Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Along The Olentangy for Ohio State Fans!

Project Jason Bay's Defense

Defense will play a pivotal role in determining if 31 year-old Jason Bay is worth his massive contract. Given the following information, project his corner outfield defense:

(he played about 150 games each of the last three seasons)

UZR

-13 runs in 2009, -42.9 runs from 2007-2009

Fans projection: -11.6 runs

Jeff Zimmerman projection:-11 runs

Plus/Minus

-4 runs in 2009, -17 runs from 2007-2009

TotalZone

+7 runs in 2009, -28 runs from 2007-2009

CHONE projection: -4 runs

Poll
Project Jason Bay's defense, per 150 games played
5 < x < 10 runs
24 votes
0 < x < 5 runs
31 votes
-5 < x < 0 runs
90 votes
-10 < x < -5 runs
134 votes
-15 < x < -10 runs
48 votes
x < -15 runs
21 votes

348 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I voted between -10 and -5

Probably an appropriate time to bring this back up (comments section, too):

Do Speed, Pitching, and Defense get leveraged in a large park? | THE BOOK—Playing The Percentages In Baseball

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions  

Awhile ago, right?

Just thought it was appropriate to bring it back up.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

To what extent does an excellent CF/RF counteract a poor LF?

Couldn’t they just take 3 big steps to the right and reduce Bay’s coverage zone?

Also, how poor would Ike Davis be in the OF and Bay at 1B? Is there anyway to estimate that or would it just be a guess?

by hotspur on Dec 30, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

Probably just a guess

in limited sample size Dunn has been worse at first than lf, I .on’t think there’s really any realway to measure a career outfielders ability in the IF with numbers,

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Some.

You’re right that they can cheat a little bit to reduce the area the weak LFer has to cover, but it’s not free. Let’s say the normal distribution (the area of the OF each OFer covers) is 30-40-30. If your RF is only a “25” and the CFer, a 42, cheats towards LF, that means your RFer has to be an above average defender (a 33, when the average RFer is a 30, otherwise more balls will fall in the gap, or down the line, or both

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 1, 2010 3:24 AM EST up reply actions  

I'mshocked by the votes for +5-10+

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah I thought -5<-10 would be the most reasonable

I know Manny’s numbers improved when he went to the Dodgers, at least at first which I suppose is too small of a sample size to really say anything, so I imagine the Green Monster at least isn’t helping him, but I do worry about a decline.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like a 'conservative fielder'

such as Mr. Bay will fare a bit better in a large, not as ‘tricky’ outfield because he can just run after things rather than worry about where the wall is or how to play the caroms. He’s not a heavy, bulky guy and doesn’t run poorly. I would imagine he will not be too much of a liability out there, and unless his knees start to fail him I would think he wouldn’t regress too sharply (at least over the first two or three years). I would think someone more like Holliday would begin to slow down, he is built like a truck; a bulky man is more likely to have his speed regress than the lanky man Bay is.

Travis Hafner is made of gold

by Super Mario on Dec 30, 2009 3:26 PM EST reply actions  

I don't know how Holliday is so highly rated

I’ve watched him play the outfield enough, and he’s very awkward out there. I’ve seen him dive many an ill-fated time. Even though it was a small sample size (I’m not even counting the playoff blunder), he has always struck me as a very bad outfielder.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Dec 30, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah agreed

I understand the eyes are very deceiving when it comes to defense, but with defensive metrics still having some issues matching up with each other I think some subjectivity can be allowed (though not to base the heart of an argument on obviously). He seems to have good range and is very bullish…
Question to anyone – say Matt Holliday dives for five balls a year that he shouldn’t really, makes two of the outstanding catches and misses three so that those three singles turn into triples but aren’t ‘errors’ in the box score because it was a difficult play, does this get reflected as a positive factor because he caught two and the others were not technically errors?

Travis Hafner is made of gold

by Super Mario on Dec 30, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

In other words, the average OFer lets 5 singles drop,

while Holliday gives up three triples while recording two outs? I’m pretty sure UZR would credit him with positive numbers for those five events.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 1, 2010 3:28 AM EST up reply actions  

As long as those three triples don't end up scoring...

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 1, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted -10 to -5, with a leaning towards the -5.

Like Mario says above, I think that the large, spaciousness of Citi Field will make things easier for him. All he’s gotta do is run and catch the ball.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 30, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

The_buddha_by_lord_karsus_small
PokéMets
Small
Clearly, I Need Baseball Etiquette Training
Jerryjeffy_copy_small
How To Make The 2011 Mets A World Series Caliber Team

Recent FanPosts

Images-1_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #10
Img_1435_small
This Week in Mets Quotes
Small
Should the Mets Trade Beltran?
Small
2011, What Changes to make?
Images-1_small
Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #9
Axolotl_small
WAR/$ and The Real Value of MVP
Small
A Quick Analysis of David Wright's 3 Year Trend

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

A summary of the 2010 Mets season. Tony Bernazard would have been more appropriate for this video,...
My Dickey will go on.
Getting back into the Dickey Photoshop spirit. Because I can. Enjoy!
I'd like to introduce you to the new management team of McDonalds on Northern Boulevard in Flushing!

The staff (from R to L): Jerry Manuel, Omar Minaya, Jeff Wilpon, Jeff Francoeur, Razor Shines, Alex Cora, John Maine, Luis Castillo, Tony Bernazard and Oliver Perez.

Embiggen here.
Deadspin: Omar accosted whilst flying coach

Recent FanShots

This is really jeff Wilpon...
Bill Gallo: This guy gets it right when I can figure out what he's saying.
A grammar message from Dan Warthen to all of us.
Santana Scratched, Gee to Debut
Colby Rasmus on His Way Out of St. Louis?
Mets interested in Darvish?
Gee, Evans, Valdes to join Mets in Washington

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Sponsors

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Texas Rangers Michael Young, left, is held back by Texas Rangers third base coach Dave Anderson (obscured) after being called out at third by third base umpire Alfonso Marquez, front right, to end a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Sunday, Sept. 5, 2010, in Minneapolis.  Rangers manager Ron Washington (wearing sunglasses) looks on. The Twins won 6-5. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia) +1 updates

Twins Top Rangers 6-5 Thanks To Controversial Ump Decision

LOS ANGELES CA - SEPTEMBER 04:  Jamey Carroll #14 of the Los Angeles Dodgers is pulled off the bag as Darren Ford #34 of the San Francisco Giants steals second base in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 4 2010 in Los Angeles California. The Giants defeated the Dodgers 5-4.  (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images) +1 updates

Dodgers' Slide Continues With 3-0 Loss To Rival Giants

BOSTON - SEPTEMBER 05: Jonathan Papelbon #58 of the Boston Red Sox heads for the dugout after he is pulled in the ninth inning against the Chicago White Sox on September 5 2010 at Fenway Park in Boston Massachusetts.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

White Sox Score Four In 9th, Hand Jonathan Papelbon His Seventh Blown Save Of 2010

More from SBNation.com >


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Endy_small Rob Castellano

Forecheckah_small Sam Page

Aaavatar_small Mark Himmelstein

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

Metsstitches_small Eno Sarris

THE NEWS GURU

Piazza_small Joe Budd

THE POET LAUREATE

Hamheadshot__1__small Howard Megdal