The all "dont want him" Mets AAOP

by scott from peekskill on Dec 4, 2009 1:37 AM EST

So I think we should name and position a Mets team with guys at each position we don't want to see here. We have tons of fun putting in the AAOP team we want, time for one we don't want.

Of course we are not going to sign all of these guys (oh, god, please no!) and hopefully we sign none of them, but some names have already been floated and brought negative reaction.

So here is my "Oh no...we signed him!?!?!?!" team.

C Bengie Molina Haven't heard anyone actually advocating for him.

1b Adam laroche This guy just does not fill me with hope or inspiration. Surely we can do better.

2b Luis Castillo Ok, ok, he is already on the team but I so wish he was playing for Pittsburgh!

3b Well, we know who will be playing 160+ games here so no need to go there.

SS Alex Cora Yup we signed him but if he plays more than a handful of games here then our season is as shot as Tiger Woods Cadillac SUV

LF Milton Bradley Ugh, I shudder at the thought! But Jose Guillen makes me cringe too. Please sign Holliday.

CF Safe bet Mr. Beltran is here, we hope.

RF Jeff Frangrission Actually I don't mind him too much. He might be useful and is only keeping the seat warm for F-Mart hopefully. Can't think of anyone else I wouldn't like here.

SP Jason Marquis Not the worst signing out there but he had a career year and I just don't know if he will repeat those numbers

SP Joel Pineiro Omar seems smitten with the guy and I think his numbers are pretty much below average.

SP Oliver Perez Oops, one year too late to post him here.

SP Tim Redding Had 5 or 6 reasonable starts last season, but had 10 truly aweful ones too. Maybe his injury effected his start to the season and he will bounce back nicley this season. I hope he bounces back for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but not us.

SP Livan Harnandez Just let him go.

OK your turn.

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Comments

what is the point

Of this post? And where has Omar Minaya said he was smitten over Pineiro? I don’t mean to be an ass but half of your fanposts so far have been dribble.

And if you wanted to actually go all the way with this you coulda traded: Beltran/Wright/Francouer…but I do like the way you mysterious made Johan Santana and the bullpen disappear. This take you 8 seconds?

by RIPShea on Dec 4, 2009 11:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions

If you don't like the posts

Don’t read em.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 4, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I don't really get this either

I thought it was supposed to be the worst team we could put together… but then you have Wright and Beltran… but not Reyes and Santana…. so this really doesn’t make any sense to me.

by Joamiq on Dec 5, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Wright and Beltran

Are there because they will be there all season and not because we don’t want them. The idea is to fill the rest of the holes with guys we DON’T want but CF and 3b probably will be filled all year so why would the Mets sign anyone for those spots.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 6, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions

Livan Hernandez is no longer a New York Met...

hasn’t been so since August.

by boom_roasted on Dec 4, 2009 11:42 AM EST reply actions

That’s not what i meant. I meant let him go elsewhere.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 4, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

I should have added

RF Hideki Matsui Too old to play regular OF. This probably won’t stop the Mets actually looking at him.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 4, 2009 12:39 PM EST reply actions

Scott,

I like the idea that you went with here, though you probably should have added a bit more analysis. Since I grew up in Monticello I have some home town love for you so I’ll offer a list of players I don’t want to see on the 2010 metropolotians.

C – Molina (there has been enough analysis of this)

1b – Dan Murphy/Nick Evans platoon although at one point I was an advocate for this tandem and I want to make sure that we do not block Ike Davis we need to increase our power at the corner positions. Ist base is an easy way to do that. Murphy has a bit of pop (15-20 homeruns) and Evans may have a good deal of power versus lefties but I think that consistently these two will not produce enough power to merit a starting role.

2b – Orlando Hudson, he made 8 million in incentives last year and he is clearly declining. His range is decreasing and his bat is only slightly more valuable then Castillo. We need to improve our infield defense but signing O-dog to a 3-4 year good money deal is not the answer.

SS (back-up) Cora too late

3b (back-up) We really should sign a good utility player that can get Wright some days off.

RF Francouer, i never know if I spelled his name right? That’s how much I hate him.

CF Carlos Beltran, now I don’t want to trade Beltran but I am very worried about his knees. I think he is the best center fielder in baseball but I would switch him to a corner spot to try to increase his longevity although this would decrease his WAR.

LF Jason Bay, he has bad defense he is a streaky hitter and he is going to make a ton of money this year.

SP – Rich Harden, now Rich is a great pitcher who has filthy stuff and can really strike people out, but he also has a high walk rate and hasn’t been very durable. All that means is that he will make the bullpen pitch lots of innings. One guy in your rotation that can’t go 6 innings regularly is not that bad, three guys that can’t go 6 regularly (Perez, Harden, and Maine) is a recipe for disaster. I do not want to see Brett “wife beating” Myers on the mets either.

RP – I can’t quickly think of anyone that I wouldn’t want, but I’m sure there are some. But I don’t want to play anyone over 4 million a year actually more like 3 and I’d only want to pay Darren Oliver that much.

by Delgado on Dec 4, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions

Great Idea

I agree with most of your analysis, thought he one guy I really want who you mentioned is Pineiro, who I’m convinced has turned a corner with the new sinker, and will be very good value.

My team I don’t want:

1B David Wright – moved to 1B, where he might be only an average player, in order to sign an inferior third baseman
2B Craig Counsel – the Mets somehow find a taker for Castillo, only to replace him with a player who is 5 years older. They give him 3 years, with a vesting option for a 4th.
SS Adam Everett – stung by backlash on the blogosphere, the Mets find a way to void the recent Alex Cora deal, and instead sign Everett, saving $1M. After Reyes goes down with a season ending hamstring pull in spring training, those bloggers are now forced to watch the inferior Everett actually play every day.
3B Brandon Inge – this is exactly the kind of Grisonny guy I would hate to see replace Wright. Hey, he had 27 HR and 84 RBI last year!
LF Jose Guillen – acquired for Castillo
CF Cory Sullivan – takes over after Beltran also lands on the DL
RF Jeff Francoeur – enough said.
CA Bengi Molina

SP Johan Santana – (OK, I can’t dream up injuries for every good player)
SP Jason Marquis – the Mets bring in a #4 as a #2.
SP Oliver Perez – they continue wishing him to be what they paid him as
SP Carl Pavano – another waste of money
SP Tim Redding

by acerimusdux on Dec 5, 2009 12:44 AM EST reply actions

Excellent Post!

I am concerned by players that have their “career year” in their walk year. Why is it that a player performs best when money is on the line? Now Pineiro is probably looking for a multi-year biggish dollar contract and I am not convinced he will not regress to his mean.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 5, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions

In general yes

I’m wary about career years. But pitchers can be different. A genuine breakthrough can occur at most any age, if a pitcher adds a new pitch or otherwise improves his stuff or approach significantly. In Pineiro’s case, being “only” 30 this year makes him even on the young side as free agents go, and if you believe the improvement is for real, it looks like you could get Derek Lowe in-his-prime type production for alot less than the Braves are paying an over the hill Derek Lowe.

See
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-pinerios-newfound-groundball-success-sustainable

Pineiro had the lowest walk rate in the NL and the highest GB/FB rate in baseball last year. He had the 14th best FIP. He also had the 7th best fastball in effectiveness (linear weights runs per 100 pitches).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2009&month=0

That sinker of his has somehow turned into an elite pitch. And he’s always had a pretty good curve. I expect the walk rate to regress some, but he still stays an easy sub 4.00 ERA guy for the near future, and should be a bargain as some won’t believe until he does it another year or two because of the relatively low strikeout rate.

by acerimusdux on Dec 5, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Everett actually playing every day at shortstop?

It might be bad, but it’s better than what we have, which right now is Alex (blah) Cora.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 5, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not really

I’d take Cora over Everett. Splitting hairs maybe, but Cora is easily the better bat. They’ve been about the same overall value the last 3 years, just because of Everett’s better glove, but I have less faith in Everett’s defense holding up at this stage. I think he’s even more in decline than Cora.

Cora had a .288 wOBA even playing hurt most of last year. I think he can bounce back to about a .300 wOBA. I expect Everett to be around a .270 wOBA. Per Baseball-Reference, Cora’s neutralized OPS for the last 3 years is .681, Everett’s is .610.

by acerimusdux on Dec 5, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

even if that's true

an Adam Everett contract wouldn’t cost $2 mil, it would barely cost more than league minimum.
Everett plays shortstop almost exclusively, and he had an 8.9 UZR last year in only 116 games. I’d hardly call that “decline”.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 5, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

Everett has never posted a UZR/150 under 11.2

Why would you think his defense would decline?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Dec 5, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

Everett vs Cora

Projected wOBA
Everett- .271
Cora- .290

Projected UZR/150
Everett- 12
Cora- -1

It’s close, but Everett is slightly better

by EtSuKe on Dec 6, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

and again, the costs are vitally important.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Dec 6, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

$1.55M he signed for

So it turned out the costs weren’t that different.

On the projection above, part of the point is that it’s too close to make any meaningful distinctions with just these stats. I love all these advanced metrics, but they really aren’t precise enough to treat them as accurate to within a quarter of a win. and that’s even more true when you are using them to project the future, rather than to look at the past. And $1M in these is only worth about a quarter of a win, 2.4 runs.

As for the UZR projections, if you use Steve Sommer’s projection, which in addition to three years UZR data (weighted 5/4/3), incorporates ratings from the fans scouting report, the projection for Everett is only +5.7, one of the biggest differences between the two popular UZR projections.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/4/1181838/comparision-of-uzr-150-projections

He had also been a bit below average in total zone in a small sample in 2008. The 2009 total zone hadn’t been updated yet last I looked, but it’s there now and has him back above average, so he looks a bit better now:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/everead01-field.shtml

On the whole though, the offensive projections just seem more reliable to me. If you have a reliable difference of 20 points of wOBA, that’s worth around 10 runs. Everett may well be at least 10 runs better defensively. But between an offensive projection which doesn’t know Cora had two injured thumbs last season, and a defensive projection which doesn’t know that people who actually saw him play seem to have seen a decline in his skills over the last two seasons (per the fan scouting report), I’d just as soon spend the extra half million (worth about 1.2 runs in the FA market) on the better bat.

by acerimusdux on Dec 7, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions