The Mets Sign Henry Blanco
So, the Mets signed Hank Blank to a 1-year $1.5 million contract yesterday. The reaction was predictable--déjà vu all over again. And while giving a 38-year-old backup catcher a $1.5MM contract has shades of the Alex Cora deal; remember some key differences between Cora and Blanco that I have outlined in this chart:
Pretty clearly, the Mets are making a conscientious effort to sign their backups earlier this year. Probably realizing their bench depth has lacked in the past few seasons, whoever is running the team has to decided to leverage their financial advantage to handpick their bench players this season. We speculate, as fans, that no other organization could possibly have wanted Alex Cora or Henry Blanco for that much money, which could be true, but maybe beside the point. After I complained last season that the Mets don't pay attention to who they put on their bench, the Mets went out and got one of the better backup catchers in baseball.
But the Cora deal didn't make financial sense! Surprise, the Mets don't evaluate major league talent well, what a revelation. That doesn't change the reality that, instead of signing Cora and Cory Sullivan in late January, the Mets are bidding in late November, early December on players that might not make the major league roster. It's a change, and I think it's a good one, Henry Blanco being the first good thing to come from it.
Whether or not this leads to the team to sign anymore decent bench players, who knows, I don't trust them to do anything right. In theory, however, I like this strategy. Considering how much I've stressed the importance of good bench players, big-market teams would probably do well to spend a few extra million to get the best backups. When we say Player X could be easily replaced by some minor leaguer, and is thus not worth his contract, it's usually because Player X stinks, not because all benches should be built from players in the minor leagues. As evidenced by the past few seasons, the Mets simply don't have the talent to build a bench from the minors.
Who, right now, can step in from the Mets system to replace Blanco's production as the backup? Josh Thole? The team clearly wants him to develop more in AAA, and I don't blame them. Thole's skillset doesn't translate well to backup duties anyway. In a small amount of PA, his BABIP-fueled offense could be very erratic, and he doesn't have the fielding ability to carry a slumping bat off the bench. Omir Santos? No. Omir Santos' career year offensively last year was below the production of the 37-year-old Blanco. Defensively, Blanco is in a whole different universe than Santos. Santos demonstrated good receiving skills, but a pretty weak arm, and erratic plate-blocking ability. Blanco is the whole package. Santos also hit nothing but fastballs last year, which isn't exactly the hardest thing for opposing pitchers to adapt to. Blanco has a more stable offensive skill-set, with his good plate discipline.
Focusing more on Blanco, he should be well worth $1.5MM, even if he only gets ~150 PA. Bill James' system projects a .284 wOBA, and while I usually find James projections too optimistic, that seems reasonable, a .30 point regression from last season. Defensively, he's probably +10-20 run catcher per 150. Last season, using the best catcher defense estimates available, he was about ~2 WAR ($8MM-$10MM value) for the Pads in 232 PA. He's like the Adam Everett of catchers.
I like this deal, and I like Blanco. Really, it's the best value signing the Mets have made in a long time. I understand the feeling that it's just another big contract for an old player, but that's not really the case here. We paid our last backup catcher, Ramon Castro, $2 million, and Blanco is just as good and certainly more durable.
0 recs |
22 comments
|
Comments
In Greek
Alex Cora is roughly “Maiden who Withstands Against Men.”
Alexander = To Push Back + Men
Cora = Maiden
by letsgocyclones on Dec 4, 2009 7:28 AM EST up reply actions
Keep talking, Sam.
You’re backing me off the ledge…
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
the signing still bothers me
i don’t doubt that blanco could easily be worth the $1.5 million he’ll be paid. but the move seems to be an obvious precursor to a molina signing. here’s a fictional conversation that i imagine would explain omar’s thought process.
omar: i’m going to sign molina to a contract cause he’s awesome at offense (20 homeruns!). but he’s not so great at defense, and i heard that’s kinda important. so let’s go out and get the best defensive catcher on the market right away. and if we have to overpay a little bit, that’s okay cause we’re getting such a great deal on molina ($6 million per season for 20 homers!)
jeff wilpon: do you think it would be possible to somehow merge these two humans into one super-catcher?
omar: we could throw our remaining resources at trying to create that science, jeff. but i think – and i could be wrong about this – we might be better off spending that money on signing another starting pitcher and LF.
jeff wilpon: that’s why i pay you the big bucks! best gm in baseball.
I absolutely agree with your assessment. I liked the Blanco signing, but I still wonder about Omir Santos. Where does he go? Thole needs to play a lot in AAA, so splitting time with Santos does not make sense. I also think Santos is better than being a back-up minor league catcher. Factoring in Coste’s signing leads one to wonder if the Mets are going to carry three catchers. Coste could play back-up first base, but do you really want him to? Santos could pinch hit rather well considering his short stroke, but pinch hitters also occasionally play the field, and there is no room for him.
I would assume a trade is on the horizon for Santos.
According to his minor league numbers Santos is not a major league catcher.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if Omar realizes it, but with the Blanco signing he might have done just that. A good GM recognizes when a ballplayer played over his head and doesn’t waste a year relearning what is self-evident.
Santos is an excellent sell-high guy. Against the right GM who thinks Santos is a ML catcher you might get something of real value back.
by SeanSchirmer on Dec 4, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough, Sam
I think the problem here is that what we’re seeing right now is a lot of the game’s better GM’s jumping all over some early market bargains. The Rays acquiring Shoppach for nothing, Andruw Jones signing with the White Sox for nothing, the Braves signing Billy Wagner to a one year deal, the A’s acquiring Jake Fox, the Red Sox snagging Tug Hulett for nothing, and all the while Omar is handing out significant contracts to bench players. It seems like he’s missing out on what might be the best part of this year’s market from a buyers standpoint. Its great if he builds a quality bench and all, but if he then goes and signs Bengie Molina, Orlando Hudson, and Joel Piniero, he’ll be overpaying for three relatively insubstantial upgrades later on when he could be spending virtually nothing now, getting just as much talent, and saving the money for upgrades that are substantial later on. If he passes on Molina and still signs Holliday, I’ll gladly eat these words, but I’m really worried that’s not the direction he’s going.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 4, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Also
Having one of the first few Rule V picks is a great way to fill out your bench with a non-generic and incredibly cheap minor league talent. What a waste it would be if he picks up some high upside arm and then decides to return the guy when he doesn’t make the team out of ST.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 4, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions
A few things
CHONE projects a .269 wOBA for Blanco. Blanco has only had 324 PAs the last 2 years. That is not enough to say he has changed or is a decent hitter now. His career wOBA is .284 and he is 38 year old. Its much more likely he gets worse than gets better. He is certainly a great defensive catcher, but even if you set his defense at 15 runs /150 (which I don’t think you should) and use CHONE’s wOBA, over 300 PAs he projects for .6 WAR. It is not a horrible deal, but I don’t think it is a good use of money when we have Santos, Coste, and Thole and are looking for another catcher. Why pick up a bench player before the non-tender deadline and so early into free agency if you aren’t getting a great deal, especially for a backup?
but are there better deal available?
I don’t care if on a 1 win to 4.4 million scale he is worth it. It is compared to the market and our current roster. Is he enough of upgrade over Santos/Thole/Coste/Maybe Someone Else to deserve 1.5?
also .6 WAR was assuming
300 PAs (which he hasn’t had since 2004) and a +15 defense, which I think is too much, especially considering his age.
you made up that estimate
and the thing is whatever wOBA you project him for is a lot less likely to stabilize in the smaller sample size. That’s why I’d take the defensively superior player. Yea he’s probably not the perfect contract considering the market, but the Mets clearly have no sense of the market at this point.
I think it's a lot better than what they could of done.
But it still doesn’t solve any real holes, and it’s still not a great contrac
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
i didn't make it up
I used the method i said in my fanpost. I took the wOBA to runs, defense, positional, and replacement for a full season (700 PA or 162 games) times (projected PA/700)
Why did Coste get a spot on the 40-man, btw? Anyone know?
I may be having a brain cramp, but he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy you want to put on the 40 if you don’t have to.

by 





























