for defense or baserunning. He was actually above 1.5 WAR on fangraphs.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Its a different problem
Why pay that money for pretty much replacement level? He’s not better than Barajas, Zaun, Coste, Blanco, Santos, Castro yet this FO treats him like the prize of the winter
He's not replacement level though
He projects better than any of those guys. His age belies his durability, which none of those guys have, and which matters for a guy who is above replacement level. Even after defense and baserunning he was still greater than 1 WAR in 2009, and projects to be just under in 2010. That is better than anything in house. Its not worth spending big bucks on, but I’m speculating that if he continues to hold out for a three year deal, he’s going to wind up going a lot cheaper than the offers he has on the table right now. The market’s going to shrivel up eventually, and he’ll have to choose a team. If he can eventually be had for 1-year $3.5 million, or even a bit more, he probably becomes the best option on the table. More than that, forget it.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
It would make a lot more sense
I don’t see how they can justify spending the money on Bay, and then doing nothing to upgrade the pitching staff. You can’t honestly expect to contend with Maine and Ollie both pencilled in as starters.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Who is out there that can help them improve that they would not have to open the vault? Sheets is asking crazy money.
Sheets is asking for it
but no one in the world is going to give it to him. With the contracts Harden/Penny/Wolf/the guy from Oakland who’s name I can’t spell, got there’s zero reason to believe anyone’s going to sign Piniero/Garland/Sheets upwards of 9 million per, and even that is probably too much since Wolf got just above that and he’s a much better option.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I'd like Bedard
if we can get him on the cheap, though apparently he may not be ready for Opening Day, which concerns me
Yeah that;s my worry
I’ve read that there are concerns he may not even be ready till the all-star break. Plus with so many other question marks in the rotation if we signed someone like him I’d prefer if they paired him with a low variance pitcher like Garland, but it seems unlikely they’ll sign two pitchers.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Why not keep them and sign Barajas?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I like that he's supposedly not budging
The longer he holds out, the more likely it is he eventually signs below market value. He’d be fine on a one year deal, as long as that pervasive “vesting option” doesn’t rear its ugly head again. I really hope the FO wises up once February rolls around and Bengie’s still out there, and understands that they are allowed to reduce their initial offer.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Kerry Wood?
With his $10MM per year contract and inability to start anymore? No thanks
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
i hate to say it but
does this make F! expendable? we could probably get something good if we package him with castillo
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
No
because Frenchy shouldn’t start ever
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Frenchy shouldn’t start ever
He plays 150 games per year. Thats a lot of durability…………:-\
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
but he will
and he’s better than f-mart…. f-mart is looking like he could be a major bust
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
F-mart last year
was probably still better than Frenchy
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I like how
at 25 Frenchy could still improve his plate discipline and defense
but at 21 f-mart’s a bust
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
this was supposed to be a reply to OSUmets
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Also the fact that they went after Bay
really means most likely Frenchy won’t. The front office loves F-mart so there’s no way they would bring in an outfielder on a long-term deal if they thought it was going to block him, more than likely it means Frenchy’s going to be out, at least as far as starting, soon.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
21 years old.
And yes, Frenchy is better, because he isn’t a prospect.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
He's barely older than you...it's a little early to call him a bust.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
lol
100 big league at-bats and he’s a bust already.
After 100 plate appearances, you know what Darryl Strawberry’s batting line was? .179/.235/.305
Let’s give the kid a little time before we give up on him
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
Jerry Crasnick tweet:
“Jason Bay’s vesting option could bring the overall value of his deal to slightly more than $80 million over five years”
Bay
for this kind of money? could be better, could be worse. Let’s hope for the better.
See his vest, see his vest, see his vest!
by Syler on Dec 29, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
BOY, MY AGENTS DID THEIR BEST! I WOULD HAVE TO SHOOT A WILPON FOR THIS OPTION NOT TO VEST!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
That is an unfortunate picture
What the hell was he thinking on the set?
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
Nice vest, though.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
i dont get why
we didn’t at least try to deal for holiday. i mean, what’s the harm? holiday is going to end up signing for an extremely similar deal most likely. terrible.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
With Boras as his agent? Not a chance
If he can’t get what he wants, Boras will get him a 1 year deal with a 1 year player option and let him hit the free agent market next year. (See Drew, J.D.)
Molina
will get zero years with three vesting options based on QGC (Quality of Games Called) for a total of 20 million.
vesting options based on quantity of burgers eaten.
Hey, wasn’t that Mo Vaughn’s contract?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
What's this rumor on the Mets working on a deal for Carlos Zambrano ?
Anybody hear anything ?
God, I hope it involves slappy.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
it depends if it involves slappy
and then leads to us spending the same money on Hudson on top of taking on the money Zambrano’s owed I’m not sure how interested i’d be.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
well, if I could unload Castillo and sign Hudson for the same money, I'd do it.
in other words, I’d make the 2b “swap”, and add the Zambrano money to the payroll.
but my preference would be to just trade Castillo for a rosin bag, and sign Sheets.
how’s this for Sheets ………$12 million (what he wants), but guaranteed in stages……
example: $2 million for making the team out of ST.
$4 million for making it to the All Star break in one piece (making all scheduled starts)
$3 million for reaching Sept 1.
$3 million for making all remaining scheduled starts.
then (in the spirit of today)……….vesting option for 2011.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
What I'm saying is I wouldn't want to take on all of Zambranos contract
and “swap” second basemen, because to me that isn’t a swap when a guys owed 18 million the next 3 years, with another vesting option but I don’t think it’s an easily obtainable one.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
We have to do.....
We have to declare international vesting option day. Tomorrow will be derivatives day.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Zambrano made 18 mill last year
can’t see how a deal could go down. We’d add lots of payroll and have to give up prospects
I don't think we'd have to give up lots of prospects
with his NTC and all the money he’s owed I don’t see how they could move him and expect to get a major prospect package. He’s only owed 2 million less the next 3 years than Halladay is I believe, while giving you like half the production and, over the last 3 years he’s average around 3 WAR which is worth well less than 18 million.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
You make an excellent case for why he should be a Met.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
by fxcarden on Dec 29, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
yeah if they can get him without giving up much in terms of prospects
I’d be okay with it, but if they’re asking for legit prospect return I don’t think it’s worth it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 29, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Prospects are right
We will have to send a some prospects. I believe the Yankees approached the Cubs, about Zambrano, but the Cubbies were asking for too much in talent. I believe the asked for Hughes or Joba. I am not sure. Maybe someone can fact check me.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't doubt it...
Hendry’s about as flawed a GM as Minaya.
The Sports Pope has spoken
----Warner----
-------13-------
by Scent of a Woman on Dec 29, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
The face of a hater!
Of course, he can’t match up to God. He’s the Ultimate Hater.
Beer is good! And stuff!
the vesting option
is basically just insurance for injury. If he goes down big time, they are off the hook for that 5th year. Thats how I see it anyway.
I like bay. I think he is a good player and makes our team much better. Is holiday better? I think so… although the fact that he was not that great in Oak and had his best time in Colorado is a red flag (not a dealbreaker…). There are many things we dont know about. maybe Holiday doesnt wanna play for the mets. Maybe Boras was being a BorAss… who knows…
I dont like to cry over spilt milk and I dont like the what if game. We got a very very good LFer for a while now. He makes our team much better. This is a good day.
The problem is he's a very good left fielder now
and he’ll likely be in 2011 too, but by 2012 he’s likely going to start declining and we’ll still be on the hook for two more years after that.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
possibly.
its a little long… but we can prob count on very good years for 3/5 and good to avg for 2/5. He doesnt look to be the kind of guy that will regress quickly (I tend to think guys built on speed or large guys fall off quicker).
Plus, by then hopefully we have some younger guys sharing the OF with him (FMart, Newhousenfroid, future FA)… so it may not be the end of the world. Beltran is prob in the decline phase now, and I will still take him (Yes, he is much better then Bay… you get the point).
really really
not a fan of this back loaded deal. I would have rather that they swallow their pill now, when the other free agent options are few.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah especially if guys like Mauer/Crawford/Lee
actually do end up hitting the market next year.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
If Mauer/Crawford/Lee hits the market
the mets better be ready to throw anything they want to them.
I dont think they will say lack of budget for going after them.
Well they did it with Tex
which is why I’m not getting my hopes up for Crawford/Mauer, since if by some act of God they hit the open market they’ll be looking at 20 million+ deals.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Back-loaded contracts are generally better
Money paid today is more expensive than money paid in the future. If the team has to trade Bay in the future, it could just kick in the money to the new team to buy down the contract. Getting a player to accept back-loaded money is a generally a good thing.
The major negative drawback would be if he is still on the team and the FO holds the same budget as today….so it’s harder to sign a quality player in 4 years time.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
We don't know
if Bay is getting more total money because he accepted a back loaded deal. And it means paying him more when he’s worth less, which also makes him harder to trade.
He's not harder to trade
You might just have to kick in money to buy down the contract. That comes from the savings in the first few years. The backloaded contract is much more team-friendly.
Agreed with gbaked…it may affect future team-building…but back-loading also helps current team-building because the Mets can now afford a good pitcher (or two) under their current budget…whatever that may be.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think we should assume
that all back loaded contracts take this into account and if Omar wouldn’t have back loaded it it would have been 66-X for 4. With the contracts of Wright, Reyes, Santana, and Bay increasing, it’s just a short sighted move, which isn’t surprising with Omar fighting for his job.
Partially true
Still have to account for the probability that you’ll have to kick in the money in future. Some of that money should be spendable (is that a word?).
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, can you blame Omar
He was basically put in the lame-duck position after last year…so I’d be doing the same thing if I were him. Backload everything and hope that if you keep your job this year….a bunch of good, cheap prospects will come up in the future (Thole, Niese, Ike, F-Mart) and allow you to field competitive teams while still on a budget.
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
yeah that would be my other concern
that on top of the vesting option most early reports said the contract was going to be heavily backloaded. But gbaked is right that if we can finally start getting some cheap production, and Omar actually hangs onto the players, like the non-superstar but solid bench/utility ones, rather than trading them for peanuts and then overpaying old free agents to do the same thing, then we’ll be fine.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
also
if he really gets so bad that having him on the team is detrimental, it will be hard for him to meet a vesting option (Not knowing what that option is)
he'd have to fall a lot
say he puts up WARs of 3.0, 2.7, 2.4, 2.1. He’s clearly declining and now way overpaid, but still productive.
If the FO tells the manager to not play him because they don’t want his contract to vest, they’d have to have a viable better option who plays in his place.
If they play a replacement level OF for the last two months of 2013 just so Bay won’t meet his PA threshold, they’d probably get sued AND they’d lose credibility with future FAs, because who’s to say you won’t screw them over in the future.
Wasn’t that the argument against signing Lowe last year? It still did not stop some pretty smart people extolling the virtues of the deal Lowe sign with the Braves.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well the difference last year was that it wasn't whether to sign lowe or not to sign lowe
it was whether to spend 12 million on Ollie, or spend the extra 2 million on Lowe. If they werent basically already guaranteed to sign Ollie if they didn’t sign Lowe then I would have prefered signing someone like Wolf to either of them, I actually prefered Wolf to Ollie regardless, but there was pretty much no situation, other than signing Lowe instead, where we didn’t give Ollie an even worse contract.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Solid points
I too would have liked Wolf over those two. To be fair though, the per year difference is $2M, but the problem is the fourth year, which creates a sizable chasm is contract value between the two. Paying Lowe for that fourth year, $15M when he is likely to suck will hurt.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but we'd likely get near fair value the first 2 years
maybe even the third, where as with Ollie he probably will owe us money by the end of he contract.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Beltran's making him train in Arizona!
Seriously, if he’s at all decent next year, he becomes next offseasons Luis Castillo, the guy who we feel oh-so-close to trading and being rid of, but probably can’t quite get there.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Ollie would have to
Bounce back way better than Castillo did last year, and that’s saying a lot. Ollie makes twice as much as Luis, so he might be even harder to move even with the shorter contract.
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
The bounceback would have to be further
But I wouldn’t say its less expected. Ollie’s not a 6.00 tRA pitcher when healthy. And his strikeouts could be more attractive looking than Castillo’s OBP. I know its kind of a pipe dream to even consider trading him, but he likely will be better in 2010 than he was in 2009.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Well
It did not happen. Lowe did not pitch worth his contract the first year of the deal. Like I have said before, he is less likely to return to the mean at his age.
by Coolpapabell on Dec 29, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
By fangraphs WAR
Lowe was still worth 12 million, last year, unless he just falls off a cliff he’s still likely going to be much closer to being worth his contract that Ollie is.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
That cliff might have come last year
Lowe really was not good after May last year. His production from June on pretty much stunk…..
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yes. Thanks.
Are you being snarky? Asking a rhetorical question? Or are you making a point? I can’t tell.
Four months of pitching data (over 125 IP) isn’t really that small. But that’s where the “might have come last year” comes in, doesn’t it?
by MangoMetsFan on Dec 29, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
You are only looking at ERA though.
His BABIP was also insanely high in the second half. I think a lot of players’ seasons can be split into 3 good months and 3 bad months, or something similar.
Like for example if they had been planning on going after Dye
for even like 2/20 if they couldn’t sign Bay, then it would be different, I would be throwing up confetti at them signing Bay.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Well put
I agree. As long as the vesting option isn’t like $22 million as long as he plays in at least 200 games between 2012 and 2013, it should be fine. And we finally have a corner outfielder who can produce like a corner outfield, let alone an average NL shortstop. His defense will also be very interesting to watch, I have a feeling it might actually tick up in the first year or two, after that its harder to say.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
I think so too
Lets see what happens now that he doesn’t have the Green Monster to deal with (albeit a slightly lesser, and darker green monster).
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
Yup, he's not a bad runner
So its curious as to why his RngR has been so poor. I suspect it has more to do with all the funny angles and positioning for balls off the wall than his ability to run to spots. He probably doesn’t charge balls too well either, and his arm is poor, but there’s going to be less perceptual judgment involved and more open-field running, which I have a feeling is going to favor his skillset. He won’t be great, but I’m guessing closer to -5 than -10.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Are you sure that's true (that he's not a bad runner)?
He steals bases effectively (i.e. at a high success rate), but is it possible that that reflects good instincts/timing/coaching rather than good straight-line speed? I don’t really have any particular recollection of how fast he runs.
I suppose its possible
He may just be a good baserunner, but most scouting info I’ve read suggests that he’s about an average runner, and I just assumed all the belief that he’s the better defender has something to do with his running ability.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't a report say it had to do with his time at cf in Pittsburgh?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
A report did say that
Yet for some reason I feel like Omar et al can’t possibly be that stupid, so I took it with a grain of salt. I suppose I might give them too much credit.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
I don't think Omar's the only one who believes that
A lot of the scouting community seems to feel that way, but maybe my impression on that is wrong.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
he is a decent runner but I think more based on skill than any raw speed
In other words, he is not slow but he ain’t fast either.
Yeah thats more what I'm saying
I’m not saying he’s an above average runner, but closer to average than his RngR numbers suggest, and I’m speculating that will come more into play when tracking balls in the wide open spaces of CitiField than trying to judge distances up against the monster.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
It's only insurance...
… if the FOURTH year— a year they were going to give him— is a vesting option. Otherwise, it’s an added-year reward.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I likey
We needed a slugger for our lineup and to re-invigorate a team that hasn’t added much offensively in recent years. Beltra/Delgado/Wright/Reyes is an older tune. Now, a shot in the arm for next year.
Worth the money.
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
My hunch
is that this contract will look stupid compared to the long-term deal that Holliday will eventually sign with the Cards.
This.
Boras won’t have leverage any longer, while the Cards still have other options for LF (Winn, Byrd, etc.).
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Dec 29, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
I was saying this above, isn't that kind of a catch-22?
What if the Mets didn’t sign Bay? What if another team did? Then wouldn’t the Mets be in a position where they have to become a major market force for Holliday? It seems like Holliday’s market is going to get reduced because of this signing, but it wouldn’t have worked that way otherwise. I also have a feeling there’s going to be some outrage once Holliday does sign, but I’m not sure the Mets were in a position to negotiate themselves that kind of contract for him. As long as they were market players, Boras had a degree of leverage that he’s now lost, since the Mets were by far the most desperate player in the Bay/Holliday market.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
From Ken Rosenthal's article:
“The requirements for the option to vest should be easy for Bay to reach, according to the source. Bay has had 600 or more plate appearances in each of the last five years, and he does not have to come close to that to get the vesting option guaranteed.”
Why Omar, why? I like Jason Bay, but your stupidity is making me dislike this contract
Wait I'm not sure I understand
he has to get that but doesn’t have to come close?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
its like a 200PA option
so he doesnt have to come close to what he has been doing to get it.
Its basically a 5 year deal unless he loses a full season in year 4. Which would mean major injury.
Ooh yeah I see I misread
I thought it was saying Bay has to have 600 PA’s in each of the first four years of contract, which seemed like a weird vesting option to have.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Good Signing IMO
The Mets had to sign someone, it’s always good to have another bat. Certainly there wasn’t anything really that creative about this deal; the Mets overpaid because Omar isn’t exactly the best GM in the world, putting it mildly.
Everyone complains about the defense but Bay should be better in RF and by the way he slugs .500. Barring injuries, he will be a good hitter throughout the contract, IMO.
Isn’t it ironic that the Mets traded away Bay when he was a prospect in the system and now are paying $16M a year to him? Jason got the last laugh, that’s for sure.
Yeah that don't make no sense
He doesn’t have much of an arm
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I based that one one game in Bay's career in which he played RF for the Pirates
and had +104.2 UZR in that game, see:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF
it’s very scientific, I assure you. Omar will vouch for it.
Guys, stop reading the thesaurus, there are some better books out there, i.e.
Believe me, you and Omar can learn a lot from this woman.
How long til NY Post's first
“BAY OF PIGS” headline?
by saberkeith on Dec 29, 2009 3:51 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Never
Until Omar signs Molina.
President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club
by Hoyadestroya85 on Dec 29, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Per Metsblog
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com believes the vesting option could make the deal worth $80 million.
If true, that’s fine, it means the backloaded contract must de-escalate a bit, and it may be some kind of mutual vesting option where Bay can turn it down if he expects to get more than $14 million on the open market.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 3:54 PM EST reply actions
If Bay thinks he can get $14+ mil on the open market after 4 years
That is very good for us.
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
Exactly
And if not, its not a ridiculous option like Frankie’s, where he’s gonna get paid more than he did in any other year of the contract. It’ll probably be more than his projected value, but not a total albatross.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
imagine Bay's defense at 36
Also, using the current wins to $ ratio, Bay would have to have 3.55 WAR per season to make the deal worth it. That’s using the 5/80 contract.
Well there's going to be some inflation, so he won't have to be quite that good
I don’t expect him to be worth quite the value of this deal, but I don’t think the risk that he’s substantially worse is that huge either. I know you disagree, but I could see him averaging 3 WAR, at least over the first four seasons, maybe all five.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
sabermetrics aside
my gut tells me the defense and the defense alone will make this a rather bad contract overall but perhaps he can provide decent value in 2010 and 2011. I have a feeling he is actually worse in the field than the numbers would indicate not better.
Based on what?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
nothing scientific
I think he may be put off by Citifield and he may be starting to decline as well. I also think he is a good enough hitter that if scouts thought his defense was even average or passable he would have gotten more money from the Red Sox or Anaheim. But I am really speculating. I understand your point that he may turn out ok based on the lack of tricky angles at Citi and the other factors you mentioned. I hope you are right.
Fair enough
Maybe I’m just willing to be optimistic, but I’m pretty content with the risk involved. I like his offensive skillset. I think he can essentially replace Carlos Delgado’s production from his better years, and even if he fluctuates year to year a bit, he won’t necessarily decline offensively. He does draw more walks and have more raw power than Holliday. Sam was saying the other day he had a theory about Bay talking to a Pirate fan friend: He’s just an ultra-conservative style player. That’s his approach. His K% is high because he takes too many pitches, but it also leads to a lot of walks. He plays the same way defensively, generally taking conservative routes and not charging super hard. His raw athleticism may actually be of a similar quality to Holliday, but he just doesn’t have the same “bulldog” mentality. Maybe this will play well in terms of his durability? Pure speculation, but a thought nonetheless.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, $3.5 mil? Has the market really corrected itself that much?
I mean, is Marquis expected to be that much greater than 2 WAR next year? It seems like the market is paying out more than $3.5 mil per projected WAR right now. I’m not saying its not, just that I’m surprised if it really has come down that much. If that’s the case, then this is a pretty significant overpay, especially considering Bay isn’t really a superstar, and the extra money is probably going towards that perception and because superstars often get paid above market.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Well you have Marquis
then you also have guys like Mike Cameron being well underpaid. And really when you consider the contracts pitchers like Silva, and Ollie got, compared to what guys like Harden and Wolf have gotten I can see where the drop is coming from.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
No way, Mark.
A skillset like that, that declines quickly? He’ll be a sunk cost before the end of 2012.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
How does his skillset decline quickly?
His defense is already God awful, so I’m really not sure how much more awful it can’t get, and I don’t think theres any reason to think his offense will decline that rapidly.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I agree with that completely, I feel Bay at least will age well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 30, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Everywhere I've read about the signing, I've seen writers saying he will age badly.
His defense is bad, sure, but it absolutely could get worse. Brad Hawpe is a good comparison of how bad his defense could be in like 3 years.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
My guess, if the option does bring the total to $80 mil
Its something like $10 million, $18 million, $20 million, $16 million, option $16 million with $2 million buyout. $66 million guaranteed ($64 million over four years plus buyout), $80 million max.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 29, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
this is good news
if true. 80 M seems a bit low though
Damn it
We don’t even make an actual offer to Holliday. Unbelievable.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions
So, now onto the pitching staff
Do folks think it’s going to be Piniero?
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Sorry if this is a dumb question but
who’s option would the 5th year be? Is it the Mets option to pick it up or Bay’s? This is about what we expected them to sign him for. I’m mildly happy about this signing. It’s something. Now if only Pagan can beat out Frenchy for right field privileges we could be onto something.
Player option or mutual -- but not team's option
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Omar's Stubborness...
The chances of anyone beating out Francoeur for right field are about as low as the chances of not seeing Oliver Perez in the starting rotation.
by Nick Costanza on Dec 29, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
But now Francoeur is the 1st outfielder to be bumped by a prospect, so the Bay signing could lead to a trade or non-tender if F! tears it up.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or they'll bump Pagan
and extend Frenchy to be a 4th outfielder.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I just don't see Omar admitting defeat like that
From what we’ve seen, he likes Frenchy, and not much else matters than that.
by Nick Costanza on Dec 29, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
He seems to love Fernando too, and Frenchy will make alot.
The fact that he’s insisted on keeping Martinez out of so many trades certainly makes it more likely that he’d actually be able to supplant Francoeur.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
I accept your argument there...
But I think that is more likely to happen next year, or if Franceour is playing badly, but only in Omar’s opinion (because we all know his OBP is hideous, but Omar doesn’t seem to care).
by Nick Costanza on Dec 29, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Nice job
With the signing of Jason Bay, the Mets have just completed the requirements for a vesting option in 2010, of a 2nd place finish
If we finish second in 2010, I'll be both surprised, pumped up for 2011, and other, similar emotions.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
I guess that's what it's come down to...
But I’d never be pumped about a 2nd place finish with that kind of payroll.
by Nick Costanza on Dec 29, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
1st or 2nd, I don't really care.
Just get me some playoff baseball…
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
As things stand now, I'm expecting a third or (God forbid) fourth place finish in 2010.
Of course, as we all know VERY WELL, injuries and similar things can throw anyone’s season way out of whack, so one never knows. But, not ‘counting’ on things like that…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think too many people are looking at the 2009 Mets core performance as the new standard, as opposed to 2007-08.
I think a very fair baseline performance level is 87-88 wins, and Bay will be a very similar replacement to Delgado’s value. That type of production is more likely to make the Mets a 2nd place team than a 4th place team. I also feel like the Braves have taken a step back while the Marlins haven’t done anything. The Mets still do need to improve, but they are very much postseason contenders as things stand today.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think the Braves have stepped back
It seems like more than likely they’ve stayed even, so 87-88 wins could still lead to a 3rd place finish.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
They traded Vazquez and replaced him with Tim Hudson. At best thats a lateral move.
They replaced Soriano with Wags, again a lateral move at best. They replaced Gonzalez with Saito, and I’d say they definately have gotten worse there. They released Kelly Johnson, and are counting on Martin Prado maintaining his post July surge. Kotch/Laroche was probably better at 1st than Troy Glaus. They still haven’t replaced Anderson, but they don’t seem to have the money to make a big move. If everyone stays healthy (and there’s alot of health risks in that list), they are about the same as last year in their best case scenario. I really dislike their offseason thus far, and I’d be really surprised if they play as well as they finished last season.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
The Braves Off-season
According to BtB, “”http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/28/1221681/the-braves-off-season-playoff" target="new">I estimated 92.8 wins before the moves and 89.4 wins after them."
The Braves seem to have treaded water.
We still need a rotation, though. Say what you like about the core, the 2007-2008 rotation hadn’t yet been plagued by the injuries our current staff was attacked by.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 30, 2009 5:54 AM EST up reply actions
I'm completely aware that the 2009 season was a fluke, because of injuries. That said, I still don't see us finishing higher than third.
There’s way too many question marks, especially regarding the starting rotation. We have Santana, and then an assortment of Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, and whoever the fifth starter is, probably Niese, if we don’t trade/sign anyone. Santana is the only solid one, but even he’s coming off of surgery which can theoretically affect his play. Pelfrey, Reyes at short will help his defense behind him, but Castillo is still Castillo, and Pelf still has some issues to sort out. Maine, is he going to be healthy? I don’t know. Perez? Exactly. And, is Niese ready, or was his small sample size of decent success just a fluke?
Everyone else has problems and question marks too, of course, but I think that ours “outweigh” most of the other teams’ in this division.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think there's a decent chance Niese could be our second best starter.
Mostly because I have no faith in Maine/Perez and I imagine both him and Pelfrey will hover aronud average.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Nah, I think Pelfrey will have a 2010 a lot like 2008
Reyes will be there (hopefully!), so the defense for his sinker will be better than it was last season. He’ll be consistent, anyway, in any case- be it good or bad, hopefully good.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think Pelfrey will have a season like 08
because I really just don’t think Pelfrey is that good. I think he got lucky with his hr rate in 08 and he’s true talent is closer to a mid/high 4 ERA pitcher. He doesn’t get enough ground balls to compensate for his lack of missed bats, or vica-versa, and he wasn’t hasn’t developed a serviceable 3rd pitch/breaking ball.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Well i think he's better than a 5.02 ERA
I just think better is likely a 4.5-4.6 ERA and a 1.8-2.2 WAR pitcher.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Agreed
And also agreed that Niese could be the second best pitcher next year, but that’s assuming he comes into spring training fully healthy and in the exact same shape he was in before he went down at the end of 2009. Even then, he’s close to Pelf, but being a lefty with a deeper arsenal, a swing-and-miss type pitch, and a similar GB%, he might be able to put better numbers. Its just a question of how deep he can go into the season after being cut short last year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 30, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
slightly off topic but still related to possibile future Mets outfielders
What are the realistic chances the Mets could get Carl Crawford, maybe in a trade this summer if Tampa Bay is out of it or as a free agent? A 2011 outfield of Crawford, Bay and Beltran, with F! or Pagan as the fourth OF could make me forget about any def problems with Bay in 2010. I have to figure that Crawford is the best free agent the Mets could reasonably get as the Yankees will steamroll anybody who tries to grab Mauer or Lee.
Well for one
I’d be surprised if we could trade for Crawford without giving up F-mart. And even if we could I’d more surprised if the front office even considered bringing in more outfielders when they have Frenchy/F-mart/Pagan.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I'm actually ok with that, as I feel the deepest and strongest positions on the FA market next year will be starting pitching and catching.
Those will likely both be needs.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Catching will only be a need
if Thole doesn’t pan out. If he does that would be great, cheap production from the catcher’s spot. The starting pitching is the deepest, and that’s where the Mets should concentrate next offseason.
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
Thole shouldn't be counted on as the everyday starter, as he'd still get plenty of ab's as a backup.
Sign a guy thats capable of starting and get a real feel for what Thole can do at the ML level before giving him the position.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 29, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
The Rays are probably more willing to trade BJ Upton than Crawford
But for the right price I think Tampa might bite. But I say it’s more likely Upton leaves town.
by Nick Costanza on Dec 29, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Do you mean Justin of the D-Backs? I hope..
I’ll trade just about anyone for him.
BJ Upton has a world of talent
if they are giving up on him after one bad year, I’ll take him
Seriously we'd get Upton
they’d get our top 4 prospects, Reyes, Pagan and 40% of our revenue for the next 50 years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
to play where
He’s not a power guy and can’t play in the IF. The only way I want BJ is if you think he can play 2nd
He's not a power guy?
He had a down year, but he definitely projects to hit for power.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
But that being said I don't see any reason the Rays would trade him
since he’s under team control for a while and Crawford isn’t, not to mention he’s younger and likely with more upside.
It’s weird to think crawford is only like 3 years older though. I feel like crawford’s been around longer than Jason Bay, yet he’s only 28.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
ok but if F! goes in the trade
I think Tampa may bite. and I think even this front office knows that Crawford is better than Frenchy and Pagan.
offer F! and Holt
and see how they respond. I would be talking to them now about this.
uh oh
now Jon Heyman says there are medical issues with Bay and the physical could turn into “a marathon”. I don’t like the sound of that.
link, please
and that would be cool, since apparently Boras / Holliday have dropped their price.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
can't link to it for some reason
its on his twitter account and I basically stated what he said verbatum. No idea if he knows what he is talking about
Come on people cant you see??
I can’t believe Omar refuses to sign American players, this guy Jason Bay is friggin Canadian!! Why Omar?? Why do you put us throught this misery?? Please trade for Jason Marquis or a local guy!! Are any of the Jersey Shore guys available? Please sign American players, this is America for Heaven’s Sake!!
Well, at least that's not a rehash of the ol' "Hispanic player" trope...
What does a player’s ethnicity or nationality have to do with anything, though? As long as they win, right?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 29, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
Considering he referenced Jersey Shore
I’m guessing he was joking
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The situation for 2nd base?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I've never been so sure of a comment being sarcastic.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Someone explain to me why this deal is "heavily back-loaded."
What, did we decide to absolutely fuck ourselves over for the last 2-3 years of the contract? Have Jason Bay producing 2 WAR for $23 mil in his vesting option or something?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
It makes sense for a team to backload a contract
Market inflation across the years makes WAR more expensive, so by the 5th year it won’t be as bad as it seems now. Not that it won’t be bad…
Travis Hafner is made of gold
Who knows what the market will be then, though.
All I know is this contract is going to be an albatross, guaranteed. 100% likelihood.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Really??
It’s not as if Bay is fat or out of shape. Yes, he’ll likely decline, but I don’t see any reason as to why he’ll totally collapse
Right, but squid92 thinks he'll completely collapse almost immediately
I mean, if Ibanez can post a 4.2 WAR season at the age of 36, why the hell can’t Bay?
That only happened because for some reason
the baseball gods shine on the phillies and shit on us.
Jason Bay will probably injure himself in some way where we won’t be able to stop the contract from vesting, but he’ll provide (-) value to us for the last 3 years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Exactly!
All The Training Staff need to do is pump Bay up full of Steroids (he already has plenty of grission) and he’ll be good. Of course you have to brace for the inevitable ligament injury followed by ineffectiveness.
President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club
by Hoyadestroya85 on Dec 30, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions
pump him full of hgh too
the ligament injury will heal
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
To an extent it does
But I’m not sure it makes a contract backloaded by paying a guy 10 million his first season and 20 million his third, I don’t think the market is going to inflate that much. there’s just no conceivable way Bay will be worth 20 million in his 4th year.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The problem with this
While its economically true in a vacuum that $1 today is worth more than $1 guaranteed a year from now, a backloaded contract is also inherently harder to trade. No large, long-term contract is easy to trade in its first few years, but at the end of it, the backloaded vs. not backloaded cost difference becomes a big issue in trade negotiations. I’m still not terribly upset that the contract is backloaded. I think it assumes that at least one of Beltran or Reyes won’t be back after 2011, but that may be likely anyway. But backloading contracts isn’t necessarily wise just because the value of money becomes lower when the time period is extended. It also means the total contract value for the player has to be slightly larger, assuming his agent understands basic economic principles, and it also means he’s going to be harder to trade by the end of it, which is very applicable for a player like Bay, who many believe won’t be an acceptable defensive player by his last few years and may be much better suited to the AL.
I also think/hope the “backloaded” issue is overblown, and that while his salary may start low and increase, it may also de-escalate by his last year, which makes sense if the value of his option is equal to or less than the AAV of the contract . If the option year is ~$15 million (about what it would be if it takes the total value of the deal to a bit over $80 million), it seems unlikely he’d be getting paid $20 million in the final guaranteed year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 30, 2009 2:20 AM EST up reply actions
The difficulty of trading is really just a financial fiction though
If the team provides the dollar difference in value along with the trade, they would still be paying the same money two years later, effectively giving them the time value advantage. I assume that the agents understand the concepts well enough to dodge any time value arbitrage, but the difficulty of trading a player is not a reason to avoid backloading a contract, it’s just a reason to include money in the deal.
The bigger problem, from the teams perspective, is the public relations side. Fans will consider a contract an albatross, even if the team received positive value in the first x years of the contract. That means that even though they already received an extra y million in value, they can’t include a portion of that in a trade, since then the fans will think the initial deal was bad.
Because Bengie's got a large rear end.
Oh, wait, this is the Jason Bay thread. My bad.
#Bengie Molina Fat.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 30, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
Wow--a startlingly bad signing.
( Assuming 5/82 when the option vests. )
Jason Bay’s WAR:
2007: 0.0
2008: 2.9
2009: 3.5
I’ll play nice and for no reason other than demonstrating how bad this deal is credit Bay with 2.5 WAR in 2007. With a 321 projection, no regression, and only the standard, accumulating 1/2 win age-related decline (there being nothing indicating Bay will age better or worse than the typical ML regular, and I’ll even give him immunity for 2010) factored in, we get the following projection for 2010-2014
2010: 3.1
2011: 2.6
2012: 2.1
2013: 1.6
2014: 1.1
That’s 10.5 WAR for the rumored $82 million. And that’s barring catastrophic injury. Since Bay is not going to turn into a 45 HR or .330 hitter, and since OFers who get noticeably better on defense as they progress through their 30s are scarcer than hen’s teeth, there’s no reason other than brave hope to think this is other than a bad, bad signing. I’ll grant there’s a 10-15% chance that the Mets will get 80% of their money’s worth, but this is a truly bad deal. And fans throughout the greater NY Metropolitan region will be wondering, as we move into the 2010s, what could have happened. “Bay was such a good player!” So was Kevin McReynolds.
The particularly unfortunate part of this deal is that even if Bay doesn’t decline from his 2008-2009 level—something that would make him unlike 95% of all other 3 WAR hitters in the mjors—he’s STILL not worth this contract.
well aren't we mr. sunshine
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 5:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
lol. Don't shoot the messenger.
I gave him 2.5 WAR for a season he was replacement level, I didn’t regress him to the mean, I didn’t dock him extra for his defense moving into Citi, I didn’t dock him for moving into what is slightly a pitcher’s park, and all this assumes normal rather than catastrophic, injury-related decline.
So, yeah, actually, I was reasonably optimistic.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 30, 2009 5:25 AM EST up reply actions
How did you project his WAR for the final 3 years?
Because as bad as his defense is already, that kind of dropoff would require a massive, massive, massive drop off in his offense, which I’m not exactly sure will happen.
Oh, and I think this is an OK signing, so I guess I have “brave hope”
I don't believe that's the case.
It simply projects him to get slightly worse every year, which is the overall trend for past-prime ballplayers. They tend to lose 7-12% of their value every year. Losing half a win each year, progressively, simply means losing about five runs worth of skills each year. A 15 point drop in obp or a 20 point drop in slugging added to a UZR that declines by only 2 or 3 runs, and you’ve dropped half a win.
And most ballplayers, even very good ones (and Bay is merely good, a 3 WAR player) are reduced to part-time roles in their early 30s, and are gone by their mid-30s. It’s just life. And baseball.
How do you explain people like Raul Ibanez and Johnny Damon?
Both are old and both have reputations as being terrible, but both have been able to maintain 2+ WAR seasons well into their 30’s.
Bay has been worth at least 32 runs offensively three of the last four years, and he is only 31. Is it really that likely he’ll drop off 5 runs a year offensively as soon as he turns 33?
My point is, unless Bay suddenly becomes Adam Dunn-like defensively which is not likely given his body type, I sincerely doubt he’ll become a below 2 WAR at the age of 34.
Perhaps I’m being way too optimistic, but I just don’t see as rapid a drop-off as you do.
They played in parks where if they coughed, they would hit a homerun?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Those are just two examples though
And even if Bay stays at 3.1 WAR for 5 years, he isn’t worth the contract
don't forget ibanez was also ITBSOHL this past year
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 30, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
in the best shape of his life
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
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