Adam Dunn Signs With Nationals

I think most of us had given up hope of Omar signing Dunn, but now it's definitely not a possibility. With Abreu signing today as well, it looks like it's Manny or bust (i.e. Murphy/Tatis) for LF.

9 months ago englishgrey 85 comments 0 recs |

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Great, now he can crank homers out of Citi Field nine games a year for the wrong team.

I’m curious to see how much he’s getting from them.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Feb 11, 2009 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Whiff!

4.5 : 1 – SO : HR ratio for career.
I’ll look forward to way more SO’s than HR’s at Citi.
Silly comparison? Perhaps.
Factual? Indeed.

Why I drink Jim Beam
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMdiRkiYREU

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Feb 11, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if you consider strikeouts worse than any other out

i guess….but since they’re not worse than any other out, you have to look at OBP…but whatever

by gogomets on Feb 11, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

At least the Braves didn’t sign him

by ams258 on Feb 11, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

In hindsight

would it have been a terrible idea to decline the Delgado option and sign Dunn?

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

declining the option would have cost the mets $4 million. add that to whatever dunn will make with the nats (probably $5-6 million), and it would have cost the mets a total of $9-10 million to sign dunn. delgado cost $12 million for 2009. so the mets might have saved a couple of million dollars for essentially the same amount of offensive production (their OPS+ last year were very similar). however, delgado is a better defensive player (dunn is career -11.3 UZR/150 at 1b; delgado is -4.0 UZR/150), so maybe delgado makes up his extra cost there.

by englishgrey on Feb 11, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like $20 million over two years

So releasing Delgado and signing Dunn would have cost the Mets $14 million this year, more than the $12 million Delgado is making.

by Eric Simon on Feb 11, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

that seems like a lot from what i had been hearing, and especially how close to spring training we are. i was expecting something more along the lines of 1 year/$8 mil. 2 for $20 mil is very surprising. i wouldnt have wanted to sign dunn to that contract.

"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez

by OSUmets on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a lot

Guess the Nats had to overpay a bit. No one ever accused Jim Bowden of being a genius.

OTOH, I’d still take him in LF for that price, heh.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh I'm not sure I would

His defense is pretty horrendus, and he’s only projected to be like a 1.5 WAR player this year. And as good as his bat is his defense at first is supposedly even worse so I’m not sure it would have been worth it even to move him to first next year.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltran might cover for him a bit in the OF

But yeah. I basically just love Dunn.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

But remember that the Mets will need to pay someone to play 1B next year, too. That was really my thinking.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not neccessarily

Their plan seems to be Murphy at 1st and Martinez in lf.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know that's probably their plan

And F-Mart will need to play but I think many of us agree that Murphy at 1B isn’t a terrific option.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I agree

But I’m saying they don’t need to, or at least don’t plan on, paying anyone new to play 1b in 2010.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but the mets had to make this decision in november

it would have been difficult for them to predict that dunn would only sign a 2-year/$20 million dollar deal this year. and it’s even harder for them to predict what the market will be like next year, or if murphy will develop into a viable 1b option. so considering all those variables, i think delgado was the safest choice.

by englishgrey on Feb 11, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hence the "in hindsight"

Everyone agreed the Mets had to pick up the Delgado option. Of course no one knew how the market would shake out.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But

I feel pretty safe betting the house that Murphy’s bat won’t play at 1B.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who knows.

Did the Red Sox ever think Youkilis’s bat would play at 1B? Not saying Murphy is going to turn into Youk, but my point is that you don’t know how he is going to develop. He’s a pretty big kid and could develop some power.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh Youk plays insane defense

And his line last year was a little bit fluky, a huge increase in his hr/fb numbers. Not to mention he was 29 when he finally developed 1b power, so Murphy would have a ways to go, and you can afford to live with that kind of offense when you have Big Papi and Manny in the middle of your line-up.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh

Seems foolish to assign 1B to someone who has shown little power, who frankly was probably a BABIP wonder last year, and who you “don’t know how he is going to develop.” But that’s just me. I like the Hammer as much as the next guy, but come on.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

we’re the only ones “assigning” 1B right now. We have no idea what their plans are. Plus, they have an entire season to see gauge how Murphy may turn out.

And, would you be more comfortable with Murphy at 1B with a middle of the order of Wright, Beltran, and Holliday?

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We're not really the only ones assigning him to 1b

There’s been reports, that that is the front offices plans. And considering the mets don’t want to go over the luxury tax and we’re going to have 13 million in increases in contracts next year, and we’re going to have several positions to fill, I don’t really see how we could afford Holliday. Unless he bombs in Oakland/the market gets worse, and if that’s the case would we even want him with Citi’s dimensions?

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

fair point

forgot we were in hypothetical mode

by englishgrey on Feb 11, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if they can't predict what the market will be like next year

They can see how the available free agents will be. Delgado and Adam Laroche. And I agree with jason that it seems doubtful Murphy is suddenly develop a bat for first base.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't want to overstate the point

since emotions can run hot in times like these, but if the Queens DA doesn’t INDICT Omar by the end of the week for fiduciary negligence and crimes against the PUBLIC trust, it will reveal the entire system of capitalism, democracy, and American jurisprudence as the biggest FRAUD since the Piltdown Man.

by mmxii on Feb 11, 2009 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh look

another player who could’ve improved the Mets signing with a division rival.

by JoshNY on Feb 11, 2009 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a stretch

to call the National a ‘rival’

by cjmulrain on Feb 11, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I think it's safe to say this isn't going to turn them into contenders for the division

But they certainly have a say in how the division turns out.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

their offense could be nice

but Stephen Strasburg is already their best pitcher, heh.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

true

I was just trying to be humorous

by cjmulrain on Feb 11, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

anyone notice PECOTA project the nats to finish 4th with 79 wins?

maybe with the addition of dunn and some luck they could finish above .500?

by englishgrey on Feb 11, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They haven't factored in defense yet though

And I’m pretty sure the nats have been horrible defensively.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so those standings are going to be updated?

by englishgrey on Feb 11, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, they should be in the next iteration

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Dunn replaces Willie Harris...

No.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Feb 11, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Willie Harris is the truth

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone look up

how much of an upgrade Dunn would be over the Tatis/Murphy platoon taking into account defensive projections as well?

BP already projects the Mets to be 3rd in the NL in runs scores, so IMO, adding Dunn to replace Tatis/Murphy might only be a negligible upgrade.

Adding Manny, however, would be a different story altogether.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think prospectus is factoring in defense yet

But Chone only projects Dunn to be like a 1.5 WAR player, where as they project Murphy to be like 1.3 WAR player IF his defense remains average. So the upgrade would be negligble. On the other hand it’s not just about the upgrade in lf there would also be a considerable upgrade on the bench. Basically you’d be bumping guys like Sullivan and, God willing, Marlon Anderson, off the end of the bench which is a big difference.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At most, one bench guy goes bye-bye

Of course Tatis would go right to the bench, but I doubt Murphy would be a bench guy. Young kid like him needs ABs and he would be sent to Buffalo.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually meant to write about that

But then apparently forgot. In theory, or at least in my dreams, Murphy could go to Buffalo and learn to play 2b. If he was successful the value he’d provide as a long-term second basemen under control cheaply for us would be huge.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great point.

If one of the motivations for signing someone like Dunn would be to allow Murphy to get some PT at 2B in Buffalo, then I would be all for that.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually Chone projects Murphy to be a 1.1 player if his defense remains average

My mistake.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I need some educating on Chone.

What kind of a scale are we working with? How great is the difference between 1.5 and 1.1?

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wins are wins

adding runs helps, even though the Mets are projected to score a lot of runs. Not sure how the projections shake out, but I don’t expect Murphy to replicate his average defense, or either Tatis or Murphy to replicate their offense – and I think the projections agree with that, mostly. There’s also the matter of the bench and 1B next year.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But isn't the argument over here always about efficient allocation of resources?

How efficient is it to pay Dunn 10 MM per year when you already have the projected 3rd highest scoring offense and he only represents a .2 WAR upgrade over Murphy, according to CHONE, as Gina posted above.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

but you’re setting up a strawman of sorts. Having the projected 3rd highest scoring offense doesn’t mean you just stop adding offense. There are wins to be had, whether it’s through hitting or pitching.

And I’m also saying what I’m saying in the context of needing a real 1B next year. And I agree, $10 million per might be a bit much in this market.

But, you’re right that the cost savings in LF are significant. So there’s that.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I mostly agree with you.

I’m not saying they should stop adding offense, but I’m not so sure that Dunn is worth it. Like I said above, if we were talking Manny, or even Abreu, who would be cheaper than Dunn and plays much better defense, I would be all for it.

I understand the concern over 1B for next year and beyond, but I don’t think Dunn is the answer there either. Why lock yourself into someone like Dunn and risk Murphy, Evans, or Davis really blossoming this year. Plus, the way the market is going, teams might be unloading salaries during the season, which would allow the Mets to swoop in.

In short, I don’t think Dunn is the kind of player that you want to lock up long term. Believe me, I like Dunn and think he is generally underrated, but he is also a very limited player, so I try to keep Dunn’s ability in perspective.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is even if teams are unloading salaries

Do we really have the pieces to move? I feel like our farm system really can’t take many more hits and to get any decent player we’d have to give up like 3-4+ prospects, at least?

And considering how close we are to the lt and that we apparently can’t afford to even offer abreu 5 million per and we’re trying to cut Castro’s 2.5 million would we even be interested in those contracts being moved? The Wilpons seem pretty serious about not going over the luxury tax.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boils down to

certainties and unknowns for me. Everything you’re arguing is premised on – “well, maybe so and so will happen.”

Abreu is the worst defensive OF in baseball.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It depends what metric you look at

I think Burrel is by far the worst in +/-, with Ibanez close to him.UZR had Hawpe as the worst overall outfielder with Dunn in 2nd, but the difference between Dunn and Hawpe was almost the difference between Dunn and average. And I think PMR had Dunn as just below average.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Abreu was -24 in RF last year according to Dewan

Hawpe was way worse, to be fair. Burrell -20 in LF. Apparently Brad Hawpe is just disgustingly awful at D and no one noticed.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Put Abreu in left and he's at least as good defensively as Burrell.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

he’s never played the position before, and LF still has a wall.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Put it this way:

Abreu would be the last outfielder you’d want to make a close to the wall catch, but he has a good arm and because he doesn’t extend himself for those catches at the wall, he’s better at holds than most. He’s able to keep people from extra bases on occasion. If we had him, I’d keep Church in RF over Abreu, though.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Church is 100x the outfielder Abreu is, so yeah

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No way is Abreu the worst.

Maybe bad, but not the worst by any stretch of the imagination I would think. He has a good arm, if I remember correctly.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Abreu

is shockingly terrible at defense.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brad Hawpe is worse.

But Abreu is bad, I agree. But he’s not AWFUL, especially if you put him in left, and his arm is undervalued by these metrics.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

he is AWFUL. Not as awful as Hawpe, apparently. Range is so much more important than arm.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd put Abreu in any defensive position over Dunn.

Just going by defense, mind you.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is that the thinking behind the Mets' inaction?

That Dunn and Abreu are terrible outfielders? Because I think both would more than compensate on offense. They both signed at a bargain price that the Mets could have easily trumped. I’m so frustrated.

"One of the nice things about baseball is that there are no rules you can't break." - Jim Bouton

by Prince on Feb 11, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think 20/2 is a bargain for Dunn

I’d say it’s a fair price for him.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

According to fangraphs

Dunn was worth $11.3m in 2007, but only $5.9 in 2008. His hitting and defense both dipped a bit. $20m over 2 is probably fair all things considered.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I was referring more to Abreu

$5 million a year?! Gimme a break.

"One of the nice things about baseball is that there are no rules you can't break." - Jim Bouton

by Prince on Feb 11, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Certainties and Unknowns

The flip side of that argument is that you know Dunn’s ceiling. There is no upside with him. I’m sorry, but Dunn just isn’t worth locking into a long term deal.

by SQUAD on Feb 11, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

But his offensive ceiling is pretty high and he should be good for at least another 2 or 3 years of 40 homers, .900 OPS production. I never said I’d want to sign him for any longer than that. Like Gina said, the 1B options for next year are pretty slim – just Laroche or an in-house guy (Delgado, Murphy, Evans, etc), unless someone better comes along in a trade. Sign Dunn for a couple years and maybe you’re in play for Pujols should he become a free agent.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

10M a year for two years is a bit high and I can’t be quite as upset as I thought I would be given Dunn’s clearly substandard glove work at any position. On the other hand, Abreu is getting only 5M for one year from the Angels which is a joke. Omar should have pounced there methinks.

by Endys Game on Feb 11, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I mostly agree with Endy I'm not sure how I feel for that price but

(And I know we have to play 2009 first) I do get antsy trying to figure out what their long-term plan to replace Delgado’s bat is.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How many outfielders do the Nationals need?!?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it may not matter

my guess is they think Nick Johnson is done and that Dunn will get major time at first base. If that is wrong, then they are going to have to make another move. Why do I have a strange feeling that Lastings could be dealt and maybe even wind up back with the Mets??. Or perhaps they will cut the insane entity known as Elijah Dukes.

by Endys Game on Feb 11, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crazy man, indeed.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Feb 11, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't cut that talent.

by Sokojoe on Feb 11, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

perhaps not

but he better start showing results soon or his act will have worn thin. I have littile sympathy for a man who not only threatens to kill the mother of his children but the kids as well.

by Endys Game on Feb 11, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was pretty awesome before his injury

But he sounds like a disgusting human being. He’s the only current athlete I can think of that I’d actually root for to fail.

by Gina on Feb 11, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh, I don't know

I wanted Mike Hampton to fail, whereas it’d be nice if Dukes could turn around his life and grow the hell up, for his own sake and for his kids. He’s done some pretty bad thuggish things but he’s still a kid himself.

by jasondg on Feb 11, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs