2009 vs. 2010

I think it’s more an indictment of SI’s inability to make good predictions than any indication that the Mets were any sort of a “great” team going into last season. Assuming good health for the full season, the team right now looks like maybe an 89-win team, probably what the 2009 version would have been if everyone had stayed on the field.

Of course we’ll do better than 2009, because the team won’t lose like 20 guys to injuries this year, hopefully. That said, the actual talent on this team is worse than 09, almost entirely because of the weak rotation and the downgrade from Church to Frenchy, as Delgado is about equal to Bay and Molina is only marginally better than Schneider.

could it ?

It’s hard not to be better than 2009, even for the mets.

1) The SI projection was optimistic about guys like Putz and Oliver Perez. One was an injury washout, the other a disaster.

2) There are real, lingering questions about the health of Reyes and Beltran, the matuartion of Pelfrey, and the power of Wright, going into 2010.

3) Livan and Maine, respectively, went 204 IP of 96 ERA+ ball and 190 IP of 110 ERA+ ball in 2007. While both fell off the next year both in ERA and IP, a rebound from either would have been great. Now, we have reason to be sketpical about Maine, who averaged 111 IP the last two years with an ERA+ of 98; and are asking Jon Niese to be an innings eater.

4) K-Rod and Johan aren’t as good as they were in 2008. That’s not to say they’re anything other than great, but still not as good.

5) The Mets systemic failure to deal with injuries, from both an organizational depth perspective, and a rehab management perspective, is atrocious, and has been exposed as such.

The line-up at the start of 2009 had an injury free Jose Reyes, and “I’m in the best shape of my life and my knees feel great” Luis Castilo, an injury free Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado coming off of a very strong second-half push, David Wright sans any problems, and so on. The line-up at the start of 2010 has Jose Reyes fresh off of injuries, Luis Castillo, Carlos Beltran fresh off of injuries, David Wright who had a perplexing season, that some aren’t sure isn’t an anomaly.

I don’t believe that the above players down years last season will be reflective of their performance in 2010, but lingering question marks lead to doubts, and doubts lead to conservative judgment.

The more important questions:

1) How much better?

2) Will it be enough to contend or (dare I say) win?

Probably also should have mentioned the whole throwing the ball to first when no ones there to catch it thing…cough cough Anderson Hernandez. Someone really needs to make a list of all the random/ridiculous/horrible/idiotic things that have happenend to the Mets in 2009 compiled together. I would but…I honestly don’t believe I have the patience to basically re-live that entire season again.

A lot of people did pick them to win last year, but I wasnt one of them, I knew the pitching couldn’t last a year. I was suspect of Perez and Maine before last year. I was hoping for a better showing out of Livan, I really thought he would be abetter #5 starter than he was. although he had some decent outtings in the early going with no run support. I hope Niese comes off surgery and picthes well, and I actually liked Figgy last year and think he could be a key spot starter this year/ long relief. I would really like to see him used 3-4 innings in relief when we are getting shelled or when we have a big lead for him to throw a 3 inning save.

as far as hitting, I think the way you compare 09 to 10 is by hoping Bay fills the gap that Delgado left in the lineup( give him credit for a great 07), and count on Francouer being more consistent than Church. If Molina signs we are ahead of Schneiders bat easily, but how is he at calling a game we will see, but I think he is an upgrade altogether. so in all we would have a more potent lineup.