New Year's Eve Applesauce - More Bay reactions, 2009 Met defense, Aroldis Chapman update
by Joe Budd on Dec 31, 2009 8:24 AM EST
in Applesauce
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Phew, just a few more hours left in the decade. Not the best decade in Mets' history, but it could have been A LOT worse.
Meet the Mets
More reactions to the Jason Bay signing. Jeff Pearlman says it's going to be a huge bust a la George Foster. Jeff Passan criticizes the signing because the Mets still are too cheap in the minor league draft. Ted Berg responds to this criticism. Pat Gallen has a Philadelphia angle on the signing, saying that Bay will suffer Citi Field's wrath.
Just to add some nice thoughts to your morning: Jason Bay's physical is no sure thing.
Patrick Flood takes on the "myth" that the 2009 Mets defense was bad.
Around MLB
Former Brave second baseman and Met killer Kelly Johnson has signed on with Arizona.
Royals Review warns all KC fans that they're only one season away from a Greinke trade.
Oakland has jumped into the Aroldis Chapman bidding.
And, finally, Mike Bordick has joined the Baltimore front office as a roving small ball coach.
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I had no idea UZR and +/- didn’t account for bear attacks.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Dec 31, 2009 8:33 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Royals Review warns all KC fans that they're only one season away from a Greinke trade.
I am going to write that one on a post-it note and put it on my work monitor for any time I complain about the Mets during the season.
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Dec 31, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions
Lol supposedly the only reason he didnt get traded before last season
is that KC pulled him off the trading block once they realized teams were falling over themselves to make offers and figured there must be a reason so many other teams wanted him.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Applesauce
Love the Phillies Nation article. Bay was apparently decent as a fielder, but below average at the same time. Anyway, reading the comments section, though, it’s kind of funny- some of the Phillies fans are giving the team more credit than some of us are. This is the funniest quote, though: “…[T]he Mets are the rich guy with no hands who paid for a nose job.”
I feel bad for the Royals. I’d want Grienke just as much as anyone else, but I hope he stays with K.C. He seems a kinda quirky guy, and given everything that he’s been through, I kinda get the feeling that he’s the kind of person who would take a little less money to stay with “his” team.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions
Really I'd feel bad for him
he apparently knows/follows advanced metrics, it would suck to be that talented, and know how stupid your front office is and that as long as their in tack your team will never amount to anything.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
he also suffers from anxiety attacks
do we really want this kid coming to the mets? he’d have a breakdown in a year
It wouldn't take THAT long.
Even.
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
Funny quote...
I don’t disagree that the Mets are a rich guy with no hands who pays for a nose job, but I’m still trying to understand all the nuances of that metaphor.
Like, for instance, how did they sign agreement for said nose job?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 2, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Flood
I like that he took on UZR a bit. I really believe some put far too much credence in the dollar values and WAR values that are partially UZR derived. It is great to have this data, but treating it as gospel in player valuation goes too far. Same with Sam’s piece on Bay and his fielding metrics under Dewan, Total Zone and UZR and the fenway effect, etc. A lot of the Bay signing criticism is based on his UZR, and while it may not be a great deal, Ted Berg’s take, it isn’t such an indictment as it is being made out to be by some.
And Neyer’s pice does make a rare mistake by him: relying on Adam Rubin and Mets minor league team records to judge the current farm system.
by wobatus on Dec 31, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
meant to say
I agree with Ted Berg’s take on the Bay trade.
So Jeff Pearlman's take is that Bay is the next George Foster
not because he thinks he is going to be a bad and disappointing player, but because Citi Field (and the great insight Pearlman has gleaned from one season of baseball there) mandates that the Mets recreate WhiteyBall. God what a pile of puke.
I really like The Bad Guys Won, but I’m starting to think Jeff hasn’t really followed baseball much outside of the “Steroids Outrage” since the 80s.
A lot of these guys are really good writers
Pearlman, Klapisch, Lennon, a few others, but their analysis is just piss-poor. It’s rare when an MSM writer can combine strong reporting, writing and analysis.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 31, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
You mean...
..like you do, James? Not a snark, I truly admire your skills.
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
I gave it my all
I took it one day at a time. I gave 110%.
Seriously though, thanks for the kind words, even if I don’t deserve them most of the time.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 31, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly Johnson
$2.35 million 1 year deal. What are the chances he out-WARs Castillo this year?
$350k more than the Mets are paying Cora
well done, Omar
by JoshNY on Dec 31, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Johnson can't play ss
the fact that Cora can’t either is irrelevant.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Dec 31, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
A tolerable starter for a few bucks more than Cora?
It’s almost like Omar doesn’t know what he’s doing.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 31, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
The way every journalist is bashing the Bay signing
gives me more confidence that he’ll be just fine. They needed a LF, he was the second best LF available. Yes, they overpaid a bit, wtf is the big deal? There are far worse things to bash the Mets for – Perez, Castillo, Cora, Molina when it happens.
I’ve not seen one writer mention that Bay has a higher career OPS than Carlos Beltran. By 40 points. Yes, he may struggle in the field. He’s also not Todd Hundley out there. I think the majority of LFs are not that terrific in the field, that’s why they are in LF.
The main reason people are bashing the Bay signing
is because Holliday, who not only hits well but fields very well, was out there
If Holliday wasn’t a FA, the backlash to Bay would be significantly less.
Regardless, I’m happy we did get Bay.
If Holliday gets his reported $130 or so million, I'd say we chose wisely.
by BigBoyJacobs on Dec 31, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
that report was debunked
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
It's not just that, it's paying 5/82 for a DH.
Bay’s a terrific hitter who’s ill-suited for the NL. He’s also a 3 WAR guy who will have to be the rare player who doesn’t decline as he enters his mid-30s for this to be a tolerable—not good, just tolerable—contract. The Mets are on very thin ice with this signing, and I suspect that with Bay and Santana growing old at the same time there are going to be real problems filling out the roster in 2012 and 2013 with something like $35m committed to the two of them.
I'd say maintain a value of at least 2.5 - 3 WAR for the first 4 years
and I won’t consider it a total wash. Still a few too many years IMO but that would at least make this tolerable. I doubt this happens however.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 1, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Fair question.
Assuming the option vests, the AAV is 16.4. I don’t believe contracts are going to continue to escalate at 10% per year; let’s call it 5%, with another 5% or so for monetary inflation. That gives us, very roughly
2010: 16.4
2011: 14.8
2012: 13.1
2013: 11.3
2014: 9.4
Summing to $63 million in today’s dollars. So, if 1 WAR= roughly $4 million, then Bay needs to put up 15.75 wins over the next five years, or 3.15 WAR per season. That’s not impossible, but it means Bay, a 3 WAR player, is immune to the effects of aging through his age 35 season. That’s very unlikely. Not impossible, sure, but I’ve projected him to put up around 10 WAR over the next 5 years. I think the Mets overpaid by at least $20 million.
Is it charted anywhere
at how many of Bays homeruns from last year would have left citifield. All 36 of them regardless of which parks he hit them in. I’m only looking for an apple to apples comparison on distance regardless of ANY other factors.
From HitTracker
By my count, 17 of his 36 last year would be home runs in any park. 13 are in the 20-29 ball park range, so some of those would count too. Maybe someone wants to overlay CitiField on his chart?
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_4499&type=hitter
Anyway, remember in half his games he won’t be hitting in CitiField.
i wonder how many of those ones right on the other side of the wall
would have made it over.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
it depends on what team they are hit against.
if Phillies or Yankees……..none.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
I am guessing a good number of them...
remember, Bay played with the green monsters 37 foot high wall last year in half of his games.
that stupid outfield configuration pisses me off every time I see it
“LOOK AT US! OUR STADIUM IS QUIRKY!”
by JoshNY on Dec 31, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No love for the Mo Zone, I take it...
What happens when/if Modells goes out of business, and/or chooses not to sponsor that corner, I wonder?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
What I don’t like about it is the extremely high walls near the LF foul pole and in Francie’s corner (can we call it that now?).
Remember when Jose Reyes hit what would’ve been the game tying HR in the 12th inning against the Braves but it hit the wall instead and he only made it to 2nd? Then Mike Gonzalez finished it off with Reyes standing on third despite his usual command issues? Would’ve been a homer if the walls weren’t so ridiculous.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
I don't think anyone likes the high walls
The dimensions, fine. I like a big park. The walls, though? No.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
yeah i have no problem with the deep walls
or the odd configuration, but they’re monsterously high.
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 31, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
so ffing annoying
whose bright idea was that. lets have a jigsaw wall so we can look more gritty when fielding
by cuseindahuse on Dec 31, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
It might actually be a Met-friendly idea...
since the quirks would tend to favor players who are familiar with them, namely the home team. I’m surprised more teams haven’t gone quirky.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 31, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
The overlay is great. By my count 25 of these could have clealry made it. I didn’t count the ones touching the wall. But I’m guessing they still had a chance. He had 15 at Fenway and 21 away. If Bay ends up with 10 at home and 10 on the road then I think the Mets should hire a full time psychologist for their power hitters.
The Mets should hire no medical professionals. I would not trust any medical personelle hired by the team right now.
A team psychologist probably would emotionally scar our players, in trying to help.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
in some reports it actually sounds like the medical staff knows what they're doing
the front office/jerry just don’t listen.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
A Mets psychologist might bring back supressed memories.
Maybe Wrights bad season was caused by remembering how Uncle Tony B. would take his shirt off then threaten him
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Jan 1, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
When you do an overlay like this,
remember that if he hits a lot of balls to a short porch, he also hit a few balls in that spot in bigger parks, so when you take away home runs in right/right center, you may also add home runs in left that failed to make it out of Detroit, for example…
Still...most of the shots in this graph are 350 or better, which gives them a good shot to go out.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
The home runs to LF at Fenway have to go over a rather large wall, too.
I think his power to right is hurt more by Citi, and he seems to hit more HR’s to LF. At any rate, a lot of them will be doubles and triples. And any extra base hit (as long as there are a lot of them) will do.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Jan 1, 2010 3:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There was a report inthe MSM
ESPN or something that said Bay would have had 30 HRs last year if he played with the Mets. Don’t knwo what methodology they used or anything.
The Mets have said they preferred Bay because he is more of a dead pull hitter vs. Holliday whom they said was more of a gap hitter.
Also
Bay played center field once, so he’s obviously a better defender.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
OT
but I’d just like to express my happiness that the NETS WON LAST NIGHT! 3-29 baby (dammit, there needs to be a SB Nation Nets blog)!
Beating the Knicks is kind of sweet too, since the only thing I’m hoping for from the Nets (other than the top pick in June’s draft) is to take the season series from the tri-state rivals.
Also, Ted Berg continues to be awesome.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Dec 31, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions
niiiice
i thought i was the only nets/mets fan in here. Yi is tearing it up.
"I used to be legit. I was too legit. I was too legit to quit. but now I'm not legit. I'm unlegit. And for that reason, I must quit."
I think there's at least 5 or 6 of us
We talk the Nets every so often around here since there’s no place else to do it. Sigh…..
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Dec 31, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Cool to see some fellow Nets fans here
I’m not from Jersey, but grew up liking them, because as a kid on LI we had Sportschannel, but not MSG. This is the worst season ever, but with all the cap space next year and (crossing fingers) the chance at John Wall (who looks like he will be a superstar), there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
by Mackey Sasser on Dec 31, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
i'm not a nets fan
but brook lopez is on my fantasy team…guys a BEAST
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Nets Daily
is not a bad site for the Nets btw…
by Mackey Sasser on Dec 31, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
lol everytime the nets lose by less than 10
i feel like a champion
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think hoping for the top pick is too much
we’re the nets, I’m just hoping to not be the first team to finish with the worst record and end up picking 8th, which I don’t even think is possible but with the nets anything is possible.
Plus I don’t think having the first pick matters that much since more than likely Wall is going first, unless we get it and can trade down a little bit for players/more picks I’m fine picking anywhere in the top 7. I think we need depth more than we need stars, we have an awesome young 3-4 core in Harris, Lopez, CDR and Yi/Lee/Williams, but you’re never really sure whether you’ll get an all-world performance from Yi/Lee/Williams or nothing, and then after them we fall off some sort of major cliff talent wise, especially in the front court. And it seems like there’s not really any big men expected to go that high, except extremely raw ones like Ed Davis, and I think we have more than enough wingmen.
Or we’ll get the first pick and trade it for cash.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
sb nation just announced picking up a Nets blog
The news is on the front page.
by cuseindahuse on Dec 31, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's Nets Daily
Which might be the only Nets blog on the Interwebs.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 31, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Happy new year
2010 year of the Mets!
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 31, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Here's to that...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
it could have been worse indeed
imagine if Steve Phillips had been allowed to trade David Wright away
lol i'm pretty sure he tried to trade Reyes as a throw in in one of the packages he offered Wright in
so it could be much much worse
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
An optimistic post.
Not easy for me, but heck, the New Year’s coming up shortly.
UZR overrates Bay’s difficulties on defense, and it turns out he’s really only around 5 runs below average in left. His power holds up, and for the next four years he’s a reliable 30/110 guy with an OBP around .375. The Mets smartly move Bay to 1b after the 2011 season, avoiding a decline in the OF and giving Bay the entire offseason to prepare. He takes to it like a fish to water, and gives us above average defense in 2012 and 2103. Ike Davis becomes a solid regular… for the Cubs. The Davis-Zambrano trade makes the Mets FO look like geniuses as the trio of Santana-Zambrano-Piniero lead to the Mets crushing the Phillies in the 2012 posteason, then shocking the favored Yankees 4-zip in the World Series. Omar Minaya, departing after the 2010 All-Star break, is reported to finally have found peace in a Tibetan Zen monastery.
Davis for Zambrano
sounds like a pretty bad idea to me unless the cubs are taking on a good portion of the money still owed to him. 18 million the next 3 years for a 3 WARish player.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
There are no Zen monastaries in Tibet. Zen is found primarily in Japan, while Tibetan Buddhism is the primary sect of Buddhism in Tibet.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 31, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, in a future where the mets front office looks geniuse
anything is possible
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Get the facts straight! No excuse!!!
Nah, I’m just playing with you. There aren’t any Zen monasteries in Tibet, but that’s okay.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 2, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
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