Project Jason Bay's Defense

by James Kannengieser on Dec 30, 2009 11:02 AM EST Comment 19 comments

Defense will play a pivotal role in determining if 31 year-old Jason Bay is worth his massive contract. Given the following information, project his corner outfield defense:

(he played about 150 games each of the last three seasons)

UZR

-13 runs in 2009, -42.9 runs from 2007-2009

Fans projection: -11.6 runs

Jeff Zimmerman projection:-11 runs

Plus/Minus

-4 runs in 2009, -17 runs from 2007-2009

TotalZone

+7 runs in 2009, -28 runs from 2007-2009

CHONE projection: -4 runs

Poll

Project Jason Bay's defense, per 150 games played

5 < x < 10 runs

24 votes

0 < x < 5 runs

31 votes

-5 < x < 0 runs

90 votes

-10 < x < -5 runs

134 votes

-15 < x < -10 runs

48 votes

x < -15 runs

21 votes

348 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 19 comments |

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Comments

Oops, I voted for 5-10 positively

I mean 5-10 negatively

by Syler on Dec 30, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions

I voted between -10 and -5

Probably an appropriate time to bring this back up (comments section, too):

Do Speed, Pitching, and Defense get leveraged in a large park? | THE BOOK—Playing The Percentages In Baseball

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions

I fanshoted and fanposted about that

by EtSuKe on Dec 30, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Awhile ago, right?

Just thought it was appropriate to bring it back up.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

To what extent does an excellent CF/RF counteract a poor LF?

Couldn’t they just take 3 big steps to the right and reduce Bay’s coverage zone?

Also, how poor would Ike Davis be in the OF and Bay at 1B? Is there anyway to estimate that or would it just be a guess?

by hotspur on Dec 30, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions

You could try messing with the Fan's scouting report.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Probably just a guess

in limited sample size Dunn has been worse at first than lf, I .on’t think there’s really any realway to measure a career outfielders ability in the IF with numbers,

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

You’re right that they can cheat a little bit to reduce the area the weak LFer has to cover, but it’s not free. Let’s say the normal distribution (the area of the OF each OFer covers) is 30-40-30. If your RF is only a “25” and the CFer, a 42, cheats towards LF, that means your RFer has to be an above average defender (a 33, when the average RFer is a 30, otherwise more balls will fall in the gap, or down the line, or both

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 1, 2010 3:24 AM EST up reply actions

I'mshocked by the votes for +5-10+

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:10 PM EST reply actions

Maybe they messed up and meant -5<-10

I’m projected -10 myself.

by EtSuKe on Dec 30, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I thought -5<-10 would be the most reasonable

I know Manny’s numbers improved when he went to the Dodgers, at least at first which I suppose is too small of a sample size to really say anything, so I imagine the Green Monster at least isn’t helping him, but I do worry about a decline.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Dec 30, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

I'm changing to -8 now

by EtSuKe on Dec 30, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I feel like a 'conservative fielder'

such as Mr. Bay will fare a bit better in a large, not as ‘tricky’ outfield because he can just run after things rather than worry about where the wall is or how to play the caroms. He’s not a heavy, bulky guy and doesn’t run poorly. I would imagine he will not be too much of a liability out there, and unless his knees start to fail him I would think he wouldn’t regress too sharply (at least over the first two or three years). I would think someone more like Holliday would begin to slow down, he is built like a truck; a bulky man is more likely to have his speed regress than the lanky man Bay is.

Travis Hafner is made of gold

by Super Mario on Dec 30, 2009 3:26 PM EST reply actions

I don't know how Holliday is so highly rated

I’ve watched him play the outfield enough, and he’s very awkward out there. I’ve seen him dive many an ill-fated time. Even though it was a small sample size (I’m not even counting the playoff blunder), he has always struck me as a very bad outfielder.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Dec 30, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah agreed

I understand the eyes are very deceiving when it comes to defense, but with defensive metrics still having some issues matching up with each other I think some subjectivity can be allowed (though not to base the heart of an argument on obviously). He seems to have good range and is very bullish…
Question to anyone – say Matt Holliday dives for five balls a year that he shouldn’t really, makes two of the outstanding catches and misses three so that those three singles turn into triples but aren’t ‘errors’ in the box score because it was a difficult play, does this get reflected as a positive factor because he caught two and the others were not technically errors?

Travis Hafner is made of gold

by Super Mario on Dec 30, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions